Making sense of the GOP’s October surge

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Oct 24, 2022 View in browser   By Calder McHugh House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control of the House. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images RED OCTOBER — Over the past two weeks, Republicans have gained ground in the battle for control of Congress. In its latest round of updates, POLITICO's election forecast moved multiple House races in the GOP's direction. Republicans have pulled into a slight lead on the so-called generic congressional ballot, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average , and the FiveThirtyEight forecast now puts the chances of Republican control of the House at 81 in 100, up from 69 in 100 on Oct. 6. But polling in recent election cycles has been unreliable, and this year has already seen seismic shifts in expectations — from a predicted GOP landslide early in the year to signs of hope for Democrats as recently as last month. With 15 days to go until the 2022 midterms, Nightly reached out to POLITICO National Politics Editor Scott Bland to make sense of the gyrations. It seems like the winds have shifted slightly toward the GOP in recent polls and forecasts. How much can we believe there's a noteworthy shift, and what might be behind it? In most of our recent elections, especially midterms, things have tended to go very wrong at the end for the party that lost. So it's not unusual to see some late momentum that carries through to Election Day. One thing I've noticed is that it seems like in a lot of places (though not all) where the GOP has seen recent polling improvement, it's more about the Republican candidate's numbers trending up than the Democrat necessarily sinking. So we're seeing a lot of situations where Republican voters unifying and some swing voters picking against the party in power are nudging GOP candidates past Democrats who have been ahead — but have never been above 50 percent of the vote. Do you expect that trend to continue through Election Day? Or is there a chance of numbers staying in the same place or moving again in a different direction? I would never, ever say that we're locked into anything — especially, though not exclusively, because polling is a tricky thing to do right now. And one of the hardest things about it is figuring out who is going to vote and in what numbers. Obviously those sorts of calculations can really change the boundaries of what might possibly happen. That said, one of the troubling signs for Democrats of late has been the relatively large shares of undecided voters who are sour on President Joe Biden and the economy. It stands to reason it's harder — not impossible, but harder — to try to drag those undecideds into the Democratic column on Election Day and an easier sell to get them to vote for the GOP. Turning specifically to the House for a second, we've moved from an environment six to nine months ago when there was discussion of a GOP landslide, to some discussion over the late summer of possibly a single-digit GOP gain and even Democrats having a chance at keeping the chamber. How would you describe the environment now? Can Dems make any sort of persuasive argument that they can keep the House? I'm going to lean for a moment on Ally Mutnick , our ace House campaigns expert, who has said that some of the Democrats she talks to say they can see a path to a really slim, 1- or 2-seat majority, but not beyond that. So that really tells you what kind of situation they're in. It feels like we're in an environment somewhere between one of the big recent backlash midterms, like 2010 or 2018, and a more neutral environment. That's obviously positive territory for Republicans, but it's hard to gauge just how positive — and like you've mentioned, there are these long-tail scenarios to consider of it turning into a GOP blowout on one end or, on the other, of Democrats somehow squeaking out a good election. The thing for House Democrats is that in order to keep the House, they have to scoop up a bunch of GOP-held districts that Biden won, to offset expected losses elsewhere. But they are having to play so much defense that it's been hard to invest in all of those races. There are just so many avenues for House Republicans to go down to flip the chamber, between redistricting, retirements and a lot of Dem incumbents in swingy seats. Does it look like the polls this cycle have improved? Obviously we won't know for sure until election night, but are pollsters controlling for errors they may have made in previous cycles? They are certainly trying! It's just really hard to get a representative sample of people to pick up the phone — or answer a text or whatever your mode of communication is — right now. Those response rates have been dropping toward zero for years, and of course the rates vary significantly among different subgroups with different political leanings. The thing I'm most on the lookout for is whether there's another polling error in the Midwestern/mid-Atlantic battleground states. That's where the biggest problems were in 2020, stemming from difficulty contacting Trump supporters in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and it also happens to be where some Democratic candidates have been running notably ahead of the fundamentals this year. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .   NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS  – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .     Poll Watcher 51 percent The percentage of likely voters in Pennsylvania who support Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, according to a new poll from CNN/SSRS . Forty-six percent of voters say that they support Republican Mehmet Oz. The poll, conducted from Oct. 13-17, is a good result for Fetterman, as other recent polls have Oz within the margin of error in one of the most pivotal Senate races on the map. What'd I Miss? Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images — Justice Thomas temporarily blocks Graham subpoena from Georgia grand jury: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas today temporarily halted a subpoena issued by an Atlanta-area grand jury seeking Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) testimony in its probe of efforts to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia. Thomas issued an order that will stay the Fulton County court's subpoena "pending further order of the undersigned or of the Court." The justice, who supervises the 11th Circuit, handed down the stay on his own — without indicating he'd referred the matter to the full court — which typically signals an order is administrative or interim. — American test scores prompt 'a moment of truth' for schools: American student test scores plunged by historic levels during the coronavirus pandemic , prompting soul-searching among education figures to chart a future path for the country's schools. New results from the National Assessment of Educational Progress, better known as the "Nation's Report Card," revealed steep declines in math and reading scores among U.S. fourth- and eighth-graders that Biden's top schools official described as unacceptable. — Son of Confederate flag-wielding rioter sentenced to 24 months for Jan. 6 breach: One of the first rioters to breach the Capitol on Jan. 6 has been sentenced to 24 months in prison for barging through a shattered window and helping chase a police officer near the Senate chamber. Hunter Seefried watched as another rioter — Proud Boy Dominic Pezzola — used a police shield to shatter a Capitol window, triggering the breach of the building. Seefried then helped clear glass from the window frame and entered the building. — Gunman kills 2 in shooting at St. Louis high school: A gunman broke into a St. Louis high school this morning, fatally shooting a woman and a teenage girl and injuring six others before police killed him in an exchange of gunfire . The shooting just after 9 a.m. at Central Visual and Performing Arts High School forced students to barricade doors and huddle in classroom corners, jump from windows and run out of the building to seek safety. One terrorized girl said she was eye-to-eye with the shooter before his gun apparently jammed and she was able to run out. — Biden admin set to warn about threats to nation's election infrastructure: Top Biden national security officials are tracking multiple threats to the nation's election security infrastructure ahead of the midterms and are set to issue warnings , including in an internal intelligence bulletin this week, according to two people familiar with the matter. The bulletin will lay out details of cyber threats posed by China and Russia, as well as other non-state actors, and potential physical threats to election officials in jurisdictions across the country.   JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE .     AROUND THE WORLD Incoming Prime Minister Rishi Sunak leaves party headquarters after having been announced as the winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest. | Dan Kitwood/Getty Images SECOND TIME'S THE CHARM — Rishi Sunak will be appointed U.K. prime minister Tuesday after his last remaining rival, Penny Mordaunt, dropped out of the Tory leadership contest, writes Eleni Courea . Sunak, the former chancellor, won the public support of almost 200 of his Conservative MP colleagues to succeed Liz Truss, who resigned last Thursday after a chaotic six weeks in office. It caps a remarkable political comeback for Sunak, who only last month was defeated in a head-to-head leadership contest with Truss and was subsequently excluded from her top team. He faces formidable problems, however, with the U.K. in the grip of an economic crisis, Conservative poll ratings in the doldrums, and the party riven by infighting. "I am humbled and honored," Sunak said. "It is the greatest privilege of my life to serve." Although Sunak faces intense pressure from the opposition Labour Party to call a general election following weeks of political turmoil, under the U.K.'s parliamentary system he will be under no obligation to do so until January 2025, as he now commands the confidence of the largest party in the House of Commons. FALSE PROJECTION — Xi Jinping is heading into another five years as China's paramount leader with a tightening grip on the ruling party and a vow to cement the country's superpower status at home and abroad. But that projection of strength belies a critical weakness: China's tanking economy, and Xi's inability or unwillingness to fix it, writes Phelim Kine . On Sunday, Xi walked onto a Beijing stage to confirm his appointment to a third term, followed by a new top leadership team purged of rival factions and packed with loyalists — a procession that telegraphed party cohesion and strength. Yet, for all its reputation as an economic juggernaut, China is struggling. Its economic growth is slowing, due to factors ranging from Xi's zero-Covid strategy to inflation related to the war in Ukraine, according to the World Bank. China's youth joblessness rate stood at about 19 percent in August. That's dangerously high for a party that trumpets rising living standards as proof of wise governance. The Chinese Communist Party has kept hold of power in part because of decades of consistent economic expansion. If Xi can't continue to make good on that promise, it could threaten his grip on power. Nightly Number 8,018,219 The number of early votes cast as of 5 p.m. today. That's on par with the 2018 midterms, when turnout broke national midterm records. In Georgia through the first five days of early in-person voting, turnout was up over 70 percent compared to the 2018 midterm elections, as a hotly contested Senate contest has voters going to the polls. Radar Sweep RECKONING REFERENDUM — Voters in Minneapolis will get to choose a new prosecutor this November for the first time since the murder of George Floyd . The race raises all sorts of questions — do voters want an aggressive prosecutor intent on punishing crime or one who wants to go after more structural reforms to the system? One candidate — Martha Holton Dimick — is running on a traditional law-and-order agenda, while another — Mary Moriarty — is talking about progressive criminal justice reform. Eamon Whalen reports for Bolts Magazine. Parting Words Maryland Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore greets a supporter. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images DISPATCH FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL — Wes Moore wants his party to reclaim patriotism. The 44-year-old former investment banker and nonprofit CEO is on the precipice of making history as Maryland's first Black governor. Moore's also already being talked about as a future leader of the Democratic Party — and one aspect of his message is his attempt to recast how Democrats talk about patriotism, Zach Montellaro emails Nightly. On the trail, Moore filters his campaign through a lens of love for and service to America (and Maryland), even in its darkest moments. Central to his stump speech is a story he tells about his grandfather, whose family was driven out of the country by the KKK when his grandfather was a young boy. But despite that, his grandfather — whom he called "the most patriotic American" he knew and who would go on to become his church denomination's first Black minister — eventually returned. Why? Because, in his grandfather's words, "this country would be incomplete without me." Moore also riffs on the stump about the patriotism of everyday Americans who work as teachers and first responders to collectively better their communities, and raises his own military service as a reference point for his campaign mantra: "Leave no one behind." In an interview on his campaign bus after a day of campaigning in southern Maryland, Moore said that his focus on optimistic patriotism is intentional. He acknowledged Democrats had ceded ground on the concept of patriotism to the GOP. "How can you cede this idea of what it means to be a patriot when we are the party that continues to fight for the extension of rights?" he asked rhetorically, before talking about expanding economic opportunity. "That's patriotism. That's about making our country the nation that we hope it to be." Moore's version of patriotism is one that doesn't dismiss the country's dark history. But it is one that ultimately appeals to America's better angels and a sense of collective service. "Loving my country does not mean lying about its history. Loving my country means I embrace the unevenness of it," he told Nightly. "The image of the United States is still, to this day, what we hope it to be. But I embrace that. And I embrace the fact that I should be part of the solution." Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   Follow us

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