Monday, October 24, 2022

✅How to Get Ready for What Happens Next

Good morning. Last week's announcement by the Bank of England that they would intervene in the...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. A slowing economy could be in for a steep crash ahead. That's because consumer savings are being drawn down, after exploding higher during the Covid crisis. Now, 31 percent of Americans say they're not equipped for a downturn – even though the Fed has warned that there needs to be more pain ahead to bring down inflation.

When the job market finally starts to show some cracks, those who haven't prepared could be in for some sudden pain. That could lead to a bigger downturn ahead. That's why traders need to continue to look at downside trades, and use short-term market rallies as a way to take speculative positions off the table. Even if things don't get that bad… we're still going to be into a downtrend until the Federal Reserve pivots.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 31,082.56 +2.47%
S&P 3,752.75 +2.37%
NASDAQ 10,859.72 +2.31%
*As of market close
Stocks rallied on Friday, closing at highs of the day.
Oil rose 0.7 percent, closing at $85.12 per barrel.
Gold jumped 1.4 percent, last going for about $1,660 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded higher, with Bitcoin at $19,213 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Buy Great Companies While They're Cheap, Rather than Try and Time the Bottom
It's likely the stock market won't end its current downtrend until the Fed stops raising interest rates. But given how bear markets work, we may be closer to the end than the beginning. The best strategy now is to start buying great companies at beaten-down prices, rather than wait for a move higher.

That's because the start of a bull market may come with some skepticism. And investors who wait can miss out on the extreme bargains from the low.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: Fastenal Co (FAST)
Stephan Eastman, a director at Fastenal Co (FAST), recently picked up 1,000 shares. The buy increased his holdings by over 11 percent, and came to a total cost of just under $44,000.

He was joined by another director who picked up 500 shares around the same time, paying about $22,500 to get in. Theis follows on a number of director buys last month, and a 5,000 share buy from the company President and CEO.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Petroleo Brasiliero (PBR)
Shares of oil giant Petroleo Brasiliero (PBR) are up 48 percent in the past year thanks to strong energy prices. One trader sees a further rally in the coming weeks.

That's based on the November 11 $17 calls. With 18 days until expiration, 19,365 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 218, for an 89-fold jump in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.66 to get in.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
10-Year Treasury Yields Hit 14-Year Highs

10-year US Treasury yields hit 4.308 percent on Friday. That's the highest level the bond has traded at since 2008. Yields retreated a bit during trading, on news that some Fed members may want to see a slower pace of rate hikes after the next meeting.
US Considers National Security Reviews for Musk Deals

The Biden administration is considering conducting a national security review of a number of deals made by Elon Musk. That includes both privately-held companies like SpaceX and Starlink, as well as publicly-traded deals, like the proposed deal to acquire Twitter (TWTR).
"Meme trade" Era Ends as Volume Collapses

Retail trading has dropped significantly from levels in 2020 and 2021. Brokerage firms report a 15 percent drop on average between the second and third quarter of 2022 alone. And compared to 2021, trading levels are down by more than half.
Manhattan Townhome Sells for $57 Million

A townhouse on Manhattan's Upper East Side has sold for $57 million. That's part of a number of record-high townhome sales in New York City. The deal took place off market, and included the home's furnishings on top of the building itself.
Musk May Lay Off 75 Percent of Twitter Staff

Elon Musk may lay off as much as 75 percent of the staff at Twitter (TWTR). That could total as many as 5,600 employees. If so, that would be part of a plan to make the platform leaner, and potentially more profitable in time. Initial reports were that the billionaire would likely cut just one quarter of the staff once the deal is completed.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
SLB  10.331%
FCX  10.028%
HBAN 9.47%
NUE 8.518%
MRNA 8.397%
BOTTOM
SIVB 23.947%
RHI 8.555%
EQT 6.996%
HCA 5.728%
TWTR 4.844%

Quote of the Day
Our guess is that earnings will be good enough to keep the market in a trading range, but not enough to send it back up to its midsummer high and given the lagged nature of monetary policy, we would argue that time is not on the market's side. We would note that US rates continue to push out to new cycle highs, helping the USD trounce its peers.
- Michael Shaoul of Marketfield Asset Management on why the market will likely keep trading in a range for some time, as a number of factors are in place to keep stocks from a significant rise from here.

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