Friday, February 10, 2023

Axios Vitals: Entitlement election goals

Plus, 40 million could lose abortion bill access with court case | Friday, February 10, 2023
 
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Axios Vitals
By Tina Reed · Feb 10, 2023

Happy Friday, Vitals readers. Today's newsletter is 1,004 words or a 4-minute read.

🏈 Some Super Bowl trivia: Here's an interesting nugget from the archives: A study published in Socius in 2017, debunked an NFL claim that fans of winning Super Bowl teams experienced baby booms nine months later.

  • Yes, but: Another study, published in Early Human Development in 2019, did find evidence of nationwide increases across the U.S. in the ratio of baby boys born nine months after the big game.
 
 
1 big thing: Dems are itching to run on Medicare again in 2024

Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios

 

President Biden has spent the week contrasting Republicans and Democrats' positions on health care and entitlements, leaning into a political fight the party would love to have all the way through the 2024 elections, Axios' Caitlin Owens writes.

The big picture: How House Republicans handle the coming debt ceiling negotiations and spending-related decisions could have far-reaching implications, potentially handing Democrats what they view as a potent line of attack.

Driving the news: Biden's back-and-forth with Republicans on Medicare and Social Security was one of the most memorable parts of Tuesday's State of the Union.

  • He followed up with a speech in Florida on Thursday in which he attacked the GOP's positions on prescription drugs, the Affordable Care Act, Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security — a laundry list of some of Democrats' most comfortable policy arenas.
  • "I know that a lot of Republicans, their dream is to cut Social Security, Medicare. Well let me say this: If that's your dream, I'm your nightmare," Biden said.
  • Biden specifically called out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is expected to run for the GOP's presidential nomination, for choosing not to expand Medicaid in the state.

State of play: Republicans have repeatedly said they aren't pushing to cut entitlement programs.

  • But that commitment will almost certainly clash with the party's goal of producing a budget that balances over the next decade, which is nearly impossible to do without raising taxes, cutting defense spending or cutting entitlement spending.

Between the lines: In a speech Monday evening, McCarthy explicitly said that "cuts to Medicare and Social Security are off the table."

Reality check: The Medicare Board of Trustees has estimated that the Medicare Trust Fund will become insolvent by 2028, meaning that the next president will likely inherit a ticking time bomb in the program's finances.

Go deeper.

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2. Senate panel advances drug pricing bills

Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios

 

A group of bipartisan drug pricing bills that the Senate Judiciary Committee approved Thursday could go before the full Senate soon, but likely not before changes are made regarding how the government addresses competition problems, Axios' Peter Sullivan writes.

What they're saying: "Those are all bipartisan bills and they've all passed out of the committee before, so I think we have a running start to get those considered on the floor," said Judiciary Chair Richard Durbin (D-Ill.).

Yes, but: Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) raised criticisms in the markup about three of the bills, which seek to crack down on drug companies gaming the patent system to delay competition through citizen petitions, "pay for delay" agreements and "product hopping" and "patent thickets."

  • Lee said he wanted "substantial revisions to prevent FTC overreach."

Between the lines: The voice votes in committee today are a sign of the broad backing for these bills. But they've been approved by committees in prior years and never gone anywhere — and could face long odds this session in a divided Congress.

A version of this story was published first on Axios Pro. Get news like this by subscribing. Use code POLICY100 which gives you $100 off.

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3. States given formal notice of PHE's end

The Biden administration on Thursday gave governors formal notice that the COVID-19 public health emergency will expire on May 11 and laid out how countermeasures will transition from the government to the private market.

Why it matters: Health care industries have a great deal riding on pandemic waivers and flexibilities that will end with the PHE.

  • The end of the emergency will also come soon after states begin a redetermination of Medicaid eligibility that's expected to leave millions more uninsured. HHS said it will hold a special enrollment period so people who are dropped can apply for coverage through the Affordable Care Act.

Details: Administration officials on a call emphasized how key allowances in areas like telehealth will continue past the emergency — and how vaccines and treatments will remain widely accessible to all who need them, because authorizations won't be affected.

  • But the unwinding of the emergency will bring changes, including in how COVID health data is collected. Independent labs won't be required to send test results to states, meaning the CDC won't be able to accurately measure percent positivity.
  • There also are unresolved questions about how the uninsured will access vaccines and treatments once government supplies run out and purchases transition to the private market.
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A message from the Healthcare Distribution Alliance (HDA)

Ensuring the availability of COVID-19 treatments in 2023
 
 

This year, more and more COVID-19 vaccines, PPE and therapeutics will likely shift to commercial sales.

What this means: Healthcare distributors are ready to play an essential role in reliably delivering these vital, life-saving products to the public.

Learn more.

 
 
4. 40M would lose abortion access if court blocks pill

Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

 

Forty million more women would lose access to abortion care if a federal court revokes the use of a key drug in medication abortions, data from the abortion rights group NARAL shows, Axios' Oriana Gonzalez reports.

Why it matters: A U.S. District Court in Texas could decide this month to block the FDA's authorization of mifepristone, one of two drugs used to end pregnancies.

"It's the biggest thing since [the Dobbs decision]," said Mini Timmaraju, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, adding that it shows how anti-abortion groups "can go after abortion" even in states that protect access.

Details: NARAL data first provided to Axios and drawn from U.S. Census Bureau statistics showed that eliminating access to the pills would increase the number of people without access by more than 2.5 times.

  • If the Texas judge grants an injunction on the FDA's approval of mifepristone, drug manufacturers and distributors would have to immediately halt the sale and shipment of mifepristone regardless of what state a person is in.
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5. Catch up quick

💊 Medicare releases a draft of new drug pricing guidance, aiming to cut costs. (NPR) (Tradeoffs)

🫁 Australian researchers find protein in lung that blocks COVID infection. (Axios)

🦠 Johns Hopkins plans to shutdown its COVID tracker. (NPR)

💰 Centene agrees to pay $215 million settlement to California in alleged Medicaid overbilling. (Modern Healthcare)

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6. Dog of the week

Blake. Photo: Julian Ha

 

Meet Blake, or as we'll call him: DOTUS. (Yes, that's "Dog of The United States.") With this week's State of the Union address, it only seemed apropos to feature this photo of him.

  • "Blake joined us two years ago and is the bestest companion," writes his human, Julian Ha, a partner at Heidrick & Struggles.
Blake. Photo: Julian Ha.
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A message from the Healthcare Distribution Alliance (HDA)

Making the pharmaceutical supply chain more resilient
 
 

A more resilient supply chain requires enhanced collaboration between the public and private sector.

What you need to know: Healthcare distributors have been working with supply chain and government partners to build on our collective strengths and identify ways to enhance resilience.

Read more.

 

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Thanks for reading, and thanks to senior editor Adriel Bettelheim and senior copy editor Bryan McBournie for the edits.

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