| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | Plenty of questions are still hovering over the 2024 cycle. Some clues will be revealed this week. The latest campaign finance reports are due to the Federal Election Commission this Wednesday, covering the final quarter of 2023 for major presidential and congressional campaigns. We’ll also get updated reports from super PACs, leadership PACs and joint fundraising committees, which have not submitted filings since the summer. (Those reports will cover July through December.)
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We’ll get to see how much former President Donald Trump’s legal incidents have played into the campaign. | John Locher/AP Photo | Here are just some of the questions that are on our mind this week — and the reports we’ll be looking at for answers. — What does the (likely) Biden-Trump rematch look like? Although the presidential primary is still continuing on for both Democrats and Republicans, the two frontrunners have pivoted to each other. How much money each of them entered 2024 with is an important indication for what they’ll have at the starting gun of the general election. President Joe Biden’s operation touted finishing 2023 with $117 million on hand between the campaign and its affiliated committees. Future Forward, the outside group boosting Biden’s campaign, said it brought in $208 million in the last half of the year, but didn’t yet provide a cash-on-hand figure. The full picture is not yet apparent for Trump. His MAGA Inc. super PAC said it entered 2024 with $23 million on hand, but there are also not-yet-announced figures from his campaign and his other affiliated committees to consider. Biden’s campaign was relatively frugal in 2023. But we’ll see how much it has picked up the pace, considering it has made recent moves to staff up in battleground states and spent millions on advertising. We’ll also get to see how much Trump’s legal incidents have played into the campaign, including how much his operation spent on legal bills and if any developments — like the Colorado Supreme Court ruling in December saying he is ineligible to run for reelection for taking part in an insurrection — gave him a fundraising boost. — What did DeSantis’ operation do with its money? He may be out of the presidential race, but there’s still plenty of mystery surrounding Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ unsuccessful bid. The campaign relied heavily on super PACs to steer outreach on the ground and the airwaves. But the main PAC, Never Back Down, was plagued by infighting and departures of top officials in the final gasps of DeSantis’ effort, leading to two other groups — Fight Right and Good Fight — stepping in at the last second. So what happened amid all of that drama? Where did the DeSantis campaign spend its money? And how much did the operation put into Iowa, where he ultimately was unable to overcome Trump? We’ll get a clearer post-mortem for the candidate who was once seen as Trump’s chief rival. — What’s going on in Arizona’s Senate race? Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) really does not want to discuss if she’s running for reelection. But money talks. In the third quarter of 2023, Sinema’s fundraising slowed, although she still had more than $10 million in the bank. Make sure to take a look at her spending: Have her expenditures been picking up on advertisements or staff, for instance? She does still have a few months before the state’s filing deadline in April, but time is ticking — especially as Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake have been in the race for months. — Are House Dems bucking a trend? House Republicans continued their fundraising advantage over Democrats in competitive seats in the third quarter of 2023. But were Democrats able to flip that script as they tried to capitalize on the chaos in the GOP caucus, including its leadership change? Three Republican incumbents in battleground seats — Reps. Michelle Steel (Calif.), John James (Mich.) and Ryan Zinke (Mont.) — collected more than $1 million each in the third quarter, but not a single vulnerable incumbent Democrat broke through to seven figures. Did Republicans manage to maintain their momentum? — Where are we in the battle between The Squad and AIPAC? Some of the messiest primaries this year could be the ones featuring progressive Democrats and the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. The pro-Israel group is already playing in some races to oust members of The Squad, due in part to their support for Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas war. How much does the committee have at its disposal, and are these incumbents — who have called for more support from party leadership — ready? Some targeted members, like Reps. Ilhan Omar (Minn.) and Summer Lee (Pa.) have already announced hauling in more than $1 million each for Q4 as they prepare for an onslaught from AIPAC. Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 8 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 10 Days until the NY-03 special election: 15 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 26 Days until Super Tuesday: 36 Days until the Republican National Convention: 168 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 203 Days until the 2024 election: 281
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| | TRUMP TRIALS — “The most notable thing about the Republican call-and-response following the E. Jean Carroll verdict was that there was barely any response at all,” POLITICO’s David Siders writes. “That most Republicans were not talking about $83 million in damages reflects both a discomfort with, and an uncertainty about, the political implications of the verdict [for Trump]. It also hints at a latent fear: that the ruling may prove to be a turnoff for some independent or conservative-leaning women in the suburbs.” Meanwhile, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley took an aggressive stance at Trump’s most recent legal challenge, saying that “America can do better.” HALEY’S LONG HAUL — Haley is signaling that she’s staying in the race until Super Tuesday, and noted that she doesn’t need to win South Carolina to stay in. Still, Haley has a daunting path ahead to claim more delegates, as our Steve Shepard outlines. And even Americans for Prosperity Action, the top conservative group boosting Haley’s campaign, told donors over the weekend that she is facing an uphill battle, POLITICO’s Natalie Allison reports. The group is still backing her and “will analyze data in South Carolina and other early nominating states on an ongoing basis and allocate resources in the races where they can have the greatest impact.” BORDER SONG — Trump used his Nevada commit to caucus rally on Saturday to rail against Biden on the border — “a subject he has repeatedly leaned into as a base-rallying issue,” POLITICO’s Myah Ward writes. Trump took claim for the stall on the bipartisan border deal, vowing to “fight it all the way” and saying he told senators to “blame” him if the deal fails. ANOTHER ONE — Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.) endorsed Trump. BIDEN’S COURTING — Biden sought to solidify his standing among Black voters in South Carolina over the weekend, touting his policy achievements for Black Americans at a South Carolina Democratic Party event. Biden will almost certainly win the South Carolina primary next month, but the election will be “an important moment to demonstrate his support among Black voters — and to beat back critics concerned about Biden’s standing with the key bloc,” POLITICO’s Eugene Daniels and Myah write. But the campaign’s attempt to woo critical demographics isn’t a success everywhere. Biden campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez “traveled to Michigan on Friday to help shore up support among minority groups within the state seething over the administration’s Middle East policy,” POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu and Adam Cancryn report. “In a sign of the deep fissures on the ground, several Arab-American and Muslim leaders declined invitations to meet with Chávez Rodríguez.” I’M STILL STANDING — Democrat Marianne Williamson is still in the race. While she said she did discuss ending her bid with volunteers last week, she is now focusing her efforts on Nevada, acknowledging that she doesn’t “have any chance” in South Carolina. Williamson earned 4 percent of the vote in the New Hampshire primary.
| | 2024 WATCH — Don Blankenship is running for West Virginia Senate as a Democrat. Blankenship, a former coal executive who was imprisoned for conspiring to violate safety standards, unsuccessfully ran for the seat in 2018 as a Republican. The state Democratic Party quickly distanced itself from him, saying that Blankenship — who previously referred to himself as “Trumpier than Trump” — “does not represent the values of our party.” … Republican Justin Murphy, a former New Jersey deputy mayor, is running for Senate. Curtis Bashaw, a real estate developer, is also building out his campaign team and is poised to enter the race this week, per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein. Republican Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner has been in the race since September. … Democratic Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley is officially running for MI-08, a battleground district held by retiring Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee. Neeley launched an exploratory committee late last year. … Democrat Sabrina Bousbar is running in FL-13, a district targeted by national Democrats, against Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. She previously worked in the Department of Health & Human Services. Bousbar could be a rare Gen Z member of Congress. THE BIDEN EFFECT — New Jersey first lady and Democratic Senate candidate Tammy Murphy is looking to secure a spot on the state’s unusual primary ballot — where candidates are grouped based on county endorsements rather than by the office they’re running for — right below Biden, even in counties where she didn’t get party backing, POLITICO’s Daniel Han reports. “It is a seemingly small visual distinction but one that could lead many voters to ignore [Democratic Rep. Andy Kim], who would be forced into a separate column without the president. Such a move would require the consent of the Biden campaign.” Biden’s campaign said it is not getting involved in the primary battle to replace indicted Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez. THE TRUMP EFFECT — Some Republicans running in competitive House districts are keeping Trump at arm’s length, POLITICO’s Nick Reisman reports. Rep. Marc Molinaro of NY-19 said he’s “not getting into it anytime soon,” and in CA-22, Rep. David Valadao’s campaign said he is “not getting involved in presidential endorsements.” Mazi Pilip, who’s looking to hold NY-03 for Republicans in next month’s special election, also said that she’s not focusing on the presidential race. RETIREMENT RADAR — Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Md.) is retiring at the end of the term. Democratic Baltimore County Executive Johnny Olszewski has been raising money for the deep blue seat for months. NON-ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Pro-Israel group J Street rescinded its endorsement of NY-16’s Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman. The group said “that his denunciations of Israel made it impossible to continue endorsing him,” Forward’s Jacob Kornbluh writes. Bowman is facing a primary challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, who has the baking of AIPAC. IN THE STATES — Republican New Jersey state Sen. Jon Bramnick launched his 2025 gubernatorial bid over the weekend. Bramnick is running as an anti-Trump Republican in the hopes of replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy. PARTY PROBLEMS — None of the members of Nebraska’s congressional delegation received an endorsement from the Nebraska Republican Party after they declined to go through the application process to receive the party’s backing, the Nebraska Examiner’s Aaron Sanderford reports. Instead, the party’s State Central Committee endorsed three challengers to Sen. Pete Ricketts and Reps. Don Bacon and Adrian Smith. Bacon’s seat, NE-02, is a battleground district that Biden won in 2020. … The Oklahoma Republican Party voted to censure Sen. James Lankford over his work on a bipartisan border deal, per KOCO’s Addison Kliewer. But former chair Anthony Ferate insisted the meeting was illegitimate because not all members of the State Committee were officially called. Lankford is up for reelection in 2028. … On the note of confusing GOP state party dynamics: Trump threw his support behind former Rep. Pete Hoekstra as the new chair of the Michigan Republican Party. Hoekstra was named chair by a group of disgruntled activists there, although the RNC said it would not yet officially recognize him as such and Kristina Karamo still insists she is chair. (Backstory on the MIGOP here.)
| | NV-Sen, MT-Sen — Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ largest outside group focused on Senate races, is placing its first ad buys for the fall ad campaign in Nevada and Montana, our Ally Mutnick reports. That includes $36 million in Nevada and $27 million in Montana, and the ads will begin airing later this summer. CA-22 — Valadao and the California Republican Party are running their first spot on crime and the border.
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S GOVERNORS SUMMIT: Join POLITICO on Feb. 22 to dive into how Governors are wielding immense power. While Washington remains gridlocked, governors are at the center of landmark decisions in AI and tech, economic development, infrastructure, housing, reproductive health and energy. How are they setting the stage for the future of American politics, policies and priorities? How are they confronting major challenges? Explore these questions and more at the 2024 Governors Summit. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | Q4 TABS — NE-02 — Bacon raised over $780,000 and had over $1.5 million on hand. Democrat Tony Vargas raised $552,000 and had over $1.4 million in the bank. ... NY-18 — Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan brought in over $750,000. … PA-10 — Democrat Janelle Stelson, who is running in a crowded primary to unseat Republican Rep. Scott Perry, raised over $280,000. Stelson launched her campaign in October. … NC-AG — Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson raised over $2 million since announcing his attorney general bid in October. … Donors gave more than $353 million through ActBlue, the Democratic fundraising platform, in the fourth quarter of 2023. BEHIND THE CURTAIN — Senate Majority PAC is the behind Last Best Place PAC, the group that has been barraging Republican Montana Senate candidate Tim Sheehy on the airwaves, HuffPost’s Liz Skalka reports. It was expected that Democrats were running the PAC, but it was unclear who exactly it was. DEM DOLLARS — Progressive group MoveOn is planning to spend $32 million in support of Biden and Democrats running for the House and Senate, per The New York Times’ Reid J. Epstein. The move comes after the group laid off around 20 percent of its staff late last year.
| | — Aaron Jacobs will be the New Hampshire campaign manager for the Biden campaign. Jacobs was most recently part of the Biden write-in campaign for the state’s primary, and is a Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan alum. Liz Purdy, a longtime strategist in New Hampshire, will be senior adviser in the state. — Morgan Eaves will be executive director of the Kentucky Democratic Party. Eaves is a lawyer and previously worked in Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s administration. Current executive director Sebastian Kitchen is leaving the role to serve in Beshear’s administration. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I know what it’s like when no one is paying attention.” — Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) asking the crowd at a South Carolina Democratic Party event to listen to his speech. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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