🗳️ Axios AM: Referendum on Trump

Photo: Burning Man, from space | Thursday, September 01, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Wells Fargo   Axios AM By Mike Allen · Sep 01, 2022 🍂 Hello, Thursday. And welcome to September. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,165 words ... 4½ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.     1 big thing: Referendum on Trump Graphic: MSNBC's "Morning Joe"   Top Republicans' biggest private fear — that November's midterms will turn on public opinion about former President Trump, not inflation and crime — is unfolding across the political landscape. Why it matters: Trump is dominating the news, picking Trump-like candidates in primaries — and shaping the views and rhetoric of elected officials, and those hoping to become one. That's why Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is telling people his party is blowing a golden opportunity to win the Senate. It's also why Republicans no longer feel so confident of a landslide in the House. 💭 What we're hearing: The Trump document case is likely to remain in the news for months. I'm told there are lots more investigative threads to pull before an indictment — including interviewing Trump lawyers about what they said about the classified documents he kept. The bottom line: GOP midterm candidates — who want to talk solely about the prices of gas and groceries — now must contend with background music that once again is Trump, Trump, Trump.     2. 🎒 COVID erases decades of school progress Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Reading scores for America's 9-year-olds saw their biggest decrease in 30 years during the first two years of the pandemic — and math scores fell for the first time in the history of a test that goes back to the 1970s. Why it matters: The findings, out today, are the starkest indicator yet of the sheer magnitude of the COVID era's learning setbacks for America's children, AP reports. The results are part of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), also known as the Nation's Report Card. The declines hit all regions of the country and affected students of most races. Students of color saw some of the steepest decreases. 🔮 What's next: "The test scores reflect more than a pandemic problem, with experts saying it could take a generation for some scores to rebound," The Wall Street Journal notes (subscription). "Some say current achievement levels could weigh on economic output in years to come."     3. 🌐 The new axis: China, Russia, Iran Chinese and Russian forces during 2018 war games in Russia. Photo: Russian Presidency via Getty Images   America's biggest adversaries — China, Russia and Iran — are increasingly teaming up in ways that could undermine the U.S. Russian and Chinese forces began war games today in Russia's far east. Russia has received an initial batch of drones from Iran to deploy on the battlefield in Ukraine. Those are just the latest examples of America's top geopolitical foes finding common cause, Axios World editor Dave Lawler reports. Referring to relations with countries like Iran and Russia, a Chinese diplomat tells Axios it's "only natural" that countries facing sanctions and pressure from the U.S. would move closer together. Between the lines: The relationships among these three countries are defined not by deep bonds or shared values, but by specific interests and the mutual desire to challenge Washington. "A marriage of convenience can be much more durable than a romantic relationship," said Alexander Gabuev, an expert on Russia-China relations at the Carnegie Endowment. China-Russia trade has increased in value by around 30% this year — helping ease the blow of Western sanctions. Share this story.     A message from Wells Fargo A $2 billion inclusive communities and climate bond     Wells Fargo engaged 24 diverse broker-dealers to issue its second sustainability bond supporting housing affordability, economic opportunity, renewable energy and clean transportation. Why it's important: This promotes the transition to an equitable, low-carbon future. Learn more     4. 📊 New data: Employers are last bastions of trust Data: Edelman Trust Barometer. Chart: Jared Whalen/Axios Most people trust their employers, despite falling confidence in government and media, the Edelman Trust Barometer finds in a new special report on "Trust in the Workplace" shared first with Axios. Why it matters: That creates both an opportunity and an obligation for employers. They need to communicate clearly and consistently with workers, who are ready to listen. After friends and family, the workplace has become the most important source of community — ahead of neighbors and religious organizations, Edelman found. The report — which surveyed 7,000 employees in seven countries this summer — found a "trust crash" for governments, while employers remain a "bulwark of stability." Context: The Trust Barometer found last year that businesses had become the most trusted institution in the world. They assumed that role midway through the pandemic, as governments botched their responses. Go deeper: Read the report.     5. 🍟 New labor playbook Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios   Both chambers of the California legislature this week passed a bill that could raise wages for fast food workers to as high as $22 per hour — and has the potential to revitalize the U.S. labor movement, Emily Peck writes for Axios Markets. Business groups are mounting fierce opposition. Why it matters: The Fast Food Accountability and Standards Recovery Act signals a re-emergence of "sectoral bargaining," a once-popular and powerful union tactic, in which workers from different companies in the same industry negotiate for pay together. The strategy, still used in a few corners in the U.S., including for TV writers, is re-emerging in Europe, Australia and New Zealand. The key difference in the new bill is that government also gets a seat at the negotiating table. State of play: If signed by Democratic governor Gavin Newsom — and industry is pushing him not to — the legislation could become a model for other states. Activists already are looking to replicate it in New York and Illinois, The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription). Nail salon workers in New York are seeking similar legislation. The other side: Singling out the fast food sector is "totally arbitrary," Matt Haller, president of trade group International Franchise Association (IFA), tells Axios. IFA argues that the bill could have devastating consequences for individual franchise owners — effectively small business owners. Share this story.     6. First look: Yellen plans monthlong victory tour Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks in July. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will deliver a major economic speech in Detroit next week as part of a monthlong push to sell President Biden's legislative achievements before the midterms, Axios' Hans Nichols reports. Why it matters: It's part of the administration's attempt to seize on a spate of positive headlines, and make a broader intellectual argument for Biden's efforts to re-engineer large sections of the economy. Yellen will credit last year's $1.9 trillion COVID rescue plan, which Republicans blame for stoking inflation, for fueling the recovery. She will focus on a trio of legislative accomplishments — with trillions in collective new spending for infrastructure, semiconductors and climate change — as critical to improving productivity. 🖼️ The big picture: The post-COVID economy is sending contradictory messages. On the positive side is the persistent strength of the job market — a 3.5% unemployment rate, and an economy that added 528,000 jobs in July. Moving in the opposite direction is GDP: A 0.9% contraction in the second quarter has ignited a raging debate over whether the U.S. economy is in a recession. Keep reading.     7. 😱 What we agree on A new Quinnipiac Poll shows a rare bipartisan consensus, Axios' Josh Kraushaar notes: Both parties think "the nation's democracy is in danger of collapse." 69% of Democrats agree ... and 69% of Republicans agree.     8. 🛰️ Parting shot: Burning Man, as seen from space Photo: Maxar Technologies via Reuters This satellite photo shows the precisely engineered Burning Man encampment in Black Rock Desert, Nev., as the festival returns after a two-year COVID hiatus. Organizers expect to draw 80,000+ people over the festival's nine days, Nevada Public Radio reports.     A message from Wells Fargo $50 million invested in 13 Black-owned banks     Wells Fargo honors its commitment to make meaningful capital investments in Black-owned banks, fulfilling a $50 million pledge to minority depository institutions. Why it's important: This helps traditionally underserved communities gain access to banking services. Learn more.   📬 Invite your friends to sign up to get their daily essentials — Axios AM, PM and Finish Line. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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