| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Lawrence Ukenye | | 
China has struck a delicate balance between supporting its ally and not angering the world, which is why several experts said they need to see the intel to believe it. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo | With help from Phelim Kine Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt The scary prospect of China sending weapons to Russia is looking increasingly possible. U.S. officials say they have intel showing that China is considering doing so and that they may even go public with the info to bolster their case. The White House is issuing warnings to Beijing to stand down, as are allies across Europe. Over the past few weeks, the U.S. officials have worked to convince allies of China’s nefarious intentions and pressure Beijing to back off, as our own ERIN BANCO and PHELIM KINE reported Wednesday. In some ways, supplying weapons would be the logical progression of the “no limits” partnership Beijing and Moscow declared weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But there are skeptics that doubt China would actually take such an escalatory move. NatSec Daily talked to some of the experts who say China has good reason not to send lethal weapons to Russia to use against Ukraine. Chinese leaders “would have assessed that the state of the relationship [with the U.S.] is already so damaged that [sending weapons] really won't change things that much,” the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ BRIAN HART told NatSec Daily. “That would also mean, though, that they're willing to risk the fallout in Europe as well. I don't think that we're quite there yet.” Doing so would decimate any remaining relations with the United States, as the Biden administration has called that a “red line” in its own relationship with Beijing. Not to mention, the two nations still haven’t repaired the diplomatic damage done by the Chinese spy balloon that floated across America earlier this month. China has struck a delicate balance between supporting its ally and not angering the world, which is why several experts said they need to see the intel to believe it. “As long as China believes that it can drive a wedge between Europe and the U.S., it will exercise certain restraint in its relations with Russia,” said MARCIN KACZMARSKI, a lecturer in Security Studies at the University of Glasgow. Because Beijing has criticized the U.S. for “pouring oil” on the war, China may not want to appear to be doing the same if it follows through with sending weapons, said NATASHA KUHRT, a senior lecturer in international peace and security at King's College in London. Still, there’s a major draw to sending weapons: Beijing doesn’t want Moscow’s forces to be successfully pushed back to pre-war borders by a U.S.-led coalition. So, Chinese leader XI JINPING may decide there’s not much left to lose in regards to maintaining Western relations. If that’s what Xi decides, it “would be crossing the Rubicon in terms of China, Europe and China-U.S. relations,” said the Council on Foreign Relations’ DAVID SACKS. “It would mark the point officially where Ukraine becomes a proxy war and you see the world divided into pretty fixed blocks.
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 3/1 TO DISCUSS AMERICAN PRIVACY LAWS: Americans have fewer privacy rights than Europeans, and companies continue to face a minefield of competing state and foreign legislation. There is strong bipartisan support for a federal privacy bill, but it has yet to materialize. Join POLITICO on 3/1 to discuss what it will take to get a federal privacy law on the books, potential designs for how this type of legislation could protect consumers and innovators, and more. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | RUSSIANS CALL HOME: More than 2,000 intercepted calls from Russian soldiers in Ukraine paint a grim picture of how unprepared young soldiers and the country were for the war. Some soldiers joined the war because they needed money, while others were told they’d be welcomed back as heroes for liberating Ukraine from Nazi oppressors, according to the calls obtained by the Associated Press’ ERIKA KINETZ. Many were misled and grew accustomed to unthinkable violence. After his first battle last February, Leonid, a young soldier, expressed sympathy for Ukrainians his unit killed in a call to his mother: “They were lying there, just 18 or 19 years old. Am I different from them? No, I’m not.” TRAINING TAIWAN: The United States will more than quadruple the number of troops deployed to Taiwan as the pair ready for a potential Chinese invasion, The Wall Street Journal’s NANCY YOUSSEF and GORDON LUBOLD report. Between 100 and 200 troops will be sent to the island nation in the coming months, up from 30 troops last year, U.S. officials told the WSJ. The Michigan National Guard is also training Taiwanese troops, including during annual exercises at Camp Grayling in the northern part of the state. It’s the largest deployment to Taiwan in decades, coming as the U.S. expands its presence in the Indo-Pacific to prepare for increasing Chinese aggression. While there, the troops will train Taipei’s military on U.S. weapons systems and military maneuvers. SANCTIONS TBD: The United States will announce “sweeping” sanctions on Russia on Friday, targeting Moscow’s economy and its allies. Sanctions will focus on “key sectors that generate revenue for Putin, go after more Russian banks, Russia's defense and technology industry, and actors in third party countries that are attempting to backfill and evade our sanctions,” White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE told reporters. The fresh round of sanctions will come as President JOE BIDEN meets virtually with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and other leaders of the G-7 on the one-year mark of Russia’s invasion. The Biden administration is also preparing a roughly $2 billion aid package for Ukraine as both sides gear up for a spring offensive. SAY CHEESE: A selfie taken by an Air Force pilot with the Chinese spy balloon is real … and must take some serious photography skills. The Pentagon confirmed its authenticity, which was taken one day before it was shot down over the Atlantic, our own SHAYNA GREENE reported late Wednesday. It came to the public’s attention when writer CHRIS POCOCK posted the image on Tuesday, raising questions as to whether the photo — which gives a startling view of the infamous balloon from the U-2 cockpit — was real. “I saw that report. I can confirm the photo’s authenticity,” Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters. What’s unclear: if the pilot used a selfie stick. DEATH TOLL CLIMBS: More than 47,000 people have died following the Feb. 6 earthquake that struck parts of Turkey and Syria, with more than 43,000 of those deaths recorded in Turkey, the Associated Press reports. At least 164,000 buildings have collapsed or are so badly damaged that they need to be demolished, said MURAT KURUM, Turkey’s minister for environment and urbanization. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
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Lockheed Martin employees and customers are bound by a common cause. Ennobled by our shared patriotism, we will do all that is necessary to protect American and allied interests. Together, we will strengthen deterrence and help ensure mission readiness today. Learn more. | | | | | | PENCE-IVE ON UKRAINE: Likely GOP contender and former vice president MIKE PENCE said he would send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine if he were able to. “Absolutely. I would begin the process of getting pilots trained up. I’d get them the aircraft, I’d let Poland get them the aircraft,” Pence told Fox News on Wednesday. When asked about potential escalation, particularly if Ukraine attacks Russian territory, Pence said he believes “you've got to give Ukraine the resources to defend themselves,” dodging a follow up question on the topic. The former VP pledged his ongoing support for supporting Ukraine, sort of praising, sort of criticizing Biden. "I was glad President Biden went to Kyiv, but he should’ve gone to East Palestine first," Pence said, referring to the devastating train derailment in Ohio. The same day, former President DONALD TRUMP visited the town as he prepares for his 2024 run.
| | | NATO BID SABOTAGE?: Likely Russian hackers are masquerading as Sudanese activists in an effort to undermine Sweden’s pending NATO bid, our friends over at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report. For the last month, a group calling itself Anonymous Sudan has been flooding websites of Swedish organizations with traffic to try to shut them down and spreading information online that is damaging to NATO, according to research from Swedish security firm TrueSec. And surprise, surprise: TrueSec believes they’re not actually Sudanese due to their ties with Russian hacktivists groups. The most likely motive behind the group’s actions is to “create fear and uncertainty in Sweden and amplify outrage in Turkey at [RASMUS] PALUDAN's actions to complicate Sweden’s NATO application,” the report found. META’S HELPFUL MEDDLING: Meta’s efforts to limit engagement from Russian state-sponsored media outlets led to a sharp reduction in the spread of disinformation about the war in Ukraine, our own MAGGIE MILLER reports (for Pros!). By last August, there was an 80 percent decline in engagement from Russian media sites on Meta platforms after the company geoblocked access to Russian outlets in certain countries, according to a report from social media analytics company Graphika. Russia’s campaign of spreading false information has included claims of NATO aggression and human rights violations by Ukraine.
| | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | | FOR SALE: The Biden administration unveiled a new policy for transferring arms to foreign countries that prioritizes protecting human rights, which may lower the bar for denying sales, our own PAUL McLEARY reports. The Conventional Arms Transfer Policy was last updated in 2018 under the Trump administration and placed an explicit emphasis on the economic benefits of selling more military equipment overseas. The new policy is a departure from the old standard of having actual knowledge of a government committing civilian harm with U.S.-supplied weapons, softening that to a “more likely than not” ruling that it is a possibility, a senior State Department official told reporters on the condition of anonymity Wednesday. The policy comes as Biden has refused to sell offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia after the regime used American weapons to hit civilian targets in Yemen.
| | | AIR FORCE RECORDS: SAM PETERS and KEVIN DELLICKER, both of whom lost in midterm House races, claim the Air Force alerted them that their military records were improperly released during their campaigns, our own OLIVIA BEAVERS reports. The service believes that ABRAHAM PAYTON, a member of Due Diligence Group, a public records research firm, “improperly requested” the records of both Peters and Dellicker, and that there are 11 people total who’ve been affected by the unauthorized release of military information. House Republicans are actively investigating the release of records to learn if the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee used any of the information to their advantage. The revelation comes after a midterm election cycle in which candidates’ military service was scrutinized after some candidates lied or embellished their service.
| | | ANTI-U.S. ‘HEGEMONY’ SCREED’: China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry published a 4,000-word tract criticizing U.S. policy ahead of the one-year mark of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Phelim writes in. Titled “U.S. hegemony and its perils,” it includes accounts of U.S. debacles in Afghanistan and Iraq and gleefully deploys President JIMMY CARTER’s quote that the U.S. is “the most warlike nation in the history of the world.” The document reveals as much about the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s fears as it does about U.S. policy, obsessing about U.S.-backed “color revolutions” and pouring scorn on the Biden administration's upcoming sequel to last year’s Summit for Democracy. It also reveals that Beijing restricts the number of U.S. movies approved for distribution in China because “they scream American values.”
| | | |   | | | | | | — PATRICK KYHOS has been detailed to the White House to the Office of the National Cyber Director to be director for cyber operations and incident response. — Retired Army Maj. Gen. TODD ROYAR has joined Textron as vice president and lead executive for government affairs and Washington operations. — The Progressive Policy Institute is launching the New Ukraine Project to “report on the war, its impact on everyday life in Ukraine, and its wider implications for peace and international security.” The effort will be led by journalist and author TAMAR JACOBY, who is currently based in Kyiv. — ALISON HILLEGEIST is now director of corporate affairs at Venti Technologies. She most recently was associate director of the Middle East Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School. — ADELA RAZ is now a visiting fellow at Hudson Institute, focusing on women’s rights under Taliban rule, the security situation and China’s growing involvement in the country. Raz previously was the first female permanent representative and ambassador of Afghanistan to the United Nations.
| | | — JESSICA PISANO, POLITICO: How VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY united his country — with comedy — BETH SANNER and PETE FESLER, Foreign Affairs: The Chinese balloon was a necessary wake-up call — Rep. SETH MOULTON, The Boston Globe: Three reasons why the West must aid Ukraine to victory
| | | — The Royal United Services Institute, 5 a.m.: Russia’ War Against Ukraine — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Book Event - The Peacemaker: Ronald Reagan, the Cold War, and the World on the Brink — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 10 a.m.: Securing Contested Waters: A Conversation with NAVCENT Commander Vice Adm. BRAD COOPER — The Brookings Institution, 11 a.m.: Meeting the Russia challenge: Lessons from the foreign policy transition from Bush to Obama — The Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: JOHN BOLTON on U.S.-China relationship and war in Ukraine — The Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance, 11:30 a.m.: Ensuring Effective Integrated Missile Defense Architecture with our Allies and Partners — The American Enterprise Institute, 2:15 p.m.: Russia’s War on Ukraine: What Lies Ahead in 2023? Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wishes she could "pour oil" on this newsletter. We also thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who would put out the fire.
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