| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | I’VE GOT A BLANK SPACE, BABY — The NYT takes a close look this morning at President JOE BIDEN’s general election battle plan, which will “couple a direct assault on [DONALD] TRUMP with a heavy focus on abortion rights, casting the issue as symbolic of larger conservative efforts to restrict personal freedoms.” And this … ”Biden aides are drafting wish lists of potential surrogates, including elected officials, social media influencers and the endorsement of their wildest dreams: the global superstar TAYLOR SWIFT.”
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Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) speaks with reporters at the Capitol Jan. 25, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | DEMS PUNCH BACK ON THE BORDER — For months now, polls have shown voters putting the migrant crisis at the southern border among their top concerns — and blaming Democrats for the mess. Could that be about to change? With bipartisan legislation hanging in the balance and the Homeland Security secretary on the verge of impeachment, Democrats are readying to play offense on border politics, for once. They are undertaking a campaign to upend public opinion in the coming weeks by casting Republicans as being more interested in theatrics than solutions. They’ve got a lot of material to work with: Trump and his allies are pressuring Republicans to abandon any border deal the Senate might reach — with some openly admitting that they don’t want to hand Biden a win before November. As top Senate negotiator JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) put it yesterday on “Fox News Sunday,” after months of pushing for border security, “it’s interesting … when we’re finally getting to the end, [Republicans are] like, ‘Oh, just kidding, I actually don’t want a change in law because of presidential election year.’” That’s just one of the sound bites that Democratic admakers have been collecting in recent weeks as an insurance policy of sorts if Republicans end up tanking the still-to-be-unveiled Senate border deal. “There's a real opportunity here, where Dems around the country can raise their hand and be like: ‘It turns out they were bluffing. They weren’t serious. It was a sound bite for them,’” one plugged-in Democratic campaign operative told Playbook last night. "They’ve been talking about it, highlighting it and freaking everyone out — then when there's a bipartisan deal, with a lot of Dem compromises in it, they went running for the hills.” Already this new border-related bullishness is showing up on the ground: In the closely watched House special election in New York’s 3rd District, former Democratic Rep. TOM SUOZZI recently crashed a border-related event GOP opponent MAZI PILIP was hosting outside a migrant shelter in Queens and attacked her for having no solutions to the problem. The results of the Feb. 13 election to replace ousted Rep. GEORGE SANTOS will be telling. A Dem-affiliated polling outfit, Navigator Research, recently tested border-related messaging in battleground House districts and shared the results with Playbook. After quoting Rep. TROY NEHLS (R-Texas) to respondents admitting that he’s “not willing to do too damn much right now to help a Democrat and to help Joe Biden’s approval rating,” 66% said they had “serious concerns” that the GOP was putting politics over solutions. In short, Democrats believe they can make the case to voters that, despite years of shouting about the crisis at the border, Republicans are the ones sitting on their hands as the migrant influx strains law enforcement and social services — all because they are beholden to Trump. We’re about to find out whether this turn-the-tables strategy will work. Text of the months-in-the-making Senate deal is expected to finally be released in the coming days, with full details on its overhaul of asylum policies, new powers to expel migrants and beefed up federal resources. Meanwhile the GOP deal skeptics, particularly Speaker MIKE JOHNSON, have been laying the groundwork to reject the emerging agreement as falling short — and are dismissing any suggestion their opposition could backfire. Convincing voters to do a 180 is little more than wishful thinking, those Republicans argue. And they’ve already teed up policy arguments for opposing a deal that have nothing to do with election-year politics — that (1) Biden already has the authority he needs to close the border and that (2) the emerging deal will still allow many thousands of migrants into the country every month — as many as 5,000 per day, according to some leaks. There’s pushback on these points: Lankford on Sunday said “it would be absurd for me to agree to 5,000 people per day” and that the deal “focuses on getting us to zero illegal crossings a day.” And when it comes to Biden’s current powers, the White House is out with a new memo this morning highlighting all the times both Johnson and Trump argued that Congress needed to change the law to strengthen the president’s hand on immigration. As for the politics, Democrats think their border sell will be easier than Republicans think, since it feeds into other, more established narratives — that (1) the GOP is awash in chaos and kowtows to Trump’s every whim and that (2) Trump is only out for himself, not what’s best for the nation. For a test of the new strategy, keep a close eye on Republicans’ move to impeach DHS secretary, ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, which is coming to a head tomorrow in the House Homeland Security Committee. Expect House Democrats to play up the irony of the GOP trying to oust Mayorkas just as he strikes a bipartisan deal with Senate Republicans to address the border — and just as House Republicans give up on the deal entirely. SMART READ — “The huge wedge between McConnell and Johnson: Donald Trump,” by Jordain Carney and Burgess Everett: “As a bipartisan group of senators labor to deliver a deal that would tie stricter border policies to Ukraine aid … [MITCH] McCONNELL and Johnson are facing a unity test that will define their party during the 2024 election cycle. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from Instagram: More than 75% of parents want to approve the apps teens under 16 download.
According to a new poll from Morning Consult, more than 75% of parents agree: Teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps from app stores without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more. | | | WHOOPS — “Signs Suggest Alaska Airlines Plane Lacked Bolts When It Left Boeing Factory,” by WSJ’s Andrew Tangel THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Biden travels to South Florida for campaign events. RNC winter meeting kicks off in Las Vegas. … Wednesday: House Homeland Security Committee marks up articles of impeachment against Mayorkas. MARK ZUCKERBERG and other tech CEOs testify before Senate Judiciary on online child sexual exploitation. Fed meets on interest rates. FEC reporting deadline for campaigns and committees. Washington Press Club Foundation holds 78th annual congressional dinner. … Thursday: Biden attends the 72nd annual National Prayer Breakfast. … Friday: Groundhog Day. January jobs numbers released. … Saturday: South Carolina holds Democratic presidential primary.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The House will meet at noon. The Senate is out. 3 things to watch …
- Will Johnson put the bipartisan tax bill on the floor? Action this week is still up in the air, according to a senior Republican aide, with conservatives — such as former Freedom Caucus chair SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.) — raising concerns about the bill’s child tax credit expansion, while Northeast moderates keep pressing for a costly restoration of the state and local tax deduction, aka SALT.
- Appropriators are off to the races after finally striking a deal on subcommittee allocations — the hallowed “302(b)s.” The exact levels are being kept close-hold for now as cardinals and rankers move to hash out agency funding levels and work through policy riders — with the most sensitive issues sure to get kicked up to top leaders as the initial March 1 shutdown deadline approaches.
- The “vote no, take the dough” phenomenon isn’t going away: Last week, Rep. PETE STAUBER (R-Minn.) took heat from Dems for touting a bridge rebuild funded by the infrastructure bill he opposed. And yesterday, in a truly cringe-y exchange, WFOR-TV’s Jim DeFede pressed Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) for trying to take credit for various federal investments she’d voted against. She responded by saying she’d have to ask her staff about her votes. Watch here
At the White House Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 11 a.m. VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel from Los Angeles to San Jose this morning as part of the “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour, where she will speak at 12:20 p.m. Harris will attend a campaign reception at 2:30 p.m. before returning to Washington.
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President Biden bows his head in a moment of silence for the three American troops killed Sunday, Jan. 28, 2024, in a drone strike in northeast Jordan. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | WAR REPORT — The attack on U.S. troops in Jordan yesterday — which by latest count includes 34 injured and eight evacuated for medical help, in addition to the three Army members killed — puts Biden in a bind. The president declared that “we shall respond” to the attack from Iranian-supported militants, and the administration is crafting potential options, Paul McLeary and Lara Seligman report. Now facing the very scenario he’s feared since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war — U.S. troops dead — Biden has to weigh the importance of retaliation and deterrence against the imperative to prevent a wider conflict, NYT’s Peter Baker reports. One expert calls it a “Goldilocks response.” One big outstanding question is whether Biden will launch attacks inside Iran itself; without a doubt, the U.S. is planning for “a different level of response” than it has levied thus far. The Times reports that it’s as yet unclear whether Iran intended this as an escalation or it just happened to be deadlier than previous militant attacks. (The Iranian mission at the U.N. told the WSJ that Iran had nothing to do with the strike.) Republican hawks in the Senate wasted no time in urging Biden to go tough: “I am calling on the Biden Administration to strike targets of significance inside Iran,” said Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.). “Target Tehran,” said Sen. JOHN CORNYN (R-Texas). In a sign of the ongoing foreign policy rift in the GOP, TUCKER CARLSON responded on X to the senators: “Fucking lunatics.” More from Anthony Adragna on the split-screen More top reads:
ALL POLITICS AD IT UP — “Dems make early ad reservations in key Senate races,” Ally Mutnick scoops: “Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group focused on Senate races, is placing its first ad buys for the fall ad campaign in two key states. These initial reservations, the first of many to be made in the coming months, include $27 million in Montana and $36 million in Nevada.” BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — SABRINA BOUSBAR today is launching a Democratic challenge to Rep. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.). She previously was senior adviser in HHS’ Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response, and says she’d be the first female Gen Z member of Congress. WHEN EVERYTHING’S POLITICS — “How right-wing influencers turned airplanes and airports into culture war battlegrounds,” by NBC’s David Ingram: “In recent weeks, right-wing pundits have zeroed in on airline DEI programs and the presence of migrants in airports.” 2024 WATCH
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Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chair Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) speaks during a hearing on Capitol Hill Nov. 30, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | MANCHIN IN THE MIDDLE — Watch out for Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.), who’s toying with plans that could upend the presidential race, CNN’s Isaac Dovere reports. In private, the retiring moderate senator is musing about jumping in on the No Labels line if Trump is convicted of a crime or Biden suffers a health scare. And even if he doesn’t run, he wants to position himself as a national centrist figure critiquing Biden publicly for moving too far to the left. Manchin could be just as disruptive to No Labels, which he sees “as just his latest target to bend to his way,” using it for ballot access without committing to using its staff or plans. Dovere also reports on lots of tensions within No Labels — including LARRY HOGAN’s departure from the board out of frustration, not (as some speculated) to run for president. The organization is tussling over which party would get the presidential spot on their ticket, while a planned party convention is sputtering, he reports. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Biden is headlining a campaign fundraiser Sunday in Las Vegas, which will cost $100,000 to be a “host,” $50,000 to be a “co-host,” $25,000 to be a “champion,” $10,000 to be an “advocate” and $5,000 to be a “friend.” The event hosts include RICHARD PERKINS and SASHA SUTCLIFFE-STEPHENSON, JOE and CYNTHIA ASHER, BRIAN and MYRA GREENSPUN, GREG and DANA LEE, and LEXY LIONEL. (h/t Daniel Lippman) More top reads:
- Working the system: Trump is expected to sweep all the delegates in the Nevada caucuses, as NIKKI HALEY participates instead in the symbolic primary, Axios’ Erin Doherty previews.
- Notable quotable: Haley said about Trump’s endorsements in her home state, per SCETV’s Gavin Jackson, “I’m just gonna let the one on TIM SCOTT go — we have to live with our decisions.”
- 14th Amendment watch: The Illinois State Board of Elections this week is weighing whether to boot Trump off the ballot, per the AP.
| | | | A message from Instagram:   | | | POLICY CORNER TROUBLE BEHIND BARS — “Inside the Bureau of Prisons, a federal agency plagued by understaffing, abuse, disrepair,” by CBS’ Cecilia Vega on “60 Minutes” TRUMP CARDS
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Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at Big League Dreams Las Vegas on Jan. 27, 2024. | David Becker/Getty Images | SHOW ME THE MONEY — A jury ordered Trump to pay E. JEAN CARROLL $83 million in defamation damages, and a judge’s ruling is expected very soon in the civil business fraud trial in which prosecutors have asked for a $370 million penalty. That raises the prospect that the former president could be out $450 million in the span of a week (notwithstanding appeals) — a head-spinning sum even for such a wealthy man. It’s “a financial threat unlike any he has experienced in decades,” NYT’s Ben Protess, Maggie Haberman and Susanne Craig write, not to mention a threat to his ego and business reputation. So how will he pay for it? Bloomberg’s Erik Larson reports that his liquid assets are somewhere in the neighborhood of $600 million, though exact numbers are hard to pin down. “A $450 million worst-case penalty from the civil fraud trial and Carroll verdicts would eat up nearly 15% of his estimated net worth.” The Times reports that Trump may have to sell off some assets or parts of his investment portfolio, and take a sizable bite out of his cash reserves. Dipping into the donations he’s received in a political action committee, which is legally uncertain, would cover only a small amount of the penalty. BEYOND THE BELTWAY UNDETERRED BY OHIO — “GOP legislatures in some states seek ways to undermine voters’ ability to determine abortion rights,” by AP’s Christine Fernando: “Legislative efforts in Missouri and Mississippi are attempting to prevent voters from having a say over abortion rights … A proposal passed Wednesday by the Mississippi House would ban residents from placing abortion initiatives on the statewide ballot.” TRYING TO SHIFT THE NARRATIVE — “Democrats’ next crime fight: retail theft,” by Nick Reisman in Albany, New York: “Successfully pursuing retail theft could rob the GOP of a winning message on criminal justice and give Democrats a national roadmap for addressing the issue. Now New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL is waging her own war on shoplifters through a mix of tougher criminal penalties and funding.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Cecile Richards is battling brain cancer. Wes Moore shotgunned a beer. Peter Stahley has landed at Cassidy & Associates. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Substack Politics party for Elise Labott’s “Cosmopolitics” at the Doyle lounge Friday night: Saudi Ambassador Reema bint Bandar Al Saud, Bahraini Ambassador Abdulla Al-Khalifa, Adam Ereli, UAE Ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba, Kuwaiti Ambassador Al-Zain Al-Sabah, Jordanian Ambassador Dina Kawar, Tim Lenderking, Jane Harman, Ex-Im Bank Chair Reta Jo Lewis, Kevin Cirilli, Blair Gladding, Brianna Keilar, Barak Ravid, Carol Lee, Pam Stevens, Kathy O’Hearn, Janet Donovan, Francesca Craig, Shadi Hamid, Sarah Baker, Anne Gearan, Margaret Talev, Linda Roth, Brian Katulis, Alli Brennan, Christina Sevilla, Bay Fang, Nadia Bilbassy-Charters, Danielle Pletka, Evelyn Farkas, Nedra Pickler, Rodell Mollineau, Betsy Fischer Martin and Jonathan Martin, Zack Cohen, Kellyanne Conway and Barbara Starr. — SPOTTED at James Kimmey’s birthday celebration (the 36th annual James-A-Palooza) at the Longhorn Saloon over the weekend in Whistler, Canada: Cam Henderson, Matthew Hoekstra, Maggie Mulvaney Wiggins, Ericka Morris, Daniel Fisher, Danielle Stoebe, Joel Krautter, Anna Kecskés, Lacey Christ, Katherine Doyle, Frank Hu, Sonny Daniels and Bobby Matthews. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Roosevelt Holmes has returned to the Commerce Department as deputy chief of staff to the undersecretary at the Minority Business Development Agency. He previously was senior adviser in the White House Office of the National Cyber Director. TRANSITIONS — The Biden campaign is staffing up in New Hampshire, with Aaron Jacobs as state campaign manager and Liz Purdy as senior adviser. More from the Union Leader … Julietta Lopez is joining the Hispanic Federation as VP of federal affairs and network mobilization. She previously was director of community and external affairs for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. … Robert Blizzard has launched a new strategic public opinion research firm, UpONE Insights. He previously was a co-owner and partner at GOP polling firm Public Opinion Strategies. … Austin Agrella is joining the Aquia Group as a principal. with. He previously was director of oversight, parliamentarian and senior adviser to the House Appropriations Committee. … Will Shih will be deputy executive secretary at the Office of the USTR. He previously was economic policy adviser for Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.). … Hunt Wadsen is now government affairs adviser at Allegiant Air. He most recently worked on the government affairs team at Austal USA. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Kaitlyn McClure, a policy adviser at Covington and Burling, and Matt Raymond, director of science and regulatory policy at Astellas Pharma, welcomed Remy Louise Raymond on Jan. 21. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.) … former Speaker Paul Ryan … Robyn Bash … Bloomberg’s Lauren Dezenski and Eric Roston … Jocelyn Frye … Kristy Schantz … Steve Hagenbuch … House Energy & Commerce’s Gavin Proffitt … Seth Appleton … Amazon’s Mary Kate McCarthy … Kristine Grow of Arnold Ventures… POLITICO’s Annie Connell-Bryan and Michelle Bastian … Laura Rosenberger … former Rep. Lee Terry (R-Neb.) … Gaby Hurt of Sen. John Barrasso’s (R-Wyo.) office … Maureen “Mo” Elinzano of Rep. Doris Matsui’s (D-Calif.) office … John Newton of the Senate Agriculture GOP … Tom Collamore … Brian Donahue of CRAFT | Media/Digital … Geoff Smith of Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt’s D.C. office … Alex Morse … Emily Tara Weberman … Sam Conchuratt … Kim Ghattas … WaPo’s Jonathan Fischer and Jesús Rodríguez … Aaron Guiterman … Michael Duga … American Conservation Coalition’s Sariyah Khaldi … Alexis Torres of Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s (D-Texas) office … Ellen Ehrnrooth of Raymond James … Suzanne Leous of the American Society of Hematology … Nathan Janda of Feldman Strategies … International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens.
According to a new poll by Morning Consult conducted in November 2023, more than 75% of parents believe teens under 16 shouldn’t be able to download apps without parental permission.1
Instagram wants to work with Congress to pass federal legislation that gets it done.
Learn more.
1"US Parents Study on Teen App Downloads" by Morning Consult (Meta-commissioned survey of 2,019 parents), Nov. 2023. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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