Monday, February 13, 2023

🤢 Why This Strong Market Could Lead the Next Recession

Good morning. The labor market continues to defy other economic data showing a slowdown...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. The labor market continues to defy other economic data showing a slowdown. The danger? Strong job growth – as well as wage growth – is keeping inflationary pressures high. And the Federal Reserve looks to the job market as one of many signs for how their policy changes are working.

With yield curves deeply inverted, it's likely that if the labor market starts to truly flip to rising unemployment, things could change quickly. That's a good reason not to chase the market rally since the start of the year, and why traders should continue to look for downside trades as well as upside ones.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 33,869.27 +0.50%
S&P 4,090.46 +0.22%
NASDAQ 11,718.12 -0.61%
*As of market close
Markets traded mixed on Friday, with tech continuing lower.
Oil rose 2.3 percent, closing at $79.82 per barrel.
Gold traded flat, going for $1,876 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with bitcoin at $21,745 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
For Better Investment Results, Follow Companies Being Pushed to Improve
Markets are cyclical, and often so are companies. A great product or service won't last forever. Once the market has been saturated, new products or features are needed to keep revenues growing at a company.

For tech companies, this constant iteration is fantastic. It's inexpensive to develop new ideas and roll them out. And for many tech services, new features can be added while keeping customers on a monthly payment plan.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: PacWest Bancorp (PACW)
William Hosler, a director at PacWest Bancorp (PACW), recently bought 3,750 shares. The buy increased his stake by 7 percent, and came to a total cost of $99,300.

The director was the last buyer as well, with an 8,000 share pickup for $200,000 last June. The company's CEO has sold shares twice since then, but still owns over 1 million shares of the company in total.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: V.F. Corporation (VFC)
Shares of apparel manufacturing company V.F. Corporation (VFC) are down about 55 percent over the past year. One trader sees further downside in the next three months.

That's based on the May $22.50 puts. With 95 days until expiration, 20,019 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 245, for an 82-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.98 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Russia to Cut Oil Output

Russia will cut its production of oil. The country made the move following sanctions that were put in place against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The move caused oil prices to rise, which to some extent well help offset Russia's reduced oil sales to Europe.
Stock Buybacks Hit Record High in 2022

Despite a declining market last year, corporations spent a record $1.22 trillion buying back their own shares. Based on current trends, the record could be on track to be broken again in 2023, as energy and tech companies are increasingly diverting cash flow to buying back shares.
Hybrid Workers See Strongest Wages

New research shows that hybrid workers – who spend between 1 and 4 days in the office each week—earn more than fully remote employees. Meanwhile employees who have 0 remote workdays per week earn the lowest. On average, hybrid workers earned $80,000 per year, fully-remote employees earned $74,000 per year, and fully in-office employees averaged $55,000.
H1B Workers Hit Hard by Tech Layoffs

An increasing number of H1B employees are under pressure amid a surge in tech layoffs. Under the H1B system, foreign workers in the U.S. who lose their jobs have 60 days to find a new one, or to return to their country of origin.
Kraken Ends Crypto-Staking Services

Cryptocurrency brokerage Kraken is ending its staking services. The move comes after the Securities and Exchange Commission settled with the company for $30 million, and is shutting down its on-chain staking program. Under the settlement agreement, Kraken neither admits nor denies the allegations the SEC has made.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
DXCM  9.931%
MRO  6.200%
VLO 6.115%
APA 6.115%
GPN 5.589%
BOTTOM
NWS  9.784%
NWSA 9.374%
EXPE 8.555%
TSLA 5.031%
NVDA 4.799%

Quote of the Day
We saw such a fast and furious pop in the market to start the year, with expectations kind of racing ahead that soft landing is now kind of the expectation… It's not baked in, necessarily, that a soft landing is in the cards.
- Stephanie Lang, chief investment officer at Homrich Berg, on why the market may be in for a decline in the weeks ahead following the strong performance since the start of the year.

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  • How everyday Americans are currently ruining their retirements (and how they could stop the bleeding).
  • Plus, so much more!
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