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| Presented By BlackRock |
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| Axios AM |
| By Mike Allen · Dec 02, 2022 |
| Happy Friday. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,440 words ... 5½ minutes. Edited by Noah Bressner. |
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| 1 big thing — Gingrich warns: Biden winning |
| President Biden and First Lady Jill Biden attend the 100th National Christmas Tree Lighting on The Ellipse on Wednesday evening. Photo: Roberto Schmidt/AFP via Getty Images President Biden "has carefully and cautiously waged war in Ukraine with no American troops." He just "had one of the best first term off-year elections in history." - Nancy Pelosi? Ron Klain? Jill Biden?
No. That was Newt Gingrich — leader of the Republican revolution of 1994, which swept him in as speaker of the House. - "Quit Underestimating President Biden," Gingrich wrote in a column this week. "[C]onservatives' hostility to the Biden administration ... tends to blind us to just how effective Biden has been on his terms."
Why it matters: Gingrich has a point. If you look at Biden's legislative accomplishments, he has exceeded expectations for a Congress where Democrats hold narrow majorities, and a country that's split in two. Gingrich, 79, told me: "I was thinking about football and the clarity of winning and losing. It hit me that, measured by his goals, Biden has been much more successful than we have been willing to credit." Biden agrees. Advisers tell me he hasn't made a formal decision about running again — that'll come over Christmas, ultimately made by him and the first lady. - But his friends tell me they think only two things could stop him: health or Jill.
With Republicans controlling the House, Biden won't be able to pass much in the second term. But the subtext of his Year 3 and 4 travel around the country will be: Look at my results. - He'll argue that he helped produce record-low joblessness, America-first jobs in manufacturing and computer chips, and the largest infrastructure and green energy bills in history.
- The way the White House will sell the record: "The most significant economic recovery package since Roosevelt ... The largest infrastructure plan since Eisenhower ... The most sweeping gun reform bill since Clinton ... Landmark China competitiveness legislation that's already bringing manufacturing jobs back from overseas ... The largest climate change bill in history."
Gingrich had this hard talk for his own party: "Today there is not nearly enough understanding (or acknowledgement) among leading Republicans that our system and approach failed." - "We need to rethink from the ground up how we are going to Defeat Big Government Socialism — including almost inevitable second-time Democrat Presidential Nominee Biden."
- "This is a much bigger challenge than I would have guessed before the election."
The bottom line: A month ago, it would have been tough to imagine a leader of the GOP's '90s-era New Right arguing that Joe Biden is not just a winner — but a role model. |
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| 2. 🗳️ Winners, losers in Dems' 2024 calendar |
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| Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios |
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| Iowa will be dethroned under tectonic changes President Biden is pushing to the Democratic primary calendar, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports. - South Carolina would be first-in-the-nation.
Why it matters: Biden's proposed shakeup is likely to be adopted. Bigger states will move up — making for a nominating process that may be less picturesque, but will be more representative. The details: Biden has asked DNC leaders to make South Carolina the nation's first primary state, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, The Washington Post reports. - Georgia is next. Michigan would be fifth.
- The changes elevate the diverse, working-class constituencies that powered Biden's primary victories in 2020, The New York Times notes.
💡 Josh breaks down the changes: - The calendar benefits moderates and African Americans. The "Clyburn voter" (moderate Black voters) are the key constituency in S.C. — and they'll be all the more important now. Adding Michigan and Georgia to the early voting mix only cements that.
- Forget retail politics. The only real "smallish" state left is New Hampshire — and it may get lost in the shuffle, going the same day as Nevada. Dem candidates will need big money and big connections to succeed with this map. Not a whole lot of room for scrappy underdogs.
- This also looks like a good calendar for Vice President Harris if Biden doesn't run in 2024, or if she runs in '28. She'd be well positioned in South Carolina and Michigan, and probably Georgia, too.
🌽 The bottom line: This is the end of the road for Iowa, which has been central to Democratic nominations going back to Jimmy Carter in 1976. - Iowa has no role in the proposed changes. That makes sense, given the way the country and the party have changed. But remember the Hawkeye States helped propel Sen. Barack Obama to the presidency.
Go deeper. |
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| 3. AI can be dumb without humans |
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| Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios |
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| It's easy to see new algorithms write a story or create an image from text and think that they are ready to take on a whole range of human tasks, Axios' Ina Fried writes in her weekly tech column, Signal Boost. - But AI systems' growing power makes it more important than ever to keep humans in the loop.
Why it matters: Machine-learning-trained systems can be confidently wrong — a dangerous combination. What's happening: Many of today's most powerful AI systems aim to offer a convincing response to any question, regardless of accuracy. - But an algorithm choosing a criminal sentence, for example, needs not only to serve the judge it's advising but also crime victims, perpetrators and society as a whole.
This doesn't mean "asking a neural network to understand racism," James Landay, co-founder of Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered AI, told a daylong gathering with reporters yesterday. - "It's asking the team building a system to understand racism. That's not a question computer scientists who are generally building these systems are equipped to handle."
📞 Case in point: Stanford professor Erik Brynjolfsson gave the example of automation in call centers. You can substitute machines for people and frustrate customers. Or the system can monitor calls and offer suggestions to human call center workers. |
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| A message from BlackRock |
| Invested in the future of retirees |
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| All across the country, people are working hard to build a better future. So, we are hard at work, helping them achieve financial freedom. At BlackRock, we are proud to manage the retirement plan assets of over 35 million Americans. Learn more. |
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| 4. 🔋 Tesla ships first truck |
| Photo: Tesla via Reuters Tesla CEO Elon Musk speaks during yesterday's live-streamed unveiling of the Tesla Semi electric truck, at Tesla's Nevada plant. - Tesla shipped the first battery-powered, long-haul Semi to PepsiCo, five years after announcing it, Reuters reports.
"If you're a trucker and you want the most badass rig on the road, this is it," Musk said. |
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| 5. 📊 Stat 1: Savings plunge |
 Data: Bureau of Economic Analysis via FRED. Chart: Axios Visuals Americans are spending most of what they're earning these days, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets. - The savings rate last month was the lowest since 2005 — and the second-lowest on record, according to Commerce Department data released yesterday.
Why it matters: Thanks to higher prices and a return to "normal" life, Americans are spending more and saving less. |
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| 6. 📊 Stat 2: Manufacturing falls |
 Data: Institute for Supply Management. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals An index measuring factory activity shows a contraction for the first time since 2020, Axios' Emily Peck writes from the Institute for Supply Management's index of manufacturing activity. - The dip was driven by a decline in orders for new stuff.
A contraction could be a signal of an economic slowdown to come. (This is basically what the Fed wants.) Analysts even trotted out the R-word. |
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| 7. 🥂 Biden's first state dinner |
| President Biden and French President Macron toast last night. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images The first White House state dinner of President Biden's administration drew big names Thursday from fashion, entertainment, politics and business to celebrate French President Emmanuel Macron — and the return of large social events after the pandemic, AP reports. - Jon Batiste — Grammy Award-winning New Orleans native, and former bandleader and musical director of "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" — provided the after-dinner entertainment.
Among the 338 guests: Apple CEO Tim Cook ... Julia Louis-Dreyfus ... Stephen Colbert ... shoe designer Christian Louboutin ... Anna Wintour ... plus Biden children Hunter and Ashley, and sister Valerie Biden. - Also MSNBC's Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski ... Robin Roberts of "Good Morning America" ... Jennifer Garner ... John Legend and Chrissy Teigen ... and Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez.
The dinner was held on the South Lawn. Photo: Andrew Harnik/AP Business luminaries included French luxury goods magnate Bernard Arnault ... movie mogul and investor Jeffrey Katzenberg ... private equity legend Henry Kravis ... and IBM CEO Arvind Krishna. - A bipartisan nod: Both Speaker Pelosi (at the head table) and House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy (not at the head table).
Democratic donors included Avram Glazer, who has given hundreds of thousands of dollars to Democratic causes; and Alexander Soros, son of George Soros and deputy chair of Soros' Open Society. |
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| 8. 🏈 1 fun thing: NFL record on the line |
 Table: Axios Visuals Bragging rights are on the line in Sunday's Bears-Packers game in Chicago, with the two franchises tied atop the NFL's all-time regular-season wins list at 786 each, Jeff Tracy writes for Axios Sports. 🧀 If the Packers win, they'll be the first team other than the Bears to own the outright lead since the 1921 Buffalo All-Americans, which had 18 wins at the time. |
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| A message from BlackRock |
| What's behind sinking confidence around retirement investing? |
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| Inflation and COVID-19 have taken a toll on people's ability to invest for retirement. BlackRock's 2022 Read on Retirement research explores how various generations are approaching life after work. Learn about BlackRock's commitment to providing retirement income solutions for Americans. |
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