| | | | |  | | By Madison Fernandez | | | | FIRST IN SCORE — There's only one goal in a primary: win. Vote share is just for bragging rights in a first-past-the-post system. And this cycle, a number of candidates in battleground races advanced to the general with less than half of support in their primaries. That's according to a new report first shared with POLITICO from FairVote, a pro-ranked choice voting group. In all, 120 candidates advanced from House, Senate and statewide primary elections this cycle with less than 50 percent of the vote. More than half of that group earned less than 40 percent of the vote in their primaries. The issue at hand, the report suggests, is that it can send unpopular party nominees to general elections. These are the candidates in the general in races to watch — ones that POLITICO forecasts as a toss-up, lean Democratic or lean Republican. Senate: Republicans have a handful of first-time Senate candidates who have struggled throughout the cycle, from fundraising to solidifying their policy positions. Republican Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania earned one of the lowest shares of the vote — 31 percent. Although his opponent John Fetterman does continue to have a lead over the last few weeks, Oz's campaign appears to be closing the gap. Still, Oz has a negative favorability rating in recent polling. In Ohio, J.D. Vance earned 32 percent of the vote. But there's been increased optimism regarding Vance's chances over Democrat Tim Ryan in recent weeks. In Arizona, Blake Masters received 40 percent of the primary vote. He's still trailing incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in the polls. And New Hampshire Republican Don Bolduc, a far-right candidate Democrats wanted to face, earned 37 percent of the vote. Sen. Maggie Hassan leads Bolduc in the polls, but her campaign signaled that the race is tighter than it seems. Governors: A number of Trump-backed candidates in governor's races won with less than a majority vote. Arizona's Kari Lake was the closest to a majority with 48 percent. Recent polling shows her virtually tied with Democrat Katie Hobbs. Wisconsin's Tim Michels earned 47 percent in his primary. While he's leading or tied in some polls, he still has an unfavorable candidate image — although it's better than Democratic Gov. Tony Evers'. On the other hand, Pennsylvania's Doug Mastriano got 44 percent; Michigan's Tudor Dixon received 40 percent; Nevada's Joe Lombardo earned 38 percent; and Oregon's Christine Drazan won 23 percent. (She's now battling in a three-way general election where the winner is unlikely to get majority support.) House: More than 40 competitive House races advanced a candidate who did not receive a majority vote. You'll find these candidates in both of New Hampshire's districts (Republicans Karoline Leavitt in NH-01 got 35 percent and and Bob Burns in NH-02 got 33 percent of the vote), NY-22, where Democrat Francis Conole got 39 percent, and VA-07, where Republican Yesli Vega had 29 percent. The report also found that more than 30 of these primary winners are favored to win their elections. These include safe-seat-seeking Democrats Dan Goldman in NY-10, Jonathan Jackson in IL-01 and Shri Thanedar in MI-13, who all won their primaries with under 30 percent of the vote. On the gubernatorial side, Democrats Wes Moore in Maryland and incumbent Dan McKee in Rhode Island earned 32 and 33 percent, respectively. "With more than 90 percent of congressional districts so partisan that the election is decided in the primary, our elected officials are increasingly chosen by only a fraction of a fraction of the electorate," FairVote president and CEO Rob Richie said in a statement promoting ranked choice voting. Happy Monday! Thanks for making us part of your long weekend (although are there any days off when the big day is less than a month away?). Send tips and tricks to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the general election: 29 Days until the 2022 World Cup: 41 Days until the 2024 election: 757 Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You'll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day's biggest stories.
| | | THE DOCTOR WILL SEE YOU NOW — Pennsylvania's medical sector is campaigning during this cycle in unprecedented ways, motivated by abortion and concerns about their profession. POLITICO's Alice Miranda Ollstein reports : "They're flanking Democrats at campaign rallies and knocking on doors in flippable state legislative districts. They are registering patients and colleagues to vote. At town halls and in ads, they warn that doctors, residents and medical students will avoid a state where they could be prosecuted for helping a patient terminate a pregnancy — damaging one of the largest and most recession-proof pieces of the economy." "It's a major shift for Pennsylvania's medical community — the fourth-largest job sector in the state, employing more than 400,000 people — as doctors and medical organizations are usually hesitant to wade into politics, careful to maintain good relations with both the Democratic governor and Republican legislature. … The focus on how abortion restrictions impact the medical community comes as Democrats make closing arguments in the races for governor and senator — two contests where polls show them ahead — and state legislature, where Democrats are targeting about a dozen Republicans in an attempt to seize control of the statehouse for the first time in nearly 30 years." … How is abortion policy impacting the midterms? The latest "Inside the Forecast" episode takes a look at how Democrats have been using the issue in their campaigns — and how Republicans are responding.
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| DEBATE UPDATE — It was a big Friday night, with Senate debates in Wisconsin and North Carolina. If you didn't have your split-screen up, you can catch a recap of Wisconsin here, courtesy of POLITICO's Holly Otterbein and Nancy Vu, and for North Carolina here , by The News & Observer's Danielle Battaglia. GOP nominee J.D. Vance and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan tonight in the race for Ohio Senate tonight at 7 p.m. EST. BORDER POLITICS — "GOP Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' chartered migrant flights to Martha's Vineyard sparked a national outcry and accusations from Democrats that Republicans were trying to shift the midterms conversation away from abortion," POLITICO's Lisa Kashinsky reports. But weeks later, "immigration isn't leapfrogging abortion or the economy on lists of voters' top concerns in national polls and surveys in key battleground states. Spending on immigration-focused ads is up in Florida, Texas and Arizona — where term-limited Republican Gov. Doug Ducey has also bused migrants to blue cities — but not elsewhere." MUM ON MAL — "While Donald Trump's legal travails have made headlines for two months now, the courtroom drama kicked off by the FBI's Mar-a-Lago search is barely registering in one important place: battleground races this fall," POLITICO's Nicholas Wu and Jessica Piper report . "Out of more than 5,800 distinct TV and digital ads since the Aug. 8 search of the former president's Florida property, fewer than 20 mentioned Mar-a-Lago or the Justice Department. … Republican ads mentioning the FBI search of Trump's home have largely been digital ads aimed at recruitment for email lists or fundraising — or TV ads in late primary races, looking to build on outrage among a portion of the Republican base. General election ads, by contrast, are more likely to highlight issues such as inflation or crime." REDISTRICTING WOES — Illinois lawmakers rewrote their congressional map last year so aggressively that even as the state lost a district after the 2020 census, Democrats managed to net an additional seat for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That was the plan, anyway. POLITICO's Shia Kapos writes: "With the prospect of losing the House if the GOP wins just six seats in November, Democrats are finding that even places they carved out for themselves are frustratingly competitive as economic concerns spook voters." In particular, IL-17, a conservative district held by outgoing Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos, is the background for a tight race between Democrat Eric Sorensen and Republican Esther Joy King, who entered the race with strong name recognition after losing to Bustos by 6 points in 2020. Illinois' other open seat, the newly formed 13th District, was gerrymandered as a landing spot for Democrat Nikki Budzinski. She's facing Republican Regan Deering. BUDDING QUESTIONS — How a potential Sen. Ted Budd — one of the most conservative members of the House — might operate in the upper chamber is one of the biggest questions facing Tar Heel State voters as the race comes down to the wire, POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers report . Budd "insists he will carry on in the unconventional tradition of the state's GOP senators if he defeats Democratic nominee Cheri Beasley next month. … The three-term congressman, a member of the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus, counts near-pristine records with conservative groups and last month voted against funding the government through December, breaking again from [Republican Sens. Thom Tillis and Richard Burr, who are known for their independent streaks]."
| | | Q3 CORNER — Democratic candidate for NY-19 Josh Riley raised over $1.6 million and has $1 million in the bank. — Republican Rudy Yakym, the candidate in IN-02, raised $500,000. He won the Republican nomination to replace late Rep. Jackie Walorski on Aug. 20. — The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee and its affiliated organizations raised nearly $9.9 million. It reached a cycle total of $45 million at its fastest pace ever. October quarterly filings are due in 5 days. But my inbox is always open, so send them along today. — The NRSC is canceling the remainder of its fall ad slate for New Hampshire after launching a coordinated ad with GOP nominee Don Bolduc earlier this week. The move comes as New Hampshire appears increasingly out of reach for the GOP, although Republicans still have millions more on the books for the final month of the campaign. — "Arizona's Republican Party raised record sums in 2021 with repeated appeals to supporters for money to help audit the 2020 presidential election," The Washington Post's Josh Dawsey and Yvonne Wingett Sanchez write . But text messages suggest that "Arizona GOP leaders had no intention of using donations to help pay for the audit effort, despite what it had been telling its supporters in fundraising pleas. In the end, the $6 million audit was bankrolled through a separate fundraising effort by election denier groups, along with $150,000 in initial taxpayer money. … In total, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol found that more than $250 million was raised off fraudulent claims that the election was stolen." — Billionaire Richard Uihlein donated an additional $13.9 million to People Who Play by the Rules PAC, the group spending big against Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. — President Joe Biden's first fundraiser for the Democratic Governors Association, which took place last week, brought in over $1 million for the group. The fundraiser, which took place at the home of Dale LeFebvre, the founder and chair of controlled investment private equity firm 3.5.7.11, was one of the largest in DGA's history.
| | | FIRST IN SCORE — The pro-gun control group Everytown for Gun Safety Action Fund is launching a $2.3 million ad campaign in Michigan, Zach writes in to Score. The group is running a pair of ads — both on TV and online in the Detroit media market — going after Republican gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon. One ad, called "extreme," attacks Dixon over both abortion and gun control: "She opposes a woman's right to make her own health decisions. And wants to ban abortions," the ad's narrator says. "She opposes common-sense gun safety laws that save lives." The second ad is focused on gun violence , saying Dixon is "flooding our streets with guns" and that "she even supports a plan that could cripple police, with deep budget cuts." FIRST IN SCORE — Republican candidate for Colorado Senate Joe O'Dea is out with a new attack ad against Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet with a $600,000 statewide buy. The ad ties Bennet to President Joe Biden, calling him "Biden's yes man." "Joe O'Dea is his own man," the ad continues. Biden is set to visit Colorado on Wednesday, when Bennet is set to appear with him. — MAGA, Inc., the new super PAC sanctioned by Trump, has made bookings in Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada. The Nevada ad hits Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto over inflation, as does the spot in Ohio against Tim Ryan. The Pennsylvania ad against John Fetterman focuses on crime — a line of messaging that's been prevalent in the Senate race there. And in Georgia, the line of attack focuses on culture wars and incumbent Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock's voting record. … But will Trump's last-minute spending have a big impact? The ads are unlikely to reach as many viewers as the campaigns and even some other outside groups, Jessica reports. "The Trump-linked super PAC is entering saturated TV markets in each state, where the hotly contested races have already attracted major cash from campaigns and other outside groups. The latest buys also come at the moment when political TV advertising is most expensive — particularly for super PACs, which already pay higher rates than candidates."
| | | — The Wisconsin Senate race continues to be close, with Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leading Democrat Mandela Barnes 50-49, according to a CBS News poll . The governor's race is a 50-50 tie between Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and Republican challenger Tim Michels. (1,138 registered voters, Oct. 3-7, MoE +/- 3.7 points.) … Another CBS News poll in Michigan puts Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer ahead of Republican Tudor Dixon 53-47. (1,285 registered voters, Oct. 3-6, MoE +/- 3.6 points.) — Want a catch up on what happened last week in the polls? Our Steve Shepard has a new weekly check-in on the latest polling in 10 key Senate races this fall. The big takeaway from the last week: The battle to control the 50-50 Senate is at a stalemate — according to the polls, anyway.
| | | — Taylor Crowe, the political director for Republican Herschel Walker's Georgia Senate campaign, was "fired after suspected leaking to members of the media," CNN reports . That came days after the report The Daily Beast published las week alleging that Walker reimbursed a previous partner's abortion. (POLITICO has not independently verified The Daily Beast's reporting. Walker called the report a "flat-out lie.") CODA — HEADLINE OF THE DAY: "Bullet-proof glass, guards: U.S. election offices tighten security for Nov. 8 midterms" (Reuters) | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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