Friday, July 28, 2023

👀Shrinkflation’s New Enemy: The Trade-Down

Good morning. June's job data showed growth of 209,000 jobs. While that's a respectable number...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. High inflation over the past few years has led many companies to raise prices. Some have avoided raising prices by simply reducing the quantity of a product sold for a given price. When a company's "new and improved" product for $4.99 goes from 16 ounces to 12 ounces, the term is shrinkflation.

However, some consumers are also shifting away from brands entirely. They're engaging in what the CEO of Coca-Cola (KO) calls a "switch to private label brands." It's true that store brands tend to offer about the same product for a bit less. This trend could weigh on even the strongest of brands – especially if the CEO of the world's most recognized beverage brands has anything to say about it.

Traders and investors alike should watch for dropping profit margins at companies with strong brands and look to leave if there's a significant danger there.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,282.72 -0.67%
S&P 4,537.41 -0.64%
NASDAQ 14,050.11 -0.55%
*As of market close
Markets closed lower on Thursday, reversing an early morning rally.
Oil rose 1.4 percent, closing at $79.89 per barrel.
Gold dropped 1.4 percent, last going for $1,944 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with bitcoin at $29,170 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Caution May Lead to a Buying Opportunity for a Leading Company
Earnings season is in full swing. And investors can once again see good companies falter on less-than-perfect quarterly news. For investors looking beyond the quarterly sprint, however, it may open up some reasonable buying opportunities.

That's true for industry-leading firms. They tend to have higher expectations, and any market disappointment could lead to a buy, even if it's just a slight discount to where a company would otherwise trade.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: B. Riley Financial (RILY)
Bryant Riley, Co-CEO and major holder at B. Riley Financial (RILY), recently added 72,727 shares. The buy increased his stake by 1 percent, and came to a total cost just shy of $4 million.

He was joined by the other CEO, who bought 5,000 shares, at a cost of $275,000. A company director also bought 5,000 shares around the same time. This adds to a number of insider buys over the past year.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Media giant The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has been declining this year, amid dropping theme park attendance and a strike impacting production in Hollywood. One trader sees a further decline in the weeks ahead.

That's based on the August $82 puts. With 21 days until expiration, 4,679 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 156, for a 30-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $1.40 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
New Home Sales Finally Drop

Sales of newly built homes dropped in June for the first time since February. The sales data from May were also revised lower. New home sales have held up strong, as existing homes have been largely kept off the market. High mortgage rates have led potential sellers to hold onto their homes, rather than have to move and pay a higher rate.
Gas Prices See Biggest Two-Day Jump in a Year

Gasoline prices rose 5 cents per gallon between Tuesday and Wednesday, the biggest one-day increase in prices in nearly a year. It came following a 4 cent rise between Monday and Tuesday, marking the biggest two-day increase. Oil prices tend to see strong demand during the summer driving season.
Dow Hits Longest Winning Streak Since 1987

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for 13 days in a row ending on Wednesday. That's the longest streak of consecutive up days for the index since 1987. The index is up about 5 percent over its latest run higher in recent days, as traders see the lower likelihood of a recession this year.
Facebook Hits 3 Billion Active Monthly Users

Meta Platforms (META) reports that Facebook has hit 3 billion monthly active users in its most recent quarterly report. While the platform has declined in terms of user engagement from a younger demographic, nearly half the world's population uses the platform at least monthly. Facebook also has over 2 billion users who are active daily.
Justice Department Seeks Jail for Sam Bankman-Fried Before Trial

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is currently out on bail, but that may change soon. The Justice Department is looking to have his bail revoked, citing concerns over his behavior. Bankman-Fried is on trial for fraud charges connected to the collapse of cryptocurrency brokerage FTX last year.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
ALGN 12.785%
TXT 12.573%
LRCX 8.76%
RCL 8.158%
WDC 7.343%
BOTTOM
EBAY 10.215%
CMG 9.502%
LUV 9.322%
EW 8.96%
ROL 8.214%

Quote of the Day
I would say it's certainly possible that we will raise funds again at the September meeting if the data warranted. And I would also say it's possible that we would choose to hold steady and we're going to be making careful assessments, as I said, meeting by meeting.
- Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, speaking at a conference after Wednesday's meeting, suggesting that the bank is looking at the data, and may not raise interest rates any further if inflation continues to decline.

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