| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE NEXT SPECIAL ELECTION — “Democrats scramble to stave off defeat in battle for Santos’ House seat,” by CNN’s Manu Raju and Haley Talbot: “[J]ust over a week before the February 13 special election, it’s Democrats who are sounding the alarm. … The blunt warning from [TOM] SUOZZI underscores what officials in both parties are seeing in the closing days of the race: Voter anger over the handling of the southern border has become a central issue.” AND THE NEXT ONE — “McCarthy wanted a successor. He got a fight,” by Jeremy White: “Where it once seemed [KEVIN] McCARTHY could anoint a successor, his preferred candidate — Assemblymember VINCE FONG — is battling two other viable Republicans in a test of conservative voters’ mood and attitude toward their party’s old guard.”
|  Sen. James Lankford is doing his best to tout the deal as a major win for conservatives. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | RUN FOR THE BORDER — No more rumors. No more promises. It’s finally here: Senate negotiators released the text of their long-brewing bipartisan border agreement last night — and the spin and posturing, already well underway for weeks, is out in full force. Here’s how to look at the battle ahead: House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON last night declared the bill “dead on arrival” in his chamber. But conservative critics allied with DONALD TRUMP are undertaking an all-out push to smother the deal before it even gets there, and they have a little over two days to turn the GOP firmly against it before the Senate takes an initial vote Wednesday. Senate passage isn’t out of the question as of this morning, but the odds are not encouraging. The bill backed by JOE BIDEN, CHUCK SCHUMER and MITCH McCONNELL is already facing a buzzsaw of opposition on the right and the left. If it passes, it certainly won’t be with the 70-plus votes that chief GOP negotiator JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) once predicted. What’s become clear is that the politics of the bill have become severely detached from the policy it contains. The deal Lankford notched with Sens. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) amounts to, as CBS's Camilo Montoya-Galvez put it, "one of the toughest border and immigration laws in modern history” — one that discards any notion of legalizing America’s 11-million-plus unauthorized immigrants, once a key Democratic demand for any border bill. Yet within minutes of its release, DONALD TRUMP JR. denounced the bill (falsely) as a “mass amnesty.” (It isn’t.) And Trump campaign spokesperson JASON MILLER and many other critics latched onto the bill’s threshold for a mandatory shutdown of the border to claim it would simply allow 5,000 migrants into the country per day. (It wouldn’t.) So buckle up for a wild ride these next few days. Here’s a rundown of how key players are approaching the fight ahead: — THE GOP DEALMAKER POV: Both Lankford and McConnell are doing their best to tout the deal as a major win for conservatives — one that would lock in Democratic concessions that would have been unthinkable just a year ago. Established McConnell critics such as Sens. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.), MIKE LEE (R-Utah) and RON JOHNSON (R-Wis.) are already strident nos, but the hope is that a broader group of Senate Republicans will be hard-pressed to turn down the policy advances in the bill. Speaking to reporters last night, Lankford highlighted provisions such as raising the threshold for asylum seekers, curbing presidential parole authority, and implementing a new expedited removal process as well as the mandate to close the border when apprehensions reach 5,000 daily. More details on the bill Lankford acknowledged the political challenges he faces on the right, from colleagues who say the bill doesn’t go far enough or who don’t want to defuse the border issue for Biden just nine months before the election. “I personally don’t think anybody is going to look at Biden and say he’s the border security president after we’ve had 8 million people illegally cross the border in the last three years, more than the previous 12 years combined,” he said.
| | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Multi-cancer early detection tests have game-changing potential in the fight against cancer. By testing for dozens of cancers - including rare forms - at their earliest stages with a simple blood test, these tests could revolutionize early cancer detection once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown. Congress: pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085 to create a pathway to access to these tests in Medicare to make time for patients and their families. Learn more. | | | — THE MAGA POV: Despite all those conservative policy wins, there’s plenty of fodder in the bill for Trump-friendly critics eagerly looking for reasons to oppose it — and whip up a right-wing frenzy that could pull fence-sitters away from a yes vote. The border emergency authority that is a centerpiece of the bill, for instance, is not absolute. Unaccompanied minors and trafficking victims are not included, and immigration officers are empowered to make other exceptions. That authority can also be suspended by Biden for up to 45 days if it is “in the national interest" and the powers can be exercised for no more than "270 days in the first calendar year, 225 days in the second calendar year, and 180 days in the third calendar year" — after which it sunsets entirely. Even when a border emergency is declared, asylum claims can still be presented at ports of entry. When Murphy described this on X last night as "the border never closes,” critics quickly pounced. The bill also allows for more legal immigration, something many MAGA Republicans firmly oppose, authorizing an additional 250,000 immigrant visas over the next five years. It also includes automatic work permits for asylum recipients, which House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE called "a magnet for more illegal immigration." — THE HOUSE LEADERSHIP POV: Johnson’s DOA pledge followed statements of opposition from other top leadership figures — including Scalise, who said he would not schedule the bill for a House vote, and Conference Chair (and Trump VP wannabe) ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.), who called the bill an “absolutely non-starter.” Over the weekend, Johnson announced his Plan B: a standalone bill allocating $17 billion to Israel — funding that the White House and.congressional Democrats want to keep linked to the border, Ukraine and Taiwan. The idea is to split Democrats, but early signs are that it’s splitting Republicans, too — the Freedom Caucus isn’t happy Johnson is walking away from plans to offset the spending, and Ukraine hawks are nervous. The open question is whether the top-down opposition will quell any curiosity about the Senate deal among the rank-and-file. Notably, Lankford told reporters last night that he’d received texts from several House Republicans who liked what they were reading in the bill, and he encouraged them to speak out. We have to wonder if one of those might be Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas), a border-state member who has kept an open mind. He isn’t backing the bill, at least not yet, but he did mock fellow Republicans last night for insisting Biden doesn’t need a new bill to fix the border after literally passing a bill to fix the border. “Like every Republican, I ran my first campaign on border security, and I meant it,” he wrote. — THE PROGRESSIVE POV: The left is, unsurprisingly, unhappy about the deal. It abandons the longstanding formula for comprehensive immigration reform, trading tough new border security policies for $60 billion in Ukraine funding and other national security goodies, not a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. “For migrants who are able to seek asylum, they would now be subject to unrealistic standards and timelines under which to present their asylum claims, forcing too many people back to certain death, discrimination or other harm,” said Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.). In the Senate, widespread opposition on the left could make the math all the more difficult. With a large crop of Republicans expected to oppose the legislation, Democratic leaders can’t afford to lose many on their own side. Already two of the four Latino Democrats are publicly opposing the deal, with Sen. ALEX PADILLA (D-Calif.) saying it “misses the mark,” while Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) is calling it "unacceptable." But other liberal senators have so far kept mum and one prominent Latino hoping to join their ranks — Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.) — backed the deal last night, saying it “supports Arizonans and protects both our national security interests and those of our Israeli allies and Taiwanese and Ukrainian partners.” Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What’s your POV? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. THE WEEK — Today: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN begins four-day Middle East tour. … Tomorrow: Nevada holds presidential primaries. FAA Administrator MICHAEL WHITAKER testifies before House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. … Wednesday: Biden travels to New York for campaign fundraisers. House Democrats kick off annual policy retreat in Leesburg, Virginia. … Thursday: Supreme Court holds oral arguments in Trump ballot eligibility case. Republicans in Nevada and the U.S. Virgin Islands hold presidential nominating caucuses. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN testifies before Senate Banking Committee. Biden addresses House Democratic retreat. … Friday: German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ participates in a bilateral meeting at the White House. … Saturday: Lunar New Year. … Sunday: Super Bowl LVIII.
| | | | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:   Access to multi-cancer early detection tests in Medicare can make potential precious moments possible. Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085. Congress: Act now. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up KURT CAMPBELL’s nomination as deputy secretary of State. It will vote at 5:30 p.m. on JOSEPH LAROSKI JR.’s nomination as a judge of the U.S. Court of International Trade. The House will meet at noon. 3 things to watch … - The border bill is getting all the attention, but don’t forget that appropriators also released another 90 pages of emergency spending attached to it. The new supplemental’s topline is now $118.3 billion, which includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $14 billion for Israel, $10 billion in humanitarian aid, nearly $5 billion for Indo-Pacific partners including Taiwan, and just over $20 billion in new border funding.
- How will Democrats approach that clean House Israel bill? House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES would not commit to a position during an appearance yesterday on ABC’s “This Week,” though he said most in his party would like to see the funding move alongside Ukraine aid and humanitarian aid for Gaza. On the last House Israel funding bill, which included spending offsets, 12 Democrats crossed party lines.
- It’s a short week for the House, which will wrap up its work no later than Wednesday afternoon to make way for the annual Democratic policy retreat. The climactic vote for the week will be on DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS’s impeachment, which is set to take place shortly before House Dems pile onto buses heading out to the Lansdowne resort in Northern Virginia.
At the White House Biden will leave Las Vegas in the afternoon to return to the White House. VP KAMALA HARRIS will record a political radio interview.
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Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley waves to the crowd during a Get Out The Vote Rally at Exeter High School in Exeter, N.H., on Jan. 21, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | HALEY GOES ALL OUT — She may be approaching her final stand in the GOP presidential primary, but NIKKI HALEY isn’t going down without a fight. She raised a whopping $16.5 million last month, Axios’ Erin Doherty reports, blowing her previous money hauls out of the water and pulling the majority of the cash from grassroots donors. That precedes a serious tour of fundraisers upon which she’s embarking in the next two weeks. And on the trail, Haley is getting more aggressive against Trump than she’s ever been before — the “YOLO stage” of her campaign, as Natalie Allison, Lisa Kashinsky and Meridith McGraw memorably coin this morning. She seems to be enjoying the freedom of speaking forthrightly, while calculating that differentiating herself from the frontrunner is the only way to have a shot at victory … even though hardly anybody expects this to work in the end. “Trump’s allies, meanwhile, warn that Haley’s continued attacks against her former boss could hurt her down the road,” they write. But “she has a sizable constituency. And Trump’s threats have not cut Haley off from wealthy Republican donors.” One very under-the-radar contest to watch: the U.S. Virgin Islands caucuses, which take place Thursday and — unlike Nevada’s torturous two-pronged vote this week — will actually pit Trump and Haley directly against each other. Haley’s putting energy into the caucuses, which will be the next test of whether her message is landing. UNDER THE HOOD — “Biden Has Lost Support Among Black Voters. His Allies Blame Misinformation,” by NOTUS’ Tinashe Chingarande and Jasmine Wright: “Operatives in South Carolina poured their money and focus into a targeted ‘voter education’ campaign across the state. They say it paid off.” WAKING UP IN VEGAS — Biden was in Nevada last night for campaign events just ahead of the state’s primary election, and he might follow the fundraisers up with a splashy move today: joining striking hotel workers’ picket line, Reuters’ Jarrett Renshaw and Trevor Hunnicutt report. The union head said Biden has agreed to stand with them if they decide to strike today. Biden also levied some harsh and personal barbs at Trump last night at a fundraiser, per the White House pool. Referring to Trump’s comments about fallen U.S. soldiers, Biden said, “I have to hold my Irish temper. I’m glad I wasn’t with him. I’m not sure what I would’ve done. He said they’re all suckers and losers.” Referring to BEAU, Biden added, “My son was not a sucker, nor were any of yours. Who does this guy think he IS talking about Americans?” HEADLINE OF THE DAY — “‘I’ll permanently fuck up your biorhythms’: The inside story of the DeSantis super PAC’s failure,” by The Bulwark’s Marc Caputo LATEST MONEY BOMB — “VoteVets Plans $45 Million Push to Lift Biden and Democrats,” by NYT’s Reid J. Epstein PLAYBOOK METRO SECTION — “As violent crime soars in Washington, D.C. , Trump vows a ‘federal takeover,’” by NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald: “Forget statehood — Washington leaders are worried ‘we could lose most of the control we have over the city now.’” POLICY CORNER
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee on Capitol Hill, March 7, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | JEROME POWELL SPEAKS — The Fed chair doesn’t give a lot of televised interviews, so his appearance last night on CBS’ “60 Minutes” was watched eagerly for signs of what’s next from the central bank. Notably, Powell told Scott Pelley that interest rate cuts are likely on the horizon this year as inflation ebbs toward the Fed’s 2% goal, but policymakers are also treading with caution — and the meeting next month may be too soon to ease up. That balancing act reflects Powell’s surprising success in steering the economy toward a “soft landing,” as well as ongoing fears that inflation might not be finished with Americans yet, especially if global economic shocks arise. “Our confidence is rising,” he said. “We just want some more confidence before we take that very important step.” The economy’s unexpected resilience has given him some more breathing room. Powell emphasized that politics will have no bearing on the Fed’s decision-making during this election year. He also sounded an alarm bell on the national debt, as Victoria Guida writes, saying the federal government should “get back to putting a priority on fiscal sustainability” — urgently. Powell said the current trajectory of America’s debt is “unsustainable.” THE TAXMAN COMETH — “The IRS has all our tax data. Why doesn’t its new website use it?” by WaPo’s Julie Zauzmer Weil: “The agency’s Direct File program is touted as a free alternative to commercial tax software, but it’s a far cry from comparable offerings in other countries.” WHEN IT RAINS — “Boeing Finds New Problem With 737 MAX Fuselages,” by WSJ’s Sharon Terlep AMERICA AND THE WORLD ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN’S GOP CRASH COURSE — “What Happens When NATO Meets the Freedom Caucus,” by Alex Burns: “The meeting between a statesman of the West and outspoken voices of the American right captured the tensions at the heart of the transatlantic security relationship — and served, perhaps, as a preview of just how strained old alliances could grow under a second Trump presidency. For Rasmussen, who is also a former head of NATO, it was a brief immersion in the brute transactional politics that now governs the U.S. Congress, even on the most sensitive matters of national security.” WAR REPORT — “Onboard a U.S. aircraft carrier, a cat-and-mouse game with Houthi forces plays out,” by NBC’s Courtney Kube and Dan De Luce aboard the USS Eisenhower in the Red Sea
| | | | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network:   Access to multi-cancer early detection tests in Medicare can make potential precious moments possible. Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085. Congress: Act now. | | | TRUMP CARDS
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Donald Trump talks to reporters at the International Brotherhood of Teamsters headquarters, Jan. 31, 2024, in Washington. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images | THE WHAT-IF SCENARIOS — Of all the ways that Trump’s legal entanglements could play out this year, the Supreme Court deciding that he can be kicked off the ballot under the 14th Amendment is among the more far-fetched. But a shocker isn’t out of the question, and POLITICO Magazine has an interesting roundup of what legal and political thinkers believe could happen if SCOTUS goes there. Some argue that such a decision could burnish the court’s legitimacy and reputation as a nonpartisan actor. Others warn that violence, chaos, mass protests — and Republican-led states ignoring the decision outright — could unfurl. And what if he’s sentenced to prison from one of his criminal cases, particularly the federal election subversion trial? N.Y. Mag’s Ankush Khardori sketches out the possible scenarios, which could conceivably involve a minimum-security location like the federal prison in Pensacola, Florida, with limited ability to communicate with the public — and significant security challenges for the officials tasked with overseeing him. JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THE PROSECUTIONS — “Claims that Jan. 6 rioters are ‘political prisoners’ endure. Judges want to set the record straight,” by AP’s Michael Kunzelman and Alanna Durkin Richer: “As Trump floats potential pardons for rioters if he returns to the White House, judges overseeing the more than 1,200 Jan. 6 criminal cases in Washington’s federal court are using their platform to try to set the record straight concerning distortions about an attack that was broadcast live on television. A growing number of defendants appear to be embracing rhetoric spread by Trump, giving defiant speeches in court, repeating his false election claims and portraying themselves as patriots.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | J.D. Vance would have gone even further than John Eastman on Jan. 6. Donald Trump put Ronna McDaniel on notice. MEDIA MOVE — Marc Caputo is now a national political reporter at The Bulwark, writing a new “MAGAville” newsletter. He previously was a national political reporter at The Messenger, and is a POLITICO alum. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Eduardo Cisneros is now principal deputy director of HHS’ Office of Intergovernmental & External Affairs. He previously was a senior adviser to the White House Office of Intergovernmental Affairs. … Costa Samaras is now director of Carnegie Mellon’s Energy Innovation Institute. He previously was principal assistant director for energy and chief adviser for the clean energy transition at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. TRANSITIONS — Moses Cook is now president of Families Against Mandatory Minimums. He previously was director of operations and development at DC Justice Lab, and is a Rising for Justice alum. … Stuart Portman is now Medicaid director in Georgia. He previously was senior health policy adviser on the Senate Finance Committee. … Geralyn Ritter has been named president and CEO of Crowell & Moring International. She most recently was EVP for corporate affairs, sustainability and ESG at Organon & Co. BIRTHWEEK (was yesterday): Josh Mercer of CatholicVote HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm … DNC Chair Jaime Harrison … Business Roundtable’s Michael Steel … Drew Godinich … Vinoda Basnayake ... Kristina Baum … Sarabeth Berman … Armstrong Williams … NRSC’s Jillian Davidson … Bret Jacobson … Leadership Institute’s Matthew Hurtt ... Lisa Kohnke … Apple’s Trevor Kincaid … Susan Nelson … Sara Aviel ... Daniel Hoff … Ryan Velasco … Grant Carlisle … Margaret Franklin … Omarosa Manigault Newman … CAA’s Ali Spiesman Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | A message from The American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: Cancer stops the clock for more than six hundred thousand people every year, robbing those individuals and their families of their contributions and the precious moments they could have experienced. But by supporting access to breakthroughs in cancer innovation, Congress takes an active role in the fight against our country’s second most common cause of death, literally making time for patients and their loved ones. Multi-cancer early detection tests have the potential to revolutionize early cancer detection by screening for dozens of cancers, including rare forms, with a simple blood test.
Congress: Pass H.R. 2407 and S. 2085 and create a pathway to access to these tests in Medicare once FDA-approved and clinical benefit is shown to help create time for milestones and precious moments.
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