Good morning. From rising tensions between China and Taiwan to a second year of Russia's invasion...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.
| | What's Now Indispensable For Modern Traders | | | | | I read a headline today about how the man credited with predicting 2007's credit crash and subsequent great financial crisis said, "The worst is still ahead of us." On the surface, yes, a credit crunch could certainly tip the U.S. into recession...
The Wall Street Journal even reported in March that 186 banks are in a similar condition to Silicon Valley Bank! Long story short, it's time to buckle up and prepare for some serious volatility in the markets.
Or use artificial intelligence to predict market trends 1 - 3 days in advance.
Learn How This A.I. 'Brain" Works FREE | | | | | | DOW 33,530.83 | -1.02% | | | | S&P 4,071.63 | -1.58% | | | | NASDAQ 11,799.16 | -1.98% | | | | *As of market close | | • | Stocks slid on Tuesday, ahead of the first big tech earnings reports after the bell. | | • | Oil dropped 2.2 percent, closing at $77.05 per barrel. | | • | Gold rallied 0.4 percent, ending at $2,009 per ounce. | | • | Cryptocurrencies traded higher, with Bitcoin hitting $27,904 at the stock market close. | | | | | | | | | | Inflation and a Slowing Economy Make This Defensive Stock a Winner | | | | A great company can overcome any economic challenge. To be a great company, it's necessary to have pricing power. That means avoiding having to cut prices during a slow period. And it means when inflation is running hot, prices can be raised over and above. Such companies are few and far between. But harnessing the power of a brand during a slow or sideways market can help lead to great returns over time, both from capital gains, and from growing dividend income. » FULL STORY | | | | | | Insider Trading Report: Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) | | | | Gerald Libin, a major holder of Riley Exploration Permian (REPX), recently added 3,000 shares. The buy increased his stake by less than 1 percent, and came to a total cost of $131,370. This marks the first insider buy since last October, when Libin was also a buyer of just over $273,000 in shares. Over the past few months, several company insiders have sold, including the company President and the company CEO. » FULL STORY | | | | | | Unusual Options Activity: Vale (VALE) | | | | Brazilian iron ore producer Vale (VALE) is down 12 percent over the past year and 25 percent off its peak. One trader is betting that prices will fall further in the months ahead. That's based on the July $14 puts. With 86 days until expiration, 6,721 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 211, for a 32-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.88 to make the bearish bet.
» FULL STORY | | | | | | • | Commercial Real Estate Faces Secular Decline
A slowing economy is leading to a cyclical downturn for real estate. However, commercial real estate is facing a secular trend, as the rise of e-commerce and remote work are reducing the demand for physical retailer space and office space. However, it does suggest a rise in demand for warehousing and logistics space. | | | | • | First Republic Reports 41 Percent Drop in Deposits
San Francisco-based First Republic Bank (FRC), a regional bank that appeared to be near collapse during last month's banking system meltdown, has reported that its deposits have dropped 41 percent. The drop is $72 billion, and a sign that customers are avoiding smaller banks right now amid a flight to safety. | | | | • | Credit Suisse Saw $75 Billion Outflow Before Collapse
Credit Suisse saw customers pull out over $75 billion in deposits in the first quarter of the year, with the bank run accelerating right before the bank's acquisition by UBS (UBS). The bank reports that outflows have still continued, and net assets under management have dropped over 5 percent. | | | | • | Palihapitiya Sees Crypto As Dead
Investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who once predicted that Bitcoin would replace gold and trade as high as $200,000, now says that "crypto is dead in America." That view is based on increased regulatory scrutiny in the crypto industry, with the SEC ramping up its enforcement following the fall of FTX and other leveraged cryptocurrency brokerages. | | | | • | Snapchat Users Dislike "My AI" Feature
A new AI feature for Snapchat (SNAP) users is off to a poor start. Global users are rating the app as 1-star following the launch of the "My AI" feature. The chatbot, powered by OpenAI's GPT technology, is pinned to the top of the app's chat tab. Reviews are about 75 percent negative, far in excess of a historic negative review rate of 35 percent. | | | | | | TOP | | BRO | 3.636% | | | CNC | 2.572% | | | FISV | 2.502% | | | PEP | 2.205% | | | PHM | 2.145% | | | BOTTOM | | FRC | 46.125% | | | MSCI | 12.268% | | | UPS | 9.742% | | | NTRS | 9.358% | | | GEHC | 8.543% | | | | | | | | | We're kind of entering this point where we're starting to see what type of damage the hike cycle has already dealt, but we also don't have the inflation cycle in the bag. ... It's very optimistic, the pricing that we're seeing right now, especially with how low volatility is. | | - Tim Urbanowicz, head of research and investment strategy at Innovator ETFs, on how the market may trend higher given how forgiving earnings season has been so far. | | |
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