Wednesday, March 29, 2023

What Dems really think of the GOP’s debt demands

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POLITICO Playbook

By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

Presented by TikTok

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) speaks with reporters.

After weeks talking with his rank-and-file about what concessions they’d need from Democrats to raise the debt ceiling, Speaker Kevin McCarthy floated five proposals that could maybe, just maybe, elicit an agreement. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

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DRIVING THE DAY

WANTED — The FBI and U.S. Marshals are each offering a $10,000 reward for information leading to the capture of ROY McGRATH, the ex-chief of staff to former Maryland Gov. LARRY HOGAN who is on the run from federal fraud and embezzlement charges. McGrath, who was born in Greece and has used the alias Roy Baisliadou, is “considered an international flight risk,” the FBI says. See the poster

KNOWING GLENN YOUNGKIN — John Harris files his new Altitude column from Richmond, Va.: “Why a Glenn Youngkin Presidential Candidacy Makes Sense for the Republican Party”

The bull case … “When politicians can play both ends of the keyboard — sounding notes of grievance and aspiration with equal fluency — they often go far,” John writes, adding: “Republicans are divided over the question of division. Do people want an end to the politics of conflict and bombast represented by Trump and his one-time protégé, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS? Or is exploiting the alleged cultural and ideological excesses of the Democratic left the path to defeating President JOE BIDEN? Youngkin’s potential appeal is that it isn’t necessary to decide — just say yes to both questions.”

HANDICAPPING THE GOP DEBT-LIMIT PROPOSALS — After weeks talking with his rank-and-file about what concessions they’d need from Democrats to raise the debt ceiling, Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY floated five proposals that could maybe, just maybe, elicit an agreement. We spent yesterday working the phones to find out what Hill Democrats — both lawmakers and senior aides — privately thought about these ideas.

First, a caveat: Don’t expect top Democrats to applaud any of these ideas on record right now. The party line, we’re told, remains and will continue to be to resist giving Republicans any concessions — particularly since they raised the debt ceiling three times under DONALD TRUMP without conditions.

Democrats and the White House will also continue to demand McCarthy lay out and pass a budget to prove that he’s even worth negotiating with, we’re told. There’s a concern that even if Democrats cut a deal with McCarthy, he won’t be able to deliver votes given his limited hold on the GOP conference.

McCarthy’s letter, meanwhile, did not impress Democrats. One senior aide called it nothing more than a “pathetic” attempt to distract from his challenge cobbling together a GOP budget, and almost everyone else said its lack of specifics made it impossible to negotiate over.

But behind the squawking, we found that there were in fact some ideas that piqued their interests. We granted anonymity to a half-dozen Democrats to candidly assess the emerging Republican proposals and whether any of them might grow legs …

1. Enacting “measures to lower energy costs”

Forecast: Intriguing

McCarthy wasn’t specific, but most Democrats read this as an invitation to pass energy permitting reform. If that’s the case, they’re interested. While few Democrats are expected to back Republicans’ massive energy package this week, their opposition to the bill stems from other provisions in the legislation. But a narrowed version, along the lines of what Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) tried to jam through the Senate last year, could work: “Energy permitting — not just as it relates to drilling but as it relates to the grid and electrical distribution — is absolutely fertile common ground,” said one Democratic lawmaker.

2. “Reclaiming unspent Covid funds”

Forecast: Definitely maybe

You might recall an ugly intraparty squabble Democrats had last year over a new round of Covid relief money: To win GOP support, leaders proposed clawing back billions of dollars in unused pandemic aid from states that hadn’t yet used the money. Many House Dems representing those states revolted — forcing NANCY PELOSI to drop the proposal. That would seem to make this McCarthy proposal seem like a nonstarter, but multiple Democrats told us there could be some wiggle room — particularly if the funding has expired. One senior aide noted that prior budget deals frequently involved clearing out “weird accounts” with orphaned money: “We would tap those to say, ‘Oh … we’re taking this money back.’ It was all gimmicky but it made Republicans have something tangible that they could say they got."

3. Securing the border “from the flow of deadly fentanyl”

Forecast: Tough, but not out of the realm of the possibility

Immigration and border issues have long been something of a third rail for Congress, with bipartisan efforts on the subject repeatedly fizzling over the past decade. However, one centrist Democratic lawmaker we spoke to said some sort of border agreement was certainly possible — not a Trumpian wall, of course, but perhaps funding for beefed-up enforcement. The challenge, however, as another senior Democratic aide noted, is that many lawmakers see any border conversation as part of a larger immigration deal, and that’s not happening right now: “It’s really hard to decouple that from some sort of farm worker or Dreamer deal,” the staffer said. “It would be very difficult to do border security absent some of those reforms that protect longstanding immigrants.”

4. “Reducing excessive non-defense” spending

Forecast: Plain old tough

As domestic spending cuts have emerged as the central GOP demand, Democrats have been pushing back for weeks already. After Republicans floated bringing nondefense discretionary spending back to fiscal 2022 levels, Rep. ROSA DeLAURO (D-Conn.), the top Democratic appropriator, released letters from federal agencies showing that would mean drastic and “detrimental” cuts to key federal programs — an issue they believe is likely to give even some Republicans heartburn. Even one fiscally moderate Democratic member who would like to see the deficit reduced told Playbook that such cuts wouldn't work unless they were accompanied by tax increases — a nonstarter for the GOP: “Both sides would have to agree in principle that it’s a combination, it’s not just either/or.”

5. “Strengthening work requirements” for entitlement programs

Forecast: Forget it

McCarthy’s letter did not specify what programs he was talking about — Republicans have floated work requirements for Medicaid, food assistance and more — but any new provisions would be difficult, if not impossible, for Democrats to swallow. It’s easily the idea they hate most.

But they’re also not worried about a GOP push on the issue since Republicans had trouble advancing the proposal when they had full control of government: A 2018 House push to tighten eligibility for food stamps led to a delay in the farm bill until House Republicans dropped the demand. “If you couldn’t do work requirements when Trump was president and there was a Republican House and Senate, I don’t know why you think you will be able to do that now,” one senior Democratic aide said.

Related reads: “A Long-Term Deal to Raise the US Debt Ceiling Is Looking Unlikely,” by Bloomberg’s Laura Litvan … “Biden and McCarthy barely speak, dimming prospects for a debt ceiling deal,” by NBC’s Scott Wong and Peter Nicholas … “Poll: Cut federal spending — but not big-ticket programs,” by AP’s Josh Boak and Hannah Fingerhut

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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WATCH THIS SPACE — “Israeli PM, Biden exchange frosty words over legal overhaul,” by AP’s Ilan Ben Zion: “Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU on Wednesday rebuffed President Joe Biden’s suggestion that the premier ‘walks away’ from a contentious plan to overhaul the legal system, saying the country makes its own decisions. The exchange was a rare bout of public disagreement between the two close allies and signals building friction between Israel and the U.S. over Netanyahu’s judicial changes, which he postponed after massive protests."

What Biden said … “Hopefully the prime minister will act in a way that he can try to work out some genuine compromise. But that remains to be seen.”

What Bibi said … Israel ““makes its decisions by the will of its people and not based on pressures from abroad, including from the best of friends.”

Related reads: “Netanyahu, the skunk at Biden’s democracy party,” by Jonathan Lemire and Halley Toosi: “Underlying the fear inside the White House was a sense that the Netanyahu-led far-right coalition now governing the once-stable democracy in the Middle East has authoritarian leanings. Those concerns have deepened as Washington tries to hold together a democratic alliance against dictatorships in places including Russia, China and Iran, an archrival of Israel.”

“Biden says Israel ‘cannot continue down this road,’ says he won’t invite Netanyahu soon,” by Forward’s Ron Kampeas and Jacob Kornbluh: “A senior administration official who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter, accused Netanyahu and RON DERMER, the minister of strategic affairs who serves as the point person to the White House of making a ‘gross miscalculation’ when it came to understanding the U.S. reaction to the judicial overhaul.”

 

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BIDEN’S WEDNESDAY:

8:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.

11:20 a.m.: Biden will host the Summit for Democracy Virtual Plenary on Democracy Delivering on Global Challenges.

2:45 p.m.: Biden will hold a bilateral meeting with Argentine President ALBERTO FERNÁNDEZ.

5 p.m.: Biden will host a reception celebrating Greek Independence Day.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ WEDNESDAY:

7:25 a.m.: The VP will convene a roundtable of women entrepreneurs to discuss economic empowerment, inclusion and leadership.

9:05 a.m.: Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will depart Accra, Ghana, en route to Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

THE HOUSE will meet at 10 a.m. for morning hour and noon to consider H.R.1, the “Lower Energy Costs Act,” with first and last votes expected at 5:30 p.m. Testifying before Appropriations subcommittees today: AG MERRICK GARLAND at 9:30 a.m., Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO at 10 a.m., Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS at 10 a.m., VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH at 10 a.m., Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN at 10 a.m. and FDA Commissioner ROBERT CALIFF at 1 p.m. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN will testify before the full Appropriations Committee at 10 a.m. HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA will testify before the Energy and Commerce Committee at 10 a.m. The Financial Services Committee will hold a hearing on the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank at 10 a.m.

THE SENATE will meet at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of S.316, to repeal the authorizations for use of military force against Iraq, with a vote at 11:30 a.m., followed by a cloture vote on the motion to proceed to the Fire Grants and Safety Act. Testifying before Appropriations subcommittees today: Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND at 9:30 a.m., Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK at 10 a.m. and Mayorkas at 1:30 p.m. The HELP committee will hold a hearing on Starbucks’ labor disputes at 10 a.m.

 

GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from April 30-May 3. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

A girl lights candle during a vigil for the victims of a fire at an immigration detention center that killed dozens in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Tuesday, March 28, 2023. According to Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, migrants fearing deportation set mattresses ablaze at the center, starting the fire.

A girl lights candle during a vigil for the victims of a fire at an immigration detention center that killed dozens in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Tuesday, March 28, 2023. | Christian Chavez/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

MORE ON YOUNGKIN — “‘He’s done a great job’: Youngkin praises would-be rivals,” by Daniel Lippman and John Harris: “In an age of snarling politics, Youngkin is trying to decide if the 2024 field has room for a different style.”

  • On DeSantis: “If you look at Florida, he’s done a great job.” Referencing his own efforts to bring economic development to Virginia, in which employers are sometimes making a choice between the two states, “He’s a tough competitor.”
  • On Trump: “Well, I think what you say and how you say it,” Youngkin offered delicately. “I think there is a chance to disagree with people without being disagreeable. … We just have different styles.”

Related reads: “Youngkin signs hundreds of bills, vetoes 3 from Democrats,” by AP’s Sarah Rankin in Richmond, Va. … “‘Back to 1902’: Virginia Governor Revives Lifetime Ban on Voting,” by Bolts’ Alex Burness

STAFFER STOCK-UP — “Trump makes a big move in the Granite State,” by Lisa Kashinsky in Manchester, N.H.: “TREVOR NAGLIERI will serve as Trump’s New Hampshire state director, according to two GOP operatives familiar with the move.” He’s a JEB BUSH, TED CRUZ and Axiom Strategies alum.

MORE POLITICS

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK — “Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race could be the beginning of the end for GOP dominance,” by Zach Montellaro and Megan Messerly: “With the exception of the governorship, Republicans have long had a lock on most levers of power in the state. … But a liberal win in the April 4 election could upend all of that. It would give liberals an effective majority on the high court — and with it, the possibility to redraw state and congressional district lines in ways that dramatically curb Republican power.”

WELCOME TO THE FUTURE — “A Campaign Aide Didn’t Write That Email. A.I. Did,” by NYT’s Shane Goldmacher: “Republican and Democratic engineers alike are racing to develop tools to harness A.I. to make advertising more efficient, to engage in predictive analysis of public behavior, to write more and more personalized copy and to discover new patterns in mountains of voter data.”

JUST POSTED — “Republicans Face Setbacks in Push to Tighten Voting Laws on College Campuses,” by NYT’s Neil Vigdor

THE WHITE HOUSE

ACCRA DISPATCH — Eugene writes in this morning: On her final day in Ghana before heading to Tanzania and Zambia, VP Harris is announcing a combined $1 billion “digital economy fund” for women’s economic empowerment.

The money is a mix of public and private funds from the likes of USAID and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation aimed at helping “accelerate progress to close the gender digital divide by scaling evidence-based, proven solutions that improve women’s livelihoods, economic security, and resilience,” according to a U.S. fact sheet. Harris will meet with five Ghanaian women entrepreneurs today for the rollout.

BIDEN GETS THE KFILE SCRUB — “Joe Biden attacks Republicans for positions he once held about Social Security,” by CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski and Em Steck: “Biden first introduced a proposal in 1975 that would have ceased funding all federal programs – including Social Security and Medicare – unless they were reauthorized by Congress. In fact, Biden’s bill was the first so-called federal sunset bill, something the president later boasted about in his 1978 Senate reelection campaign.”

ON THE PRE-HUSTINGS — “Biden Highlights Economic Investments Ahead of Expected 2024 Announcement,” by NYT’s Katie Rogers in Durham, N.C.

CONGRESS

ONE TO WATCH — “Controversial judge tests New Hampshire senators’ clout,” by Marianne LeVine and Burgess Everett: “New Hampshire’s two Democratic senators are lobbying with uncharacteristic zeal on an issue dividing their caucus — confirming a judicial nominee under scrutiny for his handling of a sexual assault case at a prestigious boarding school.”

AUMF REPEAL ON DECK — The Senate is poised to clear a repeal of the 2002 and 1991 authorizations of force against Iraq, potentially today. But yesterday Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, who is still home recovering from a recent fall, said he opposes the repeal, “arguing that that authority ‘bears directly on the threats we face today in Iraq and Syria from Iran-backed terrorists,’” AP’s Mary Clare Jalonick and Lolita Baldor write.

GRUENBERG GRINDS GEARS — “Hill frustrations simmer over banking chief,” by Victoria Guida: “On Tuesday, at the first congressional hearing on the banking turmoil, where [FDIC Chair MARTIN] GRUENBERG appeared alongside other regulators, GOP lawmakers demanded to know why SVB wasn’t auctioned off more quickly to a private sector bidder, arguing that could have saved further cost, trouble and government involvement.”

HORRIFYING NEWS — “Rand Paul staffer suffered ‘deep knife wound’ to head, required surgery after D.C. attack, uncle says,” by Fox News’ Greg Norman

TRUMP CARDS

GRAND JURY ON PAUSE AGAIN — “New York grand jury won’t hear Trump case again this week,” by CNN’s Jeremy Herb and Lauren del Valle: “The grand jury will not meet Wednesday and will be hearing an unrelated case on Thursday, the sources said. The grand jury typically does not meet on Fridays.”

On the scene: “Trump supporter charged with pulling knife on family with children outside Manhattan courthouse,” by Wesley Parnell

PENCE ORDERED TO TESTIFY — “Mike Pence must testify about conversations he had with Donald Trump leading up to January 6, judge rules,” by CNN’s Katelyn Polantz, Paula Reid, Zachary Cohen, Devan Cole and Tierney Sneed: “The judge said – in a ruling that remains under seal – that [former VP MIKE] PENCE can still decline to answer questions related to his actions on January 6 itself, when he was serving as president of the Senate for the certification of the 2020 presidential election, according to one of the sources. The ruling from chief judge JAMES BOASBERG of the U.S. District Court in Washington, DC, is a major win for special counsel JACK SMITH.”

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

DUTY FREE — “Garland looks to hand off security duty for Supreme Court justices,” by Josh Gerstein: “Attorney General Merrick Garland said Tuesday that he hopes the enhanced security he authorized last year for Supreme Court justices and their families won’t be provided indefinitely by the U.S. Marshals Service. ‘This is a task we’d gladly turn over to the Supreme Court Police,’ Garland said during a Senate Appropriations subcommittee hearing.”

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

INSIDE THE ROOM — “Juror in Oath Keepers trial reveals secrets from the deliberation room,” by Kyle Cheney: “A woman who helped decide the fate of the six defendants sat last week for a 90-minute interview with C-SPAN — her employer of 32 years — just two days after the jury completed its work.”

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — “U.S. Border Policies Have Created a Volatile Logjam in Mexico,” by NYT’s Miriam Jordan and Edgar Sandoval: “The situation exploded on Monday when a protest at a government-run migrant detention center in Ciudad Juárez led to a fire that killed at least 40 people. But scenes of overcrowding and desperation have been unfolding in recent weeks along the length of the border as the Biden administration prepares for yet another surge in migration this spring.”

TALES FROM THE CRYPTO — “Binance Sees $2 Billion in Outflows as Troubles Compound,” by WSJ’s Vicky Ge Huang and Dave Michaels

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

UKRAINE FALLOUT — “State Dept. Proposes Joint Tribunal to Try Russian Leaders,” by NYT’s Glenn Thrush and Charlie Savage … “Russia’s Economy Is Starting to Come Undone,” by WSJ’s Georgi Kantchev and Evan Gershkovich

DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN spoke by phone with Chinese Foreign Minister WANG YI on Friday, Bloomberg’s Peter Martin, Jenny Leonard and Jennifer Jacobs report. “Sullivan’s previously unreported call took place days before Taiwan’s President TSAI ING-WEN is scheduled to stop in the U.S. en route to Central America, a trip that’s likely to further inflame Beijing’s ire.”

Related read: “China threatens retaliation if Tsai and McCarthy meet,” AP

WHO’S NOT COMING TO BIDEN’S SUMMIT — “Pakistan says it will skip U.S. democracy summit amid turmoil,” by AP’s Munir Ahmed

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

THE LATEST IN NASHVILLE — “Covenant School shooter was under care for emotional disorder and hid guns at home, police say,” by CNN’s Eric Levenson, Melissa Alonso and Nouran Salahieh

The cops: “Experts say police response in Nashville was ‘exact opposite’ to Uvalde,” by WaPo’s Robert Klemko

Who they were: “Victims of Covenant School shooting include daughter of pastor, head of school,” by the Nashville Tennessean’s Amber Roberson

The view from the White House: “Biden says he has exhausted executive action on guns, Congress must act,” by WaPo’s Azi Paybarah and Mariana Alfaro

The view from Congress: “The Man Who Leads Senate Prayer Is Fed Up With ‘Thoughts And Prayers,’” by HuffPost’s Igor Bobic

A NEW YORK MINUTE — “Schumer’s highway to the Catskills angers environmentalists,” by Danielle Muoio Dunn: “The growing debate around the New York project reflects a larger national fight over highway spending.”

MEDIAWATCH

TALKER — Jack Schafer writes for his Fourth Estate column: “What Rupert Murdoch and Logan Roy Figured Out”

FOX IN THE DOG HOUSE — “Carlson, Hannity among potential witnesses at Fox News trial,” by AP’s David Bauder and Randall Chase: “TUCKER CARLSON, SEAN HANNITY and BRET BAIER are … among the names submitted this week as potential witnesses by Fox and Dominion Voting Systems, although it doesn’t guarantee that they will appear in court. It still isn’t certain there will be a trial.”

Fox News statement: “Dominion’s needlessly expansive live witness list is yet another attempt to generate headlines and distract from the many shortcomings of its case. Ultimately, this case is about the First Amendment protections of the media’s absolute right to cover the news.”

 

JOIN POLITICO ON 4/5 FOR THE 2023 RECAST POWER LIST: America’s demographics and power dynamics are changing — and POLITICO is recasting how it covers the intersection of race, identity, politics and policy. Join us for a conversation on the themes of the 2023 Recast Power List that will examine America’s decision-making tables, who gets to sit at them, and the challenges that still need to be addressed. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Marjorie Taylor Greene caught another Twitter timeout.

Don Beyer made an overdue upgrade to his official congressional portrait.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sarah Selip is now comms director for Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Texas). She most recently was comms director for Rep. Brandon Williams (R-N.Y.), and is a Jody Hice alum.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Jenny Yang is now deputy assistant to the president for racial justice & equity at the White House Domestic Policy Council. She previously was director of the Office of Federal Contract Compliance Programs at the Department of Labor.

TRANSITIONS — Former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.) is now a John S. McCain senior fellow at the McCain Institute at Arizona State University. … Setti Warren is now director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School. He is the former mayor of Newton, Mass., and is a John Kerry and Bill Clinton alum. The announcementSam Buchan is now senior director at Equinox Global Solutions. He most recently was principal at Anabasis Strategies, and is a Trump NSC and Energy Department alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) … Reps. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) … Peter VelzEmily Cain of EMILY’s List … Lara Logan … AP’s Steve Peoples … WaPo’s Paul Farhi and Janay Kingsberry … CNN’s Melanie Zanona Nathen Huang … POLITICO’s Catherine Morehouse and Julie KennedyNick BuisKate Thomas … Morning Consult’s Matthew BrackenEmily Jashinsky … DSCC’s David Bergstein Carina Armenta of Rep. Julia Brownley’s (D-Calif.) office … Marissa Padilla of Global Strategy Group … Liz JaffHillary Beard of Rep. Terri Sewell’s (D-Ala.) office … Wyn HornbuckleDan Weiner of the Brennan Center for Justice … Robert Gibbs … Rockefeller Foundation’s Eric Pelofsky … ICF Next’s Nancy Murphy Jay Kenworthy of Sen. Todd Young’s (R-Ind.) office … former Sen. Larry Pressler (R-S.D.) … Mehdi Alhassani of Palantir Technologies

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