Wednesday, April 10, 2024

How much will the House tighten the belt?

Presented by NextEra Energy: Lisa Kashinsky and Kelly Garrity's must-read rundown of what's up on Beacon Hill and beyond.
Apr 10, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Lisa Kashinsky and Kelly Garrity

Presented by 

NextEra Energy

DOLLAR SIGNS — It may finally feel like spring, but we’re about to find out whether the state’s still in fiscal "winter."

House Democratic leaders who’ve been preaching fiscal prudence for months amid slumping tax revenues will unveil their fiscal year 2025 budget proposal today — a spending plan that will serve as a gut check on the state of the state’s finances.

Gov. Maura Healey kept things tight in her $58 billion budget plan, pairing $2 million in new spending with $450 million in cuts to various line items and roughly $500 million in pared-back spending in other areas.

In the two-plus months since she filed her blueprint, the fiscal outlook has largely worsened. Even with revenues coming in above the benchmark in March for the first time in months, Healey still moved ahead with pausing executive-branch hiring through June. And it’s become even clearer that the state is alone in paying for its exceedingly costly emergency shelter system.

House Democrats are still plowing ahead with a record investment in the MBTA. But there have been hints that the rest of the budget might not be so rosy. House Ways and Means Chair Aaron Michlewitz spoke at a budget hearing in early February of the need to keep funding key programs like universal free school meals and the Student Opportunity Act. But he also warned that his chamber would “proceed with caution” given the “challenge of declining revenue while facing stiff spending pressures.”

And after that hearing, Michlewitz told Playbook that if revenues kept falling short of benchmarks, the House would consider putting forward a spending plan that’s lower than the one Healey put on the table.

With that in mind, here are three things we’re watching for in the House’s take on the biggest spending plan of the year:

Aaron Michlewitz and Ron Mariano

House Ways and Means Chair Aaron Michlewitz (left) and Speaker Ron Mariano (right) presenting last year's budget proposal. The state's fiscal outlook has since soured. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

THE BOTTOM LINE — Healey’s second budget calls for a 3.7 percent spending increase over her first (or 2.9 percent, if you take out the $1.3 billion in spending on education and transportation being paid for by “millionaires tax” revenues). Look to see if the House has a lower bottom line.

SURTAX SPLIT — The House, through its transportation proposal, already appears to be diverging from how Healey wants to spend the $1.3 billion in surtax dollars. That’s no surprise — each of the budget plans put forward last year included different spending priorities for what was then a $1 billion pot.

REACHING FOR REVENUE — Healey is proposing using one-time revenues and redirecting others to fund the budget — calling to drain accounts lawmakers set aside to fund K-12 and early education, redirect $100 million in casino gambling revenue and authorize online lottery sales for an estimated $75 million. She also wants to divert $375 million in excess capital gains tax revenue from flowing into the state’s “rainy-day” fund.

It would be surprising if the House didn't follow Healey on the lottery piece after the lower chamber pushed unsuccessfully for it last year. But legislative leaders in both chambers have sounded skeptical about relying too much on one-time funds.

GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. We’ll have a budget breakdown Thursday.

TODAY — Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll have no public events. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu holds her annual budget breakfast at 9 a.m. at City Hall Plaza and joins former Patriot Rob Gronkowski for a ribbon-cutting ceremony at New Mission High School at 11 a.m.

Rep. Jake Auchincloss co-hosts a press conference on lowering the price of inhalers at 10 a.m. at the U.S. Capitol. Sen. Elizabeth Warren chairs a Senate banking subcommittee hearing at 2:30 p.m. Auditor Diana DiZoglio attends the Revere State of the City address at 6:30 p.m.

Tips? Scoops? Budget breakdowns? Email us: lkashinsky@politico.com and kgarrity@politico.com.

 

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WARREN REPORT

CONFLICT ZONE — The U.S. secretary of defense disputed the idea that Israel’s actions in Gaza amount to genocide, days after Sen. Elizabeth Warren said the International Court of Justice has “ample evidence” to rule otherwise.

“We don’t have any evidence of genocide being [committed]” by Israel in Gaza, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee, on which Warren sits, during a budget hearing Tuesday.

Warren pushed the Pentagon chief and the Defense Department to take further steps to protect civilians in the besieged region during the hearing. “There are serious concerns that Israel is not complying with international humanitarian law,” Warren said, urging officials to “push our closest allies” to apply high standards to prevent civilian harm — and “to cut off U.S. support if they refuse to do so.”

Now, likely GOP U.S. Senate candidate Ian Cain is trying to turn Warren’s stance on the conflict into a campaign cudgel. “It is clear Elizabeth Warren is more concerned with placating the far left anti-Israel base of her party than standing for Israel’s right to defend itself,” Cain wrote on X on Tuesday, calling Warren’s initial comments “concerning.”

But new polling shows Massachusetts residents may be souring on Israel’s aggressive campaign in the region. Forty percent of the 1,002 people surveyed in a recent GBH News/CommonWealth Beacon/MassINC Polling Group survey said they opposed Israel’s military action, while 34 percent said they supported it and another 26 percent didn’t know or didn’t answer. And 47 percent said the U.S. should encourage Israel to end the war immediately. More on that from GBH News. 

Elizabeth Warren speaks during a hearing.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

CASH DASH — Warren raised more than $1.1 million for her reelection bid in the first quarter of the year and has just over $4.4 million in cash on hand, her campaign said. She also continues to help raise money for colleagues in key races, President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign and a Florida abortion-rights effort.

Warren is also calling on her opponents to release their tax returns as a “basic standard of transparency, which ought to be the law,” according to a statement provided by her campaign and first reported by The Boston Globe. Cain told The Globe he’d release his tax returns when he’s on the ballot. Republican John Deaton’s campaign told The Globe it would release his returns in the “near future.”

Warren and her husband reported $893,534 in total income last year, a decrease from the $1.14 million they reported for 2022. They paid $244,312 in taxes and donated $38,285 to charity.

 

Access New York bill updates and Congressional activity in areas that matter to you, and use our exclusive insights to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more.

 
 
DATELINE BEACON HILL

“Long-sought hearing to decide embattled cannabis commission chief’s fate delayed — again,” by Matt Stout, The Boston Globe: “The long-running saga surrounding Shannon O’Brien will apparently run even longer. Aides to state Treasurer Deborah Goldberg said Tuesday that she agreed to a request from O’Brien’s attorneys to postpone a two-day administrative hearing just hours before the two sides were slated to meet in the closed-door sessions.”

“New ‘Blue Envelope’ program aims to protect people with autism during police stops,” by Ryan Mancini, MassLive: "This voluntary program will offer people on the autism spectrum a specially designed blue envelope to carry their driver’s license in case of traffic stops, Massachusetts State Police said in a statement about the program’s launch on Tuesday."

“Programs that could help keep Massachusetts children out of foster care are struggling for money,” by Jason Laughlin, The Boston Globe.

PAYING IT FORWARD — The Healey administration is repaying nearly $10 million in student loans for 221 direct-care staffers under the Department of Mental Health in the latest batch of awards under the MA Repay Program.

FROM THE HUB

TAX TALKS — Boston Mayor Michelle Wu’s administration has started some “early conversations” with Beacon Hill lawmakers on her proposed tax hike on commercial real estate, she said on GBH’s “Boston Public Radio.” At least one, state Sen. Nick Collins, is already sounding notes of caution.

“Boston Mayor Michelle Wu fires back on North End restaurateurs over outdoor dining,” by Lance Reynolds, Boston Herald: “The city is looking to toss a lawsuit filed by North End restaurateurs, arguing the businesses have no basis for claiming the mayor has targeted their establishments by imposing heavy restrictions on outdoor dining due to anti-Italian bias.”

“Boston Mayor Wu working to formalize rat czar position, administration official says,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald.

 

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YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

“Peabody’s Anne Manning-Martin announces campaign for Governor’s Council,” by ItemLive staff: “Peabody City Councilor-at-Large Anne Manning-Martin announced Tuesday she is running for the Governor’s Council 5th District to represent 36 cities and towns across the Commonwealth’s North Shore and Merrimack Valley. Councilor Manning-Martin is vying to replace outgoing Councilor Eileen Duff.”

FROM THE 413

“Smith College students end sit-in over divestment, but vow to expand their protest movement,” by James Pentland, Daily Hampshire Gazette: “The shift in focus brings an end to the longest sit-in in Smith College history, the group said. It began March 27 in response to the board of trustees’ rejection of the justice group’s petition for divestment from weapons manufacturers supplying arms for Israel’s assault on Gaza.”

“Smith College library workers unanimously vote to unionize,” by Juliet Schulman-Hall, MassLive.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

“Violence 'really bad' after COVID, Brockton superintendent says. What he saw, what helped,” by Christopher Butler, The Brockton Enterprise: “Although the safety and security concerns that schools in Brockton are experiencing have existed since before the pandemic, Brockton Public Schools saw a huge increase in violence once it returned to in-person learning, said BPS Superintendent Mike Thomas.”

“Cape Cod Hospital has first day with zero positive COVID-19 tests since start of pandemic,” by Zane Razzaq, Cape Cod Times.

“Uxbridge school pauses MCAS testing after 11-year-old student suffers burns from district laptop,” by John Monahan and Maria Papadopoulos, Boston 25 News.

 

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MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster has endorsed Colin Van Ostern, her 2010 campaign manager and “good friend,” to succeed her in the U.S. House. The former New Hampshire executive councilor and businessman also has the backing of former Democratic Gov. John Lynch.

MEDIA MATTERS

IN MEMORIAM “Larger than life Patriot Ledger reporter dies suddenly at 67. He worked there for 42 years,” by The Patriot Ledger staff: “Patriot Ledger reporter Fred Hanson died Monday, April 8, 2024, after collapsing outside of Braintree Town Hall. He was there to cover a school committee meeting. Hanson, 67, worked for The Patriot Ledger for nearly 43 years.”

 

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HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HELLO, FELLOWS — MassINC’s inaugural group of Greg Torres Senior Fellows includes retired trial court judge Dina Fein; former state Rep. Charlotte Golar Richie; Pema Latshang, Mary Wambui and Leverett Wing.

TRANSITIONS — MassBay Community College alum Alfonso Hidalgo has been appointed to the MassBay Board of Trustees.

— John Alvarez is now Eversource’s manager of government affairs for Massachusetts. He's a Baker administration, Global Partners and New Balance alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to past Boston mayor, former Labor secretary and NHLPA Executive Director Marty Walsh, Max Clermont and Elaina Nigro.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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Kelly Garrity @KellyGarrity3

 

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