Monday, June 5, 2023

🌀Prepare for Slowing Wage Growth by Investing in the Trends Causing It

Good morning. The U.S. economy now has 3.8 million more jobs than during its pre-covid peak...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The U.S. economy now has 3.8 million more jobs than during its pre-covid peak. As a headline number, that's great news.

But the labor market is on track to change. One big change is AI, which could automate many tasks that could be done by well-paid, white-collar workers. And developments in robotics and automation have kept pressure on blue-collar jobs for years.

In the meantime, foreign workers are at a record high, while native-born workers are still well off their pre-pandemic peak. These trends all point to the potential to push wages lower over time, and create higher unemployment while the economy adjusts to these trends. It could also lead to numerous hot-button political issues.

The good news? Lower wage growth and the development of these trends can benefit companies, even though that may not develop the technologies themselves. The coming decades may prove a boom time for investors.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,762.76 +2.12%
S&P 4,282.37 +1.45%
NASDAQ 13,240.77 +1.07%
*As of market close
Stocks jumped again on Friday, following a strong jobs report.
Oil rose 2.6 percent, closing at $71.89 per barrel.
Gold dipped 1.5 percent, ending the day at $1,965 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded higher, with bitcoin at $27,247 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
The Drop in Spending on Goods Isn't Over, But the Fear Is Creating Oversold Opportunities
Economic data remains confusing. While the economy is slowing by several measures, we're still seeing signs of a strong economy, such as the labor market. One trend that's becoming more clear is that spending is declining on goods, but not necessarily on services.

That's leading to a drop in retail-related stocks. And while a slowing economy will mean a further slowdown in the sale of goods, it won't drop to zero.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Match Group (MTCH)
Bernard Kim, CEO at Match Group (MTCH), recently bought 31,439 shares. The buy increased his stake by 184 percent, and came to a total cost just over $1.08 million.

The last insider buy also came from the CEO last August, with a 16,000 share pickup. Otherwise, one company executive sold following the exercise of stock options, and a company director sold a small position back in March.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Micron Technology (MU)
Semiconductor company Micron Technology (MU) has seen shares rally 40 percent from their December lows, and are on track to erase the last 10 percent drop they've seen over the past year. One trader is betting on such a continued move higher.

That's based on the August $72.50 calls. With 74 days until expiration, 8,564 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 184, for a 47-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $3.95.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Unemployment Rate Rises

The U.S. economy saw 339,000 jobs added in May, however, a rising number of employees out of work led to a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7 percent. That's the first sign that the labor market may have stabilized, and that more job losses could lead to a higher unemployment rate in the months ahead.
Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Rise

The first quarter of 2023 saw an increase in commercial mortgage delinquencies. Banks and thrifts saw a 0.58 percent delinquency rate, up 0.13 points since the end of 2022. Life insurance companies saw a rise from 0.11 percent to 0.21. Multifamily mortgage delinquencies also rose. The data is challenging to compare, as what qualifies as a delinquency varies.
Oil Majors Look to Drill for Gas in Algeria

ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) are in talks with Algeria to drill for natural gas in the North African nation. The country is believed to be rich in natural gas, and the country passed a law in 2019 to offer more generous terms for foreign energy companies to drill for the resource.
Amazon Considering Mobile Service for Prime Members

Tech giant Amazon (AMZN) is in talks to provide a low-cost mobile service for its Prime members. The company may partner with Verizon (VZ), Dish (DISH), or T-Mobile (TMUS) for the service. Those familiar with the negotiations say a potential plan could take months to materialize, although Amazon later came out to deny the rumor.
Fidelity Cuts Valuation of Reddit Stake by 41 Percent

Investment firm Fidelity has cut its valuation in media platform Reddit by 41 percent. The company spent $28.2 million in August 2021 to buy a stake in the company, which valued Reddit at $10 billion a the time. Fidelity has also recently marked down other private investments, including a steep drop in its valuation of Twitter.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
DISH 16.162%
CAT  8.72%
MMM 8.56%
CE 8.007%
CZR 7.477%
BOTTOM
TMUS 7.537%
COO 4.436%
T 3.763%
VZ 3.513%
ANET 2.046%

Quote of the Day
A lot of the market focus is shifting from whether the government is going to default on its debts, which was never going to happen, to the more pressing issue of how much further interest rates are going to rise.
- Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial, on why the market will shift away from the debt ceiling crisis and back towards the Federal Reserve as a sign for which direction to take next.

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