Tuesday, December 20, 2022

šŸ»Here’s How a “Rolling Bear” Market Could Play Out in 2023

Good morning. Most investors are hoping for the stock market to head higher in 2023, following...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. Most investors are hoping for the stock market to head higher in 2023, following this year's downturn. It's quite rare for the market to have two down years in a row. But a scenario could play out where that event occurs.

Goldman Sachs (GS) calls it the "rolling bear" market. It's the idea that inflation starts to come down, say to 5 percent, and policymakers blink. Or maybe they're forced to act due to something breaking in the credit markets. In any event, inflation takes longer to drop further, an interest rates remain higher for longer – both of which have a negative impact on stocks.

This scenario is a bit of a worst-case one. But traders can still expect downside volatility as long as inflation is high and interest rates are going up.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 32,757.54 -0.49%
S&P 3,817.66 -0.90%
NASDAQ 10,546.03 -1.49%
*As of market close
Stocks slid again on Monday, continuing the decline of the past two weeks.
Oil rose 1.2 percent, closing at $75.15 per barrel.
Gold declined 0.2 percent, hitting $1,796 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with Bitcoin going for $16,613 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stick With Industry Winners, Even When They're Being Cautious
The economy continues to slow. While that's starting to show up in declining year-over-year inflation rates, the market is warning about a recession in several ways.

Big businesses are one of the places where the alarm has been sounded. That's because a few companies have announced layoffs, of anywhere from 5 to 30 percent of their workforces. Typically, a company that can do more with less can fare well over time, however.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: B. Riley Financial (RILY)
Bryant Riley, Chairman and Co-CEO of B. Riley Financial (RILY), recently added 63,527 shares. The buy increased his holdings by 1 percent, and came to a total purchase price of just over $2.6 million.

The buy comes about 10 days after a $2.2 million buy for just over 51,500 shares. And other company insiders, including both executives and directors, have been sizeable buyers in recent months. The last insider sale, from a major holder, occurred back in May.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: 3D Systems Corporation (DDD)
Shares of 3D printing hardware and software provider 3D Systems Corporation (DDD) has lost over 62 percent of its value in the past year. One trader sees a further drop ahead.

That's based on the February $8 puts. With 59 days until expiration, 3,473 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 128, for a 27-fold increase in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $0.75 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Homebuilder Sentiment Drops for 12th Straight Month

The National Association of Home Builders reports that sentiment has dropped for the 12th straight month, with a read of 31 on the most recent sentiment index. The index is constructed so that a reading of 50 is neutral. The index had a reading of 84 in December 2021.
US Sees $4 Billion Profit on Oil-Reserve Sales

Amid a wild year for energy prices, the periodic sales from the strategic petroleum reserve resulted in a $4 billion profit for the US government. The profit resulted from reserve sales at a higher price than when it was last topped off a few years back. The US has plans to rebuy oil for the reserve when global prices drop.
Musk Polls Twitter on CEO Role

Billionaire Elon Musk has asked users on Twitter if he should step down from the role of CEO. Currently, respondents answering "yes" are leading. Stepping down wouldn't change Musk's ownership at the company, and any CEO would likely be appointed by Musk.
Epic Games Agrees to $520 Million FTC Settlement

Epic Games, best known for Fortnite, has agreed to a settlement with the FTC for $520 million. The regulatory agency claimed that the company misled millions of players, particularly children and teens, into paying for unintended in-game purchases.
Binance to Acquire Voyager Digital Assets for $1 Billion

Binance US, the American-based subsidiary of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has agreed to acquire assets from Voyager Digital in a deal worth about $1 billion. Voyager filed for bankruptcy over the summer, and had previously agreed to sell to FTX, before that brokerage collapsed last month.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
NRG  1.626%
DGX  1.447%
WFC 1.25%
MPC 1.212%
MCK 1.098%
BOTTOM
WBD 7.72%
KMX 6.12%
WYNN 5.447%
CZR 5.205%
DIS 5.084%

Quote of the Day
While June's decline led to big summer rally, it was still in the context of a bear market. I have long argued that the October 13th bottom was either the end of the bear market or a low of significance. Both remain in play.
- Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, on why the market's selloff over the past two weeks is reminiscent of the June drop, and why the October lows still remain the potential bottom for the market in this bear cycle.

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