Saturday, October 1, 2022

78 charts on the US markets

Also: A double-edged sword for private debt; Catch up on all our Q3 tech research; Don't miss our popular research on down rounds and two new webinars
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The Research Pitch
October 1, 2022
Trending research: What do down rounds really mean for VC-backed companies? Our exploration into the data has been a popular note. Read it here.

Industry expertise: Catch up on the Q3 research from our emerging tech team, with report previews across the verticals in our growing scope of coverage:
 
Revisiting our bird's-eye view of US private markets
Private market investments, by their very nature, are long-term endeavors.

Funds typically take years to fully deploy capital, and 10+ year fund horizons make measurement of private market performance a view over decades.

With that understanding, day-to-day tracking of financial markets is less meaningful for this portion of an allocator's portfolio.

Still…

The last few months have suggested that something of a regime shift for markets is underway. High inflation, rising rates, low (negative) economic growth, and 2021's overoptimism have made the present downturn impossible to ignore for private market investors.

To cover the broad implications of the macro environment on alternative assets, we launched our Quantitative Perspectives: US Market Insights last year near the height of the euphoria. One year on, the climate has clearly shifted.

This week we released our second edition, covering everything from macroeconomics, private equity, venture capital, real assets, and debt markets.

Spotlighted in this edition, we estimate that new investor interest in committing capital to private funds has dwindled in 2022—that's despite robust fundraising figures.

The difference in our analysis is that we measure an allocator momentum metric by looking at new capital deployed in respective strategies, over and above the recycling of distributions from 2021 and relative to strategy size.

The results show a pullback for buyout funds and a slowing of momentum for VC and PE growth vehicles. The chart below estimates new deployable capital as a share of the prior year's AUM.
 
Click to read more. 2022 adjusted to account for a partial year.

Some additional highlights include: 
  • We estimate the market cap of PE- and VC-backed companies at more than $6 trillion combined.

  • Capital raising for infrastructure funds has already surpassed 2021 figures, with $55.6 billion closed. Plus, new deployable capital as a share of 2021's AUM is a robust 11.8% this year.

  • Loan volumes have pulled back considerably as rates move higher; middle-market new issue yields have nearly doubled to 8.4%.
This analysis and much more are available in our 70-page, chart-driven report.

Download our free research: Quantitative Perspectives: US Market Insights

As always, please reach out with any questions or feedback.
 
Thanks,

Zane Carmean, CFA, CAIA
Quantitative Research Analyst
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Market Updates  
 
Private debt fundraising has slowed in 2022.

The current macro landscape is a double-edged sword for these funds, according to our new Global Private Debt Report, as floating-rate loans become more lucrative and fixed-rate loans more attractive.

Highlights from the report include:
  • Direct lending remains the standout strategy, garnering more than a third of the private debt capital allocated in H1.

  • The private equity market's growth is expected to spur private debt fundraising, as increasingly large PE deal sizes and purchase price multiples provide opportunities for direct lenders.

  • The leveraged loan and high-yield bond markets have struggled in 2022, according to LCD, with direct lenders stepping up in both the US and Europe to provide liquidity.
get the free report
 
 
Emerging Tech Research  
 
VC funding for the Internet of Things market cooled in the first half of 2022 amid challenging economic conditions—Q2's $2.8 billion in total deal value marked a quarterly low since 2019.

The IoT sector's reliance on global supply chains and cyclical industries such as manufacturing may leave it more vulnerable to economic uncertainty, but the shift to connected cars continues to drive investment in the space.

Our new Internet of Things Report explores VC trends in the vertical and highlights emerging opportunities in connectivity management, software-defined vehicles, and wireless power.

The report also includes a market map of the industry's subsegments, from smart homes to healthcare and IoT security, and takes a closer look at companies such as Ambiq and Uptake:
read a free preview
 
 
Webinars & Events  
A few upcoming events:
  • Oct. 18—Join our fireside chat with fintech policy analysts Ryan Schoen and John Sonsalla on what the sector should expect from policymakers in 2022 and beyond. Register here.

  • Oct. 20—Join us as we discuss best practices for managing cash flow forecasting in private market investments. We'll touch on setting commitment schedules and how to think about liquidity needs due to uncalled commitments. Register here.

  • Nov. 2—We're co-sponsoring and will be participating in the Intelligent Applications Summit 2022 in Seattle. The event will bring together leaders who are building and enabling intelligent applications in the business and life science sectors. To request an invitation, click here for more details.
 
Commentary  
Mobility tech analyst Jonathan Geurkink weighs in on Porsche Ventures' investments in the sector amid the famed automaker's recent IPO:

"Porsche Ventures' investments are spread across a broad swath of technologies and services from materials to vehicle finance, customer service, and even electric bikes.

"According to PitchBook, Porsche Ventures has invested in 38 companies over the past three years, and 18 year-to-date.

"Some of the larger deals include Rimac Automobili a Croatian designer and manufacturer of electric hypercars, Group14 Technologies, which is developing next-generation EV battery components promising greater power and charge capacity, and Cresta, which is developing an AI platform to improve customer service."

 
Jonathan Geurkink

Emerging Technology Analyst
Mobility Tech & Supply Chain Tech
 
In the News  
Our insights and data featured in the press:
  • Why the macroeconomic backdrop presents a  mixed bag for the private debt industry. [Citywire Selector]

  • For VC market watchers, one of the hardest parts of dealing with 2021 data is the lack of clear benchmarks. [WSJ]

  • Middle market PE firms are increasingly turning to add-ons, particularly in industries such as healthcare, financial services, and information technology. [Institutional Investor]

  • Between 2000 and 2021, private equity funds received $4.9 trillion in contributions from their investors but distributed only $5.1 trillion. [Bloomberg Opinion]

  • PE firms are revealing a shifting interest in different specialties within healthcare. As one example, primary care is gaining momentum. [Healthcare Services Investment News]
If you're a journalist interested in interviewing our analysts or requesting data, contact our PR team.
 
ICYMI  
Highlights from our other recent research:

Market updates
Thematic research
Coming next week (subject to change)
  • PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor: First Look
  • Sustainable Investing Report
  • Global Markets Snapshot: September
  • Fintech Public Company Valuation Guide
  • Our reactions from Mainnet 2022 (sneak peek!)
 

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