Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Raphael Warnock’s feat and his future

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza and Rachael Bade

Presented by

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock speaks during an election night watch party.

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock speaks during an election night watch party on Tuesday, Dec. 6, in Atlanta. | John Bazemore/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

"I am Georgia. I am an example and an iteration of its history. Of its pain and its promise, of the brutality and the possibility."

And just like that, a Democratic political star was born.

Over the past 30 months, RAPHAEL WARNOCK has won a Senate primary, got the most votes in two general elections and won two runoffs. On Tuesday night, he finally won a full six-year term in the United States Senate.

A lot has been said about how flawed a candidate that Warnock's opponent, HERSCHEL WALKER, was. (A lot.) And so much of the conversation and coverage of Georgia's election centered on what it would mean for the power of a current and a former president.

But Warnock's three-point win Tuesday underscored his own talents and cemented the 53-year-old pastor as one of the nation's most compelling and effective Democratic politicians.

His five-election streak in a changing but still conservative state should be recognized as an amazing political feat. Warnock has managed to combine a compelling biography, going from Savannah's housing projects to MARTIN LUTHER KING JR.'s pulpit, with disciplined messaging, relentless organizing and a stunning capacity for small-dollar fundraising.

He has cobbled together a Biden-esque coalition ranging from hyped-up Democrats to moderate Republicans and independents. "I want all of Georgia to know, whether you voted for me or not, that every single day I am going to keep working for you," he said late Tuesday. "I'm proud of the bipartisan work I've done and I'm going to do more."

Warnock heads back to Capitol Hill with his political stock at a new high. While Georgia's runoff system is uniquely exhausting and historically suspect , it has redounded to Warnock's benefit: Saturation coverage of two consecutive runoffs has made him one of the most recognizable United States senators in the country.

He had the political world's undivided attention last night as he delivered lines like this: "[My mother] grew up in the 1950s in Waycross, Ga., picking somebody else's cotton and somebody else's tobacco. But tonight, she helped pick her youngest son to be a United States senator." Warnock's full speech

Walker concedes … 

"I want you to believe in America and continue to believe in the Constitution and believe in our elected officials," he said, adding: "There's no excuses in life, and I'm not going to make any excuses now, because we put up one heck of a fight." Video

Top Democrats respond …

President JOE BIDEN: "Tonight Georgia voters stood up for our democracy, rejected Ultra MAGAism, and most importantly: sent a good man back to the Senate. Here's to six more years."

VP KAMALA HARRIS : "Georgia voters said they wanted a Senator who would fight for them—and made it a reality when they reelected @ReverendWarnock to the U.S. Senate. Congratulations, my friend."

Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER: "Senator Warnock's well-earned victory is a victory for Georgia, and a victory for democracy and against MAGA Republican extremist policies."

Chuck Schumer's Democratic Party-themed socks.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer shows off Democratic Party-themed socks during a press conference on Tuesday, Dec. 6. He said was wearing them in anticipation of a Democratic win in the Georgia senatorial runoff. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

 

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More takeaways … 

— Things aren't improving for Trump. Yet another hand-picked Trump nominee has now lost, costing Republicans a golden chance to clog up Biden's administration by flipping the Senate and putting an exclamation point on a disastrous rollout for Trump's third presidential run. The result prompted more Republicans to speak out, though most continue to refrain from direct attacks on Trump.

"Should've been clear in the 2020 election and runoffs and even clearer when Kemp trounced his primary opponent earlier this year — Georgia has grown impervious to President Trump's charms," GOP strategist MATT WHITLOCK tweeted last night . "If he's on a future ballot there I'd count the state in the blue column (again)."

"[I]f Trump had hoped to scare away challengers, his sputtering launch could do the opposite," NBC's Jonathan Allen, Marc Caputo, Garrett Haake and Henry Gomez write, citing a senior official on Trump's 2020 campaign who added, "This is the problem with coming out this early and not being strong: All it does is force people to look for other options."

— Senate Democrats' lives are about to get easier. Democrats will now have an actual majority on congressional committees that are now evenly split, defanging the Republican minority. With 51 senators, Democrats can work through nominations — including judges – more quickly. As David Siders put it last night , "winning a real majority is hugely consequential."

The added margin also keeps any one senator — including Sens. JOE MANCHIN and KYRSTEN SINEMA who are mulling runs for re-election in 2024 — from gumming up the party's plans. And Harris, whose team has admitted being frustrated by her having to stick around town in order to break potential Senate ties, will now get to travel a lot more freely.

— The 2024 Senate map looks slightly better for Democrats. Republicans still have lots of opportunities , with Trump-state Democrats SHERROD BROWN (Ohio), JOE MANCHIN (W.Va.), JON TESTER (Mont.) all up for reelection. But Warnock's win makes the task of winning the majority that much harder.

More runoff reads: "'He never should have run for this seat': Aides say Walker's campaign was as flawed as the candidate," by Natalie Allison … "Warnock improved over 2021 in wealthier precincts," by WaPo's Phillip Bump and Lenny Bronner … "5 Georgia Takeaways: Scandals Still Matter, and Trump Faces Blowback," by NYT's Blake Hounshell … "Georgia is turning purple — and should be a 2024 early primary state," WaPo editorial

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. What caught your eye watching the results last night? Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

 

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BREAKING OVERNIGHT — "German cops arrest 25 far-right extremists for plotting coup," by Wilhelmine Preussen: "The plotters include members of the extremist Reichsbürger (Citizens of the Reich) movement, which refuses to recognize the modern German state and aims to replace it with an authoritarian new system. An active member of the German army's elite unit Special Forces Command is reportedly among the more than 50 suspects under investigation, as well as a former German MP from the far-right Alternative for Germany party."

SGOTUS IN THE SPOTLIGHT — Later this morning, second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will lead a White House roundtable on the rise of antisemitism in the United States. The event was Emhoff's brainchild, Eugene and Sam Stein report , and it "will further cement a status he never set out to have: one of America's foremost Jewish political figures."

Emhoff's concern about antisemitism long predates the latest shocking news cycles involving YE (formerly known as Kanye West), NICK FUENTES and Trump.

"The severity suddenly hit him like a ton of bricks," said DEBORAH LIPSTADT, the State Department's special envoy to monitor and combat antisemitism. "And he said, 'You know, I'm in this position. I've got to do something.'"

As second gentleman, Emhoff has embraced the ceremonial aspects of his Jewish identity. He has already hosted a virtual seder, lit the White House menorah and made matzo at a Jewish school in Washington. He visited the Holocaust museum in Paris during an official visit and attended his childhood temple in New Jersey. When he affixed a mezuzah to the entryway of the vice president's residence, he began to tear up , according to the rabbi who led the ceremony with Emhoff.

But Emhoff has found himself drawn toward a more political mission. In September, he met with leaders of the National Council of Jewish Women and penned a Rosh Hashanah op-ed launching his personal campaign against antisemitism. During a trip to Iowa last month, he visited a Kosher deli and tweeted about "how much it means to us to live proudly and openly as Jewish Americans."

Today's event, White House officials said, is another step in elevating the issue of antisemitism by the administration.

NDAA IS FINALLY HERE — After days of delay, a compromise National Defense Authorization Act was filed in the House Tuesday night — with some notable inclusions and omissions. The topline number is a whopping $857.9 billion, higher than Biden's request and than either Armed Services Committee had initially laid out.

What's in: Requiring the military to end the Covid vaccination mandate … Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND's (D-N.Y.) overhaul of sexual assault and other military justice cases … A Chinese semiconductor chip ban for federal contractors.

What's out: Sen. JOE MANCHIN's (D-W.Va.) permitting reform package … The Journalism Competition and Preservation Act … The Pregnant Workers Fairness Act … A reprieve to Boeing for a 737 MAX approval deadline … Repeal of the Iraq War authorization for use of military force … Marijuana banking reform.

What it means: Tons more money for the Pentagon, primarily. But the vaccine mandate repeal looks likely to get pushed through despite some Democratic objections — a win for Republicans, who had made the issue their chief sticking point in recent days, and for House GOP Leader KEVIN McCARTHY, who'd pressed Biden on this personally. More from Breaking Defense The bill text

BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY — The president will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9 a.m.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2 p.m.

HARRIS' WEDNESDAY — The VP will meet with Lithuanian PM INGRIDA ŠIMONYTĖ at 1:40 p.m.

 

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

Speaker Nancy Pelosi embraces former Washington Metropolitan Police Department officer Michael Fanone before the start of a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony honoring law enforcement officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi embraces former Washington Metropolitan Police Department officer Michael Fanone before the start of a Congressional Gold Medal ceremony honoring law enforcement officers who defended the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, on Tuesday, Dec. 6. | Alex Brandon/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

THE NEW BENCH — Democrats' gubernatorial successes in the midterms have handed the party a slate of (relatively) young, up and coming politicians, Zach Montellaro reports from New Orleans . From Michigan's GRETCHEN WHITMER to Maryland's WES MOORE to Pennsylvania's JOSH SHAPIRO, plus several others, this could be Dems' next generation. "It was the often commanding victories against Republican candidates backed by former President Donald Trump, coupled with dynamic on-the-stump presences and compelling life stories, that has Democrats buzzing about their futures."

IN THE MAIL — RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL broke with Trump and advocated for Republicans to vote by mail in a Fox News interview Tuesday: "There were many in 2020 saying, 'Don't vote by mail, don't vote early.' And we have to stop that." Her spokesperson later insisted to NBC that McDaniel's comments weren't about Trump.

THE WHITE HOUSE

HE'S RUNNING — It's still not officially decided, but Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN toasted with French President EMMANUEL MACRON to his likely plans to run for reelection, NYT's Katie Rogers and Annie Karni report . Jill Biden said they were ready for it. "It was a lighthearted moment … but the fact that the Bidens were willing to signal to an important foreign ally about the president's plans hints at how committed they are to a second term. The interaction also offered a window into the thinking of Dr. Biden, who has been held up as a decisive voice in her husband's deliberations."

STICKING TO HIS GUNS — Biden is considering speaking at today's National Vigil for All Victims of Gun Violence, Myah Ward scooped . He would be the first president to do so.

— The White House sees its big boost for community violence intervention programs as a crucial tool against gun violence, Myah also reports . The 18-month initiative will wrap up with a celebration Thursday, and the administration sees the work as some of its most effective to reduce crime and disrupt violence. But "it could be years before the program yields results that can be quantified and measured. And the Biden administration likely won't get any credit for the work any time soon."

FOR YOUR RADAR — "JFK Assassination Investigator Has Jarring New Claim About Oswald's CIA Involvement," The Daily Beast

CONGRESS

NOT ABOARD THE OMNIBUS — Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL warned Tuesday that it's "increasingly likely" Congress will have to pass a short-term continuing resolution to keep the government open and punt the funding fight into the new year. But top Senate GOP appropriator RICHARD SHELBY (Ala.), who met with Biden and Appropriations Chair PATRICK LEAHY (D-Vt.) on Tuesday, said he thinks there's still "a good chance" of striking a deal on the top-line figure this month. More from The Hill

One sticking point in negotiations is a Democratic to push to label some veterans spending as mandatory, Roll Call's Lindsey McPherson and Aidan Quigley report . Dems say rising veteran health care costs make the shift necessary, but Republicans see it as a ploy to try to get more non-defense priorities funded.

THE RABBLE-ROUSERS — Could the Senate soon have its own Freedom Caucus? The band of anti-McConnell Republicans is growing more organized, with no plans to stop needling their leader for changes anytime soon, Burgess Everett reports this morning . At least one member has called the group "the Breakfast Club," informally comprising MIKE BRAUN (Ind.), TED CRUZ (Texas), LINDSEY GRAHAM (S.C.), RON JOHNSON (Wis.), MIKE LEE (Utah), RAND PAUL (Ky.) and RICK SCOTT (Fla.). "The group's next move is a Wednesday press conference pressing Republicans to reject a leadership-negotiated spending bill this month, though Graham breaks from other conservatives in backing that measure."

SPEAKER FOR YOURSELF — House Republicans are in disarray over the far-right challenge to McCarthy's speakership bid, with allies of the GOP leader like Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) advocating for him in a conference meeting Tuesday, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report . McCarthy proponents are divided over how serious the threat is; some think it'll fizzle, but "other allies are starting to doubt that McCarthy can survive the gauntlet needed to win the gavel."

— Meanwhile, Rep. ANDY BIGGS (R-Ariz.), who put himself forward Tuesday as an official alternative to McCarthy, got into a Twitter spat with conservative radio host MARK LEVIN, with each man calling the other a fraud.

McCONNELL ON TRUMP — Responding to Trump's call for the termination of the Constitution to get reinstalled as president, McConnell on Tuesday swatted down the former president again — without condemning him explicitly. "Anyone seeking the presidency who thinks that the Constitution could somehow be suspended or not followed, it seems to me, would have a very hard time being sworn in as the president of the United States," the minority leader said. More from ABC

THE NEW MINORITY — Rep. ABIGAIL SPANBERGER (D-Va.) was elected to the newly created House Dem position of battleground leadership representative, beating Rep. MATT CARTWRIGHT (D-Pa.) in a 33-20 vote, per the Richmond Times-Dispatch .

THE NEW MAJORITY — McCarthy put out a detailed list of Republicans' oversight priorities for the new Congress — everything from immigration and the border to Big Tech, Afghanistan to the IRS.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Former Rep. DAVID RIVERA's arrest has put an uncomfortable spotlight on his longtime friend, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), WaPo's Beth Reinhard, Perry Stein and Annabelle Timsit report . Rubio isn't accused of doing anything wrong. But Rivera's indictment on charges of lobbying illegally for Venezuela includes mention of a 2017 meeting with a senator, which Rubio's office said was him. "If, as is alleged, this was an effort to soften his stance on sanctions, it failed miserably," Rubio's spokesman said, adding that Rivera didn't disclose he was advocating for Venezuela.

"Ted Cruz's daughter OK after HPD called to senator's home, rep says," KTRK-TV

TRUMP CARDS

BIG CONVICTION — A jury found the Trump Organization guilty on all counts in its New York criminal tax fraud trial, a blockbuster verdict against the former president's company and a victory for Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG. Jurors had deliberated for two days. The 17 counts, including conspiracy, carry a potential penalty of as much as $1.6 million. Sentencing will take place Jan. 13. An appeal is expected. More from USA Today

The step back: The verdict, "forever tarring the former president and the company that bears his name," could have political and legal repercussions for Trump, NYT's Ben Protess, Jonah Bromwich, William Rashbaum and Lola Fadulu write . It "could reverberate through his nascent 2024 presidential campaign, providing fodder for political opponents. It is also expected to embolden Mr. Bragg as he intensifies his broader criminal investigation into Mr. Trump."

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — Today the Supreme Court takes up the blockbuster case involving the once-fringe "independent state legislature" theory, in which conservative justices could massively empower state legislatures to wrest control from courts over elections. Opponents say such a ruling would damage democracy — including Arizona state Sen. PAUL BOYER, who was the only Republican standing in the way of many bills that would have transformed voting in his state in recent years. He tells Heidi Przybyla that "his experience shows there's nothing theoretical about the potential dangers."

Unchecked gerrymandering, major changes to election administration and even legislatures granting themselves the right to nullify an election are among the threats of which Boyer and others warn — and that conservatives say are overblown.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) has filed a Supreme Court amicus brief in Gonzalez v. Google , in which the high court could change the interpretation of Section 230 and the liability that tech companies face for content posted on their platforms. "Section 230 now allows platforms to escape any real accountability for their decision-making," Hawley writes, specifically advocating for the removal of recommendation algorithms from the law's umbrella. "Congress never intended that result, and the text Congress wrote does not compel it." The amicus brief

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

LUCK OF THE IRISH — Biden plans to tap a special envoy soon for Northern Ireland, nearly two years after MICK MULVANEY's departure left the position vacant, Bloomberg's Alex Wickham, Jennifer Jacobs and Kitty Donaldson report . The U.S. is looking to step up its presence there, as the U.K. and EU try to strike a deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement in April.

THE NEXT TRANCHE? — "More than $3 billion in a NATO fund may be sent to Ukraine," by Erin Banco and Paul McLeary

MAKING THE SALE — The State Department signed off Tuesday on two big defense sales: $3.75 billion in Abrams tanks, more vehicles and weapons to Poland, and $1.5 billion in Chinook helicopters to South Korea, per the AP .

"Judge dismisses lawsuit over Khashoggi's murder after the Biden administration backed immunity for MBS," Insider

MEDIAWATCH

STATE OF THE UNIONS — The NYT union said talks with management failed Tuesday, pledging that more than 1,100 workers will walk out Thursday. Unless a deal is reached, the work stoppage will last 24 hours and feature a 1 p.m. solidarity rally.

"'I always liked him': Tucker Carlson discusses relationship with Hunter Biden," Washington Examiner

MUSK READS

HUNTER FILES FALLOUT — ELON MUSK fired JAMES BAKER, deputy general counsel for Twitter, over the company's handling of the HUNTER BIDEN laptop story in 2020, the mogul announced Tuesday. Baker previously worked at the FBI, where he was involved with the Trump Russia probe. More from the N.Y. Post

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Yogananda Pittman is leaving the Capitol Police to lead the UC Berkeley campus police.

Roy Blunt and Amy Klobuchar sadly decided against keeping an owl in the courtyard of the Russell Building.

Tim Burchett made an invite for a 15-minute holiday party .

Madison Cawthorn settled his ethics case .

Sheila Jackson Lee, Buddy Carter and Glenn Thompson spoke the most on the floor this year, per C-SPAN end-of-year stats .

Al Franken, Kal Penn, Leslie Jones and many others will guest-host "The Daily Show" until next fall.

MAKING A LIST — Forbes' new ranking of the world's 100 most powerful women puts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at the top. Also on the list: VP Kamala Harris (3), Speaker Nancy Pelosi (25), Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen (33), Suzanne Scott (65) and U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield (82).

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Donna Brazile is joining Purple Strategies as a senior adviser. She's a former acting DNC chair and longtime strategist.

Michael Vazquez has launched a new social impact agency and consulting firm, The Maiden Group. He currently is an adviser at Public Private Strategies, and is a Biden USAID alum.

Prologue Strategies has added Tita Freeman and Lenny Alcivar as senior strategists. Freeman previously was a strategic consultant for Tita Freeman Communications and is a Chamber of Commerce alum. Alcivar previously was principal and owner of Alcivar Group and is a DOT, George W. Bush and Mitt Romney campaign alum.

Tabitha Jackson is now a political strategy associate at Sentinel Strategic Advisors. She most recently was a digital fundraising copywriter at the RNC.

OUT AND ABOUT — POLITICO's Women Rule held conversations about the future of work and a reception Tuesday night at the Waldorf Astoria. Moderated by Elena Schneider and Elizabeth Ralph, one panel comprised Marianne Cooper, Kate Gebo and Dionna Dorsey Calloway, and a keynote panel featured Kelley O'Hara, Lindsay Kagawa Colas and Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.). SPOTTED: Amy Walter, Amanda Bailey, Shari Yost Gold, Fatima Argun, Kathryn Hamm, Susan Lagana, Robin McGahey, Lauren Watt and Katie Feldman.

The Beer Institute hosted its holiday reception for congressional staff at Hawk 'n' Dove on Tuesday night. SPOTTED: Reps. Joe Sempolinski (R-N.Y.), Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), John Larson (D-Conn.), Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), Ben Cline (R-Va.), Ken Buck (R-Colo.) and Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.), David Morgenstern, David Caruolo, Teresa Skala, Kevin Kincheloe, Stef Webb, Liz Lopez, Susan Haney, Alex Davidson, Annie Starke Lange, Jeff Guittard, Bill Young and Brian Crawford.

TRANSITIONS — Michael Levin is now comms director for health care at HHS. He previously was strategic comms project manager at the FDA, and is an NIH alum. … Lila Nieves-Lee will be GOP staff director for the Senate Banking Committee. She currently is senior director for U.S. government engagement at Visa. … The Asia Group has added Kevin Bassney and Brett Fetterly as VPs in the China practice. Bassney previously was chief of staff to the CEO of People.ai. Fetterly previously was national security adviser to Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.).

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) (7-0) … Bloomberg's Bennett RothMolly Block of Sen. Kevin Cramer's (R-N.D.) office … Dafna TapieroAnne MacMillanSam Runyon of Sen. Joe Manchin's (D-W.Va.) office … Tyler Prell … POLITICO's Katelyn Cordero, Devika Modak and Sam Sutton Donna Goodison Sarah Mucha … ABC's Kathryn McQuade … International Trade Administration's Sam SchofieldBonnie GlickSuhail KhanRoma Daravi of Daravi Strategies … Kate TummarelloJeannie Lough … KPMG's Priya Dayananda Kyle Noyes NYT's Dean ChangMary Heitman Christina FreundlichCarole SimpsonMichael PunkeJJ "Mcgoo" McGrath Candy Glazer Noam Chomsky (94) … Dani Kimball of Sena Kozar Strategies … Mike Klein

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