News : What we’re watching ahead of the big New York special election

Monday, February 12, 2024

What we’re watching ahead of the big New York special election

Feb 12, 2024

TOP LINE

The first major electoral test of 2024 is just a day away.

New York’s 3rd Congressional District has been a spectacle ever since Republican George Santos flipped the seat in 2022 and was promptly exposed for lying about his background. Months later, he was indicted for a wide range of financial crimes and then kicked out of Congress, with his tenure lasting less than one year.

Mazi Pilip and Tom Suozzi are shown.

Republican Mazi Pilip and former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi are facing off in the NY-03 special election on Tuesday. | Brittainy Newman & John Minchillo/AP Photo

The latest chapter in that saga is now coming to an end. Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip are facing off Tuesday in the high-dollar special election for the seat.

NY-03 is the type of district both parties will be focusing on later this year: a suburban seat that President Joe Biden won in 2020 but a Republican claimed in the midterms. Democrats are hoping a win could be a signal of the party’s momentum as they face headwinds to flip the House. And Republicans would benefit from having another member to pad their thin majority.

Score brought together some of the most tuned-in reporters covering the race to highlight what’s at stake.

What has stood out to you most about the campaigns?

Suozzi’s backslapping, take-any-press-question way of being so differs from Pilip’s brief, carefully managed public appearances. But you could also see it as experience versus change. Suozzi has been in politics for decades as the archetypal straight, white, male father, while Pilip is newer with a rare identity as a Republican, Black, Jewish, immigrant mother. — Jeff Coltin

Party identity, affiliation and fealty are a bit jumbled up in this race. Suozzi is a centrist and even conservative Democrat who doesn’t want Biden’s help in the race. (Republicans still lump him with all of his party, from Biden to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.) Pilip is an enrolled Democrat running as the GOP nominee, blasting the Democrats and saying she’d welcome Donald Trump’s help with her bid. — Emily Ngo

Suozzi clearly tried to distance himself from the national Democratic Party and address Republicans' immigration hits directly in his own TV ads. In doing so he pushed back on GOP attacks that Democrats were weak on border security but he also ensured that the dominant message in this election was the migrant crisis. We'll find out Tuesday if that was a good idea or if he maybe shouldn't have let Republicans set the agenda. — Ally Mutnick

What’s one thing you’ll be watching on election night?

I'm a Nassau County native, so I have to say it's the roughly three-quarters of the vote that will come from outside the city limits. Santos and Democrat Robert Zimmerman ran neck-and-neck in Queens two years ago, while Nassau provided the entirety of Santos' margin of victory, with large swings along the North Shore of Long Island. Do those places stick with Pilip, or is the combination of a known quantity in Suozzi (a former Nassau County executive and Glen Cove mayor) and the Santos scandal enough to get them to come back? — Steve Shepard

Turnout in Great Neck will be key for Pilip, her home region. Democrats are focusing on communities like New Cassel and Westbury. Democrats held a slight edge in early voting; will they be able to target less engaged voters in time for Election Day? — Nick Reisman

Will the losing candidate immediately say they’re running again? This swing seat is likely to be competitive in November, and it’ll be a bigger electorate with the presidential on the ballot. — Jeff

What do you think this race could tell us about other battleground races this year?

This is a low-turnout special election so caveats apply, but I think it will actually provide significant insight into 2024. The House could very well be won and lost in New York, as it was in 2022. Democrats had a well-known and well-funded candidate and outspent Republicans on TV. If they can't flip back a seat Biden won by more than 8 points under these circumstances, that's an ominous sign heading into November. — Ally

Long Island's suburbs haven't necessarily behaved like other suburbs across the country over the past three years. But if Democrats are going to win back control of the House, they'll likely have to flip back blue-state districts like this one and a handful in California, which have moved right since Trump left office even as swing-state suburbs continue to drift away from the GOP. — Steve

Happy Monday. Many thanks to Ally, Emily, Jeff, Nick and Steve for their insights. What are you keeping an eye on this week? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the NY-03 special election: 1

Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 12

Days until Super Tuesday: 22

Days until the Republican National Convention: 154

Days until the Democratic National Convention: 189

Days until the 2024 election: 267

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Presidential Big Board

ON THE OFFENSE — Democrats are taking independent Robert F. Kennedy as a serious threat. The DNC filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission alleging that American Values 2024, the super PAC supporting Kennedy, is illegally coordinating with his campaign to get him ballot access. It’s unlikely that the FEC would rule in time for November’s election, if they were to issue any sort of decision at all here.

AGE-OLD QUESTION — Some Democrats are pleading with Biden to “be out in public far more” and “engage with the press and voters in the off-script and punchy exchanges he’s been known for in the past, which they believe will help chip away at concerns about the president’s mental acuity,” POLITICO’s Myah Ward writes. Concerns about the president’s age have amplified following last week’s special counsel report portraying Biden as an “elderly man with a poor memory.” The campaign sent out a fundraising email over the weekend from first lady Jill Biden saying the report was full of “inaccurate and personal political attacks about Joe” and defending his age as “an incredible asset.”

TURF WAR — Trump was in South Carolina over the weekend, where he attacked NATO, saying that he would “encourage” Russia to attack member countries who did not meet their financial targets. That comment drew criticism from the White House and politicians on both sides of the aisle. He also threw attacks at former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina native Nikki Haley and her husband and Biden’s age.

DONOR DASH — Trump met with GOP megadonor Miriam Adelson last week, “his latest indication he is moving to consolidate the support of the Republican donor class,” POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt writes.

MAKING AMENDS — Trump and the Club for Growth seem to be trying to repair their rocky relationship: Trump and Club for Growth President David McIntosh had dinner at Mar-a-Lago last week, and McIntosh flew with Trump to his South Carolina rally over the weekend. “The moves are another indication of how the GOP is consolidating around Trump as he establishes a stranglehold on the party’s nomination,” Alex writes. Trump and the Club were at odds in the midterms, backing different candidates in critical races, and the Club spent money early this cycle trying to weaken Trump in the primary.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

2024 WATCH — Former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan is running for Senate, potentially making an otherwise safe Democratic seat competitive. There hasn’t been a Republican senator in Maryland for decades, and Biden won the state by more than 30 points in 2020. But Hogan has high name recognition, and the seat is open as Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin retires. National Republicans have long tried to recruit Hogan, who some also speculated could be a presidential contender on the centrist No Labels ticket.

Of note: Hogan over the weekend shared a quote from Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) saying that he is “glad to see that [Hogan] is willing to offer to serve once again.” It’s unclear if Golden, chair of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition, is endorsing Hogan’s run, but he is one of the few Democrats serving in a district that Trump won in 2020.

… Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) launched his long-awaited Senate bid against Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. But he first has to get past NRSC and Trump-backed candidate Tim Sheehy, a wealthy businessperson. Rosendale’s entry sets the stage for a messy primary battle, one that national Republicans have sought to stop out of concern that it will damage them in the general election — a must-win to flip control of the Senate. Rosendale, who unsuccessfully ran for Senate in 2018, enters the race with a slim bank account. His entrance also opens up MT-02, a safe red district where a crowd has already lined up to succeed him.

… New Jersey Republican Alex Zdan, a former local news reporter, joins a growing pool of candidates vying to take over the seat from Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.

… Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) is looking for a comeback in IN-08, a deep-red seat that Republican Rep. Larry Bucshon is retiring from.

… Georgia Democrat Marcus Flowers is primarying Rep. David Scott in GA-13. Flowers previously raked in millions of dollars during his unsuccessful 2022 challenge to Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene in GA-14. Scott, 78, has faced questions about his health, but is planning to run for reelection.

RETIREMENT RADAR — Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) is the latest to announce his retirement from Congress, which comes after he voted against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. WI-08 is a safe GOP seat.

KIM-MENTUM? — Rep. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) secured his first win over primary opponent first lady Tammy Murphy in the race for Senate. Kim won New Jersey’s first Democratic convention on Saturday in Monmouth County, Murphy’s home turf, by around 20 points. “The victory has both practical and symbolic purposes,” POLITICO’s Daniel Han writes. “It shows that Kim’s candidacy has momentum and that he can foster support from rank-and-file Democrats, which will be critical to counter Murphy’s institutional support from Democratic party leaders across the state. … It also means that Kim will get the so-called county line in Monmouth — a unique feature of New Jersey’s primary ballot.”

IT’S A NO FROM ME — Republican Martin Blank dropped his bid for MI-08, a pickup opportunity for the GOP following Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee’s retirement. Blank cited wanting to focus on his family. The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger, Beth LeBlanc and Melissa Nann Burke note that Republicans have yet to recruit a high-profile candidate. Paul Junge, who lost his bid by more than 10 points in 2022, is running again.

THE CASH DASH

FIRST IN SCORE — ABORTION RIGHTS BOOST — Protecting abortion rights proved to be a winning message for Democrats in 2023 — and it was evident through fundraising, according to new data from ActBlue. The Democratic fundraising platform said that nearly one-third of the 100 entities that raised at least $50,000 and whose donors gave the highest percentage of their total fundraising through recurring contributions were abortion funds or reproductive rights organizations. Additionally, a fundraising form created by the National Network of Abortion Funds, which splits donations among nearly 100 abortion-rights groups, raised $3 million last year — making it one of the most successful forms on the website.

Donations also skyrocketed in Virginia, home to some of 2023’s most highly watched races as Democrats leaned heavily on abortion rights while campaigning for the state legislature. Democratic candidates and groups supporting them brought in $44.6 million in 2023 on the fundraising platform, compared to $30.2 million in 2019. Nearly a quarter of donors who live in Virginia were first-time donors, and over 260,000 donors nationally donated at least once to a candidate from Virginia — a 57 percent increase compared to 2019.

DEM DOLLARS — The Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy PAC is planning to spend $40 million in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Georgia and Montana in support of Biden and Democrats further down the ballot. The investments will support door-to-door field programs, relational organizing and paid advertising and mail. CFFE PAC executive director Sondra Goldschein called it a “historic investment.”

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AS SEEN ON TV

PRESIDENTIAL — American Values ran a $7 million spot nationally during the Super Bowl riffing off a John F. Kennedy ad from 1960.

CA-Sen — Standing Strong PAC, a super PAC boosting Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff’s Senate bid, dropped $200,000 and counting on an ad denouncing Republican Steve Garvey as “too conservative.” It is similar to an ad that Schiff’s campaign itself released earlier this month in an effort to elevate Garvey among GOP voters ahead of the all-party primary, trying to make sure the general election is not Schiff versus fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter.

OH-Sen — Republican Matt Dolan is going after primary opponent Bernie Moreno on immigration.

AL-01 — Republican Rep. Barry Moore is responding to the barrage of ads from primary opponent Rep. Jerry Carl and his allies framing him as disloyal to Trump and not conservative enough on the border, calling them “downright dishonest.” Carl, meanwhile, is up with an ad calling for the impeachment of Biden and Mayorkas.

CA-31 — Democratic California state Sen. Bob Archuleta has outgoing Rep. Grace Napolitano stumping for him in a spot ahead of the Super Tuesday primary.

NY-03 — Congressional Leadership Fund is continuing to hammer Suozzi on immigration, tying him to New York City Mayor Eric Adams.

CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I like her boyfriend, Travis, even though he may be a Liberal, and probably can’t stand me!” — Trump on Truth Social, rallying against a hypothetical Taylor Swift endorsement for Biden.

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