News: Imran Amed’s Weekly Briefing: 🏃🏾💸 Luxury Slowdown? Not So Fast.

Friday, July 28, 2023

Imran Amed’s Weekly Briefing: 🏃🏾💸 Luxury Slowdown? Not So Fast.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY: SATURDAY, JULY 29, 2023

This is Imran Amed. Welcome to my new weekly briefing, where I share the must-read stories from The Business of Fashion each Saturday.

LONDON — The luxury industry was bracing itself for a week packed full of Q2 earnings from all the major players — LVMH, Kering, Prada, Zegna and Hermès — a signal of how the sector is performing amid declining spending by aspirational customers in the key US market.

Industry heavyweight LVMH was first to report. The fashion and leather goods group still grew by 21 percent in Q2, driven by momentum in China and Japan, and the return of tourist spend in Europe. But its overall results did not meet consensus expectations, and there was a marked weakness in the US where Q2 sales contracted by one percent.

"We have a situation where, by and large, the aspirational customer is suffering a bit," CFO Jean-Jacques Guiony acknowledged to investors. "We are experiencing drops with entry price products, with online sales, with second tier cities — which is a clear sign that your aspirational customer is not shopping as much as they used to."

Over at rival Kering, the news was more dire. Gucci grew by only 1 percent in the second quarter, missing analyst expectations of 4.2 percent. Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta also showed slowing growth of 7 percent and 3 percent respectively. And revenues from Kering's "other brands" — which include crisis-prone Balenciaga — actually shrank by 1 percent.

But these lacklustre results were eclipsed (smart PR move!) by the announcement that Kering is acquiring 30 percent of Valentino for €1.7 billion ($1.9 billion) with an option to acquire 100 percent of the brand within five years. This is a boon for Kering as it looks to bolster its luxury brand portfolio to drive growth (smart acquisition move!).

Technically, Valentino didn't report its results this week, but the Kering announcement did underscore that Valentino did more than €1.4 billion in revenue in 2022, delivering €350 million in EBITDA. Kering's investment came in at a €5.7 billion valuation.

These results are impressive and reflect the deft management of Mayhoola chairman Rachid Mohamed Rachid and CEO Jacopo Venturini, as well as the creativity of Pierpaolo Piccioli. The transaction also reinforces the point that smaller Italian brands like Valentino are still at a structural disadvantage when competing with the big groups to reach the next milestone. Kering could now light a fire under Valentino to take it to €5 billion in revenue.

What's also remarkable is that they managed to surprise the market. I had not heard a peep about this anywhere, an increasingly rare occurrence with big fashion news. Well done to the bankers for keeping their mouths shut and to Kering and Valentino for managing to keep fashion's biggest deal of the year a secret.

Hermès was last to report its results this week, but came in first in the league tables. With a focus on high-net-worth customers, the ultra-luxe brand zoomed past all its rivals and consensus expectations, delivering 27.5 percent organic growth in Q2, including more than 20 percent growth in the US market.

As all the results rolled in this week, I couldn't help but notice it was some of the (relatively) smaller Italian brands that delivered some of the best performances of the first half of the year: Prada, Zegna and Moncler. Could they be the next acquisition targets as industry consolidation continues? Here are my key highlights from H2 results — and the brands you should be watching:

→ READ MORE

Here are more top picks from our analysis on fashion, luxury and beauty:

1. Big Brands Are Taking Back Unwanted Clothes. Where Do They Go? For anyone who missed it, an edifying new investigation by the Changing Markets Foundation showed how companies like H&M and C&A that are taking back unwanted clothes for resale and recycling may simply be shipping problems of overconsumption elsewhere. Instead of resold or recyled, these recycled clothes can end up downcycled, destroyed or dumped. The report embedded bluetooth tracking devices to find out where the clothes ended up. I wish BoF had thought of doing that! A very smart idea and worth your time to read. The journeys these clothes went on, often across multiple continents, were astonishing to take in.

2. Adidas Swamped With $565 Million in Orders for Unsold Yeezy Shoes. The BoF team spent quite a bit of time this week talking about the news of Adidas' blockbuster liquidation of leftover Yeezy shoes following the collapse of its partnership with Kanye West. Seems Yeezy fans are willing to look past its creator's misdeeds to snap up what's left of the sneakers, which will not be manufactured again.

3. Where Did Luxury's Aspirational Shoppers Go? After years of fuelling growth at luxury brands, the consumer segment — which typically opts for entry-level accessories — pulled back sharply on spending in the first quarter of 2023. BoF unpacks what happened and what's to come.

4. LVMH Inks Blockbuster Olympics Deal. LVMH made a much anticipated, but unusually timed mid-summer announcement that it is doing a big Paris 2024 Olympics partnership. The tie-up will see many of the group's brands integrated into the proceedings, which begin one year from now.

5. Can Gap Be Barbie-fied? Recently Marc Bain and Sarah Elson wrote about how Vintage Gap is more popular than current Gap, underscoring the challenge for Gap's new CEO, the architect behind Barbie's sensational comeback which has overtaken our social fees in recent months. Can he replicate the playbook to save a $15 billion fashion empire? I hope so. I worked at the Gap when I was 15 years old and still have a soft spot for the brand and what it stands for.

The BoF Podcast

Last week, Kering announced a new leadership structure and one of the biggest winners in the shuffle was Francesca Bellettini who is now deputy ceo of brand development in addition to her role as CEO of Saint Laurent. That makes her arguably the most powerful female executive in the luxury sector.

It's a smart move. Francesca has both the business chops and creative sensibility required to be a fashion CEO, and she has a very clear model for how to build luxury brands

This week on The BoF Podcast, I'm pleased to bring back this archive interview with Francesca from BoF VOICES 2018. Listening to it again, there are lessons for all of us on how to lead with purpose and authenticity.

Enjoy your weekend!

Imran Amed, Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief, The Business of Fashion

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