Wednesday, December 7, 2022

🚨 Biden's urgent task

Plus: Camel in D.C. | Wednesday, December 07, 2022
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By Hans Nichols and Alayna Treene · Dec 07, 2022

Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 699 words ... 2.5 minutes.

🚨 Situational awareness: The Jan. 6 select committee plans to release its final report on Dec. 21, panel chair Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) said today.

 
 
1 big thing: Biden's urgent task

President Biden boards Air Force One last night in Glendale, Ariz. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

 

After the victory lap from last night's Raphael Warnock Senate victory in Georgia, President Biden will focus on his most urgent political task, Hans Nichols reports.

Why it matters: Biden needs to assemble a team that can replicate the Democrats' midterm success while fending off GOP congressional investigations that will look for the weakest members of the herd, starting in the Cabinet.

Former COVID-19 czar Jeff Zients has been busy preparing options for a potential White House and Cabinet reorganization, but most decisions were on hold until Biden learned the results of Georgia.

  • Biden aides are hesitant to give Republicans any chance to litigate the administration's policies through messy confirmation battles, especially right after the election.
  • They also don't want any potential Cabinet shakeup to be viewed through the prism of a midterm reset. If Cabinet officials leave, it may be later in the year.

The big picture: Biden still has some 40 embassies without an ambassador, including five from Group of 20 countries, according to the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service.

  • Biden wants his State Department fully stocked to deal with an uncertain world, with the war in Ukraine continuing and the global economy flashing warning signs of a serious slowdown.

The intrigue: The Georgia win, coupled with falling gas prices and a summer of legislative success, make it more likely that Chief of Staff Ron Klain will depart, according to people familiar with the matter.

  • Klain hasn't made a final decision, and the president as well as outside allies want him to stay.
  • But he has told colleagues that he is physically exhausted. He has lasted longer than nearly all of his predecessors in a job with punishing hours, according to Biden advisers.

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2. Primary danger at the state level
Data: Ballotpedia; Chart: Axios Visuals. Note: Thirty-two races with incumbents are still uncalled for 2022. 

State legislative incumbents are now more likely to be unseated during primaries than in general elections, Axios' Stef Kight reports.

  • 229 incumbents — 4.7% of the total who filed for re-election — were ousted in the primary season this year, the highest percentage since 2010, according to Ballotpedia data.

Compare that to the general election: Just 3.5% of all incumbent state lawmakers on the ballot lost last month, the lowest percentage of incumbents defeated since at least 2010.

  • Defeated incumbents were pretty evenly split by party, with 75 Republicans and 86 Democrats losing re-election.

The bottom line: This trend is currently being driven by Republican incumbents, 6.2% of whom lost to primary challengers this year, compared to just 3.1% who lost in the general.

  • Idaho had 18 Republican state lawmakers lose to primary challengers this year — a higher share than any other state.
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3. Potential House flips on marriage equality

Several House Republicans who voted "no" on the House bill codifying federal recognition of same-sex and interracial marriage are considering voting "yes" tomorrow after Senate changes, Axios' Andrew Solender reports.

  • Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) — who said in July he voted against the bill out of concern it would enable polygamous marriage, which senators took steps to address — told Axios he will "probably" vote for it.
  • Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.) said he is still reviewing the Senate version, telling Axios, "It's a very different bill than it was over here."
  • Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) told Axios he is "looking at the bill" and that religious freedom is "the issue that everybody started getting hung up on." He said "federalizing" a state issue is another concern.
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4. White House warning on antisemitism
Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff warned today of an "epidemic of hate," Axios' Erin Doherty reports.

  • "We're seeing a rapid rise in antisemitic rhetoric and acts," Emhoff said during a roundtable in the Indian Treaty Room at the Eisenhower Executive Building.
Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Emhoff, who is Jewish, said people "are no longer saying the quiet parts out loud. They are literally screaming them."

  • "What's happening now, it's visceral, it's real and that's why this is so personal to me."
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🐪 5. 📸 1,000 words
Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

With the Capitol in the background, Blanca Belloso and Jessi Alvarez take a photo with Delilah the camel from a nearby live nativity scene near the Supreme Court.

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