News: Finland’s in, Ukraine

Wednesday, April 5, 2023

Finland’s in, Ukraine — not yet

Apr 05, 2023

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Greetings! I’m Suzanne Lynch, coming to you from NATO’s cavernous headquarters in Brussels where a two-day meeting of foreign ministers is drawing to a close. It’s been a historic few days here as the Finnish flag was added to the ring of flagpoles that surround the heart of the military alliance here on the outskirts of the Belgian capital. (Fun fact: Brussels was not always the location for NATO headquarters – it was first based in London, then Paris, before moving to Belgium in 1967.)

Finland’s entry into the alliance is a hugely crucial moment for NATO – all of a sudden its border with Russia has doubled, with the alliance getting an all-important foothold in the northernmost reaches of Europe and right into the Arctic Circle. What does that mean for the war in Ukraine? Read on.

INTERVIEW: UKRAINE’S FOREIGN MINISTER DMYTRO KULEBA

With war in Ukraine dominating discussion at the NATO foreign ministers meeting this week, Global Insider sat down with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at POLITICO’s office in Brussels.

ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: Kuleba was in town to attend a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine commission — a body that governs relations between NATO and Ukraine (a non-member) — at the alliance’s headquarters Tuesday.

MAKING HIS CASE: But for Kuleba it’s high time that Ukraine was given the green light to join. “This old concept of why Ukraine should not be given membership is outdated. It doesn’t meet the reality check,” he said, highlighting that the Bucharest Summit in 2008 first recognized NATO’s open-door policy. “The truth is that we are not getting any closer to that open door,” he said.

THE FINLAND ARGUMENT: He pointed to the case of Finland. “I'm happy for my friends from Finland who are becoming NATO members and who share more than 1000 kilometers of border with Russia. So NATO is not afraid of having a joint border in the north, but somehow is afraid of having a joint border in the south?” he said, referring to the argument that Ukraine’s proximity to Russia would bring the alliance right up to Russia’s borders (and what Moscow sees as its sphere of influence).

WHAT HE WANTS FROM THE WEST AS KYIV PREPARES FOR A COUNTEROFFENSIVE: “We need to speed up deliveries of everything that has already been pledged since literally last December. That is happening, and a big part of my conversations here in Brussels will be about speeding up some very specific deliveries like car vehicles, artillery, ammunition and tanks in particular.

“The second part of the preparation is actually to get new pledges, to ensure sustainability of supplies — because this war, it’s not a sprint, it's a marathon. And while, for example, you may have 100 shells in your stock, and you know that you can count on them for the counteroffensive, you need to know how many shells you will have in stock in two or three months.”

THE QUESTION OF WAR FATIGUE: As the war settles into its second year, Ukraine is striking a tricky balance as it deals with its allies — on the one hand, arguing that the war is far from over as a reason why it needs more weapons; on the other hand conscious that talk of an endless war may scare them away, particularly in the United States, where the front-runners for the Republican nomination for president — Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis — have already questioned continuing support for Ukraine.

Kuleba was blunt: “If someone in Europe or beyond Europe gets tired of the war, they will welcome the war on their doorstep. It's very simple. It doesn't matter how high the price of supporting Ukraine is, which is not as high as the critics are actually claiming to be — the price of fighting the war yourself will be much higher.”

No troops on the ground: While careful to express gratitude for Western help, Kuleba pointed out that Ukraine has not actually asked for foreign boots on the ground, unlike in other foreign conflicts where the U.S. and allies have sent troops. “We are not asking foreign boots on the ground. We are one of the very few nations in the world who have not asked foreign troops to be deployed to our land.”

ON CHINA: As focus in Europe and the United States in recent weeks has turned to China’s possible role in the war (and peace), Kuleba said he believes that China has not made what he calls its “final stance on the war.” As the war evolves “it will prompt China to lean towards one side or another,” he said. “Of course, their official policy will be to stay above the fight, but life will dictate circumstances. I don't have a feeling that they have made their choice.”

On Xi’s proposed peace plan he is clear, however: There is no question of any proposal that allows for Russian rule over any Ukrainian territory — and yes, that includes Crimea.

“I said it to my Chinese counterpart, the foreign minister in particular, that there is one thing that really is the common foundation for your foreign policy and our foreign policy is the principle of territorial integrity. So anything you can do to restore peace that will respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders, is welcome. Every peace concept that is based on a different principle will be rejected.”

NEW PRODUCT UPDATE - POLITICO's China Watcher now hits inboxes twice weekly (Tuesday & Thursday). POLITICO's EU-China Correspondent Stuart Lau will be writing this expanded newsletter together with our colleague Phelim Kine from across the Atlantic in Washington. We’re living in a world where geopolitics are shaped and reshaped in Brussels, Washington, and Beijing — China Watcher will attempt to decode these global relationships to give our readers a full picture of the world’s diplomatic relations with China. Sign up to China Watcher

EU LEADERS HEAD TO CHINA

It may be a busy week in Brussels, but all the attention is on China as some of Europe’s senior officials head to Beijing. French President Emmanuel Macron and the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, are in the country and due to meet President Xi Jinping on Thursday.

WHEN IS A STATE VISIT NOT A STATE VISIT: Von der Leyen and her team have been keen to stress that she is following a different itinerary than Macron, who is on a state visit and will travel to Guangzhou as well as Beijing. Macron will also be fêted at a state dinner Thursday night. Von der Leyen represents the European Union as a whole — not any one country — so the optics matter.

WALKING A FINE LINE: Macron is bringing a large delegation of business leaders with him. China is also expected to announce a new order of Airbus planes. But the other focus for the two leaders is geopolitics, as China emerges as a much more assertive power. Speaking in Beijing ahead of his meeting with Xi, Macron said he did not agree with China’s 12-point peace plan but argued that Europeans should engage with China to find a resolution to the war in Ukraine.

WASHINGTON IS WATCHING CLOSELY: For the EU, the calculation is more tricky. The White House has been pushing European allies to take a tougher stance on Beijing, warning about China’s intentions when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Its not-so-coded message: Europe should not make the same mistake as it did with Russia — building up dependencies on a geopolitical foe.

REALPOLITIK: But it’s not so clear-cut in Europe, where countries value their economic links with the world’s second-largest economy.

FACING UP TO BEIJING: As my colleague Stuart Lau and I write in this piece, the trip raises uncomfortable questions for Europe. A once-in-a-lifetime pandemic and Russian-instigated war on the Continent meant that China could take a backseat over recent years. Not anymore. Beijing’s sharpening rhetoric, its economic retaliation against EU members and — most notably — concerns about China warming to Russia have made it impossible to avoid the subject.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

TRUMP INDICTED: The former U.S. president may have met his legal reckoning as he was charged with 34 felonies in a Manhattan court Tuesday (he pleaded not guilty, of course). It certainly brought this reporter back to the heady days of the Trump presidency when I was a correspondent in Washington and covered the minutiae of some of the charges now being leveled at Trump. Catch-up on all the latest with Josh Gerstein here.

MEET FINLAND’S NEW PM: In a quirk of timing, Finland’s accession to NATO coincided with huge political change in Helsinki, with everyone’s favorite dancing prime minister, Sanna Marin, defeated by the center-right party led by flair-free, steady hand Petteri Orpo in Sunday’s general election, leading us to ask: Is boring back? Here’s Charlie Duxbury on why Finns went for Mr. Dependable.

SAUDI’S LEVERAGE: The shock move by Saudi Arabia and a small group of countries to cut oil production Sunday sent energy markets into turmoil this week — and served as a reminder of who Saudi’s friends really are. The jump in oil prices precipitated by the production cut is benefiting Russia. China is also one of the big purchasers of Saudi oil. More from Paola Tamma here.

ZELENSKYY IN POLAND: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is visiting Warsaw on Wednesday, where he will meet his Polish counterpart Andrzej Duda in his first official visit to Poland since the beginning of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

GLOBETROTTERS

MOVES

NEW JOB 1: New Zealand Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has appointed his predecessor Jacinda Ardern as special envoy for the Christchurch Call anti-terror initiative. More here.

NEW JOB 2: Former Irish diplomat Declan Kelleher who previously served as ambassador in Beijing and Brussels, has been appointed chair of the governing board of the European Policy Centre. He succeeds fellow Irishman David O’Sullivan, who is now the European Commission’s sanctions envoy (though he remains a member of the EPC board).

BRAIN FOOD

The Economist’s Charlemagne column ponders the impact next year’s bumper election season — the U.S. presidential ballot and the European Parliament vote will be in 2024 — will have on Europe. “One of these ballots will be enormously consequential for Europe, potentially reshaping its entire political landscape. The other will elect members of the European Parliament.” Ouch.

Maduro the Survivor: Writing in Foreign Affairs, Michael Shifter argues that Washington must play the long game when it comes to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. “Today, there is little hope that Maduro will relinquish power or lead the country down a more democratic path.”

Europe’s heroin market could soon be in for a supply shock, writes Noah Alcala Bach in POLITICO. Almost all heroin consumed in Europe comes from Afghanistan, where the Taliban have imposed a ban on poppy cultivation that will take effect in the coming weeks. The likely poppy shortage could make it more profitable for criminals to manufacture synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, which are much stronger than natural heroin and easier to overdose on.

THANKS TO editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner.

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