News : Who's in pole position

Thursday, September 1, 2022

Who's in pole position

Sep 01, 2022

STATE OF THE RACES — Two new Democratic primary polls show the two remaining attorney general candidates are locked in a dead heat ahead of Sept. 6, while Secretary of State Bill Galvin continues to lead his challenger, and Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll outpaces her competitors for lieutenant governor.

Up first, the toplines from the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion survey:

— Galvin leads Tanisha Sullivan 56 percent to 21 percent, with 22 percent of likely voters undecided.

— Driscoll leads the lieutenant governor field with 33 percent support to state Sen. Eric Lesser's 23 percent and state Rep. Tami Gouveia's 13 percent, with 30 percent undecided.

— Andrea Campbell edges Shannon Liss-Riordan 32 percent to 30 percent, within the poll's 3.9 percent margin for error. The survey of 800 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted Aug. 16-25, showed Quentin Palfrey at 11 percent ahead of his exit from the race.

These numbers include leaners — people who are likely to vote for a certain candidate but haven't fully committed. UMass Lowell pollster John Cluverius tells Playbook that at this late stage, the candidate someone is leaning toward "is a good indication of who they will eventually vote for."

Now the numbers from the UMass Amherst/WCVB poll:

— Galvin leads Sullivan 46 percent to 27 percent; with leaners, it's 49 percent to 30 percent.

— Driscoll leads her rivals with 25 percent support to Lesser's 15 percent and Gouveia's 13 percent; with leaners, it's 31 percent for Driscoll, 17 percent for Lesser and 15 percent for Gouveia.

— Liss-Riordan edges Campbell 26 percent to 25 percent, within the poll's 5.1 percent margin for error, and 29 percent to 28 percent with leaners. The poll of 500 likely Democratic primary voters, conducted Aug. 26-29, put Palfrey at 10 percent without leaners and 11 percent with them.

The auditor's race is where things diverge:

— The UMass Lowell survey shows Chris Dempsey leading state Sen. Diana DiZoglio 37 percent to 23 percent, with 37 percent undecided.

— The UMass Amherst/WCVB survey shows them tied at 22 percent apiece, or 26 percent with leaners.

While there's plenty to dissect between the two polls — they put numbers behind how candidates are struggling to grab voters' attention without a marquee race atop the Democratic ticket, and why Palfrey dropped out — the biggest takeaway here is about the current state of the AG race:

Liss-Riordan's strategy of flooding the airwaves and people's mailboxes — by investing at least $4.8 million of her own money into her campaign — appears to be paying off.

Her support nearly tripled from UMass Lowell's April and August polls, growing from 11 percent to 30 percent, and she saw a similar jump between UMass Amherst's June and August surveys.

At the same time, the number of likely Democratic primary voters who had never heard of the Brookline labor attorney dropped from 50 percent in UMass Lowell's April poll to 26 percent in August. And her favorability rating rose from 11 percent in UMass Lowell's April survey to 31 percent in August.

Campbell's support, by contrast, only ticked up 2 percentage points between the UMass Lowell polls and her favorability rating ticked down one point to 27 percent. Her support grew by 8 percentage points in the UMass Amherst poll.

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Another thing both polls show? People still like Gov. Charlie Baker. Like, really like him.

At 73 percent, Baker had one of the highest favorability ratings in the UMass Lowell poll. And he had a 72 percent job approval rating in the UMass Amherst poll — two points above the Democrat vying to succeed him, Attorney General Maura Healey. But more people disapprove of how Baker's doing his job than how Healey's doing hers.

TODAY — Secretary of State Bill Galvin holds a pre-primary media availability at 10:30 a.m. at the State House library. Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito and U.S. Ambassador to Ireland Claire Cronin attend the ribbon-cutting ceremony for a new DUA office at 1:30 p.m. in Brockton. AG Maura Healey tours Massasoit Community College at 3 p.m. as part of her gubernatorial campaign. GOP governor candidate Geoff Diehl attends a food truck night in East Bridgewater at 4:30 p.m.

What are you watching before primary day? What mailers are you getting? Email me: lkashinsky@politico.com.

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DATELINE BEACON HILL

— "The numbers don't lie: DOR says the state took $2.94B too much in taxes," by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald: "Gov. Charlie Baker sent the Legislature a plan to spend an extra $1.6 billion Wednesday just as the Department of Revenue notified the state's auditor it had taken $2.94 billion too much in taxes and would need to send it back to taxpayers. … Auditor Suzanne Bump will have until Sept. 20 to determine if Chapter 62F, the 1986 law which requires excess revenue be sent back to taxpayers, has been triggered, though the Baker administration and the Legislature have been operating since July as if the law will go into effect for just the second time since its passage."

— "'The power of incumbency is very real': Only 10% of Beacon Hill lawmakers have a primary challenger," by Steve Brown, WBUR: "Twenty-one sitting state legislators in Massachusetts face challengers in Tuesday's primary election. That's just about 10% of all State House seats. The low number's not unusual. While there are some competitive statewide races on the ballot, legislators often get a free ride to retain their seats."

— "Political Notebook: Conservative group gives thumbs up to Norfolk's Dooley, thumbs down to Mass. Legislature," by Tom Reilly, The Sun Chronicle: "Our lawmakers have been awarded the moniker of 'the most liberal in America,' according to the Center for Legislative Accountability. … But, since that group is a project of the Conservative Political Action Coalition Foundation and the American Conservative Union Foundation, it's probably not meant as a badge of honor. … Of the 30 Republicans in the Legislature only eight received awards this year from CPAC for voting with the conservative position at least 80% of the time. … The top ranked Republican lawmaker in the rankings is state Rep. Shawn Dooley, R-Norfolk."

FROM THE HUB

— "Wu, Warren, Markey, Pressley, and others pull their support of Arroyo in Suffolk DA's race," by Danny McDonald, Boston Globe: "Boston City Councilor Ricardo Arroyo, under scrutiny for years-old sexual assault allegations, saw his big-name political backing vanish Wednesday as Boston Mayor Michelle Wu, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Edward J. Markey, and Representative Ayanna Pressley all pulled their support for his candidacy for Suffolk district attorney just days before the primary election. Their abrupt abandonment of Arroyo came after the first public comments from one of his alleged victims, a former high school classmate who said Arroyo coerced her into providing oral sex in 2005. The woman, who the Globe is not naming to protect her privacy, said 'women are not going to feel safe calling his office' if Arroyo is elected district attorney."

Not everyone is deserting Arroyo: Boston City Councilors Kendra Lara and Tania Fernandes Anderson are still on his dwindling list of supporters. Lara, a survivor of sexual assault who's known Arroyo since she was a teenager, told Playbook that others are "making the choices that they have to" in a "really sensitive situation." But as Arroyo sues the city to get officials to release the documents related to the investigations in which he was not charged, Lara says she's going to "have [Arroyo's] back until I have information that shows otherwise."

— "Boston City Council chambers cleared as raucous meeting spills into hallways," by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: "City Council President Ed Flynn led Wednesday's meeting off with a hopeful if, in retrospect, ominous plea that 'we all be respectful to each other.' Jabs between councilors and members of the public, F-bombs and even fists flew soon after. It was clear that no appeal was going to quell the deep and to an extent, race-based tensions laid bare by the controversy around Ricardo Arroyo, who lost most of his support earlier after new information came out about old sexual-misconduct allegations."

— More from GBH's Saraya Wintersmith: "Two conciliatory actions did little to calm the atmosphere. Dorchester councilor Frank Baker withdrew his motion to subpoena Boston Police records related to two investigations into alleged sexual assaults in 2005 and 2007 by Arroyo, and Jamaica Plain councilor Kendra Lara withdrew her counter request for police records related to Baker's guilty plea in a 1993 case of marijuana possession with intent to distribute."

— "Arroyo, Hayden blast each other on debate stage over Suffolk DA controversy," by Sean Philip Cotter, Boston Herald: "In a debate Wednesday night held by the Communities of Color organization, moderator Jon Keller of WBZ quickly instigated: 'Is your opponent's character an issue in the race?' Both Arroyo, a Boston City Councilor who's facing scrutiny over old accusations of sexual misconduct, and Hayden, the sitting DA who Arroyo's supporters have accused of illegally leaking the protected records, answered with a definitive 'Yes.'"

YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

— FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: EMILY's List, which works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights, is endorsing 10 state legislative candidates: state Sen. Becca Rausch; state Reps. Sarah Peake, Tram Nguyen and Erika Uyterhoeven; Senate hopefuls Eunice Zeigler, Robyn Kennedy and Sydney Levin-Epstein and representative hopefuls Estela Reyes, Shirley Arriaga and Judith Garcia.

— Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll is rolling out another slate of endorsers in her bid for lieutenant governor. They include state Reps. Michelle Ciccolo, Tram Nguyen and John Lawn; Norfolk County Treasurer Michael Bellotti and Suffolk County Register of Deeds Steve Murphy.

— Attorney General Maura Healey has endorsed Aaron Saunders for 7th Hampden state representative, per his campaign.

— CASH DASH: New month, new campaign finance reports to sift through. Andrea Campbell will report the highest monthly fundraising haul of her attorney general campaign after raking in $443,604 in August, her campaign said.

— Driscoll will also report the highest monthly fundraising total of her campaign after bringing in about $208,000 in August, her campaign said.

Quentin Palfrey (left) and Massachusetts attorney general candidate Andrea Campbell (right)

Quentin Palfrey (left) and Massachusetts attorney general candidate Andrea Campbell (right) speak to reporters in Boston on Aug. 31, 2022. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

— GRUDGE MATCH: So how did Quentin Palfrey come to endorse the candidate he routinely criticized over their policy differences and her refusal to disavow super PAC spending? Because, he said, Campbell's "values and experience and character are really much more important than some of those subtle distinctions on policy issues." And because Shannon Liss-Riordan dumped roughly $5 million of her own money into blanketing the airwaves.

It's "dangerous for our democratic discourse when candidates spend enormous amounts of money flooding the airwaves," Palfrey told reporters yesterday. "And I do think that that has been a distorting element of this race in ways that have probably not been in the service of the people of Massachusetts."

The dig follows an accusation from Liss-Riordan's campaign manager, Jordan Meehan, that Palfrey is trying to "curry favor with political elites" by backing Campbell. Palfrey responded in a statement Wednesday afternoon saying that it's "troubling to see official statements from the Liss-Riordan campaign attacking me personally and questioning my integrity."

The escalating feud threatens to overshadow Palfrey's endorsement of Campbell and the concerns some of his former supporters have over her policy positions, including her stances on charter schools, Medicare for All and safe-injection sites.

Campbell reiterated on Wednesday that she "would never as an attorney general stand in the way of a municipality and residents and local leadership" who want to pursue safe-injection sites — places where people can consume drugs in a supervised setting. She said she wants to have a state-level conversation about how to pay for them and where they would be located. Campbell also said there's "a lot more Massachusetts needs to do in terms of [the] cost, affordability, accessibility [of health care and] ensuring everyone has access to gender-affirming care." But she did not commit to supporting a single-payer system.

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PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES

— "After blistering report from federal inspectors, MBTA has its work cut out for it," by Taylor Dolven, Boston Globe: "Federal transportation officials on Wednesday issued a scathing report about the agency, finding it has too few workers, too little training and maintenance, and weak safeguards, but also offered marching orders for the long-troubled transit system to get back on track and prioritize safety. The Federal Transit Administration analysis, which found focus on long-term projects came at the expense of day-to-day operations and safety, added up to a condemnation of the T's management in recent years and the state's feckless oversight. The FTA ordered the T to staff up, improve communication with front-line workers, and bolster safety checks, among dozens of required actions. … In response to the findings, Governor Charlie Baker will ask the Legislature for $200 million for the T to address the FTA's findings, he said in a statement, and $10 million for a training academy to help with hiring. And the MBTA plans to open a new office called the Quality, Compliance, and Oversight Office, with Katie Choe, the current chief of capital delivery, at the helm."

— "MBTA report: Elizabeth Warren, Ed Markey say it is 'shameful' the MBTA has reached an 'entirely preventable point'," by Chris Van Buskirk, MassLive: "Massachusetts' two U.S. senators decried the state of the MBTA and slammed the Baker administration after federal officials released a critical report on safety at the agency Wednesday morning, saying it is 'shameful' for the first public transportation system in the country to have reached an '"entirely preventable point.'"

— "Here are the 24 findings the FTA made in its scathing report on the T," by Sahar Fatima and Taylor Dolven, Boston Globe.

— "Congressman, Quincy mayor push to reform MBTA in wake of federal report," by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald.

— "Only 25% of Massachusetts bridges in 'good' shape, hundreds deficient, new report shows," by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald.

FROM THE DELEGATION

— "Auchincloss chief of staff stepping down," by Ted Nesi, WPRI: "Massachusetts Congressman Jake Auchincloss's chief of staff is leaving the freshman lawmaker's office amid an ongoing feud with Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. In response to an inquiry from 12 News, an Auchincloss spokesperson confirmed that Tim Hysom is stepping down effective Friday and will be joining a different congressional office. Hysom has served as the Newton Democrat's top aide since he succeeded Joe Kennedy III last year."

FROM THE 413

— "Jynai McDonald challenges state Rep. Bud Williams in Democratic primary for 11th Hampden District seat," by Patrick Johnson, Springfield Republican: "Incumbent state Rep. Bud L. Williams and challenger Jynai McDonald square off in the Sept. 6 Democratic primary for the 11th Hampden District that could decide who represents the district for the next two years. The race pits Williams, a longtime Springfield city councilor-turned-state representative, versus McDonald, a grass-roots community activist who has never held elected office."

— "Four Democratic candidates vie for Western Mass. seat on Governor's Council," by Patrick Johnson, Springfield Republican.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

— "Student loan forgiveness: Rep. Steven Owens says Massachusetts students will not pay $500 in taxes on student debt cancellations," by Tristan Smith, MassLive: "Rep. Steven Owens corrected a Tax Foundation report that included Massachusetts on a list of 12 states that could include discharged student loan debt as taxable income after the Biden administration's decision to offer between $10,000 to $20,000 in student loan debt forgiveness. 'I'm happy to say that the legislature has already exempted forgiven student loans from taxable income and no one should receive that $500 tax bill,' Owens wrote in an email."

MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

— "Republican super PAC drops $4M in New Hampshire Senate primary," by Natalie Allison, POLITICO: "National Republicans appear to be dropping millions of dollars in New Hampshire's Senate primary, a sign that the party is intervening in a race to prevent a far-right candidate from becoming the nominee. … Two people with knowledge of the ad buy told POLITICO that the spending is in support of Chuck Morse, the New Hampshire state Senate president who is running a distant second in public polling behind Don Bolduc, an Army brigadier general who is further to the right and has closely embraced former President Donald Trump's false stolen election conspiracies."

HEARD 'ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Amy Friguletti and Alan Dershowitz.

NEW HORSE RACE ALERT — Hosts Jennifer Smith, Steve Koczela and Lisa Kashinsky recap the allegations roiling the Suffolk DA race and dig into the drama in the attorney general race. CommonWealth's Michael Jonas takes us back to school. Subscribe and listen on iTunes and Sound Cloud.

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