| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Monday. Framing the race — Florida's governor's race was always going to be a referendum on the job Gov. Ron DeSantis has done the last four years. And as Election Day nears, DeSantis sounds very pleased about that. Squaring off — DeSantis and Democratic rival Charlie Crist will square off this evening in their first and only debate. It may mark one of the few times this campaign that DeSantis gives any extended comments about his opponent, who once was governor. Who's running? — DeSantis' reelection campaign has spent plenty on television ads ripping into Crist but, publicly, DeSantis — as evidenced this past weekend during a handful of campaign stops — is barely mentioning Crist. Going over the list — Instead, during his appearances, DeSantis zings the Biden administration and talks about his own record, including what he's done on education and how he handled the Covid-19 pandemic and hurricanes. "I overdelivered on what I promised to do," he told a crowd gathered at a synagogue in Surfside on Sunday. Response — Crist has tried for weeks and months now to question that record. He has hit him over the state's affordability crisis and teetering insurance market. Crist and Democrats have criticized DeSantis' stance on abortion and have maintained that Florida will not stop at its current 15-week ban on abortion (which includes no exceptions for rape and incest) if DeSantis wins a second term. Late in the game — The debate is likely Crist's last chance to stop DeSantis' march to a second term. President Joe Biden is headed to the state on Nov. 1 for both a fundraiser and a 'get out the vote' rally in South Florida that both Crist and Rep. Val Demings are planning to attend. The numbers — But Biden is underwater in the state and several new polls show the uphill battle for Democrats. One public poll released late last week showed Crist down by 11 points. A fresh poll out this morning by Telemundo/LX News had DeSantis up 51 percent to 44 percent among Hispanic voters in Florida. A new online/email poll out of Miami-Dade County — usually the firewall for Democrats — shows DeSantis could win the county outright. Everything is trending for DeSantis. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is scheduled to debate Charlie Crist at the Sunrise Theatre in Fort Pierce. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | RELEASED THIS A.M. — " Florida's Hispanic voters back DeSantis over Crist, support Martha's Vineyard migrant flights ," by NBC News Marc Caputo and Noah Pransky: "Florida's Hispanic voters back Gov. Ron DeSantis over Democrat Charlie Crist, and they even support the Republican's decision to fly migrants to Martha's Vineyard, according to a new Telemundo/LX News poll. Overall, DeSantis leads Crist by 51% to 44% statewide among those voters, and 56% approve of the job the governor is doing, compared with 41% who don't, the survey conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, found. DeSantis lost Hispanic voters by 10 percentage points when he was elected in 2018, exit polls showed, and if he wins them Nov. 8, it would all but ensure his victory in a state where Democrats traditionally need to rely on solid support from Hispanic and Black voters to overcome Republican advantages with white voters." TALE OF THE TAPE — " Crist and DeSantis, both instinctive politicians, bring rival management styles ," by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas: "In interviews with more than a dozen current and former staff of both governors, a picture emerges of two men who are both instinctive and ambitious politicians, often shunning conventional wisdom to rely on their own judgment, a trait that allowed each of them to push the envelope on politically-charged issues and achieve popular success during their time in office. 'Gov. Crist was a 'cheerleader in chief,' said Jeff Kottkamp, who served as Crist's lieutenant governor and is now a lobbyist. 'He would set broad policy and leave the details to those he put in charge of the issue.' By contrast, Kottkamp said DeSantis operates more like a 'commander in chief, which isn't surprising given his military background,' a reference to DeSantis' three-year stint in the Navy's Judge Advocate General's Corps." DEMINGS: 'I FEEL GOOD WHERE WE ARE' — Rep. Val Demings, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida, kicked off a statewide "Panhandle to the Keys" bus tour over the weekend with a little more than two weeks left before Election Day. She made several stops in north Florida on the first two days, including a visit to a Tallahassee grocery store on Sunday. Demings downplayed recent polls that showed her losing to Sen. Marco Rubio. "I feel absolutely wonderful going into Election Day," said Demings, who took limited questions from the media. She jabbed at Rubio for "running around" and "getting an endorsement over here and an endorsement over there." "This race is about the people, ordinary people who have to go to work every day so I feel good about where we are," Demings said. MEANWHILE — " A swing state no more? GOP confidence grows in Florida ," by The Associated Press' Steve People, Adriana Gomez Licon and Brendan Farrington: "The frustration is the culmination of nearly a decade of Republican inroads in Florida, where candidates have honed deeply conservative social and economic messages to build something of a coalition that includes rural voters and Latinos, particularly Cuban Americans. Donald Trump's win here in 2016 signaled the evolution after the state twice backed Barack Obama. And while he lost the White House in 2020, Trump carried Florida by more than 3 percentage points, a remarkable margin in a state where elections were regularly decided by less than a percentage point." | 
Rep. Val Demings, who is running for U.S. Senate against Sen. Marco Rubio, on Sunday greeted voters outside a Tallahassee grocery store as part of a statewide bus tour ahead of Election Day | Gary Fineout/POLITICO | REASONS FOR QUICK EXIT — " Before resigning, Charlie Crist's campaign manager was arrested in domestic violence case ," by NBC News' Marc Caputo: "The manager of Charlie Crist's Florida gubernatorial campaign was arrested in a domestic violence case a day before he resigned from the campaign, NBC News has learned. Austin John Durrer, 43, was arrested early Tuesday on a second-degree misdemeanor assault charge following a dispute at a Cambridge, Maryland, home, according to online court records and the prosecutor in the case, Amanda Leonard, who read a probable cause affidavit to an NBC News reporter over the phone." MORE THAN 1 MILLION BALLOTS CAST — More than 1.16 million people have voted by mail ahead of the Nov. 8 election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 489,685 have come from Democrats and 444,167 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are nearly 3.07 million mail ballots that have been requested but not yet returned. Of those, more than 1.36 million are held by Democrats and more than 954,000 are with Republicans. EARLY VOTING STARTS — Early voting kicks off on Monday in many of Florida's 67 counties, including in the state's urban areas. Some of the counties that will start voting include Alachua, Broward, Duval, Hillsborough, Lake, Leon Miami-Dade, Orange Beach, Palm Beach, and Pinellas. THE SITUATION — " Florida to play big role in battle for Congress, even if races are drama-free ," by McClatchy D.C.'s Alex Roarty: "In a departure from previous elections, Florida features only a handful of competitive federal races in next month's midterm election, with most seats solidly within either party's control. Gone are expectations of down-to-the-wire finishes, surges in national interest and deep-pocketed spending from super PACs that once marked the state every two years. Even the state's U.S. Senate race, between Republican Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Val Demings, has failed to generate the usual involvement from the country's biggest political groups." SPLIT SCREEN — " Abortion is Democrats' top talking point as economy surges on voters' priorities ," by Palm Beach Post's Stephany Matat and Antonio Fins: "Across Florida, Democrats are counting on anger and resentment over the curtailment of abortion rights to catapult them to victory on Nov. 8. But some are wondering if the laser focus may be too narrow as concerns over inflation and the economy surge again. 'Abortion is a major, serious issue for the Democratic base, and that is something that their voters are going to respond to,' said Rob Long, a Delray Beach Democrat who has been active party politics. 'The Republicans' messaging right now is focused on the economy, and that issue is going to carry across all walks of life. The economy affects generally everyone.'" CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — With a little more than two weeks to go before the election, DeSantis is stepping up to assist Anna Paulina Luna, the GOP nominee for Florida's 13th Congressional District. DeSantis endorsed Luna over the weekend and Turning Point Action is hosting a United & Win rally with DeSantis and Luna on Nov. 5. The move by DeSantis comes after a handful of Pinellas County Republicans said they were backing Democratic nominee Eric Lynn over Luna. … Black Voters Matters — in partnership with several groups — have been holding a bus tour through the state in an effort to mobilize Black voters as well as engage with faith-based leaders, Black influencers and students attending historically Black colleges and universities. The organization's "Blackest Bus in America" made its first stop in Jacksonville on Friday and after spending the weekend in central Florida will make its final stop in Miami culminating with a March to The Polls "We Won't Black Down" community rally in Miami Gardens. ... International Union of Police Associations — which has more than 4,000 members in Florida, endorsed Rubio for reelection. … International Association of Firefighters Local 1365 endorsed Demings for Senate. BY THE NUMBERS — The latest campaign finance filings show that DeSantis raised more than $3.68 million during the time period of Oct. 8 to Oct. 14, while Crist raised nearly $1.26 million. The total includes money raised for campaign accounts and for political committees controlled by the candidates. Following the money — The weekly total for DeSantis includes nearly $216,000 in public matching money as well as $250,000 from Lorybo Holdings, $250,000 from Whip Fund Raising and $125,000 from the Citizens for Principled Leadership political committee. The political committee, which is led by lobbyist and GOP state committeeman Bill Helmich , gave the check to DeSantis a week after the committee received $545,000 from Propel Florida, the mysterious group that has been pushing to beef up the state's data privacy laws. The weekly total for Crist includes nearly $164,000 in public matching money and $100,000 from the Teamsters Florida political committee and more than $71,000 from Democratic Strategies Network. In the bank — DeSantis has nearly $98 million unspent while Crist has nearly $2.17 million, according to state reports (which don't reflect any future planned expenditures). — " Eight questions for DeSantis and Crist ahead of Monday's debate ," by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas and Ana Ceballos and Tampa Bay Times' Lawrence Mower HMM — "' Big Mistake!': Trump drops Truth bomb after DeSantis endorses GOP candidate he disavowed ," by Washington Examiner's Daniel Chaitin: "Former President Donald Trump fired off a foreboding Truth on Sunday night, reacting to a Washington Examiner exclusive that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is recording a robocall for a Republican candidate whom Trump has rejected. That candidate is Joe O'Dea, the underdog Senate contender in Colorado who is trailing Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) in public opinion polls and last week made waves when he vowed to 'actively campaign against' Trump and spoke favorably of other party heavyweights, including DeSantis." — " More Republicans trust DeSantis than Trump to chart path of GOP: poll, " by The Hill's Olafimihan Oshin — " North Port home of U.S. House candidate Andrea Kale severely damaged by Hurricane Ian ," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Samantha Gholar
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | DROPPED — DeSantis' push to crack down on voter fraud faces an early loss , by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: A South Florida judge on Friday dropped charges against a Miami man swept up in Gov. Ron DeSantis' push to crack down on voter fraud, signaling an early legal loss for the administration's highly touted elections investigation unit. Miami Judge Milton Hirsch dismissed two voting-related charges the state filed against 56-year-old Robert Lee Wood, claiming that Office of Statewide Prosecutor does not have jurisdiction in the case. The Office of Statewide Prosecutor brought the charges on behalf of the newly-formed Florida Office of Election Crimes and Security, which was created at DeSantis' urging during the 2022 legislative session to stop voter fraud. — " DeSantis asks judge to let him avoid deposition on why he ousted prosecutor ," by Tampa Bay Times' Sue Carlton
| | CORONAVIRUS UPDATES | | 'IT'S A LITTLE WEIRD' — " Florida surgeon general touts book that backs QAnon conspiracy threat, " by Tampa Bay Times' Christopher O'Donnell: "Florida Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo appeared this week on a far-right podcast known for sharing QAnon-related conspiracy theories and misinformation. During a 30-minute interview with the X22 Report, Ladapo talked about his controversial recommendations against giving mRNA COVID-19 vaccines to children and to men ages 18 to 39. Ladapo stuck mostly to explaining his recommendations — and promoting 'Transcend Fear,' a book he's written about public health leadership. But some media and public health experts are questioning whether his appearance gives credence to a show that has been suspended by YouTube and Twitter and removed from Spotify because it violated the platform's policy against content that 'promotes, advocates or incites violence against others.'" | 
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis addresses a question from the media as Dr. Joseph Ladapo, Florida surgeon general, looks on during a news conference in Jacksonville, Fla., on Tuesday, Jan. 4, 2022 to discuss Covid-19 testing policy and monoclonal antibody treatment availability. | Bob Self/The Florida Times-Union via AP |
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | WHAT'S GOING ON HERE? — " He's 9 months old and a U.S. citizen. Why does Florida DCF want to send him to Haiti? " by Miami Herald's Jacqueline Charles and Jay Weaver: "He was born in Broward County to a troubled mother who lost permanent custody due to mental health struggles. His mother's parental rights to three of her older children had already been terminated. His father, back in Haiti, was not in the picture. Urged on by the Florida Department of Children & Families, a circuit court judge has ruled that 9-months old Ector — by birthright an American citizen — should be sent to Haiti to be with his maternal grandmother, who lives in a mountainous region and has no steady income." YUCK — " After Hurricane Ian, could a red tide bloom in Sarasota spoil the holidays? " by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Jesse Mendoza: "Hurricane Ian helped create ideal conditions for a red tide bloom this fall in Sarasota County, just in time to spoil the return of snowbirds and the holiday season. Samples taken this week show low levels of Karenia Brevis, a microscopic single-celled organism that causes red tide, present at several locations along the Sarasota County shore, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. Although samples indicate concentrations have not reached high enough levels to be considered a red tide bloom, the Florida Department of Health's Sarasota office issued a notice to the public Wednesday about red-tide conditions at many local beaches." — " Florida's jobless rate drops to lowest level since 2006 ," by The Associated Press — " DeSantis' 'reform board' could decide Broward superintendent's fate Tuesday ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Scott Travis — " Florida Commission on Ethics recommends Doug Underhill be removed from office ," by Pensacola News Journal's Jim Little
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — " As Publix redesigns Florida stores, its historic tile murals are becoming endangered ," by Susan Salisbury for the Palm Beach Post: "The artist who created 200 of the artworks adorning Publix stores starting in the 1970s, figures the murals have had a good run, and isn't lamenting their loss. I fed my kids off the paintings. I bought my house on the lake. It had three bedrooms, six bathrooms and a six-car garage," 86-year-old Pati Mills said from the Winter Haven townhouse where she now lives. "We worked for Publix, me and my kids, on commission for 25 years. I never had a contract." The 4-inch-by-4-inch bathroom tiles would break if they were removed from the wall, and it isn't practical to remove the murals and the walls, said Mills." BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Kamia Brown … Katie Sanders, managing editor at Politifact … Marianne Gengenbach with Florida House Democrats. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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