| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | 
Speaker Mike Johnson has urged House Republicans to pass the compromise FISA reauthorization at hand. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | INCOMING — A Ukraine aid bill (details very much TBA) is expected to come to the House floor for a vote next week, multiple outlets are reporting today. If it passes, the legislation could provide a crucial lifeline for Kyiv’s war to repel Russia — and the far-right revolt against Speaker MIKE JOHNSON could boil over. But first Johnson has a different imbroglio on his hands: A procedural vote for the reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act is expected to fail on the House floor today, as a handful Freedom Caucus members derail the process over privacy concerns. Reps. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.), ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.) and now TIM BURCHETT (R-Tenn.) have all said they’ll vote against the rule, after a monthslong debate on the Hill over the federal government’s spy powers. Three would be enough to tank it, and others have said they’re undecided. With FISA expiration barely a week away, the congressional fight regarding warrantless national security surveillance of foreigners — which can sweep up Americans who talk to them — is coming to a head. The FBI and DOJ argue that the authorities are crucial for law enforcement. Johnson has urged House Republicans to pass the FISA reauthorization at hand, which includes dozens of reforms. This would be the third time that House efforts to pass the bill have run aground. Johnson warned today — publicly and in the GOP conference meeting — that a failure would mean capitulation to the Senate, which would pass a clean reauthorization and force the House to swallow it. But he was thrown a curveball from DONALD TRUMP, who weighed in vigorously this morning: “KILL FISA,” he posted on Truth Social, “IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME, AND MANY OTHERS.” Though this issue scrambles the typical partisan lines — Republican opponents are joined by some progressive Democrats who object to the surveillance — no Dems are expected to vote for the rule, per NBC. With Johnson’s margin so small, the House may not even reach the floor vote on the compromise reauthorization bill. And Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), who met with Johnson today, continues to dangle an imminent motion to vacate over both Ukraine and FISA frustrations. Greene told reporters afterward that she didn’t lay out any red lines, but “right now he does not have my support.” VEEPSTAKES — CORNEL WEST has tapped MELINA ABDULLAH, a college professor and Black Lives Matter activist leader in LA, as his running mate. Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from The National Association of REALTORS®: We don’t only support fair housing initiatives; we help see them through. From advocating to strengthen fair housing requirements in real estate licensure to having a robust code of ethics to hold ourselves accountable, our NAR members actively champion fair housing for all. Because it’s not just the law, it’s the right thing to do. Learn more. | | | INFLATION NATION — A recent run of economic news that was good for both the country and President JOE BIDEN’s reelection bid hit a rough patch today, as the latest inflation report showed prices running hotter than expected. In March, the consumer price index bumped up from 3.2% annually to 3.5% — higher than economists had predicted, and heading in the wrong direction from the Fed’s 2% goal. Stripping out food and fuels, core CPI held steady at 3.8%. Gas, rent and car insurance (which has skyrocketed) pushed the overall inflation numbers higher. As WaPo’s Heather Long notes, other costs that have really surged in the past year include home health care for seniors, baby formula and auto repairs. Today’s surprising data is another indicator that the U.S. economy is proving hard to tame — for better and for worse. Though the Fed’s sustained higher interest rates haven’t come close to triggering a recession, and inflation is way down from its peak, erasing its final vestiges is quite difficult for policymakers. The improvements of last year have yielded to inflation stasis in 2024. Stock markets groaned on the news of the latest CPI report, and analysts predicted that any rate cut from the central bank will be further postponed. “[T]hat likely means that Biden will have to live with high interest rates well into an election year,” Victoria Guida writes. The L.A. Times’ Don Lee lays out starkly why consumers and voters are still feeling so bad about high prices: Compared to just four years ago before the pandemic hit, prices now are 50% higher for eggs, 30% higher for bread and electricity, and 20% higher for rent and milk. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former Indiana Gov. MITCH DANIELS will receive the 2024 Gerald R. Ford Medal for Distinguished Public Service after Trump critic LIZ CHENEY was rejected for the award because the board of the Ford Presidential Foundation was worried that Trump would retaliate against the organization if he’s reelected, Daniel Lippman reports. The foundation has not publicly announced that Daniels will be getting the award, but Lippman obtained an email from foundation executive director GLEAVES WHITNEY to the trustees announcing that the organization “will be conferring our foundation’s highest award on Governor Daniels following our board meeting in Washington D.C. on Monday, June 3, 2024, at the Willard Hotel.” The award comes after two other people turned down the prize, and there was an extended back and forth about whether giving Cheney the award would jeopardize the foundation’s tax-exempt status, according to a resignation letter that photographer and foundation trustee DAVID HUME KENNERLY wrote yesterday that Playbook broke this morning. Daniels and the foundation did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Adam Wren contributed reporting for this item
| | | | | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Larry Hogan landed a major fundraising haul in his bid to flip a Maryland Senate seat. | Scott Olson/Getty Images | 1. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Republican LARRY HOGAN hauled in $3.1 million for his Maryland Senate bid in barely half of the first quarter of the year, after he announced his campaign Feb. 9. His campaign said the total set a record for any federal candidate’s quarterly fundraising in Maryland history — and that’s despite Hogan having only 51 days to do it. (h/t Daniel Lippman) In other big Q1 announcements, Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) landed a whopping $9.7 million for his reelection bid, Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser scooped. He ended the quarter with $15.1 million on hand across his personal, NRSC and state party fundraising committees. … Rep. CHRIS DELUZIO (D-Pa.) raised $750,000 and has $1.45 million on hand. The presidential cash dash: Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS said in private that he intends to help Trump’s campaign with fundraising, NBC’s Matt Dixon and CNBC’s Brian Schwartz scooped. 2. IMMIGRATION FILES: Though the decision isn’t final yet, Biden is likely to pull the trigger by month’s end on 212(f), Axios’ Mike Allen, Hans Nichols and Stef Kight report. That’s the executive authority, favored by Trump, that would massively restrict migrants’ ability to claim asylum at the southern border — a significant and contested anti-immigration move. “We’re told there’s a fierce debate internally about the legality and politics of a Trump-like lockdown,” they write. “But Biden, briefed on polls of rising voter anger, wants a dramatic step.” At the other end of the journey, AP’s Giovanna Dell’Orto reports from Comitancillo, Guatemala, on the young Guatemalans who now make up the largest group of unaccompanied minors crossing the border illegally. These children and teenagers, largely indigenous people from Guatemala’s impoverished highlands, keep trying to make it to the U.S. despite some mass tragedies because they see no opportunity at home. 3. THE TIKTOK CAMPAIGN: “Biden’s strategy to reach tuned-out voters: Content over crowds,” by NBC’s Mike Memoli and Nnamdi Egwuonwu: “[R]ight now, rally turnout among the die-hards is less important to [the campaign] than the disengaged voters who have soured on Biden’s presidency and could decide the election. And the campaign is focused on reaching them with digital content, especially content produced outside Washington that showcases personal connections and Biden’s empathetic side. Biden’s campaign hopes to reach those people through their own social media and what is known as relational organizing.” 4. SPOILER ALERT: Republicans are laying the groundwork to peel votes away from Biden by elevating third-party candidates, NYT’s Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman, Shane Goldmacher and Rebecca Davis O’Brien report. Both Biden and Trump think that a larger field benefits Trump, and pro-Trump dark-money groups could give the possible spoilers a boost. Among Trump allies’ recent and potential efforts:
- Highlighting Kennedy’s and JILL STEIN’s environmentalism.
- Emphasizing Biden’s Israel record to Muslim voters in Michigan.
- Urging the Libertarian Party to focus on attacking Biden, via RICHARD GRENELL.
- Offering ballot-access help to Stein and West, as SCOTT PRESLER did.
Notable quotable, from STEVE BANNON: “No Republican knows that oil production under Biden is higher than ever. But Jill Stein’s people do.” Democrats understand the threat, and some of them — including JAMES CARVILLE — are now working to dig up dirt on NICOLE SHANAHAN, Kennedy’s running mate, reports Semafor’s Reed Albergotti. They’re especially interested in the Silicon Valley gossip about her marriages, including to SERGEY BRIN. On the other hand, Kennedy of late has voiced some pretty MAGA-sounding rhetoric on everything from Jan. 6 prosecutions to immigration, Axios’ Alex Thompson and Hans Nichols note.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | 5. TAX BILL LATEST: “‘On life support’: Senate Republicans are prepared to sink the child tax credit bill,” by NBC’s Sahil Kapur: “Senate Republicans are inching closer to burying a bipartisan bill to expand the child tax credit and provide breaks for businesses, issuing a series of demands that would most likely disrupt the coalition that enabled it to pass the House. … [Senate Finance ranking member MIKE] CRAPO told NBC News on Tuesday that he still has problems with ‘a number’ of provisions.” 6. NUCLEAR FALLOUT: “Nuclear deal in tatters, Iran edges close to weapons capability,” by WaPo’s Joby Warrick in Vienna: “Iran [is blowing] past the guardrails of the Iran nuclear accord. Six years after the Trump administration’s controversial decision to withdraw from the pact, the restraints have fallen away, one by one, leaving Iran closer to nuclear weapons capability than at any time in the country’s history … [T]he emerging view is one of Iran advancing slowly but confidently, accumulating the means for a future weapon while making no overt move to build one.” 7. THE TRUMP TRIAL: As Trump prepares to face his first criminal trial next week, stemming from hush-money payments he allegedly made during the 2016 election to cover up an affair with a porn star, there are fresh signs of political peril for him. A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that , Jason Lange reports. Sixty-four percent of registered voters say the charges Trump faces are “somewhat serious” or worse, including two-fifths of Republicans and most independents. Trump has pleaded not guilty and denies wrongdoing. NYT’s Jesse McKinley, Kate Christobek and Maggie Haberman also have an interesting look at the types of jurors each side will prefer. 8. CAMPAIGN INFRASTRUCTURE: “Trump chases Black support, but struggles to build an organization,” by Semafor’s Kadia Goba: “The campaign hired DEREK SILVER as its executive director in charge of coalitions from last October until March 2024, according to his LinkedIn. Two sources familiar with his departure told Semafor he left abruptly in early March … Trump has also already proven he can make some inroads outside the typically white GOP base … But there’s also increasing doubt about the party’s ability to capitalize on these opportunities amid concerns about funding, organization, and basic competence.” Related read: “Shuttered GOP outreach center now home to shop selling sex toys,” by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, Tia Mitchell, Patricia Murphy and Adam Van Brimmer 9. WHAT THE ABORTION ABORTION RULING MEANS: After the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that a 19th-century near-total abortion ban can go into effect, there’s plenty of chatter about how the state’s politics might be upended. WaPo writes that Republicans are on the defensive and Democrats spy an opening: Some voters are indicating to reporters that abortion could push Democrats who don’t love Biden to vote for him nonetheless. But the NYT and WSJ also already find multiple voters who will vote for an abortion-rights referendum but against Biden, due to the economy and immigration. Gov. KATIE HOBBS said on CBS today that she was focused more on the ramifications for her state’s women than for politics. So much for leaving it to the states … Trump today criticized the Arizona ruling, saying it went too far and will “be straightened out.” Related reads: “Trump’s latest abortion stance presents challenge for potential running mates,” by CNN’s Steve Contorno … “How the Biden campaign quickly mobilized on Trump’s abortion stance,” by NBC’s Monica Alba
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Allen Weisselberg got five months in jail for lying under oath. Joe Biden said he’s “considering” Australia’s request to end Julian Assange’s prosecution. Eric Holder’s group is pumping $1 million into down-ballot races. Nadine and Bob Menendez’s trials could be delayed to the summer. David Trone landed Anthony Brown’s endorsement. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED last night at Kathryn Murdoch and Ari Wallach’s screening of PBS’ “A Brief History of The Future” at the Kennedy Center: Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Jake Tapper, Jonathan Barzilay, Eriq Gardner, Rachel Goslins, Sylvia Bugg, Ted Johnson, Brooke Hart, Paula Kerger, Kalee Kreider, and Indira Lakshmanan. — SPOTTED last night at the D.C. premiere of “FOOD, INC. 2” at the Burke Theater at the Naval Heritage Center, hosted by Magnolia Pictures, River Road Entertainment, Participant Media, Food Fight, Open Markets Institute and DC/DOX: Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.) and Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), Chellie Pingree (D-Maine) and Gus Bilirakis (R-Fla.), Michael Pollan, Mark Cuban, Morgan Freeman, Chris Tucker and Robert Kenner. MEDIA MOVE — Alex Sanz will be deputy managing editor for politics at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, leading a significant expansion of their politics coverage. He currently is a global news manager at the AP. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Charles Adams, deputy chief of staff for Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho), and Kelly Adams, director of people operations at the Heritage Foundation, welcomed Micah Adams yesterday. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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