Saturday, August 19, 2023

The overcapitalization of VC

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August 19, 2023
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How the overcapitalization of VC changed the funding landscape
Our capital demand-to-supply model generates a simple output measuring how much more (or less) capital is being supplied to the US VC market than is theoretically being demanded by startups.

The inputs use historical data, which over the past decade-plus hadn't gone through much market volatility.

That, of course, changed 20 months ago when the stock market began to fall, crossover investors pulled back from VC, and investors shifted their focus to profitability for portfolio companies rather than revenue growth.
 
Our estimates show five straight quarters of excess demand.

Our demand-to-supply model has shown the VC late-stage at a deficit of nearly 3x, meaning companies currently need about three times more capital than is entering the market.

This is a huge deficit, but up until recently, the market hadn't seen some of the expected impacts. Down rounds didn't increase by any significance until Q2 of this year (15.2% of completed rounds during the quarter), and company failings or last-option M&A haven't been major storylines, either.

However, what the model can't account for is the increasing time between rounds as companies choose not to raise and rely on current cash runways. Around mid-2021, the model shows that $55 billion extra had been invested into the venture market, and companies were coming back to raise at the quickest pace in our dataset.

This overcapitalization of the market has seemingly given many companies a better toolkit to navigate the current climate. Alongside layoffs and debt, two runway extenders, the venture market likely hasn't been in as bad of shape as the model shows. At least not yet.

For more data and analysis, download our free research: Accounting for the Overcapitalization of VC
 
Best,

Kyle Stanford, CAIA
Lead Research Analyst, Venture Capital
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Market Updates  
 
Europe's median late-stage VC valuation has fallen in 2023 from last year's peak—the first drop in nearly a decade.

Down rounds are on the rise.

Only angel and seed valuations continue to show resilience in the downturn, due to being the furthest removed from public markets.

Our new European VC Valuations Report illustrates how valuations have fared in an increasingly challenging market across stages, geographies, and sectors:
read the free report
 
 
Our UK Market Snapshot is the first in a new series that details trends in regional public and private markets.

Despite high inflation and interest rates, the UK economy avoided a recession in Q2 as GDP leveled out. PE fundraising has been strong, bolstered by mega-fund closes, and dealmaking increased from Q1 to Q2.

VC deal activity was also up in Q2, and the government bolstered the sector with plans to direct £75 billion from pension funds to startups.

There's much more data on the UK market to check out:
read the free report
 
 
Thematic Research  

Q2 2023 Public BDC Venture Lender Earnings

Earnings for the five public business-development companies that deal in venture debt are thriving.

Our research explores how public BDCs are managing in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and how the venture debt market may remain lethargic for a time:
get the free research
 
 
Industry & Tech Research  
 
PE dealmaking in healthcare services slowed further in Q2 as some heavily leveraged platforms strain under the growing cost of debt and impending maturity walls.

But as healthcare specialist firms continue successfully fundraising and the broadly syndicated loan market cracks open, we expect activity to recover in coming quarters.

Our new Healthcare Services Report breaks down PE trends and strategies, with spotlights on mental health services and medical spas, two of the hottest categories:
read the free report
 
 
Aquaculture and farm management software companies rebounded in Q2, both scoring their second-strongest quarters in VC deal value on record.

According to our new Agtech Report, we forecast sunnier skies ahead for the vertical and a positive dealmaking outlook through the rest of the year.

Keep an eye out for sustainable fisheries, biofertilizer startups, and retrofitting of farm machinery—all rapidly evolving segments:
read a free preview
 
 
VC activity in medtech this year has accelerated since Q1, with a larger array of categories seeing $100 million-plus deals—including surgical robotics and neurostimulation.

VCs are also intrigued by new tech related to precision medicine, sleep disorder treatments, and mixed-reality surgical navigation, according to our new Medtech Report.

And with improved hospital margins and robust patient interest in elective surgeries, the prognosis is good for investors to return to the space:
read a free preview
 
 
Webinars & Events  

Emerging Tech Talks: Two Boxes

E-commerce returns and reverse logistics play a crucial role in the online shopping experience.

On August 29, our analyst Eric Bellomo will host Kyle Bertin, the CEO of VC-backed Two Boxes, in a live discussion covering reverse logistics trends, the technology landscape, and the returns ecosystem outlook.

The event is free to attend: register here
  • Behavioral health: If you missed our webinar on improving behavioral health outcomes, with insights from professionals at Owl Health, Aurora Mental Health and Recovery, and Colorado Access, you can watch the replay.
 
In the News  

Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Demand for venture debt financing has been growing despite the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. [Inc.]

  • Why founder-owned businesses are often attractive targets for PE in the current environment. [Institutional Investor]

  • IPO volume may soon pick up—but don't expect a 2021-style explosion. [Yahoo Finance]

  • The factors CVC is likely weighing as the PE giant considers going public. [City A.M.]

  • Late-stage US VC valuations have grown since the start of the year but remain below recent peaks. [P&I]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
ICYMI  

Highlights from our other recent research:

Market updates
Thematic research
Industry & tech research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • Global Private Market Fundraising Report
  • Retail Fintech Report
  • Supply Chain Tech Report
  • Allocator Solutions: Scoring a Manager's Track Record
 

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