Wednesday, March 8, 2023

A Big Downgrade 👎

Shield

AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

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Editor's Note: We're looking at the best time in decades to invest in oil and gas royalties.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Permian Basin will drive U.S. oil production to record highs in 2023 and 2024.

And you can get your share of this growth today.

Chief Income Strategist Marc Lichtenfeld's #1 royalty stream in the Permian has no debt and pays out a chunk of its income to investors each and every month.

Best of all, you can own a piece of this royalty stream for just $25.

It's one of the greatest income opportunities in the market. That's why Marc wants to share his presentation with you right away.

Check it out now.

- Rebecca Barshop, Senior Managing Editor

A Big Downgrade for This Popular Energy Dividend Payer

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) is popular with investors because of its big yield. Depending on how you calculate it, the yield is anywhere from 1.4% to 9%.

Let me explain...

Like several oil and gas companies these days, Devon Energy pays a variable dividend. This is done so that in good times it can pay out more cash to shareholders and in not-so-good times it can pay less without it being considered a "cut."

Devon's fixed quarterly dividend is $0.20 per share, up from $0.18 the previous quarter. But the rest of the dividend can be all over the place depending on the company's performance.

Next week, shareholders will receive a $0.69 dividend on top of the $0.20. Last quarter, the variable portion of the dividend was $1.17. It was $1.37 the quarter before that.

The good news is that free cash flow is expected to rise sharply for Devon Energy this year, from $3.4 billion a year ago to $4.5 billion. That should bring down the payout ratio, which was way too high in 2022.

Last year, management paid out 99.1% of its free cash flow in dividends. My comfort level is 75% or lower. A 99% payout ratio means that if free cash flow stumbles even a little, the company has to either reduce the dividend or pay it out of cash (or, God forbid, borrow money to pay it).

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Even before the variable dividend policy went into effect in mid-2022, Devon had slashed its payout to shareholders in 2016, when it lowered the dividend from $0.24 per share to $0.06.

So management is not afraid of the nuclear option. Add in the stated variability of the dividend, and it is clear you cannot count on the dividend remaining the same.

With free cash flow expected to soar this year, things may not be bleak. But with a variable dividend, you can never rely on the same payout year after year or quarter after quarter.

Dividend Safety Rating: F

Dividend Grade Guide
 

If you have a stock whose dividend safety you'd like me to analyze, leave the ticker symbol in the comments section.

Be sure to check whether I've written about your favorite stock recently. Click on the word "Search" in the top right part of the website homepage, type in the company name and hit enter.

Good investing,

Marc

P.S. If you're looking for a much safer investment in the oil and gas industry, look no further. Today I'll show you how to collect monthly income directly from the Permian Basin.

Bloomberg reports that the Permian is "uniquely positioned to become the world's most important growth engine for oil production."

While it's the largest oil basin in the United States, only 37% of its wells have been tapped. So the lion's share of growth is ahead of it.

And you can get your share of this growth today.

For more info on my #1 Oil and Gas Royalty for 2023, click here now.

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