Tuesday, April 11, 2023

📉Watch for Changes In Trends Rather than Trend Shifts

Good morning. By the time a trend shifts, early investors in that shift have made a big profit...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. By the time a trend shifts, early investors in that shift have made a big profit and can move on. That's why many traders look at changes in an existing trend. After all, no trend lasts forever. And it's likely that a trend will slow in the direction it's moving before it moves backwards.

Right now, the rate of growth of consumer debt is slowing. It's a sign that consumers may be tapped out… or that they don't want to finance as much with interest rates heading higher. Either way, it's a sign of an economic slowdown that's in line with other data.

For traders, we're likely to see continued volatility as positive news balances out negative news like this in the short-term. For investors, it's a sign to scale back, as it could mean another pullback in the months ahead. And, when consumers start to increase their spending again, it'll be a strong sign for a market rally.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,586.52 +0.30%
S&P 4,109.11 +0.10%
NASDAQ 12,084.36 -0.03%
*As of market close
Stocks traded mixed on Monday, with all three indices rallying off an initial drop.
Oil slid 1 percent, closing at $79.86 per barrel.
Gold dipped 1 percent as well, at $2,007 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies generally rallied, with Bitcoin hitting $29,225 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
This Slow and Steady Operator Is Setting Up to Win Long-Term
Some market sectors are cyclical. Others tend to be slow and steady. The financial sector has characteristics of both. It tends to be slow and steady most of the time, but fears hitting the financial sector can lead to big losses quickly.

Investors who can sort through real dangers and find undervalued companies capable of growing their market share can win when the sector shifts back to slow and steady.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Fedex Corp (FDX)
Amy Lane, a director at Fedex Corp (FDX), recently bought 830 shares. The buy came to a total cost of $193,289, and increased the director's stake by 54 percent.

This is the first insider buy at the company since January, when the same director made a 280 share buy. Generally, insiders have been sellers, following the exercise of stock options. That includes directors and executives, including the company CEO.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Wynn Resorts (WYNN)
Resort and casino operator Wynn Resorts (WNN) has rallied 53 percent in the past year. One trader sees a reversal playing out at some point by 2025.

That's based on the January 2025 $47.50 puts. With 646 days until expiration, 3,000 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 166, for an 18-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $2.46 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Rate Hike Expectations Rise Following Jobs Report

Following weaker-than-expected jobs data on Friday, traders see the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its May meeting. Traders gave just a 49 percent chance of a rate hike last week, but the slowing jobs data caused expectations to rise, with traders betting on a 71 percent chance.
Commercial Real Estate Risks Rise

Amid a rise in remote work trends over the past few years, many offices remain at least partially empty. Companies will likely look to reduce their office space needs as rents come up for renewal, which will likely add pressure to the commercial real estate market. That market is largely financed by smaller banks, and could pose more risks to those banks in the months and even years ahead.
Global PC Shipments Drop by One Third

Global sales of personal computers have dropped by 33 percent in the first quarter of 2023 compared to 2022. That marks the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. The drop exceeded expectations for a 29 percent drop. The drop is a reversal of the first two years of the pandemic, when PC shipments rose.
EPA Eyes Tighter Tailpipe Emissions

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing an announcement on tailpipe emissions later this week. The new limits could require as much as two-thirds of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2032, just 9 years away. Such a proposal would be the most aggressive climate regulations in U.S. history, if carried out.
Occidental Petroleum Plans Greenhouse Gas Capture Facilities

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) is working to build a direct-air capture facility. The technology will use large fans to suck carbon dioxide out of the air. The emissions will then be sucked down into geological formations. The technology would allow the oil and gas giant to continue developing fossil fuel technologies in a carbon-neutral way.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
WDC  8.222%
MU  8.043%
PXD 5.794%
BBWI 5.291%
SCHW 4.802%
BOTTOM
MKTX 2.211%
CAG 2.111%
INCY 2.092%
CBOE 2.081%
EXPE 2.061%

Quote of the Day
The March data effectively are a look back into the pre-SVB world; the payroll survey was conducted the week after the bank failed, far too soon for employers to have responded. But the hit from tighter credit conditions is coming.
- Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, on Friday's jobs data, and why the data may looks rosier than it seems in light of how little of the drop in the banking system has come under stress.

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