Wednesday, December 21, 2022

😯Cracks in This Market Could Lead to a Panic

Good morning. It's easy to focus on the daily swings of the stock market – or even the more...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. It's easy to focus on the daily swings of the stock market – or even the more volatile cryptocurrency market. However, traders shouldn't overlook moves in the bond market, or even the credit market. Those markets don't move as fast. But they have more money involved. So when there's a relatively big move there, it can be a sign of future trouble in other markets.

Right now, one trend is the rising number of banking institutions taking advantage of the Federal Reserve's discount window. The total amount has spiked to $9.5 billion. While that may not sound like much, it's the highest since June 2020. And spikes in the discount window typically only occur amid deeper trouble in the credit markets.

Traders shouldn't get too bullish on stocks quite yet, until this trend ticks back down. And until then, we'll continue to look for opportunities to profit with put options, so we can make money no matter what the market is doing.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 32,849.74 +0.28%
S&P 3,821.62 +0.10%
NASDAQ 10,547.11 +0.01%
*As of market close
Stocks traded higher on Tuesday, following five losing sessions in a row.
Oil rose 1.1 percent, closing at $76.02 per barrel.
Gold rose 1.7 percent, hitting $1,829 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded lower, with Bitcoin going for $16,868 at the market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Look for Market-Beating Returns in Off-the-Beaten Path Names
Investors tend to gravitate towards great companies. Those companies tend to dominate their industry, and tend to grow massive. That makes it easier for investors to justify owning. While we're fans of big-name tech companies thanks to their high profit margins and industry positioning, many more off-the-radar companies can be big winners too.

That's especially true getting out of well-known tech and consumer brand name companies and into infrastructure and industrial stocks.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: NRG Energy (NRG)
Elisabeth Donohue, a director at NRG Energy (NRG), recently added 2,500 shares. The buy increased her holdings by 16 percent, and came to a total cost of $78,300. She was joined by another director who bought 3,500 shares, paying just under $108,000 to increase his holdings by about 4 percent.

A third director also bought 1,571 shares, paying just over $49,000. That's on top of a further series of insider buys recently, including a 15,000 share pickup from the President and CEO.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Seagate Technology (STX)
Shares of hard drive manufacturer Seagate Technology (STX) have been cut in half over the past year amid slowing demand for computer and computer parts. One trader sees a further decline over the next two years.

That's based on the January 2025 $55 puts. With 758 days until expiration, 5,000 contracts traded compared to the prior open interest of 117, for a 28-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $14.48 to make the trade.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Bank of Japan Shifts Bond Yield Policy

The Bank of Japan shifted its yield curve control policy. The country will now allow yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds to move 50 basis points on either side of its current target of zero percent. The move is intended to improve functionality in the bond market, while remaining accommodative.
Home Construction Declines in November

New home construction, as measured by housing starts, declined 0.5 percent in November compared to October. Over the past year, starts are down 16.4 percent. The move comes as mortgage rates have touched on 7 percent, more than doubling since the start of the year.
Congress Considers Changes to 401(k) Plans

Congress is considering a bill that would make several changes to the 401(k) plan. That includes increasing the mandatory withdrawal age to 75 from the current age of 72. It would also increase the contribution limits for older workers, and increase incentives for younger workers to start accounts.
Wells Fargo Faces $3.7 Billion CFPB Fine

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFBP) is fining Wells Fargo (WFC) $3.7 billion. The fine is to compensate consumers for the mismanagement of loans that impacted as many as 16 million accounts. The bank has been criticized for years for its policy of mismanaging consumer accounts.
Self-Driving Truck Company TuSimple Plans Layoffs

TuSimple (TSP), a self-driving truck company, is the latest tech firm to announce layoffs. The company plans to cut about 15 percent of its workforce, although some report that the layoffs may be for as much as half of the staff. The layoffs have occurred as the company lost a deal to co-develop self-driving trucks with Navistar.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
MRNA  6.593%
NEM  4.901%
SLB 4.234%
HAL 3.869%
GE 3.081%
BOTTOM
TSLA 6.779%
FDS 4.992%
GIS 4.075%
VFC 3.071%
BIDU 2.842%

Quote of the Day
As we near the end of December, investors are still waiting on that Santa Claus Rally, with stocks coming off back-to-back down weeks for the first time since September. Data showing inflation cooling may have given the market a short-lived boost, but the Fed standing firm with Powell driving home the point that rates could remain elevated for quite a while likely grounded some investors.
- Chris Larkin, managing director of trading at E*Trade, on why investors aren't seeing a year-end Santa Claus Rally, which typically occurs in the last two weeks of each trading year.

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