Wednesday, April 5, 2023

➡️Two Big Reasons for More Inflation Ahead

Good morning. Traders are once again starting to bet on oil rising to $100 in the coming months...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Traders are once again starting to bet on oil rising to $100 in the coming months, thanks to a recent output cut by OPEC members totaling over 1.1 million barrels per day. Higher oil prices will likely act as a form of inflation… but there's another reason to expect prices to stay higher for longer.

That's because rain-soaked California is now starting to miss out on key planting season in the state's lush farmland. Adding in flooding in the Midwest, and it's likely that there will be a reduced crop season this year… which will likely keep supply low and prices high.

With food and energy prices likely to remain strong, higher inflation seems likely in the months ahead. As does the possibility of a slowdown in other parts of the economy as consumers pay more prices at the grocery store and gas pump. Traders should continue to expect inflation to run hot and stocks to trade weak overall… although a few well trade higher from these rising prices.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,402.38 -0.59%
S&P 4,100.60 -0.58%
NASDAQ 12,126.33 -0.52%
*As of market close
Markets moved lower on Tuesday, as oil prices stabilized.
Oil rose 0.1 percent, last going for $80.50 per barrel.
Gold jumped 1.9 percent, ending at $2,039 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded higher, with bitcoin at $28,189 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Look For Companies Squeezing Out Unneeded Corporate Expenses
Many companies hire as they need to when growing like gangbusters. But when things go down, it's a time to assess the size of a company and its needs, no matter what sector it's in.

For some companies, the worst bloat can come from its executive offices. The growth of middle management can cause a big payroll expense to build up, and take away capital from lower-level workers that make a company's success possible.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: GameStop Corp. (GME)
Lawrence Cheng, a director at GameStop Corp. (GME), recently bought 5,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 13 percent, and came to a total cost of $113,900.

The buy came a year after another director bought 1,500 shares, paying just under $195,000. Over the past two years, insider buys have far exceeded insider sales, including a 100,000 share buy from the company's chairman just over a year ago.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: ConocoPhillips (COP)
Major oil and gas producer ConocoPhillips (COP) jumped over 9 percent on Monday as oil prices rallied on news of OPEC cuts. One trader sees shares continuing higher in the coming weeks.

That's based on the April 28 $107 calls. With 23 days until expiration, 11,135 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 109, for a 102-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $4.55 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Municipal Money-Market Funds Top 4 Percent

Yields on municipal money-market mutual funds have now topped 4 percent for the first time in years amid the recent market volatility. Typically, municipal bonds and other funds offer lower yields than other securities, but have tax advantages that confer similar or even higher after-tax yields.
Retailers Work on Made-to-Fit Boxes for Shipping

In an effort to reduce the waste and cost of shipping online orders, a number of retailers are investing in technologies that can create made-to-fit boxes. That includes major merchants such as Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN). The move comes as online sales accounted for 14.7 percent all retail sales, up from 5.8 percent a decade earlier.
Cryptocurrency Exchange Bittrex Shuts Down

Bittrex, a cryptocurrency exchange, is shutting down its operations, at least in the United States. The exchange joins a number of other exchanges that are moving out of the U.S. market in recent months. The company cited the "regulatory environment" as a reason for the decision to shut down U.S. operations.
Unicorn Quantexa Hits $1.8 Billion Valuation in Latest Funding Round

Online fraud and customer data management company Quantexa has raised $129 million at a valuation of $1.8 billion in Series E funding. The company last raised capital two years ago, nabbing $153 million at a $800-900 million valuation. Quantex largely provides AI software to major banks and other financial services companies.
Dogecoin Surges as Shiba Inu Replaces Twitter Bird

Cryptocurrency dogecoin jumped nearly 30 percent on Monday, as Elon Musk replaced the Twitter bird icon with a Shiba Inu in reference to dogecoin. The change came within two days of Musk asking a judge to throw out a racketeering lawsuit accusing the billionaire of running a pyramid scheme to support dogecoin prices.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
NEM  3.578%
EXR  3.074%
EA  3.045%
NOW 2.418%
TTWO 2.393%
BOTTOM
STLD 9.084%
URI 8.312%
VLO 8.273%
MPC 7.726%
NUE 7.193%

Quote of the Day
This current macro backdrop isn't conducive for a meaningful stock market rally: The economy is recession bound as the consumer is clearly weakening, lending is about to get ugly, energy cost uncertainty will remain elevated for a while, and monetary policy is finally restrictive and about to break parts of the economy.
- Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, on why the market may not trend too much higher from here, and will likely trade in a range in the months ahead.

Sponsored Content
The Results Are In: Bryan Perry's "Million-Dollar Beta Test"
Beta Testers following Bryan's trading system had the opportunity to collect:
  • $1.07 million in 9 months (2020)
  • $1.04 million in 10 months (2021)
  • $1.17 million in 8 months (2022)
Click here to see how these extraordinary trading gains came to pass... and find out what Bryan has planned for 2023 – his fourth and final Beta Test.


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