| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | | | Nevada is holding its presidential nominating contests this week. You’d be forgiven if you didn’t realize — because they won’t matter much, anyway. This is not the week to expect a big shakeup: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are both on remarkably clear pathways to clinch their parties’ nominations thanks, in part, to the primary calendar their allies helped set up. That’s on display this week in Nevada; in addition to the Democratic and Republican primaries taking place on Tuesday, the state Republican Party will also be holding a caucus on Thursday.
|  President Joe Biden gestures to the audience after speaking at a campaign event in North Las Vegas, Nev., on Feb. 4, 2024. | Stephanie Scarbrough/AP Photo | Nevada has been a nonfactor in this year’s primaries. Look no further than former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley’s quest to make the GOP presidential primary competitive. She has been focusing her energy on her home state of South Carolina ahead of the Feb. 24 primary, as she continues to trail Trump there by double-digits. She’s even looking ahead to Super Tuesday, and is set to hold a rally in California later this week. By contrast, Haley has only been to Nevada once this cycle in October. The reason for Haley’s bypassing of the “First in the West” state is because of the unusual dueling contests taking place. Haley is running in the primary, which the state is required to hold by law, while Trump is competing in a party-run caucus, where delegates will actually be awarded. So yes, Haley will probably win in Nevada (unless she gets beat out by the “none of these candidates” option). And so will Trump — but only his victory will count. (Longshot presidential hopeful Ryan Binkley is on the caucus ballot, too.) The state GOP, which is led by Trump loyalists, has come under fire for its decision to caucus. Some of Trump’s primary opponents accused the party of holding it to benefit him, as caucuses are more likely to draw in more pro-Trump activists than a primary. Others in the state have raised concerns that the setup is confusing voters, especially because Trump won’t be on the primary ballot. Voters can cast a ballot in both, although candidates had to choose one contest to run in after the state GOP said candidates can’t compete in their caucus if they’re on the state-run primary ballot. Even the U.S. Virgin Islands, which does not get Electoral College votes, is poised to have a more competitive contest between Trump and Haley. Ahead of its caucus this Thursday, where four delegates are up for grabs, Haley addressed Republicans there over Zoom and Trump has sent surrogates to stump for him. Nevada’s Democratic primary isn’t going to be much more exciting. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) — who hasn’t yet posed a serious challenge to Biden elsewhere — isn’t on the primary ballot because he entered the race after the filing deadline passed. Marianne Williamson is on the ballot this week, but earned less than 5 percent of the vote in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Still, the frontrunners aren’t taking their impending wins for granted — another reminder that Biden and Trump are thinking less about the primary and more about their likely general election rematch. Biden rallied in Nevada on Sunday night, following Vice President Kamala Harris’ event last month and other visits from allies of the president. Trump rallied ahead of the caucus, as well. Biden won Nevada by just around 2 points in 2020. Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern in Tuesday’s primary. Thursday’s caucuses run from 8-10:30 p.m. Eastern. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 1 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 3 Days until the NY-03 special election: 8 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 19 Days until Super Tuesday: 29 Days until the Republican National Convention: 161 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 196 Days until the 2024 election: 274
| | | | A message from PREMION Political: Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now. | | | | | MEANWHILE IN SOUTH CAROLINA — Biden handily won the South Carolina Democratic primary over the weekend, as expected. Williamson and Phillips earned around 2 percent of the vote each. Beyond 2024, the South Carolina primary has “morphed into an under-the-radar contest for those eyeing the party’s nomination in 2028,” POLITICO’s Elena Schneider writes. A host of Democrats with national ambitions have descended on the state in recent months as Biden surrogates, including California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.). ON SECOND THOUGHT — Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison suggested that he’s open to finding a way to seat New Hampshire’s delegates at the Democratic National Convention, POLITICO’s Lisa Kashinsky reports. The DNC last year replaced New Hampshire with South Carolina as the first-in-the-nation Democratic primary, and vowed that the Granite State would lose half its delegates for violating the order by holding its unsanctioned primary in January. SWINGING FOR THE FENCES — Haley is “proceeding without any real caution for the first time in her campaign,” POLITICO’s Natalie Allison, Lisa Kashinsky and Meridith McGraw write. “She’s taking repeated, pointed, shots at an ‘unhinged’ Trump’s mental fitness and legal problems. She’s taunting him to debate her. … Those who have waited for a Republican candidate to go one-on-one with Trump have been delighted to see Haley seize the moment. Others say she is entitled to make the most aggressive case she can for the nomination.” TRUMP TRIALS — Trump’s pre-Super Tuesday trial date is off. The federal judge overseeing the case, which was set to take place on March 4 in D.C., rescinded the trial date “amid Trump’s ongoing effort to have higher courts declare him immune from the charges, which stem from Trump’s bid to subvert the 2020 election,” POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney writes. CASH DASH — Haley raised $16.5 million in January, her campaign told Axios’ Erin Doherty. That’s almost as much as she raised from October through December of last year, when she brought in $17.3 million. CHANGING OF THE GUARD? — Trump said that there would “probably be some changes made” when asked if he supports RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel. McDaniel’s future was “one of the central questions” at the RNC’s winter meeting last week, The New York Times’ Shane Goldmacher writes. “Among the names that have been more widely discussed as a chairman to lead a potential post-McDaniel party is Michael Whatley, the chairman of the North Carolina Republican Party and the RNC’s general counsel.”
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
| | SUCCESSION WARS — The race to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy “could be a microcosm of forces shaping the Republican Party,” POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White writes. “Where it once seemed McCarthy could anoint a successor, his preferred candidate — Assemblymember Vince Fong — is battling two other viable Republicans in a test of conservative voters’ mood and attitude toward their party’s old guard.” Further down the coast, the race to succeed Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is getting messy. State Sen. Dave Min and Joanna Weiss, both Democrats, have been publicly going after each other in recent weeks. Most recently, Min in an ad accused Weiss of powering her campaign with money earned through the legal defense of sex offenders. That came after Weiss ran an ad hitting Min for his DUI arrest last year. “The volley of attack ads is the most public manifestation yet of a feud that has been playing out in Democratic circles for months,” POLITICO’s Melanie Mason writes. PREPARE FOR ATTACK — Members of The Squad raked in the cash to prepare for likely brutal reelection campaigns this year. Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Cori Bush (D-Mo.) and Summer Lee (D-Pa.), who are all facing competitive primaries, outraised their challengers last quarter. Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) is the only one with a major challenger who didn’t. Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.), who doesn’t even have a declared opponent, brought in $3.7 million last quarter. “Behind their active fundraising is an acute worry about how far the deep-pocketed American Israel Public Affairs Committee will work to boot them,” POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu writes. “To combat the expected wave of outside money, Squad allies have engaged some big-dollar donors in preliminary conversations.” 2024 WATCH — Former Republican Missouri state Sen. Bob Onder is running in MO-03 to replace retiring Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer. Onder lost to Luetkemeyer in a 2008 congressional bid. Onder ended his lieutenant governor campaign to try again for Congress.
| | | | A message from PREMION Political:   | | | | | CA-Sen — Porter is responding to an ad that Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff released last week boosting Republican Steve Garvey, his opponent of choice in the general election. “Typical politicians,” the narrator in the Porter ad says. “He’s bad, I’m good, blah blah.” California’s open primary system means that two Democrats could proceed to the general election, which would make Schiff’s path to victory much more complicated. OH-Sen — Republican Bernie Moreno is running an ad about his China policy — and his endorsement from Trump. AL-02 — Former Alabama Republican state Sen. Dick Brewbaker is up with a direct-to-camera ad on border security. NC-06 — Republican Bo Hines is leaning into Trump in his latest ad — even though he’s not the president’s candidate of choice. Trump endorsed Addison McDowell in the crowded GOP primary, although he backed Hines during his unsuccessful 2022 run for NC-13. “North Carolina needs a fighter in Congress to lock arms with President Trump,” Hines says as a photo of him and Trump is shown. NC-13 — American Foundations Committee is up with an ad about the border in support of Republican Brad Knott. Knott is a “little-known” candidate, but the super PAC has so far spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads in support of him, WUNC’s Colin Campbell wrote in December. NY-03 — Congressional Leadership Fund is running another spot hitting former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi ahead of next week’s special election, blaming him for the “immigration crisis.” TX-12 — Republican Texas state Rep. Craig Goldman is touting the work he’s done in the state legislature, as well as his endorsement from Gov. Greg Abbott. He’s running in a crowded GOP primary for the reliably Republican seat that Rep. Kay Granger is leaving at the end of her term. TX-26 — Republican Doug Robison is up with his first ad in the deep-red seat, which Rep. Michael Burgess is vacating at the end of the term. Robison, a former judge, says he’s running for Congress because “Democrats have weaponized our justice system,” referencing the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove Trump from the primary ballot for inciting an insurrection.
| | NJ-Sen — Rep. Andy Kim has a double-digit lead over first lady Tammy Murphy in the Democratic primary, per a poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University. Kim earned 32 percent; Murphy had 20 percent; Sen. Bob Menendez had 9 percent; labor leader Patricia Campos-Medina had 8 percent (504 likely voters, Jan. 21-28, MoE +/- 4.5 percentage points).
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S GOVERNORS SUMMIT: Join POLITICO on Feb. 22 to dive into how Governors are wielding immense power. While Washington remains gridlocked, governors are at the center of landmark decisions in AI and tech, economic development, infrastructure, housing, reproductive health and energy. How are they setting the stage for the future of American politics, policies and priorities? How are they confronting major challenges? Explore these questions and more at the 2024 Governors Summit. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | — Laura O’Sullivan will join the Biden campaign as deputy director of surrogate operations and the national advisory board. She is a Pete Buttigieg alum. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “In hindsight, we were fucked from the beginning.” — An unnamed consultant to Never Back Down, the pro-Ron DeSantis super PAC, to The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo.
| | | | A message from PREMION Political: Premium OTT for winning electoral & issue advocacy campaigns
Nielsen reports TV viewers are continuing to choose streaming over cable. Premium OTT is the best way to engage those viewers for winning campaigns in 2024. PREMION Political has the dedicated and experienced team- plus proven & new premium products, including programmatic, dynamic creative, and incremental reach attribution- to help you win. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential here. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment