Friday, April 14, 2023

The GOP’s abortion problems are only beginning

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Apr 14, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

Presented by

Airlines for America

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaking in front of two American flags.

This morning — from Florida to New Hampshire to Washington, D.C. — voters are waking up to news about Republican abortion bans that remain unpopular. | Kaytie Boomer/The Bay City Times via AP

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DRIVING THE DAY

TODAY — Suspected leaker JACK TEIXEIRA expected to appear in court in Boston … DONALD TRUMP and MIKE PENCE speak at the NRA’s summit in Indianapolis … JANET YELLEN addresses the World Bank’s annual spring meeting in Washington … RON DeSANTIS speaks at Liberty University’s convocation

EYES EMOJI — Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) on whether Sen. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D-Calif.) can continue to serve, on CNN last night: “I’m hopeful that she can. Again, I want to see what happens in the next month or so. You give her that time to be able to come back. But if she can’t come back month after month after month, with this close Senate, that’s not just going to hurt California. It’s going to be an issue for the country.”

A WAKE-UP CALL — This morning — from Florida, where Gov. DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban last night, to the early primary state of New Hampshire, where pro-life GOP presidential candidate Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) struggled to figure out where he stood on abortion restrictions, to Washington, D.C., where the Supreme Court will once again decide the fate of abortion policy in America — voters are waking up to news about Republican abortion bans that remain unpopular:

“DeSantis signs Florida’s 6-week abortion ban into law,” by Arek Sarkissian: “The legislation will upend Florida’s status as an abortion haven in the south, cutting off access for thousands who would otherwise travel from neighboring states each year for the procedure. … Florida now joins at least 12 other states — including Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and Louisiana — that have approved bans on abortions after six weeks, a point at which many people don’t yet know they’re pregnant.”

“DeSantis could be walking into a general election trap on abortion,” by Sally Goldenberg and Alice Miranda Ollstein: “DeSantis is banking on support in the primary from anti-abortion voters, particularly those angry at Donald Trump. … But a six-week ban pushes the outer boundary of anti-abortion rights proposals. And it could spell trouble for DeSantis among independents and suburban voters in a general election, if he makes it that far.”

“Tim Scott gets tripped up on abortion ban questions,” by Natalie Allison and Lisa Kashinsky: “Sen. Tim Scott has quickly discovered how tricky abortion politics can be when forced to discuss them on the national stage. On his second day of campaigning since announcing a presidential exploratory committee, the South Carolina Republican pivoted, deflected and avoided specifics when repeatedly pressed on where he stood on federal abortion restrictions.”

“Tim Scott supports national 20-week abortion ban, would consider 15-week limit,” by Fox News’s Paul Steinhauser

“Spokane federal judge rules abortion drug must remain available in 17 states and D.C., setting up almost-certain U.S. Supreme Court review,” by The Spokesman-Review’s Kip Hill

“Justice Department to Appeal to Supreme Court on Abortion Pill,” by WSJ’s Laura Kusisto and Liz Essley Whyte

Now, consider some numbers:

  • 63%: That’s the percentage of Americans who oppose “laws that ban abortion after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, usually around the sixth week of pregnancy.”
  • 52%: That’s the percentage of Americans who “oppose restrictions that make it illegal to obtain an abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.”

These are bad numbers for Republicans. Whether you are DeSantis signing a six-week ban or Scott (tentatively) supporting a 15-week ban, you are still on the losing side of public opinion. That’s to say nothing of the Republicans who support outright bans, where public support ranges from the single digits to the low 20s, depending on whether there are exceptions for the life of the mother, incest or rape.

Banning medical abortions would be an unmitigated political disaster for Republicans. To get a sense of how obvious this is to politicians, consider two more numbers:

  • 69: That’s the number of Republicans in Congress, including just 11 senators, who signed onto an amicus brief supporting Judge MATTHEW KACSMARYK’s recent ruling banning mifepristone, which has been used for more than 20 years in medical abortions.
  • 240: That’s the number of Democrats, including 50 senators, who signed an amicus brief condemning the Texas ruling. 

There’s a reason that nearly all Democrats are loudly opposing Kacsmaryk’s ruling while most Republicans have been hiding from reporters asking questions about it.

THE PLAYBOOK INTERVIEW: PAUL RENNER — This week on Playbook Deep Dive, we sat down with the speaker of the Florida House of Representatives on the day before he pushed through the 6-week abortion ban. Renner, a retired naval officer and staunchly pro-life preacher’s son from northwest Florida, explains why the bill passed yesterday was actually a “compromise” plan.

A quote from Florida state House Speaker Paul Renner is pictured.

And he tells us what it’s like as the tip of the spear in the Florida legislature implementing DeSantis’ wish list. Is he helping the Florida governor build a record of accomplishments that can launch him to the White House? Or is he weighing down the governor with so much right-wing baggage that he crashes upon liftoff? Listen here … Download and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify 

Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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TALK OF THIS TOWN — Michael Schaffer’s new column this morning: “Dan Snyder and the Puniness of D.C.’s Business Elite: In a city of politics and government titans, the commercial scene was never meant to catch up.” … Speaking of which: “Josh Harris Reaches $6 Billion Deal To Buy NFL’s Commanders,” by Sportico’s Scott Soshnick and Eben Novy-Williams

JACK THE DRIPPER — Yesterday, federal officials arrested Jack Teixeira, a 21-year-old member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, in connection with the massive leak of U.S. intelligence documents. The FBI took Texeira into custody at a home in North Dighton, Mass., nearly a week after the hunt for one of the government’s most consequential leakers in recent decades began. Per CNN’s John Miller, authorities were surveilling him for at least two days prior to his arrest. Latest updates from the NYT

What we know about Teixeira:

WaPo: Teixeira is from a military family, and is described by friends as patriotic, libertarian, religious and gun-loving. He enlisted in 2019 and worked as a specialist in online communications. Among the online handles used by Teixera, whose posts routinely veered into outright bigotry, was the can’t-make-this-up “jackthedripper.”

NYT: Remarkably, the Times, which was first to identify Teixeira, reports that it was able to do so by zeroing in on the granite kitchen countertop visible in his childhood home in the pictures of intelligence documents.

The official fallout:

CNN: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN ordered a review of access to intelligence in the Defense Department and procedures to prevent something like this from repeating.

Bloomberg: “U.S. Embarrassed,” blares the headline atop a piece quoting a former senior editor of the President’s Daily Brief as saying, “It’s outrageous that these kinds of documents would be shared with an insignificant national guard unit.”

The Atlantic: JULIETTE KAYYEM, who used to oversee the Massachusetts Air National Guard, writes that “I have no idea why one of its members would even have access to the kind of high-level secrets that recently showed up on a Discord server.”

POLITICO: Our colleague Lara Seligman reports that Pentagon officials are less surprised: “It’s not uncommon for relatively junior service members to have access to top-secret information … In fact, more than 1 million U.S. government employees and contractors have that privilege.”

The political fallout: Some prominent far-right figures zagged yesterday in their response to Teixeira’s arrest, showing just how outré the New Right’s foreign policy views have gotten.

  • “Jake Teixeira is white, male, christian, and antiwar. That makes him an enemy to the Biden regime,” tweeted Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), without evidence. “And he told the truth about troops being on the ground in Ukraine and a lot more. Ask yourself who is the real enemy?”
  • Fox News’ TUCKER CARLSON sounded a similar note on his show. “What’s happening to this leaker now is what happens to anyone who contradicts the National Security State and their obedient servants in the media,” Carlson said, falsely. “You go to prison.”

Look for this to develop into a political headache for KEVIN McCARTHY and congressional Republicans when they’re back in town next week.

 

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PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN’S FRIDAY (all times Eastern):

6:45 a.m.: The president will leave Dublin for County Mayo, Ireland, arriving at 8:15 a.m.

9 a.m.: Biden will tour the Sanctuary of Our Lady of Knock.

10:30 a.m.: Biden will tour Mayo Roscommon Hospice.

12:30 p.m.: Biden will visit the North Mayo Heritage and Genealogical Centre’s Family History Research Unit.

4:15 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks at Saint Muredach’s Cathedral.

5:40 p.m.: Biden will depart to begin the journey back to Dover, Del., and then Rehoboth Beach for the weekend.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ FRIDAY (all times Eastern):

9:20 a.m.: The VP will depart for NYC, arriving at 10:25 a.m.

Noon: Harris will speak at the National Action Network national convention at the Sheraton Hotel.

2:20 p.m.: Harris will leave NYC to head to LA, arriving at 8:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out.

 

GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Residents paddle and walk along a flooded road Thursday, April 13, 2023, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. Over two feet of rain fell causing widespread flooding, closing the Fort Lauderdale airport and turning thoroughfares into rivers. (AP Photo/Marta Lavandier)

Residents paddle and walk along a flooded road Thursday, April 13, 2023, in Fort Lauderdale, Fla. | Marta Lavandier/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

STICKING TO THEIR GUNS — Today, the focal point of the nascent 2024 campaign will be Indianapolis, where Trump and Pence will address the NRA’s leadership summit in person. (Other 2024 hopefuls, including ASA HUTCHINSON, are speaking live; DeSantis, Scott and NIKKI HALEY are speaking via video.)

Two big dynamics to watch:

1. THE INTER-PARTY SQUABBLE: This morning, we have an exclusive on a White House fact sheet that the administration will blast out today, chiding Republicans gathered at the NRA confab, as well as the GOP House, for failing to address “the number one killer of kids in America.” Read the memo here

2. THE INTRA-PARTY SQUABBLE: The NRA meeting will also be a big chance for Pence to outflank Trump on the right. We’re told that though Pence won’t name-check Trump in his speech, he’ll draw a sharp contrast with the former president, who soured some gun rights activists by supporting bump-stock bans and red-flag laws, among other measures.

“It will make for interesting political theater,” one Republican tells our colleagues Adam Wren, Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison. We’re told that while the two men will appear at the same event for the first time since leaving office, they’re not expected to cross paths since their speeches are not back-to-back.

SPEAKING OF PENCE — A birdie tells us that Pence will continue to try to distinguish himself from his 2024 opponents later Friday evening in his speech to donors at the RNC retreat in Nashville. This time, though, he’ll swipe at DeSantis.

Pence, a fiscal conservative, plans to lean harder into his warning about “populism unmoored from conservative principles” — a jab at the Florida governor, who has used the governor’s mansion as a cudgel against Disney and other businesses who oppose his policy priorities.

FIGURATIVE RAIN CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE — “‘What are you waiting for?’: DeSantis’ 2024 supporters worry he’s launching too late,” by the Miami Herald’s Alex Roarty and David Catanese

LITERAL RAIN CLOUDS IN THE SUNSHINE STATE — “Donald Trump Jr. dings DeSantis for not canceling travel during Florida flooding,” by Lee Hudson

STRANGE BEDFELLOWS — “The Conundrum of the DeSantis Base: Pro-Trump and Anti-Trump Voters,” by NYT’s Michael Bender

TOP-ED — “The Biden-Trump Plan to Cut Social Security,” by DAVID McINTOSH in the WSJ … Notes NYT’s Maggie Haberman: “Existence of this op-ed suggests DeSantis allies see the Trump attacks on this front as a vulnerability for the Florida governor.”

JUDICIARY SQUARE

DOUBTING THOMAS — The scrutiny of Justice CLARENCE THOMAS and his friendship with GOP megadonor HARLAN CROW continues with a new ProPublica revelation from Justin Elliott, Joshua Kaplan and Alex Mierjeski: Crow’s company bought three properties from Thomas and his family in Georgia in 2014, which Thomas never disclosed in what experts say is an apparent violation of the law. It’s also “the first known instance of money flowing from the Republican megadonor to the Supreme Court justice.” Crow tells the outlet he bought Thomas’ mom’s house with the intention of preserving it as an important site for a future public museum. And he says he bought them at market rate. Thomas didn’t comment.

Slate adds another detail: Thomas’ mom, LEOLA WILLIAMS, still lives in the house Crow bought. Joel Anderson was there to interview her for a podcast just two weeks ago.

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court allows $6 billion student loan debt settlement,” by NBC’s Lawrence Hurley

TRUMP CARDS

TRUMP’S NO GOOD, VERY BAD DAY — Under all manner of legal and investigative fire, the former president and current GOP frontrunner saw a flurry of developments yesterday across several judicial fronts. Here’s the latest:

The federal classified docs probe: Former acting DNI RICHARD GRENELL testified before a grand jury under subpoena in special counsel JACK SMITH’s investigation of documents at Mar-a-Lago. More from CNN

The federal Jan. 6 probe: Former DNI JOHN RATCLIFFE testified before a grand jury in Smith’s investigation of the efforts to overturn the 2020 election. More from ABC

  • The big picture: Ratcliffe is one of the final group of Trump aides to be forced to testify in the case, which now “is approaching an important milestone” as Smith has bested Trump in almost every battle over the investigation’s scope, NYT’s Alan Feuer and Glenn Thrush write. It could soon move from fact-finding to decisions about charges.

The Trump Org fraud lawsuit: Trump and his lawyers were at New York AG TISH JAMES’ office for a whopping eight hours as he sat for a second deposition in her civil fraud lawsuit against the Trump family and company. (Depositions in the state can last up to seven hours with breaks.) The case is in pre-trial discovery. More from CBS

The E. JEAN CARROLL rape/defamation cases: The D.C. Court of Appeals declined to shield Trump from one of Carroll’s two lawsuits against him, saying it could not determine whether he should be granted presidential immunity from a defamation suit. It now goes back to an appeals court in Manhattan.

The other case, which is speeding toward a trial later this month, was roiled by the accusation from Trump’s team yesterday that Carroll had hid the fact that Democratic donor REID HOFFMAN helped to fund her lawsuit. They asked for a trial delay as a result. Last night, the judge declined to grant a postponement. More from Reuters

MORE POLITICS

CASH DASH — “McCarthy, Scalise, cash transfers fuel House GOP campaign arm fundraising haul,” by Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser

“Jeffries raises $33.4 million in first quarter as top House Dem,” by NBC’s Ali Vitali

CATCHING MITT — “Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson forms committee to explore run for Romney’s Senate seat,” by the Deseret News’ Suzanne Bates

GUESS WHO’S BACK — “George Santos has a possible challenger, as ex-Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi considers a run for his old seat,” by CNBC’s Brian Schwartz

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Calif Rep Katie Porter’s ex-husband stands by domestic abuse allegations against her, contradicting campaign,” by Fox News’ Houston Keene: “The ex-husband of California Democrat Senate candidate Rep. KATIE PORTER said he does ‘not recant’ his domestic abuse allegations against the congresswoman after her campaign said that he did.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

MAY THE ROAD RISE UP TO MEET YOU — “Biden to Ireland’s parliament: ‘I only wish I could stay longer,’” by Adam Cancryn and Shawn Pogatchnik in Dublin

POST-PANDEMIC — “White House asks agencies to step up workers’ return to offices,” by Reuters’ David Shepardson

 

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CONGRESS

BATTING DOWN RETIREMENT RUMORS — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL: “I am looking forward to returning to the Senate on Monday. We’ve got important business to tackle and big fights to win for Kentuckians and the American people.”

NOT SO FAST — “Republicans want to make it difficult for Senate to replace Feinstein on key panel,” by NBC’s Ryan Nobles, Sahil Kapur, Julie Tsirkin and Frank Thorp V

LaHOOD MYSTERY EXPLANATION — “F.B.I. Feared Lawmaker Was Target of Foreign Intelligence Operation,” by NYT’s Charlie Savage

MEDIAWATCH

FOX IN THE DOGHOUSE — “Jury selection underway in Dominion’s $1.6 billion defamation case against Fox News,” by ABC’s Olivia Rubin: “In a change of schedule, the judge said jury selection will now resume on Monday morning, instead of Friday — after which the jury will be sworn in on Monday and the case will go straight into opening statements.”

“Ex-producer escalates lawsuit, claiming Fox News lawyers deleted messages from her phone,” by CNN’s Marshall Cohen

TV TONIGHT — PBS’ “Washington Week,” guest-moderated by Amna Nawaz: Carl Hulse, Leigh Ann Caldwell, Franco Ordoñez, Sarah McCammon and Vivian Salama.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

MSNBC “Inside with Jen Psaki”: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) … Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) … Jordan Klepper.

ABC “This Week”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) … Maryland Gov. Wes Moore. Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Jane Coaston and Rachael Bade.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). Panel: Leigh Ann Caldwell, Stephen Hayes, Hallie Jackson and Jeh Johnson.

CNN “State of the Union”: Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp … Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). Panel: Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), Mia Love, Ashley Allison and David Urban.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) … Asa Hutchinson … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Christine Lagarde.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) … retired Gen. Jack Keane … Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.). Panel: Kayleigh McEnany, John Delaney, Josh Holmes and Mario Parker.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Lady Gaga, Jon Batiste, Shonda Rhimes, George Clooney, Jennifer Garner, Troy Kotsur, Kerry Washington and Steve Israel are joining the President’s Committee on the Arts and the Humanities.

OUT AND ABOUT — POLITICO EIC Matt Kaminski and EU Ambassador Stavros Lambrinidis held a cocktail reception last night at the ambassador’s residence, timed to this week’s IMF and World Bank meetings. SPOTTED: Harald Waiglein, Robert Holzmann, Jiri Georgiev, Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer, Belgian Ambassador Jean-Arthur Régibeau, Estonian Ambassador Kristjan Prikk, Madis Müller, Aurélie Bonal, German Ambassador Emily Haber, Theodoros Bizakis, Theodore Pelagidis, Pal Peter Schmitt, Tibor Tóth, Orla Keane, Sharon Donnery, Vasileios Madouros, Gabriel Makhlouf, Alessandro Gonzales, Arvils Ašeradens, Mārtiņš Kazāks, Arturas Vazbys, Edward Scicluna, Dutch Ambassador André Haspels, Clara Raposo, Peter Kažimír, Marcel Klimek, Nikolina Prah, Boštjan Vasle, Spanish Ambassador Santiago Cabanas, Carlo Monticelli, Teresa Czerwinska, Verena Ross, Paschal Donohoe, Valdis Dombrovskis, Mairead McGuinness, Neera Tanden, Andy Baukol, Christopher Gundermann, Greg Baer, Raghu Malhotra, and Doug Rediker and Heidi Crebo-Rediker.

— SPOTTED at Bloomberg Television and Radio’s cocktail reception in Bloomberg’s D.C. bureau last night: Lisa Abramowicz, Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro, Annmarie Hordern, Joe Mathieu, Peggy Collins, Mike Pyle, David Livingston, Sigrid Kaag, Mohamed El-Erian, Doug Rediker and Heidi Crebo-Rediker.

The Mastercard Center for Inclusive Growth and the Aspen Institute hosted the Global Inclusive Growth Summit at Studio Theatre yesterday, which included World Bank president nominee Ajay Banga. SPOTTED among the speakers: D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser, USAID Administrator Samantha Power, Neera Tanden, Janis Bowdler, Ilan Goldfajn, Trevor Noah, Melinda French Gates, Dan Porterfield, Michael Miebach, Brad Smith, Michael Froman and Queen Máxima of the Netherlands.

BOOK CLUB — Brian Stelter is working on a new book, “Network of Lies: The Epic Saga of Fox News, Donald Trump, and the Battle for American Democracy,” per Variety. It’ll be published by One Signal in November, following up on his previous book, “Hoax.” $30 pre-order

TRANSITIONS — Jeff Sanchez is now chief of staff for federal at PhRMA. He previously was a senior adviser for Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.). … Philip Shulman is joining American Bridge as state level comms director. He most recently was a senior comms adviser to Mandela Barnes’ Wisconsin Senate campaign. …

… Rishi Sahgal is now a professional staff member on the Senate Appropriations Committee. He most recently was with Chair Patty Murray’s (D-Wash.) personal office. … Sanjiv Rao is now managing director of media and movements at Democracy Fund. He previously was a senior equity fellow at OMB.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Baillee Brown, legislative director for Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), and Ian Mariani, comms director for Rep. Salud Carbajal (D-Calif.), got married Saturday at the Saguaro Lake Ranch in Mesa, Ariz. The couple first met at Occidental College, and have been dating since 2018.  PicAnother picSPOTTED: Rep. Scott Peters, Michael Wong, Natasha Dabrowski and Josh Fendrick, Andy Eichar and Gloria Nlewedim.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) … Francis Collins … NBC’s Garrett HaakeJoe Rospars of Blue State Digital … Boeing’s Betsy StewartSasha Issenberg … WaPo’s Matt ZapotoskyMike Duncan … POLITICO’s Amanda MarshAmy Brundage of SKDK … USTR’s Adam HodgeEllie Hockenbury … CNN’s Adam LevineKeith Appell Steve GlickmanAshok PintoRoberta Jacobson … Lumen’s Brad Schweer Stephen Groves … NAM’s Erin Streeter (5-0) … David Medina … Signal Group’s Blake AndroffLina Francis … NYT’s Eileen SullivanJeff SchogolNeil Sroka Shari Redstone Kellen Moran Bobby Shringi of Del. Jim Moylan’s (R-Guam) office … Nick Merrill Ashley Gold

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