Wednesday, May 31, 2023

Putin’s war comes home

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May 31, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Gabriel Gavin

Police block an area where investigators collect parts of a drone which damaged an apartment building in Moscow, Russia.

Police block an area where investigators collect parts of a drone which damaged an apartment building in Moscow, Russia. | AP Photo

STRIKING BACK — Stay vigilant, comrades, because Moscow is now a front-line city! That’s the shrill message residents of the Russian capital woke up to on the front page of the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper today.

“It is now quite a real prospect that a [drone] with several kilograms of explosives will fly into your window.”

For more than a year, the most conspicuous signs that anything was wrong in Russia was the fact ApplePay had stopped working, luxury shops shut their doors and the annual New Year’s celebrations were canceled. Despite Western sanctions and increasing state repression, life carried on more or less as normal. On Tuesday though, a fleet of eight drones soared through the skies above Moscow. Explosions were heard. Some buildings were damaged.

Ukraine has denied responsibility but, no matter who was behind it, the incident is the latest sign that, for Russians, the war is getting closer to home.

“One of the drones came down in our area,” one young Muscovite told POLITICO, granted anonymity to avoid falling foul of tough laws against criticizing the state. “Some people are freaking out, even though there’s still a fear of speaking about the situation.”

According to political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin, “the war is breaking into people’s minds and forcing itself to be talked about. That’s a bad sign for [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.”

It’s not the first time either. Last month, a blast shook the country’s second city, St. Petersburg, after a bomb detonated at a talk hosted by famous pro-war blogger Vladlen Tatarsky. In a James Bond-esque twist, the device was reportedly concealed in a bust of his own head, handed over as a gift by an apparent fan. Tatarsky was killed.

Then, just last week, a group of armed insurgents crossed the border from Ukraine and assaulted a border checkpoint inside Russia. Finding little resistance, they pushed into at least two nearby villages in Belgorod region as Moscow raced to find troops and hardware to repel them. The highways were backed up with residents fleeing in fear.

It’s always hard to know what Putin thinks, but it’s almost certain this wasn’t what he had planned when he gave the green light for the invasion of Ukraine well over a year ago in February 2022. The so-called ‘special military operation’ that Kremlin apparatchiks insisted would be over in a few days is now causing chaos inside Russia. Ukrainians have lived under the specter of daily air raids, shelling, power blackouts and unspeakable terror — now, they’re striking back.

This new phase in the war comes amid growing anticipation Kyiv will soon launch a counterattack to take back occupied territory in the east of the country.

Armed with new Western weaponry and intent on liberating their homeland, if and when Ukrainian troops start overrunning the positions held by poorly-equipped Russian conscripts, the Kremlin will need all the bodies it can get to throw into the breach.

“Men are particularly worried — the ones who can be conscripted and don’t have money to leave,” another Moscow resident says. The self-declared patriots who waved flags when there were no consequences may soon have to decide if they still support the war when it’s their husband, brother or son sent off to the front lines.

“It’s normal to ask yourself how all this can happen,” the Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper tells worried Russians, “but it doesn’t fit with the reality in which we all now live. The Ukrainian conflict has ceased to be something just on the TV screen.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on Twitter at @GabrielCSGavin.

 

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What'd I Miss?

— Oklahoma high court strikes down 2 abortion bans; procedure remains illegal in most cases: The Oklahoma Supreme Court ruled today that two state laws banning abortion are unconstitutional, but the procedure remains illegal in the state in most cases. In a 6-3 ruling, the high court said the two bans are unconstitutional because they require a “medical emergency” before a doctor can perform an abortion. The court said this language conflicts with a previous ruling it issued in March. That ruling found the Oklahoma Constitution provides an “inherent right of a pregnant woman to terminate a pregnancy when necessary to preserve her life.”

— Tuberville’s top military adviser bows out: Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) national security adviser told POLITICO that he has resigned over a Washington Post story suggesting he was instrumental in orchestrating the senator’s controversial blockade of hundreds of senior military nominations. A profile by the Washington Post on Friday depicted Morgan Murphy as taking credit for Tuberville’s hold, which has roiled the Department of Defense. The blockade is a response to the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy, which Tuberville opposes.

— Smith nominated to be the Marines’ top officer: The White House has nominated Gen. Eric Smith to be the Marine Corps’ top officer, according to a Senate notice. If confirmed, Smith would replace Gen. David Berger as commandant of the Marine Corps. Smith is currently the Marine Corps’ No. 2 officer. The nomination has yet to be announced by the service, but his package was received by the Senate on Tuesday, according to the chamber’s website. The move comes amid a larger shakeup within the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as several officers face the end of their terms.

Nightly Road to 2024

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie addresses a gathering during a town hall style meeting at New England College in Henniker, N.H.

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie addresses a gathering during a town hall style meeting at New England College in Henniker, N.H. Christie is expected to launch his second campaign for the Republican nomination for president next week in New Hampshire. | Charles Krupa/AP Photo

REMATCH — Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie plans to launch his second presidential campaign next week in New Hampshire, POLITICO has confirmed.

Christie’s entry into the 2024 contest, first reported by Axios, has all the makings for a potentially vitriolic primary as a small but growing field of candidates tries to keep former President Donald Trump from returning to the White House. Christie is expected to launch his 2024 run Tuesday at St. Anselm College in Goffstown, N.H.

The impending campaign bears a strong resemblance to the one Christie launched eight years ago, with a stable of longtime advisers expected to run the operation as well as a new super PAC, Tell It Like It Is. His 2016 campaign slogan was “Telling It Like It Is.”

ALL IN ON IOWA — Mike Pence is set to announce his presidential campaign in Des Moines next week. The June 7 launch, confirmed to POLITICO by a source familiar with Pence’s plans, was first reported by NBC News. The former six-term congressman and one-term Indiana governor has hopscotched around early states in recent weeks, but lavished much of his attention on Iowa, including stops in Des Moines and Ottumwa last week.

His choice of Des Moines for his announcement is a signal of how important the state’s socially conservative-rich Republican electorate will be to his chances in a GOP primary.

DOWN ON THE DEAL — Most Republican presidential candidates are panning the deal negotiated by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to suspend the debt ceiling, writes the Washington Post, while the GOP front-runner, former president Donald Trump, has remained conspicuously silent after earlier downplaying the impact of a potential default.

When Sen Tim Scott (R-S.C.) was asked today if he supports the legislation that McCarthy negotiated with President Biden that was unveiled over the weekend, he said “The short answer is no.” Scott’s posture puts him at odds with the Republican leader of his chamber, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who said today that he is “proud to support” the deal.

But Scott’s criticism echoed that of several other White House hopefuls, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. Former vice president Mike Pence, who has yet to formally announce a 2024 presidential bid, has also come out against the deal, calling it too timid.

RELATABLE ENOUGH — It was a full-on barrage of folksy from Ron and Casey DeSantis as they traveled through Iowa today, reports POLITICO’s Natalie Allison, with the theme of parenting and family life brought up at nearly all his campaign appearances.

DeSantis’ whirlwind campaign travel follows months of media attention that called into question the strength of his social skills. Both allies and critics wondered just how committed the Florida governor would be to the campaign trail — whether he would embrace the traditional early-state meet-and-greets in diners and factories that most other presidential contenders make part of their weekly agenda. The DeSantises, he suggested in story after story today, are young, they are energetic and they are just like you.

AROUND THE WORLD

CEASE-FIRE CEASED — As escalating clashes between rival factions in the military government of Sudan reach a second month, the Sudanese Armed Forces — one side of the conflict — have pulled out of cease-fire talks.

The talks, which have been facilitated by the United States and Saudi Arabia, were the one major attempt at mediation between the Sudanese Armed forces and rival paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces. Now, the war — which has killed at least 1,800 and internally displaced over one million — is likely to continue.

SOMETHING CAME UP — A massive gathering of European leaders on Thursday has suffered its first high-profile casualty, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pulling out at the last minute, write Clea Caulcutt and Suzanne Lynch.

The Turkish leader, who won five more years at the helm of his country in second-round elections on Sunday, will not travel to Moldova for the one-day summit, according to three officials involved in the preparations.

The European Political Community — a new collective launched in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine — is meant to draw together European leaders beyond the EU. More than 40 European leaders will be present Thursday, including those from all 27 EU countries plus non-EU countries like Britain and Turkey, as well as the Western Balkan nations.

The gathering, set to take place outside Chișinău, Moldova’s capital, is the second summit held under the EPC banner, following an inaugural meeting in Prague last October. Erdoğan attended that summit in the Czech capital but clashed with his Greek counterpart Kyriakos Mitsotakis during an end-of-summit dinner.

 

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Nightly Number

$5 million

The amount of money that the Justice Department is alleging West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s family coal businesses failed to pay in civil penalties assessed by the Department of the Interior. The 128-page civil action, filed Tuesday against 13 of the Justice family businesses and Justice’s adult son, comes as the governor, a Republican, launches a Senate bid against Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

RADAR SWEEP

AH-CHOO — Do you feel like your allergies are getting worse? Are you noticing more people sneezing in the park or on the street? It’s not just your imagination. Allergies are getting worse around the world due to a confluence of factors — many related to children spending less time outside and less time around others that helps them develop immunities. In addition, a shift towards more processed foods in diets has contributed. For NPR, Dave Davies spoke with Theresa MacPhail about her new book Allergic: Our Irritated Bodies in a Changing World.

Parting Image

On this date in 1960: Residents of Valdivia, Chile look over wrecked buildings in the wake of earthquakes that caused widespread damage and loss of life. The largest earthquake took place on May 22 and is the most powerful earthquake ever recorded by magnitude.

On this date in 1960: Residents of Valdivia, Chile look over wrecked buildings in the wake of earthquakes that caused widespread damage and loss of life. The largest earthquake took place on May 22 and is the most powerful earthquake ever recorded by magnitude. | AP Photo

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