Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day’s biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. President Joe Biden got to enjoy decent inflation news for about six hours before Federal Reserve economists rained on his parade. With big bank CEOs like JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon and Citi’s Jane Fraser scheduled to give their takes on the economy in Friday morning earnings calls, the forecast calls for more tortured weather metaphors. Banks “are starting to see signs of deterioration,” International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers Executive Director Som-lok Leung told MM on Wednesday. The IACPM’s latest member survey — which captures the perspective of major lenders like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and the Dutch pension PGGM, among others — reflected a growing belief that a recession will arrive in the coming months as banks offer fewer loans and credit quality begins to crumble, according to an advance copy shared with MM. “Inflation, interest rates, geopolitical instability — those have been on the table for the last several years,” Leong said. More banks are preserving their capital in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank failure and “one of the things that will impact most is their ability to lend,” he added. That’s one reason why Fed economists now expect a recession before the end of the year, according to the minutes of the central bank’s March 21-22 meeting. While those projections don’t reflect the views of Federal Open Market Committee members, Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed leaders aren’t sounding optimistic. Monetary policymakers now expect the economy to grow at “a rate so slow that it could easily dip negative,” Victoria Guida reports. They also expect unemployment to climb by a full percentage point, which would be a sharp reversal for a rock-solid labor market that’s been a point of pride for the White House. What’s more, even with a recession more likely, Wednesday’s consumer price index report did not do much to convince the Fed to pause plans for another rate hike. Inflation is still accelerating in core services sectors of the economy. Wall Street has the odds of the Fed raising the target rate by another quarter-point in May at two-to-one. That won’t make credit conditions any easier. “The credit spigot is closing,” Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi told MM. “That will have a macroeconomic consequence.” IT’S THURSDAY — Have you survived the spring meetings? Send tips, suggestions and gossip to Sam at ssutton@politico.com and Zach at zwarmbrodt@politico.com.
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