Friday, December 9, 2022

‘The Lord of War is back in the game’

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.
Dec 09, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Erin Banco , Alexander Ward and Matt Berg

Viktor Bout on plane.

"And now he's going to be way smarter because he knows some of the techniques that have been used against him," Derek Maltz, a former Drug Enforcement Agency agent, says of Viktor Bout. | Courtesy of Derek Maltz

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With help from Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman

At least one law enforcement official who in 2008 worked to track down VIKTOR BOUT, the Russian traded for BRITTNEY GRINER Thursday, is saying the release of one of the world's most notorious criminals threatens national security.

DEREK MALTZ, a former Drug Enforcement Agency agent, helped lead the team that eventually took down Bout 14 years ago in Thailand. Before his capture, Bout worked across the world selling arms, including to militants in Africa, to Al Qaeda and to the Taliban. He was set to serve a 25-year prison sentence. Now, Maltz says though he is happy about Griner's release, Bout's poses perhaps an even greater threat to Americans than before he was arrested.

"The Lord of War is back in the game. He's back out there with the ability to cause harm and destruction around the world," Maltz said in an interview. "And now he's going to be way smarter because he knows some of the techniques that have been used against him."

Maltz recounted the weeks leading up to Bout's arrest. He said JUAN ZARATE, who served as deputy national security adviser for combating terrorism in the Bush administration, asked the DEA to "look into pursuing Bout" in 2007.

Maltz and his colleagues at the DEA set up an operation that would eventually lead to Bout agreeing to sell millions of dollars of weapons, including 800 surface-to-air missiles, to two individuals working as confidential sources for the agency. In 2011, the Department of Justice said the DEA informants told Bout they wanted to acquire the weapons on behalf of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, or FARC, a desigated foreign terrorist organization.

They finalized the deal in Thailand where Bout told the informants "that he had been fighting the U.S. for about 15 years and that the U.S. is an enemy," Maltz recalled. "He was very eager and anxious to carry out this arms deal to kill Americans."

Maltz said while he's happy that Griner is home, he is "disappointed" with the deal.

"Russia's plan worked perfectly. We folded, and we sent back an international terrorist," he said. "I would love to ask President [JOE] BIDEN what he knew about Viktor Bout back in 2009 when he was being briefed by his national security team, because they were all very supportive of what DEA was doing. It is just kind of ironic that now all these years later, he's the president and there's a political decision that's been made, in my view, to do this swap."

The Inbox

'CONCERNS' ABOUT CLUSTER MUNITIONS: The Biden administration has "concerns" about fulfilling Ukraine's request for cluster munitions, weapons banned by more than 100 countries that Russia is using to deadly effect on the battlefield, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said, as Alex and LARA SELIGMAN report.

"According to our own policy, we have concerns about the use of those kinds of munitions," Kirby told reporters Friday, declining to confirm any specific request from Kyiv.

Ukraine's request for cluster munitions is just one of many that the Biden administration, for the moment, isn't actively considering, said a person familiar with the situation, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive topic. "It's not a 'no.' It's not something that's moving right now," the person said.

Congress has imposed statutory restrictions on Washington's ability to transfer cluster munitions, citing the risk to civilians. The president or the secretary of State can override these constraints, but a high standard must be met.

U.S. BATTLE FOR IRAN CONDEMNATION: The Biden administration is facing wariness even from some traditional global partners as it tries to get Iran kicked off a United Nations panel that promotes women's rights, according to four people monitoring the effort, our own NAHAL TOOSI and RYAN HEATH reported Thursday evening .

Iran's leaders already face widespread condemnation for the country's treatment of protestors, and an ousting would further humiliate. A vote on Iran's position on the 45-member Commission on the Status of Women is expected on Wednesday.

But not all countries are on board, underscoring how multilateral institutions can be a very tricky terrain for the United States, despite the Biden administration's efforts to build U.S. credibility in such forums.

"I have heard a lot of diplomats say they think Iran's actions are vile, but they worry that the U.S. will use these exclusionary tactics more in future. One day it's Iran, the next day it could be you," said RICHARD GOWAN, a U.N.-focused analyst at the International Crisis Group.

NEW SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA AND CHINA: The U.S. is expected to impose new sanctions against Russia and China today, targeting Moscow's use of Iranian drones in its invasion of Ukraine, Beijing's support of alleged illegal fishing, and human rights abuses committed by both nations, The Wall Street Journal's VIVIAN SALAMA and IAN TALLEY report .

Russian targets include officials allegedly responsible for "filtration camps" where Ukrainians have been held.Human rights groups have claimed that Russian troops have tortured citizens and committed other war crimes at the camps. In retaliation for Russia's use of Iranian drones, the U.S. will hit multiple Russian defense industry entities.

Chinese targets include about 170 entities allegedly involved in illegal fishing in the Pacific, which Western officials say Beijing has used to help broaden its maritime power by establishing a network of ports outside its territory. Sanctions were also set to include Chinese entities allegedly involved in human rights abuses against Tibetans, one official said.

GRINER IS HOME: Griner is back home in the U.S. after landing Friday morning at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland in Texas to undergo a routine medical evaluation for released hostages.

Asked Friday if there might be more prisoner swaps between the U.S. and Russia, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said "everything is possible," noting "compromises have been found" to make deals even with the backdrop of war.

Idaho Sen. JIM RISCH, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told NatSec Daily that trading Bout for Griner meant there was no "obvious" and "reasonable" path forward for securing former Marine PAUL WHELAN's release from Russian custody. The administration says its channels with Moscow on Whelan remain open and active.

DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the global national security and foreign policy scene prefers to unwind with a drink.

Today, we're featuring BETH SANNER, formerly the deputy director of national intelligence for mission integration and PDB interlocutor for President DONALD TRUMP.

She said her favorite cocktail right now is The Last Word, which her partner Dave makes expertly. That said, Sanner said her best cocktail experience was in her hometown of Fargo, North Dakota. A bartender at the Hotel Donaldson "made me a drink based on what I like, starting with gin — and he used a pine liquor." Unfortunately, the bar closed during the pandemic, though she hopes it can reopen soon.

Cheers, Beth!

IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com , and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33 .

While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi , @woodruffbets , @politicoryan , @PhelimKine , @BryanDBender , @laraseligman , @connorobrienNH , @paulmcleary , @leehudson , @AndrewDesiderio , @magmill95 , @ericgeller , @johnnysaks130 , @ErinBanco and @Lawrence_Ukenye .

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
Flashpoints

RUSSIA-IRAN DRONE LINE: Russia and Iran are considering a joint production line for drones, NSC spokesperson said in the same Friday briefing, confirming reports of their budding partnership .

Kirby said the Iran-Russia military partnership was "nearly full fledged," as Tehran has become Moscow's most important backer in its war on Ukraine. However, Kirby didn't say if a decision had been made to build the line or when it might become operational.

The U.S. assesses that Iran has sent "several hundred" unmanned aerial vehicles to Russia since the war began, per Kirby.

TALIBAN PUNISHMENTS BACK: The Taliban carried out its first public execution since recouping power 15 months ago, the greatest indication yet that the hardline Islamist regime is embracing the same penal system as before the U.S. forced them out of power — not softening at all as they promised.

"A convicted murderer was shot Wednesday, followed a day later by the lashing of 27 men and women in a soccer stadium on charges that included adultery, theft, drug use and running away from home," The Washington Post's PAMELA CONSTABLE reports .

To date, the Taliban had refrained from the harshest reprimands in a bid to gain international support and recognition for its government plus economic aid. But the unlikely prospect of either paved the way to a brutal crackdown on Afghans, including public whippings at soccer stadiums.

"Officials in the provinces where the punishments were carried out emphasized that the procedures followed the law and were ordered by Taliban courts, with the guilty given between 25 and 39 lashes," per Constable.

Keystrokes

U.S.-ISRAEL CYBER DRILLS: The U.S. and Israeli military held a cyber drill last week to train for Middle East-focused "real-world scenarios" The Times of Israel's EMANUEL FABIAN reports .

The drills between the IDF's Cyber Defense Brigade and U.S. Cyber Command took place at the Georgia Cyber Center and was the seventh such joint exercise between them.

Both the U.S. and Israel face cyber threats from Iran and continue to work together to thwart them.

Iran accuses Israel and the U.S. of using cyber weapons against it. "In June, an alleged Israeli cyberattack caused a large fire at a major Iranian steel plant. The attack was claimed by an anonymous group, but footage of the incident was published by Israeli TV, hinting that the operation had been carried out by Military Intelligence," Fabian wrote.

The exercise happened at the same time as NATO held cyber drills of its own, as our own MAGGIE MILLER noted .

The Complex

$275M UKRAINE PACKAGE: The U.S. announced a new $275 million military aid package for Ukraine that includes anti-drone and air-defense technologies Kyiv needs, though the exact systems remain unclear.

In this new tranche, Ukraine will receive more ammunition for HIMARS, 80,000 155mm artillery rounds, and counter-drone and air-defense equipment, among other items.

The package will come from the Presidential Drawdown Authority, meaning the weapons will come from existing American stocks, thus circumventing congressional approval for arms transfers.

The House voted Thursday night to send at least $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine next year.

On the Hill

$25M FOR REDUCING CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: Lawmakers are taking steps to make sure DoD puts its money where its mouth is on reducing civilian casualties. Language in the $858 billion defense policy bill that passed the House on Thursday authorizes $25 million in funding to staff Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN's planned overhaul of DoD's approach to mitigating and responding to instances of civilian harm.

The language, championed by Rep. SARA JACOBS (D-Calif.), codifies some of Austin's changes, for instance, the creation of a Center of Excellence for civilian protection, to ensure a new administration can't undo them, she told Lara.

It also requires DoD to contract with a federally funded research and development center to independently report on how the military distinguishes between civilians and combatants in military operations; extends DoD's global authority to make ex-gratia payments for another decade; requires a briefing on DoD's future manpower and resourcing needs; and requires greater specificity from the military regarding the geographic location of strikes resulting in civilian casualties in annual reporting to Congress.

"Every time Congress is briefed about an instance of civilian harm, we are almost always told that the service member followed the proper protocol and processes. So I think it's clear that it's an institutional not an individual problem," Jacobs said.

The $25 million – which lawmakers must still appropriate in the omnibus government spending bill – will go primarily to staffing the action plan, which calls for ultimately adding 160 people across the military's regional combatant commands focused on reducing risk to civilians from beginning to end of an operation.

"Like all things, it was a negotiation, and we wanted to make sure that we were codifying and protecting these reforms in future administrations while also giving this administration the flexibility they needed to figure out what they needed to do and how to do it," she said.

 

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Broadsides

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY: ELLIE SCHAACK LANDES has joined USAID as director of speechwriting for Administrator SAMANTHA POWER, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She previously was a senior director at West Wing Writers. MAANY PEYVAN, the current director, is moving to a new role in the front office as senior director for communications and policy.

Transitions

— CHRISTOPHER MILLER, The Financial Times: 'Hell. Just hell': Ukraine and Russia's war of attrition over Bakhmut

— FORREST MARION, Real Clear Defense: Army Recruiting and Post Renaming

— WILLIAM HARTUNG, Responsible Spacecraft: New spending bill squanders billions on dysfunctional weapons programs

What to Read

— The Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 12:30 p.m.: "Assessing the Ukraine War: What Analysts Got Right, What They Got Wrong, and What They Missed Altogether"

The Government Executive Media Group, 1 p.m.: "Implementing Agile Cyber Governance"

Federal Computer Week, 1 p.m.: "Securing the Nation Through Innovative Enterprise Services"

The Wilson Center's Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, 2 p.m.: "The Outlook for Strategic Competition in the Semiconductor Industry"

Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot me an email at award@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter.

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who we consider the "Lord of War on Our Copy."

And we thank our producer, Kierra Frazier, who lords over everything.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Our mission is to prepare you for the future by engineering advanced capabilities today.

Many of today's military systems and platforms were designed to operate independently. Through our 21st Century Security vision, Lockheed Martin is accelerating innovation, connecting defense and digital to enhance the performance of major platforms, to equip customers to stay ahead of emerging threats. Learn more.

 
 

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