‘Plausible’ Xi didn’t know about balloon: China panel chair

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Feb 10, 2023 View in browser   By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye Rep. Mike Gallagher told NatSec Daily the balloon episode fits a decadeslong pattern of Beijing seeking to embarrass foreign leaders during or ahead of important encounters. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt BREAKING: The Pentagon tracked a “high-altitude object” over U.S. airspace over the last 24 hours, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Friday. Flying at 40,000 feet high, it posed a “reasonable threat” to civilian flight. President JOE BIDEN this morning ordered the military to shoot down the object, which was roughly the size of a small car, after a recommendation from military officials. The military used an F-22 aircraft to take down the object and used a "sidewinder missile" to do so, Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said. That device is now downed and landed within U.S. territorial waters. It’s unclear if it is a second Chinese spy balloon, however. Which is quite the intro to our lead interview… The chair of the House China Select Committee said it’s “plausible” Chinese leader XI JINPING didn’t know about the spy balloon sent into American airspace last week, but history works against that narrative. Biden administration officials assessed that was likely the case during briefings with lawmakers Thursday, people familiar with the contents told NatSec Daily. Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.), tapped by Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY to head the select panel, says that may be true. But Gallagher told NatSec Daily the balloon episode fits a decadeslong pattern of Beijing seeking to embarrass foreign leaders during or ahead of important encounters, meaning he can't rule out that Xi did know at least something about it. He cited the confrontation between Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN with their counterparts two years ago in Alaska; the controversy over the stairs then-President BARACK OBAMA should use to walk off Air Force One during a visit to China; and even a 1958 moment when MAO ZEDONG held a swimming-pool meeting with Soviet Premier NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV. Such displays are “in the Chinese Communist Party’s DNA,” Gallagher said, suggesting it’s possible that Beijing sent the balloon over America with similar intentions. After all, Blinken was set to meet with Xi only a week after the device first floated across the U.S. So what to do about China now? Gallagher suggested a litany of initiatives. The U.S. should move Taiwan to the front of the line for nearly $20 billion in foreign military sales, turning into a “porcupine” China wouldn’t dare invade. Lawmakers and the Biden administration should expose the partnership between China and Russia, which the panel chair called “an alliance against the West.” Further, the U.S. should consider starting a joint program with Australia to station ground-based, intermediate-range missiles on the island nation’s northern coast. And all Chinese police outposts operating in the U.S. should be shut down. In the meantime, Gallagher said he soon plans to go to the Indo-Pacific region by himself and then take a bipartisan group with him on a separate trip, though he declined to share any concrete plans with us. He also encouraged McCarthy to go to Taiwan just as his predecessor NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.), did last year. “It’s not a violation of the status quo,” Gallagher said of McCarthy’s long-telegraphed visit. “It’s well within his right to go.” Gallagher said that the bipartisan group of lawmakers will aim to develop a report of the policy ideas that could pass both congressional chambers and land on the president’s desk. The goal is to be an “incubator and accelerator for good China policy.” Immediately, though, the committee could endorse policies for and amendments to the upcoming National Defense Authorization Act, Gallagher suggested. Hours after the interview, a National Security Council official said that Chinese companies with ties to Beijing’s spy-balloon program would be placed on the Commerce Department’s Entity List Friday, effectively blacklisting exports to those firms.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     The Inbox BIDEN TO POLAND: Biden will head to Poland Feb. 20-22, White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE announced Friday. During his visit, Biden will meet with Polish President ANDREJZ DUDA and give a speech before the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. RUSSIA’S OFFENSIVE: Russian drones, rockets and cruise missiles struck several cities in Ukraine on Friday, targeting the country’s already battered infrastructure. The “massive attack” involved 71 cruise missiles and seven Iranian-made drones, Ukrainian officials said. Kyiv shot down 61 of the missiles and five of the drones. Russian troops supported by fighter jets also continued to attack Ukraine’s eastern front, The New York Times’ MARC SANTORA reports. The latest attacks come as experts warn that Moscow’s new major offensive against Ukraine has begun, though no major gains have been made yet. But Russia keeps pushing forward despite a high number of casualties, suggesting the offensives may continue no matter the costs. “The Russians have clearly decided to push forward even though their forces are very heavily damaged,” RAND’s DARA MASSICOT told NatSec Daily. “They're willing to absorb incredible losses to achieve these political goals. So, I don't think that we should underestimate what they're willing to do to get what they want.” KYIV ROCKETS AIDED BY ALLIES: Ukraine relies on the U.S. and its allies to provide or confirm coordinates for most of their rocket strikes using its advanced U.S.-provided rocket systems, The Washington Post reported. In recent months, Ukraine’s forces have struck Russian targets, including headquarters, ammunition depots and barracks using the rocket system. Kyiv almost never launches the rockets without the assistance from the U.S. or other allies, a Ukrainian official said. The disclosure, confirmed by three senior Ukrainian officials and a senior U.S. official, underscores the deeper and operationally active role the Pentagon is playing in the war. Ukrainian officials also argued the process should give the U.S. more confidence in providing longer-range weapons to Kyiv. LET’S GET IT STARTED, AGAIN: The Pentagon wants to resume a pair of top-secret programs in Ukraine that were suspended last year, asking Congress to resume funding. If resumed, the programs would permit American Special Operations troops to employ Ukrainian operatives to observe Moscow’s military movements and counter disinformation, The Washington Post’s WESLEY MORGAN reports, citing current and former U.S. officials. Defense officials are preparing a proposal for the coming months, but a determination is unlikely to come before fall. The program could resume as early as 2024 if approved. But it’s unclear whether U.S. commandos would be allowed back in Ukraine to oversee the programs, or whether the military would try to do that from a neighboring country. CRITICAL MINERALS PACT: The U.S. is looking to form trade deals with Japan and the United Kingdom to secure critical minerals as a way to compete with China, a Biden administration official familiar with the plan told NatSec Daily. The administration is also in touch with the European Union for a similar pact. The goal is to form a club of critical-minerals buyers, so the U.S. isn’t reliant on China, this person said on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations. The official said the administration began briefing key Hill staff today, including relevant committees and members, on a possible bilateral agreement with Japan within this framework. Bloomberg News’ JOSH WINGROVE was first to report the planning. THE FUTURE OF IRAN?: Some of the Iranian diaspora’s most prominent members are drafting a charter for a pluralistic, democratic and freer Iran as they push to create a united front against the Islamic Republic. The effort, announced Friday, aims to capitalize on what some activists hope is a revolutionary moment in Iran, whose clerical leaders recently faced months of widespread internal protests. The diaspora figures came together at an event hosted by the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security. The gathering was arguably historic because the Iranian diaspora, broadly speaking, is riven with divisions, and it is rare to see such figures share a stage. Those gathered included Iran’s former crown prince, REZA PAHLAVI; actress NAZANIN BONIADI; and HAMED ESMAEILION, an Iranian-Canadian whose wife and daughter died in a plane downed by the Iranian government. The activists stressed the importance of remaining unified. They also insisted that even if the protests have been largely smothered, it’s clear that Iranians are determined to eventually overthrow the regime. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we’re featuring Rep. CHRISSY HOULAHAN (D-Penn.), a member of the Armed Services, Foreign Affairs and Intelligence committees whom we interviewed about China on Tuesday. When the former Air Force officer isn’t digging into natsec issues, she’s winding down “with a really good red wine, and anywhere.” Asked if she had a red wine preference, Houlahan said there is definitely one kind she doesn’t like: “Not pinot. That’s about the only thing.” She now best watch out for her colleagues who represent pinot vintners. Cheers! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.   2024 PENCE SUBPOENAED: Former Vice President MIKE PENCE, a potential hopeful for the GOP’s 2024 nomination, was subpoenaed by the special counsel investigating former President DONALD TRUMP’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election result. Per our own KYLE CHENEY, it’s unclear if Pence aims to resist the subpoena, setting up a legal fight over his participation in the probe. But the request by special counsel JACK SMITH is a tightrope for Pence, the target of Trump’s ire during 2020, who wants to run for president by both distancing himself from and sticking to his former boss. MARC SHORT and GREG JACOB, two of Pence’s top aides, have already testified in front of the grand jury. Breaking: The FBI found an additional document in Pence’s home with classified markings on it. Keystrokes BEWARE NORTH KOREAN RANSOMWARE: U.S. federal agencies and South Korea are warning the health care systems to shore up their cyber defenses to protect against North Korea’s ongoing ransomware campaign. A new cybersecurity advisory highlights steps organizations can take to safeguard their data, including for cyber efforts where the DPRK or state-sponsored agencies may request cryptocurrency as part of ransomware payments. The warning comes as the U.S. and South Korea continue to sound the alarm about how North Korea uses crypto-based cyberattacks to fund Pyongyang’s weapons programs. The Complex ICBM TEST: The U.S. tested an intercontinental ballistic missile overnight shortly after China sent a spy balloon into American airspace and North Korea paraded weapons that could overwhelm U.S. defenses. The unarmed Minuteman III launched from Vandenburg Space Force Base in California at 11:01 p.m. Pacific time Thursday “to validate and verify the safety, security, effectiveness, and readiness of the weapon system,” per a news release. You can watch a video of the test here. WINNER, WINNER: The Army awarded AM General a contract worth up to $8.6 billion for Joint Light Tactical Vehicle follow-on production, our own LEE HUDSON reported (for Pros!) late Thursday. The deal is to manufacture up to 20,682 vehicles and up to 9,883 trailers for U.S. and foreign military sales customers. The JLTV is the replacement for the Humvee. The JLTV A2 is the first tactical wheeled vehicle that was designed to use lithium-ion batteries, which will enable anti-idling technology, according to the service. Anti-idling technology allows vehicles to use an alternative power source for the truck’s systems when not driving. JLTV incumbent Oshkosh Defense also bid on the contract. The company tells Lee they are waiting for a debrief from the Army on the decision in the “very near future.”   DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID.     On the Hill SSCI WANTS DOCS BRIEF: The Senate Intelligence Committee is in the “final stages” of securing a briefing on the classified documents that Trump, Biden and Pence kept after leaving office. According to ANDREW DESIDERIO and JOHN BRESNAHAN of Punchbowl News, Sens. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) and MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), who lead the panel, have neared a deal with the Justice Department to secure access to the documents and get an assessment on whether the fact that they were out in the world was a threat to national security. LET’S TRY AGAIN: After being cut from the CHIPS and Science Act last year, the Strategic Competition Act may have a second life. Senators on the Foreign Relations Committee are planning to introduce a new version of the act, which is intended to thwart China’s influence on a range of areas, from military aid to university funding, Semafor’s MORGAN CHALFANT reports. This act, however, would “expand” on the original legislation to tackle more areas, Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) said. “There are many, many different dimensions to the China challenge,” Menendez told Semafor. “While the Strategic Competition Act went a long way to identifying and dealing with many of them, it wasn’t totally exhaustive.” Broadsides BRAZIL DELAYS IRANIAN WARSHIPS: Brazil rejected Iran's request to dock warships in Rio de Janeiro ahead of Brazilian President LUIZ INACIO LULA DA SILVA's visit to Washington to meet with Biden, Reuters' GABRIEL STARGARDTER and RODRIGO VIGA GAIER report. The ships were previously scheduled to dock from Jan. 23-30 but were later set to arrive on Feb. 26 through March 3. While Brazil's foreign ministry says there wasn’t any U.S. pressure to delay the warships' arrival, a U.S. official told Reuters said both sides engaged in discussions to avoid the Iranian vessels arriving before the meeting with Biden. The visit comes as both countries look to reset relations after former far-right Brazilian President JAIR BOLSONARO and Trump enjoyed warm relations, which may have emboldened Bolsanaro to sow doubt in domestic elections. Despite the visit by Lula, RYAN BERG, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, believes the U.S. still must take steps to advance its relationship with Brazil in areas other than security cooperation. “The Biden administration will have to find other ways of engaging the Lula government to advance issues like climate change, security, and business ties at a time that China is advancing its engagement with Brazil,” Berg told NatSec Daily. NSC spokesperson Kirby on Friday said the Biden administration made “no specific ask” of Brazil to block Iran from docking. INVEST IN HOMELAND DEFENSE: In a Wednesday night story, Alex wrote about how North Korea presented enough ICBMs to overwhelm America’s ground-based midcourse defense system known as GMD. The Hudson Institute’s REBECCAH HEINRICHS, who leads their Keystone Defense Initiative, told NatSec Daily that the system is “much better” than it was during the Bush years and that the U.S. should invest in its homeland defenses. “The homeland defense project was never supposed to be wrapped up with a few dozen ground based interceptors. It was always supposed to adapt to stay ahead of the threat,” she said. “Remember when Trump said we should expand the system by adding interceptors? He didn’t follow through. There are empty silos at Greeley as a monument to incompetency and an easily distracted president. This is a political failure.” “Homeland defense needs to evolve. We have cruise missile threats and other kinds of threats beyond ballistic and from peer adversaries, not just North Korea. So the fact that enemies are improving their offenses doesn’t mean we throw in the towel and accept vulnerability. It means we have to be as determined to deny them easy access to the homeland,” she continued. Heinrichs’ comments were prompted by Alex’s piece citing experts who have long been skeptical of the GMD system, arguing it's unlikely to stop a barrage of North Korean weapons targeting the U.S.     Transitions — Moldova Prime Minister NATALIA GAVRILITA resigned. Businessman and former minister DORIN RECEAN was named as the country’s prime minister-designate. — TERRY ADIRIM, who leads the VA’s electronic medical records modernization program, is set to leave her post, FedScoop reports. What to Read — Sen. MARSHA BLACKBURN, The Daily Caller: The Spy Balloon Was A Test — Biden Failed It — JON WOLFSTHAL, The Washington Post: Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons at our behest. Here’s what we owe them. — JENNA KRAJESKI, The New Yorker: Turkey’s Earthquake Response is as Political as the Conditions that Increased the Devastation Monday Today — The Henry L. Stimson Center, 9:30 a.m.: The End of the End of History? Global Implications of the War in Ukraine — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: The US Air Force and American defense strategy — The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Improving sanctions enforcement against Russia: The challenge of 2023 — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: Iraq And the United States: A Conversation with Iraq's Deputy PM and Foreign Minister FUAD HUSSAIN — The Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: Innovation and Experimentation: A New Approach for the U.S. Air Force in the Middle East with Lt. Gen. ALEXUS GRYNKEWICH — The Air and Space Forces Association, 12 p.m.: Air & Space Warfighters in Action: AFCENT Commander Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich — Exchange Monitor, 1 p.m.: 15th Annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who said it’s “plausible” she doesn’t know when she’ll fire us. We also thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who basically has earned tenure at this point. A message from Lockheed Martin: Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today. Many of today’s military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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