Monday, February 19, 2024

House inaction captures world attention

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Feb 19, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

Presented by

Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel

With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

THAT’S … QUITE THE COMPARISON — Federalist Society cofounder STEVEN CALABRESI, writing for Reason’s Volokh Conspiracy blog: “The civil fraud judgment against DONALD TRUMP is a travesty and an unjust political act rivaled only in American politics by the killing of former Treasury Secretary ALEXANDER HAMILTON by Vice President AARON BURR.” (Calabresi has previously argued that Trump is ineligible to appear on 2024 ballots, then later changed his mind.)

JILL BIDEN’S SEARCH FOR MEANING — What does JILL BIDEN want her legacy to be? That question was at the center of a summit of scholars the first lady convened roughly a year into her time in the White House — one that turned out to be “a free-for-all from a group of historians whose feedback suggested that her interests were not expansive enough,” Katie Rogers writes in a buzzy Vanity Fair excerpt from “American Woman,” her much-anticipated new book on the evolution of the role of first lady.

“[A]t different moments throughout the meeting … the First Lady was either unable or unwilling to share the particulars of what she wanted to achieve, which of her predecessors she wanted to emulate, or what she wanted her legacy to be. When one historian asked her what her overall goal was, she seemed puzzled. ‘What is my goal?’ she repeated back, as if she had never pondered such a question. …

“Another historian tried the same question in a different way: At the end of eight years, what would she most like to say she had done with the role? ‘I can’t really choose just one,’ she replied. She listed free community college and ‘changing cancer as we know it’ before quickly switching back to a topic she was more comfortable with: her husband’s record on civil rights and education reform. The interactions illustrated the limits of her patience with being asked for more and moving beyond what she felt she had already given. The feedback from the group was a franker assessment than she had expected.”

A Ukrainian serviceman installs an electronic warfare system to quell Russian drones at the front line, near Bakhmut, Donetsk region, Ukraine, Monday, Jan. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Efrem Lukatsky)

The biggest question on world leaders' minds is whether the U.S. will be able to actually make good on its promises to keep providing assistance to Ukraine. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo

THE POST-MUNICH OUTLOOK — If ever there was a paragraph that captured the state of play in Ukraine, it’s this one from a Munich Security Conference dispatch by our colleagues Alex Ward and Paul McCleary:

“Four American senators recounted a story Ukrainian officials told them at the Munich Security Conference: A soldier in a muddy trench with Russian artillery exploding nearby, scrolling on his phone for signs the U.S. House would approve military aid.”

With Munich now over and world leaders heading back home, the biggest question on their minds is whether the U.S. will be able to actually make good on its promises to keep providing assistance to Ukraine given the ongoing challenges within the House Republican Conference.

And the answer is just as uncertain as it was before Munich, if not more. Throughout the security conference, the pair reports, “[l]awmakers from both parties in Munich assured ally after ally that the House would eventually greenlight the aid, with some predicting passage as soon as March.”

The lack of movement by the House is already being felt intensely by the U.S. military. CNN’s Haley Britzky and Natasha Bertrand write that “Army officials are increasingly concerned that without new funding, they will have to begin pulling money from other critical projects to continue supporting Kyiv,” as the Army’s Europe and Africa Command “has roughly $3 billion to pay for $5 billion of operations costs.”

“If Congress still hasn’t passed new funding for Ukraine within a few months, Army officials say they will have to start making hard decisions and divert money from less critical projects, such as badly needed barracks construction or enlistment incentives amid record-low recruiting.”

Meanwhile, “Ukrainian and Russian forces [continue] to play a game of artillery ping pong across the 600-mile front,” Alex and Paul write. “Kyiv has seen more success in the Black Sea, sinking several Russian ships in the strategic waterway, but it didn’t do much to improve the optics of a war that’s trudging along. No one on either side of the Atlantic — and especially in Kyiv and Moscow — can predict what’s to come.”

Related reads:

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THIS WEEK — Tomorrow: President JOE BIDEN heads to LA for a multi-day visit in California. Fox News hosts a South Carolina town hall with Trump at 7 p.m. … Wednesday: CPAC kicks off in D.C. … Thursday: Trump lawyers’ motions due in classified documents case. … Friday: Fulton County, Georgia, hearings on DA FANI WILLIS’ potential removal expected to continue. … Saturday: Trump speaks at CPAC at noon. South Carolina GOP primary.

NEVERTHELESS, SHE PERSEVERES The early voting of the first four states is nearly over. On Saturday, Republicans will hold their South Carolina primary as Trump and NIKKI HALEY face off in the latter’s home state — where she seems poised to lose.

Haley has maintained that no matter what happens in the Palmetto State, she plans to stick around, hoping that Republicans will find a way to break free from the hold Trump has on the party, despite so much evidence to the contrary.

The Boston Globe’s James Pindell offers four potential reasons Haley could stick around: (1) 2028 ambitions (“every time the contest moves to a new state, it is a new opportunity to build an organization there that could help jumpstart the next campaign”); (2) “To serve as Trump’s vice president or high-profile cabinet position”; (3) to become “the de facto leader of the Reagan wing of the Republican primary”; and (4) she “doesn’t know what she wants.”

VIBE CHECK ON THE LEFT — “Anti-Trump Burnout: The Resistance Says It’s Exhausted,” by NYT’s Katie Glueck

VIBE CHECK ON THE RIGHT — “High-profile Republicans head for the exits amid House GOP dysfunction,” by CNN’s Melanie Zanona, Annie Grayer and Haley Talbot

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

The Bidens left Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, this morning to return to the White House.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will get briefings and have internal staff meetings.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo speaks at the opening session of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' week in San Francisco, California, on November 15, 2023. The APEC Summit takes place through November 17. (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS / AFP) (Photo by ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP via Getty Images)

The Commerce Department's largest Chips and Science Act grant yet is headed to New York. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. DIPPING INTO CHIPS: In the third big grant from the Chips and Science Act, the Biden administration announced today $1.5 billion for a huge new factory in Malta, New York, per WaPo’s Drew Harwell. The money, which will also boost a couple of other GlobalFoundries facilities, will go toward advanced semiconductor manufacturing, and it’s by far the largest such grant unveiled yet. “The projects are expected to create roughly 1,500 jobs in manufacturing and 9,000 in construction.”

But America’s chips renaissance is running into obstacles around the country at the same time, NYT’s Don Clark and Ana Swanson report. Multiple high-profile projects have run into logistical struggles and delayed their timelines, “raising questions about the prospects of success for President Biden’s industrial policy program.” The White House says these are minor bumps, but others blame economic shifts and slower-than-expected actions from the Biden administration.

2. ALL EYES ON SOTU: “Biden’s reset moment,” by Axios’ Mike Allen and Alex Thompson: “Biden officials see next month’s State of the Union address as a big, public reset moment — a chance to overcome or at least neutralize concerns about President Biden's age and vitality. … Biden’s SOTU address played well last year — he seemed agile and riffed about the GOP and Social Security. Officials close to him, needing a repeat triumph, will spend hours on everything from the text to his physical preparation to exploit the prime-time moment. … One bold move that Biden has considered, we're told, is an executive order that would dramatically stanch the record flow of migrants into the Southwest.”

3. NATO NO-NO: American senators from both parties went to Budapest this weekend to try to sway PM VIKTOR ORBAN to allow Sweden into NATO — but the Hungarian government refused to meet with them, NYT’s Andrew Higgins reports. “Strange and concerning,” Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) said of the snub, which comes as Orban continues to be a thorn in Europe’s side. The senators, all big backers of Ukraine, “said they would introduce a resolution in the Senate urging Hungary to stop stalling and expressing concern about democratic backsliding under Mr. Orban.”

4. WHAT’S THE HOLDUP: “Federal agencies scramble to finish Biden’s rules — and protect his legacy from Trump,” by POLITICO’s E&E News’ Robin Bravender, Kevin Bogardus and Michael Doyle: “Biden’s allies are getting antsy about his administration’s pileup of unfinished environmental rules — especially with the threat that a second Trump presidency could undo them all. Biden’s agencies are facing a deadline this spring to finish some of their most important regulations to ensure that a Republican Congress and White House can’t erase them next year, including a crackdown on power plants’ climate pollution, protections for endangered species and a bid to protect federal employees from politically motivated firings.”

 

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5. THE ABORTION REFERENDA: About a dozen states could see abortion rights ballot measures put directly to voters this fall — which could be a boon for advocates, but is also increasingly creating competition for funds, Megan Messerly and Alice Miranda Ollstein report. “There isn’t enough for everyone,” and as the various campaigns jockey for the attention of big donors, a divide has emerged between states where abortion has really been banned or threatened and swing states where a Democratic turnout boost might be more important. National progressive groups “are agonizing over where their dollars could have the most impact,” and some states are likely to end up without enough money to qualify or win.

Maryland is one of the states where abortion access is safe, but Democrats now hope that the drive to get a ballot referendum there will help them defeat LARRY HOGAN’s Senate bid, AP’s Brian Witte reports from Annapolis.

6. PRIMARY COLORS: “Lauren Boebert Tries to Convince New District She’s Not All Drama,” by WSJ’s Elizabeth Findell in Kiowa, Colorado: “Voters [at a fairgrounds] were divided, reflecting what political analysts are forecasting: It will be a hard-fought and unpredictable primary race. … Her fame could help in a crowded race, but it has become as much of a curse as a blessing, as she deals with fallout from scandals … The reception from grass-roots Republican groups has been chilly. The field includes strong local candidates, several with long statewide political experience and regional backing. … On the campaign trail, [Rep. LAUREN] BOEBERT is trying to broaden her brand.”

7. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: New U.S. strikes over the weekend hit an unmanned underwater Houthi vessel in the first such reprisal since their campaign of Red Sea attacks started, CNN’s Aileen Graef reports. U.S. Central Command said additional strikes against Houthi cruise missiles were meant to stave off “an imminent threat.” Meanwhile, new reporting from NYT’s Farnaz Fassihi indicates that many of the Iranian proxy fighters killed in retaliatory U.S. attacks strikes were Afghan refugees living in Iran, whom Tehran recruits to fight. That’s provoking tensions in Iran: One expert says Afghans “feel they are used as cannon fodder.”

8. THE BIDEN DOCTRINE: “Jake Sullivan’s Revolution,” by Alex Ward in POLITICO Magazine, adapted from his forthcoming book, “The Internationalists”: “The Bidenism that [national security adviser JAKE] SULLIVAN helped define has infused every corner of this administration’s foreign policy. … To arrive at this new outlook, Sullivan first had to dismantle establishment orthodoxies within himself … Instead of rampant globalization, Sullivan’s pitch was that a reenergized American economy made the country stronger. … If that was done right, a strengthened America could act more capably around the globe.”

9. NARRATIVE SHIFT: Forget abortion and same-sex marriage: Fighting against transgender rights has “become perhaps the biggest rallying call to Christian conservatives” in political campaigns around the country, AP’s James Pollard reports from Columbia, South Carolina. From Trump to Haley to state legislatures, restricting gender-affirming medical care for minors, keeping transgender girls out of female sports and other similar priorities are connecting in a big way with many Republican voters. They’ve become a new “keystone” for religious conservatives after the Supreme Court undid Roe v. Wade. But the targeting worries transgender advocates, who cite high levels of mental health struggles among trans people.

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Joe Biden’s great-great-grandfather was pardoned by Abraham Lincoln.

Julian Assange’s possible last stand in London begins tomorrow.

Louisa Loveluck is being targeted by the 10/7 Project and SKDK.

Carlton Huffman is deposing Sean Hannity, Tim Miller and more as he heads toward a trial against Matt Schlapp, per 24Sight’s Tom LoBianco, Pilar Belendez-DeSha and Warren Rojas.

Dean Phillips isn’t ceding the sneaker space to Donald Trump.

IN MEMORIAM — “William Beecher, Who Revealed Secret Cambodia Bombing, Dies at 90,” by NYT’s Clay Risen: “His New York Times scoop enraged the Nixon White House, which ordered a tap on his phone. He later won a Pulitzer Prize for The Boston Globe.”

TRANSITIONS — David Pigue is joining iHeartMedia as senior director and policy counsel. He previously was counsel for Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska). … Amanda Farnan is joining Sen. Martin Heinrich’s (D-N.M.) office as digital director. She most recently was press secretary for the Partnership for Public Service, and is a POLITICO alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) … Andrew Ross Sorkin John GentzelJustin Rouse Kevin BishopGary AndresStewart McLaurin of the White House Historical Association … Tamara Hinton Olga Ramirez Kornacki Judy Kurtz Sean Conner of Lowe’s … Tucker Warren … POLITICO’s Jen Plesniak … DOE’s Noah Deich Nick Solheim Sarah Stillman John J. Miller … Capital One’s Joe VidulichChase Kroll … AEI’s Jason Bertsch ... Kaitlyn Martin Hunter Lovell of Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Ariz.) office … Jill Lawrence Andy Abboud of the Las Vegas Sands Corp. … former Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) … Alexis Covey-Brandt Bryce Taylor RudowDaria Dieguts MaitlandAlicia Rose

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