| | | | |  | | By Shia Kapos | | | Happy Election Day, Illinois. Between Trump and the mayor’s race, this is going to be a whopper of a news day. With help from Marissa Martinez
|  | TOP TALKER | | All eyes are on Chicago today as Brandon Johnson and Paul Vallas try to win over voters to succeed Mayor Lori Lightfoot in a nonpartisan race pitting two Democrats who agree on party values and issues like abortion and gay support, but who have a fundamentally different approach to public safety. How they’d approach crime: Vallas wants to increase the Chicago Police Department by 2,000, while Johnson wants to improve social service programs to address what he sees as the root causes of crime. What they agree on: They both support keeping Lightfoot’s Invest South/West program for economic development on the Sound and West sides. Their union labels: Johnson is backed by the liberal Chicago Teachers Union, and Vallas is supported by the conservative Fraternal Order of Police. Vallas has accepted donations from conservative donors, while Johnson’s campaign is backed almost solely by teachers’ unions and organizations. Their Achilles’ heels. Johnson has been quoted saying he wants to defund the police, though he has since walked back his comments. And Vallas has been critical in the past of high-profile Democrats in his own party. The problem for moderates: “Voters are making a choice between the conservative status quo like the Richard Daley era, or a progressive in Johnson,” political consultant and former alderman Dick Simpson said. It’s causing some existential angst among voters who might have backed Lightfoot or Congressman Jesus “Chuy” Garcia in the first round of the election. It’s historic: Simpson says the race is different than most any other mayoral race Chicago has ever seen. “Going back to 1871, there’s been a split between machine candidates and reform candidates. What’s different this time is that the choice is between conservative status quo and progressive.” Black and white voters: Simpson and other political watchers say the African-American vote will be essential for both candidates. Johnson must get 80 percent of the Black vote to win, and Vallas needs above 20 percent for him to make it over the finish line. The numbers are pretty much reversed for white voters. Latino vote is more complicated: Garcia has backed Johnson, but many Latino voters have aligned with Vallas over his focus on fighting crime. Wild cards: Republicans who don’t answer pollsters may have been what propelled Vallas to win the most votes in the first round of the race in February. Will it happen again? Or will CTU’s army of volunteers push Johnson over the finish line? We may not know tonight. Polls close at 7 p.m. Polling is showing the race within the margin of error, which means there may not be a clear winner until mail-in ballots are counted. Johnson, for example, went up a few points after the night of the primary thanks to mail-in-ballots, which were tallied later. RELATED — Walmart heirs pour money into pro-charter school groups backing Vallas, by Crain's Justin Laurence and Brandon Dupre. — JUICE: Since Friday, Vallas’ campaign has taken in $343,000, including several five-figure donations across industries. Johnson received $164,464 on Friday, with United Working Families PAC and American Federation of Teachers COPE each donating more than $50,000.
| | THE BUZZ | | When the message is crime: Campaign consultant Eric Adelstein talked to POLITICO’s Madison Fernandez about the role crime messaging has played in the mayor’s race. “Appealing to people's worst instincts is not a great way to run campaigns,” said Adelstein, a partner at AL Media and Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s media consultant. “People ultimately do look for solutions. When you have a national crime wave, you don't have to remind people of the problem.” Two takes: Adelstein said crime messaging in the first round of the mayor’s race was different from the runoff. “We all know in campaigns it's easier to scare people and create fear than it is to inspire them and create hope. When you have a national crime wave, and it's on the news every night, it's easy to sort of draft behind that and play into that fear to get a certain percentage of voters. I think [Paul] Vallas obviously did that quite well in the first round,” Adelstein said. “It becomes more nuanced in the second round, and you see that in the paid communication. Voters aren't stupid. They get what's going on, and I think, to win 50-plus-one in a city like Chicago … you can't just be tough on crime, because that's not realistic and people know that there's a limit to what one mayor can do. So, there has to be that balance between investing in communities, as well as investing in law enforcement.” The interview first appeared in POLITICO’s Morning Score newsletter. If you are one of the Waltons, Playbook would like to hear your thoughts on the mayor’s race. Email skapos@politico.com.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 4/5 FOR THE 2023 RECAST POWER LIST: America’s demographics and power dynamics are changing — and POLITICO is recasting how it covers the intersection of race, identity, politics and policy. Join us for a conversation on the themes of the 2023 Recast Power List that will examine America’s decision-making tables, who gets to sit at them, and the challenges that still need to be addressed. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | WHERE'S JB | | At Northern Illinois University at 10:30 a.m. to highlight higher education investments. — At Cherry Valley Elementary School in Rockford at 12:15 p.m. to announce Perryville Road Bridge investments through Rebuild Illinois.
| | WHERE'S LORI | | No official public events.
| | Where's Toni | | No official public events. Have a news tip, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job or any other nugget for Playbook? I’d like to hear from you: skapos@politico.com
| | | | A message from Uber:   | | | | | THE STATEWIDES | | — PLASTIC TIME CAPSULE: Illinois lawmakers are considering a bill to ease rules around chemical recycling. The fact they’re leaning toward rejecting it shows how far the debate has moved, reports Jordan Wolman in POLITICO’s The Long Game. “The bill, which would allow high-temperature plastic-melting facilities to be sited in the Chicago suburbs, would extend an expiring 2019 law that does the same thing. But while the original law passed the state Legislature nearly unanimously, this year’s bill is splitting the state’s Democratic caucus. It passed a committee earlier this month but failed to receive a vote off the House floor before a late March deadline. It’s a sign of how polarized the debate around the technology has become.” — Illinois Supreme Court Justice Elizabeth Rochford talks about women in the law, via a Q&A with the court’s Commission on Professionalism.
| | CORRUPTION CHRONICLES | | — Ex-ComEd lobbyist suspected new CEO Dominguez would be ‘wired’: “Prosecutors present recordings showing Madigan confidant Michael McClain didn’t trust incoming utility boss Joseph Dominguez, a former federal prosecutor,” by Sun-Times’ Jon Seidel and Tina Sfondeles.
| | CHICAGO | | — FOP boss files complaint about city housing migrants at police stations: “At least eight migrants, including three children, had been staying at the Central District since they got to Chicago. The Salvation Army moved most of them to a shelter Monday afternoon,” by Sun-Times’ Emmanuel Camarillo, Frank Main and Tom Schuba. — CPD has ‘sufficient resources’ ready for potential protests against Trump arraignment, by Sun-Times’ Kade Heather — Neighbors say Obama center is raising rents, forcing them out: “Whether the city acts on that will depend on the next mayor,” by The Washington Post’s Marissa J. Lang. — Ald. Leslie Hairston hosts her last ward meeting before leaving City Council: “I will still be around the neighborhood,” she says, via Block Club’s Maxwell Evans. — School of thought: The Illinois Senate is holding citywide public hearings on the creation of new Chicago elected school board districts. Here’s how to participate or tune in. — Chicago Gospel Music Festival 2023 lineup announced; Tye Tribbett to headline, by Sun-Times’ Miriam Di Nunzio
| | | | GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | Reader Digest | | We asked what’s the last thing you bought that you really didn’t need. Ron Abrams: “Air Jordan 3’s ‘White Cement’ gym shoes.” Randy Bukas: “I bought some ‘O’ gauge model railroad tracks for my Lionel train set. It’s for my retirement hobby.” Dan Johnson: “The Sunday Tribune print subscription. Going old school.” Bryce Harris: “A(nother) Stetson from Alcala's on Chicago Avenue.” Andre Jordan: “A newer Apple Watch. The old one didn't have the newest features.” Fred Lebed: “A vanity license plate: Taragon (spelled incorrectly, I know). I am a big gardener.” Ed Mazur: “Renewal of my Chicago Bears tickets for the 57th year.” Anel Ruez: “Favors for my 6-year-old’s birthday party and due to my fear of making sure everyone had enough, a lot of it (mostly plastic turtles and turtle stickers) ended up back in my house.” Andy Shaw: “A cure-all golf club that isn’t curing my terminally ill swing.” Mason Sloan: “Three different masquerade masks for a masquerade-themed gala, including a Batman mask.” Patricia Ann Watson: “More shoes, handbags and another bike.” What’s a button you’d add to your keyboard? Email skapos@politico.com
| | THE NATIONAL TAKE | | — He already rocked MAGA world — twice. Now he’s Trump’s judge, by POLITICO’s Julia Marsh — DeSantis signs Florida gun bill as activists demand more, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout — ‘We’ve seen this story before’: Dems grow anxious of a Trump ’16 redux, by POLITICO’s Jonathan Lemire and Holly Otterbein
| | TRANSITIONS | | — Rob Jeffreys, the former Illinois prison chief, named to head Nebraska Department of Corrections: “Jeffreys, who departed his job leading the Illinois Department of Corrections three days ago, was introduced Monday as the new chief of the Nebraska prison system,” via Nebraska Examiner. — Jake Schtevie and Brad Laken have joined Willkie’s Chicago office in the firm’s global finance practice. They represent banks, direct lenders and other debt investors. Both came from White & Case.
| | SPOTTED | | — Rahul Gupta, director of the White House Office of National Drug Control Policy, visited Haymarket Center in Chicago’s West Loop on Monday. He toured the center’s program for treating people with substance-use disorders and behavioral health conditions. Haymarket Center is known for using evidence-based treatment as well as primary care, recovery homes and workforce development. Gupta met with Haymarket President & CEO Dan Lustig, as well as patients and staff.
| | WEDDING BELLS | | — Bradley Akubuiro, a partner at Bully Pulpit Interactive, and Allison England, head of U.S. and Canada comms for GE HealthCare, got married Saturday at The Society Room of Hartford, a renovated bank building in Connecticut, where England is from. The officiant was Charles Whitaker, dean of the Medill School of Journalism at Northwestern, where Akubuiro attended and teaches. The couple met in 2014 while working at Pratt & Whitney. Pic … Another pic SPOTTED: Tim and Anita McBride, Marcus Jadotte, Chris McDavid, Xochitl Hinojosa and Eloy Martinez, Victor Scott, Tizz Weber, Holly Gilthorpe, Yolanda Murphy, Paulette Aniskoff, Scott Mulhauser, Andrew Bleeker, Mike Schneider and Danny Franklin.
| | IN MEMORIAM | | — Aleksandra Pogorzelski, who worked in the hospitality industry but was also mom to MWRD Commissioner Dan Pogorzelski and his siblings, has died. Details here
| | TRIVIA | | MONDAY’s ANSWER: Congrats to Jim Bray for correctly answering that former Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie chaired the Blagojevich Impeachment Committee. TODAY’s QUESTION: Which Illinois governor was arrested on criminal charges at the governor’s mansion and taken to Sangamon County Courthouse where he posted bond? Email skapos@politico.com
| | HAPPY BIRTHDAY | | Former Lake County Sheriff Mark Curran, Illinois Policy Institute President Matt Paprocki and PR pro Molly Mitchell. -30- | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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