And yet there are plenty of other races happening tomorrow, some of which could effectively determine the newest members of Congress. Here are five races that you might not have had your eye on — but you should: AL-02 — Thanks to redistricting, a crowded Democratic primary in deep-red Alabama has become a race to watch. Alabama’s congressional map was redrawn last fall after federal judges ruled that lines drawn by the GOP-dominated state legislature likely violated the Voting Rights Act by weakening the power of Black voters, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s population. The newly drawn 2nd District has a Black voting age population of just under 49 percent. Eleven candidates are facing off in the primary, five of whom currently serve in the state legislature. Shomari Figures, a former deputy chief of staff to Attorney General Merrick Garland, has caught the attention of Protect Progress, a pro-crypto super PAC that has spent more than $1.7 million in support of him. With the crowded primary field, it’s unclear if anyone can clear the more than 50 percent hurdle to avoid an April runoff. Despite Democrats’ strong position to pick up this seat in November, Republicans aren’t ceding it entirely: Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker and attorney Caroleene Dobson each have loaned their campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars. CA-16 — Although this deep-blue Silicon Valley seat won’t play into control of the House, millions of dollars are flowing in. Nine Democrats are on the ballot to succeed retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo , who has endorsed Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian as her successor. But he faces stiff competition from high-dollar candidates, including tech executive Peter Dixon, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and state Assemblymember Evan Low. Because of California’s top-two primary system, it’s possible that two Democrats will move on to the general election — setting the stage for another expensive battle. NC-01 — After an aggressive gerrymander from the GOP-controlled state legislature last year, first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ district is the only one still competitive come November. That makes Republicans’ pick here arguably the most important one in the state. There’s much hand-wringing from national Republicans that Sandy Smith will be the GOP nominee. Smith is a repeat candidate who lost to Davis by around 5 points last year, has faced allegations of domestic abuse — which she has denied — and continues to tout the false claim that Trump won the 2020 election. Republicans are concerned that those vulnerabilities in a general election will lead to defeat come November. So they’re banking on Laurie Buckhout, a political newcomer and Army veteran. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House GOP super PAC, has spent six figures to elevate her over Smith, who benefits from name recognition in the district from her previous bids. NC-06 — This Republican primary has it all: a former member of Congress looking for a comeback, repeat candidates and an unexpected Trump endorsement. The race for this newly drawn, safe Republican seat features former Rep. Mark Walker; Christian Castelli, the GOP’s nominee for the seat in the midterms when it was a competitive battleground; and Bo Hines, who lost in the general election for the state’s 13th Congressional District two years ago. But only Addison McDowell, a former lobbyist and first-time candidate, snagged a Trump endorsement — before he even announced his bid. Despite Trump having his candidate of choice, the others have been racing to prove their loyalty to the former president. Hines — who Trump endorsed in his 2022 bid — frequently invokes him, saying he’ll be “Trump’s number one ally in Congress.” Walker has done the same. He has also faced attacks from the conservative anti-tax Club for Growth, which is backing Hines, and sought to turn the tables by calling the group “anti-Trump.” (Trump offered Walker an endorsement for a House seat in 2022 to get him out of the Senate primary against then-Rep. Ted Budd, but Walker stayed in.) If no candidate earns more than 30 percent of the vote, the second-place candidate could request a runoff election that would be held in May. TX-23 — Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is trying fending off a group of primary challengers after the Texas GOP censured him for failing to vote with the party against bills that strengthened gun safety and codified same-sex marriage. Republicans Victor Avila, a former ICE agent; Julie Clark, former Medina County GOP chair; and Brandon Herrera, a social media influencer, have all attempted to portray Gonzales as out-of-step with the party. Herrera has targeted Gonzales on air, including a spot saying that Gonzales "betrayed" voters by backing the creation of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol. But Gonzales has been on air as well, and has received backup from the nonprofit arm of CLF. Happy Monday! What are you watching in tomorrow’s primaries? Reach us at mfernandez@politico.com/@madfernandez616 and lukenye@politico.com/@Lawrence_Ukenye. Days until Super Tuesday: 1 Days until the Mississippi primaries: 8 Days until the Illinois and Ohio primaries: 15 Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 50 Days until the Republican National Convention: 132 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 168 Days until the 2024 election: 246
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