The latest chapter in that saga is now coming to an end. Former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi and Republican Mazi Pilip are facing off Tuesday in the high-dollar special election for the seat. NY-03 is the type of district both parties will be focusing on later this year: a suburban seat that President Joe Biden won in 2020 but a Republican claimed in the midterms. Democrats are hoping a win could be a signal of the party’s momentum as they face headwinds to flip the House. And Republicans would benefit from having another member to pad their thin majority. Score brought together some of the most tuned-in reporters covering the race to highlight what’s at stake. What has stood out to you most about the campaigns? Suozzi’s backslapping, take-any-press-question way of being so differs from Pilip’s brief, carefully managed public appearances. But you could also see it as experience versus change. Suozzi has been in politics for decades as the archetypal straight, white, male father, while Pilip is newer with a rare identity as a Republican, Black, Jewish, immigrant mother. — Jeff Coltin Party identity, affiliation and fealty are a bit jumbled up in this race. Suozzi is a centrist and even conservative Democrat who doesn’t want Biden’s help in the race. (Republicans still lump him with all of his party, from Biden to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.) Pilip is an enrolled Democrat running as the GOP nominee, blasting the Democrats and saying she’d welcome Donald Trump’s help with her bid. — Emily Ngo Suozzi clearly tried to distance himself from the national Democratic Party and address Republicans' immigration hits directly in his own TV ads. In doing so he pushed back on GOP attacks that Democrats were weak on border security but he also ensured that the dominant message in this election was the migrant crisis. We'll find out Tuesday if that was a good idea or if he maybe shouldn't have let Republicans set the agenda. — Ally Mutnick What’s one thing you’ll be watching on election night? I'm a Nassau County native, so I have to say it's the roughly three-quarters of the vote that will come from outside the city limits. Santos and Democrat Robert Zimmerman ran neck-and-neck in Queens two years ago, while Nassau provided the entirety of Santos' margin of victory, with large swings along the North Shore of Long Island. Do those places stick with Pilip, or is the combination of a known quantity in Suozzi (a former Nassau County executive and Glen Cove mayor) and the Santos scandal enough to get them to come back? — Steve Shepard Turnout in Great Neck will be key for Pilip, her home region. Democrats are focusing on communities like New Cassel and Westbury. Democrats held a slight edge in early voting; will they be able to target less engaged voters in time for Election Day? — Nick Reisman Will the losing candidate immediately say they’re running again? This swing seat is likely to be competitive in November, and it’ll be a bigger electorate with the presidential on the ballot. — Jeff What do you think this race could tell us about other battleground races this year? This is a low-turnout special election so caveats apply, but I think it will actually provide significant insight into 2024. The House could very well be won and lost in New York, as it was in 2022. Democrats had a well-known and well-funded candidate and outspent Republicans on TV. If they can't flip back a seat Biden won by more than 8 points under these circumstances, that's an ominous sign heading into November. — Ally Long Island's suburbs haven't necessarily behaved like other suburbs across the country over the past three years. But if Democrats are going to win back control of the House, they'll likely have to flip back blue-state districts like this one and a handful in California, which have moved right since Trump left office even as swing-state suburbs continue to drift away from the GOP. — Steve Happy Monday. Many thanks to Ally, Emily, Jeff, Nick and Steve for their insights. What are you keeping an eye on this week? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the NY-03 special election: 1 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 12 Days until Super Tuesday: 22 Days until the Republican National Convention: 154 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 189 Days until the 2024 election: 267
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