| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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Six weeks out from Election Day, it's the question hanging over every conversation about the midterms: Are the polls going to be wrong — again? | Stephen Maturen/Getty Images | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THIS WEEK: Monday: Rosh Hashanah is observed. … Tuesday: NASA will (again) try to launch Artemis I. The Conference Board publishes the September consumer confidence index. VP KAMALA HARRIS is in Japan for state funeral of former PM SHINZO ABE. … Wednesday: House Jan. 6 committee holds a hearing at 1 p.m. President JOE BIDEN hosts the first ever U.S.-Pacific Island Country Summit. CBC's 51st annual Legislative Conference kicks off. … Friday: House holds its final votes before Election Day. GREG ABBOTT and BETO O'ROURKE meet for the sole debate of the Texas gubernatorial campaign. … Saturday: DONALD TRUMP rallies in Macomb County, Mich. DISPATCH FROM ROME — "Italy is on course to elect its most right-wing government since World War II, after projections suggested a coalition led by GIORGIA MELONI is set to take power." More from Hannah Roberts and Giorgio Leali POLL POSITION — In 2016, polling was basically a debacle. In 2018, it seemed the course had been corrected. Then came 2020 — and polling that was, in some cases, off even more substantially than in 2016. Six weeks out from Election Day, it's the question hanging over every conversation about the midterms: Are the polls going to be wrong — again? Over the last six years, political polling has struggled to consistently get it right, from failing to capture Trump's win in 2016 to understating the 2018 "Blue Wave" to overestimating Biden's share of the votes in 2020 in some key states. "Pollsters know they have a problem," Steve Shepard writes in a must-read this morning. "But they aren't sure they've fixed it in time for the November election." Throughout the country, polls show Democratic candidates running way ahead of expectations. And that's "left some wondering whether the rosy results are setting the stage for another potential polling failure that dashes Democratic hopes of retaining control of Congress — and vindicates the GOP's assertion that the polls are unfairly biased against them," Steve writes. After 2016, pollsters changed their samples to include more voters without college degrees — people more likely to be Trump backers. After 2020, pollsters largely agreed that they once again missed Trump voters who refused to participate in surveys. Is 2022 another election with Trump as the main character? Well, polling experts are split into two main camps: 1. "Some pollsters are hoping that since Trump isn't running in the midterms, the problems of underestimating Republicans' vote share will disappear with him." 2. "Others worry that Trump's ongoing dominance of the news cycle — from the FBI seizure of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago to litigation against his businesses in New York — effectively is making him the central political figure going into Election Day." Steve talks with top pollsters and explains how they've adapted to 2022 — whether contacting voters via text and online interviews (Marist), "separat[ing] those who say they are undecided from those who refuse to answer" (Quinnipiac) or conducting "surveys that measure each candidate's level of support without pitting them against one another" (Monmouth). But even those changes may not be enough to avert another 2020-style miss. "I'm confident that [the changes are] the right things," says Democratic pollster CELINDA LAKE. But "I'm not confident that they're sufficient." Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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| For perhaps the first time in his presidency, Biden has a positive economic story to tell. Wages are up. Gas prices are down. And after months of setbacks, the White House finally clinched legislation boosting domestic manufacturing, tackling climate change and lowering prescription drug prices. But just as Democrats rush to capitalize on those wins ahead of the midterms, new economic storm clouds are forming that threaten to erase those hard-fought gains, Adam Cancryn reports this morning. Inflation remains stubbornly high. Food and housing prices have yet to cool off. Fears of a global recession are weighing on the stock market. "Those crosscurrents have left the Biden administration in a weird place — eager to promote their accomplishments, but wary of celebrating an economy that's left many Americans behind," Adam told Eugene on Sunday night. "In the White House, Biden advisers have counseled Democrats to play up the progress the U.S. has made since the pandemic wrecked the economy. "Yet even as Biden tries to sell the country on a feel-good economic recovery, the question remains: Will voters feel those benefits in time to give Democrats credit in November? Or will the underlying uncertainty end up working against the party's all-out bid to defy the odds and keep control of Congress?" BIG PICTURE RED WAVE BECOMES A RIPPLE — The latest CBS polling and projections revise predicted House Republican gains downward again, now forecasting 223 GOP seats next year to 212 Democratic — a narrow majority with implications for KEVIN McCARTHY's prospects as leader. One nugget: "Two-thirds of voters feel their rights and freedoms are very much at stake in this election — more so even than say their financial well being is." CRIME PAYS — Republicans are increasingly pushing crime rates as a key midterm issue across the country, detailing disturbing incidents in ads and speeches, WaPo's Annie Linskey and Colby Itkowitz report . It's an opportunity for the GOP to play offense again after being on defense over abortion for much of the summer — and to move beyond just economic messaging. Some Democrats are pushing back, saying the messaging plays into racial stereotypes and foments division. But others worry about the efficacy of the attacks, and are trying to emphasize their own law-and-order credentials in response. Related Read: "Biden's mixed record forces some Dems into odd balancing act", per the AP BATTLE FOR THE SENATE FRANKEN SPEAKS — After a former campaign staffer accused Iowa Democratic nominee MIKE FRANKEN of sexual misconduct — which did not result in any charges — Franken tells Burgess Everett that it never happened. And he's accusing Republicans of weaponizing what he calls a false allegation: The first reporting on the matter was written up by a GOP consultant. The unpredictable Franken won't commit to supporting CHUCK SCHUMER for majority leader, and casts himself as an independent mind. Despite the spurt of attention to his race, he's still a longshot against Republican Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY: "The DSCC is not involved in this race," a spokesperson for the group says, point blank. KEYSTONE STATE LATEST — Is Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. JOHN FETTERMAN's focus on campaigning in rural reaches of the state leading him to neglect Black voters in big cities? The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Jon Moss reports that some activists and officials are worried the Democratic Senate nominee isn't doing enough. Fetterman's campaign says it's engaging Black voters in many ways, but some Dems warn he could be over-correcting to try to shore up the party's losses among white working-class voters. — Modern bromance: Fetterman and AG JOSH SHAPIRO have very different styles. But as they run for Senate and governor, the two Democrats are building on a long working relationship and mutual affection, "seemingly strategizing to complement each other throughout the state," the Daily Beast's Ursula Perano reports. — Top-ed: "Tucker Carlson wants to talk about my tattoos. So let's talk about them," by Fetterman for NBC FOLLOWING THE MONEY — In Ohio, Democrats' monthslong advantage on the airwaves can be traced to the disparity between the two nominees' funding bases: Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN pulled in small-dollar donations nationwide, while Republican J.D. VANCE has relied on big donors and the Senate Leadership Fund, the Plain Dealer's Andrew Tobias reports . "Even though Vance and his allies are spending almost three times as much as Ryan, they're only getting about 20% more airtime. That's largely because candidates, under federal law, get much better prices compared to outside PACs."
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Francisco started at Amazon in a fulfillment center and is now a trained technician, thanks to Amazon's Mechatronics and Robotics Apprenticeship. Tens of thousands of hourly employees use Amazon's free skills-training programs to get higher-paying jobs at the company. Learn more. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE UP FOR DEBATE — "Slotkin, Barrett clash on economy, abortion in first TV debate," by The Detroit News' Melissa Nann Burke BATTLE FOR THE STATES WHERE ABORTION IS PLAYING — Arizona's new near-total abortion ban continued to reverberate across the state's political landscape Sunday, the Arizona Republic reports in a roundup of the latest reactions. WHERE ABORTION ISN'T PLAYING — Kansas was ground zero for the post-Dobbs backlash to abortion restrictions this summer. But Democratic Gov. LAURA KELLY, in a tight reelection campaign, is barely mentioning the issue, NBC's Adam Edelman reports . She's focusing on the economy and education instead. "Experts and Democrats say the effort could be key to the vulnerable incumbent prevailing in the overwhelmingly red state. That's because the path to victory for Kelly … relies almost entirely on her ability to appeal to Republican voters, with whom a prominent pro-abortion rights message wouldn't largely resonate." DOWN BALLOT — The L.A. Times' Laurel Rosenhall has a column looking at the States Project's efforts to flip statehouse seats to Democrats, which has Californians gathering to strategize the likes of Michigan races. "At one time, it might have been unseemly or just strange for activists to try to influence local elections far from home. But that's changed." THE PRE-POST-MORTEM — "Shapiro, Mastriano race could foreshadow 2024 in Pa.," by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's Julian Routh HOT ADS With help from Steve Shepard — Nevada: Congressional Leadership Fund's latest ad against Democratic Rep. DINA TITUS in Las Vegas seeks to link government spending, including the 2021 Covid relief package, to high inflation — a linchpin of GOP attacks this fall.
| | BIDEN'S MONDAY:
9:25 a.m.: The president will leave New Castle, Del., arriving back at the White House at 10:35 a.m.
11:45 a.m.: Biden will welcome the Atlanta Braves in the East Room.
4:15 p.m.: Biden will speak at a White House Competition Council meeting in the State Dining Room, highlighting past actions on competition and previewing more to come.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 1:30 p.m.
HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP is in Japan, where she has already held a bilateral meeting with PM FUMIO KISHIDA at the Akasaka Palace and attended a dinner hosted by him.
THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | THIS WEEK - MILKEN INSTITUTE ASIA SUMMIT : Go inside the 9th annual Milken Institute Asia Summit, taking place from September 28-30, with a special edition of POLITICO's Global Insider newsletter, featuring exclusive coverage and insights from this important gathering. Stay up to speed with daily updates from the summit, which brings together more than 1,200 of the world's most influential leaders from business, government, finance, technology, and academia. Don't miss out, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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Veronika Tkachenko, 7, holds a piece of a rocket that hit her family's house in the recently retaken town of Izium, Ukraine, on Sunday, Sept. 25. | Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS MANCHIN RESPONDS TO CRITICS — As Congress works to both wrap up its duties ahead of an election season recess and to avert a government shutdown later this week, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) is out with a WSJ op-ed responding to critics of his proposal to speed up the permitting process for new energy projects. — Firing to his left: "Contrary to the radical agenda of Sen. BERNIE SANDERS [(I-Vt.)] and his allies, who seem oblivious to the reality of the global and domestic energy challenges we face, the common-sense permitting reforms contained in the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2022 will help cut costs and accelerate the building of the critical energy infrastructure we need. … They stand in the way of major progress on realistic reforms. Instead, they offer a wish list with no chance of passing an evenly divided Senate." — Firing to his right: "Some have said the legislation was crafted without Republican input, or that it would make it harder for fossil fuels to be permitted. They are simply wrong. … Instead, extreme politics are blinding some to the realities of what we must do to keep our energy future secure for generations to come. What else could possibly explain why any Republican would even consider supporting the same position as Sen. Sanders when it comes to energy?" The context: The Senate is expected to vote at 5:30 p.m. Tuesday on the continuing resolution, containing Manchin's bill, that would avoid a shutdown by extending current funding levels until mid-December. Despite all the last-minute drama, our sources in Manchin world are confident it will stay in the CR and pass this week. And one source told Playbook on Sunday night: "Manchin was working the phones this weekend, and he's confident he's locked in several more [Republicans] as a yes." 2023 DREAMING — House Republicans are not actually going to defund the FBI next year if they regain control of the lower chamber, but they're plotting plenty of blowback for the law enforcement agency, Jordain Carney reports this morning . Though the matter risks driving new ideological rifts in the conference, "GOP lawmakers are preparing a buffet of investigations aimed at touching every aspect of the agency's decision-making, even floating a select committee to probe how the bureau handled the recovery of classified documents kept at Donald Trump's Florida estate." THE WHITE HOUSE ROCKET MAN — WaPo's Jada Yuan gives the Style section treatment to ELTON JOHN's White House concert Friday, highlighting the event's meaning for the fight against HIV/AIDS. The one song that John knew he had to sing was "Crocodile Rock," which has a personal history with the Bidens: The president and his sons used to sing it together in the car, and Biden sang it to an unconscious BEAU when he was dying in the hospital. As for receiving the National Humanities Medal, husband DAVID FURNISH says: "It's very rare to see Elton rendered speechless on anything, and when that came out, he was completely gobsmacked." TOP-ED — Second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF reflects on Rosh Hashanah in USA Today: "As we look forward to the new year, we must continue working toward building an inclusive society for all, and commit ourselves to combating antisemitism and hatred wherever it exists." MORE POLITICS CLASH OF THE TITANS — Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS' stunt to send migrants to Martha's Vineyard privately rankled Abbott's team, which was given no warning and watched as the spotlight shifted to Tallahassee on an issue Abbott has been leading for months, NYT's Michael Bender and David Goodman report . "Mr. DeSantis grabbed the attention of right-wing America, using Mr. Abbott's tactic, on Mr. Abbott's turf, to bigger and more dramatic effect," they write — one of many examples of "interstate call and response" between Florida and Texas. And it epitomized "DeSantis's instinct for political theater" that has elevated him to the party's top national tier. Telling anecdote: "In Florida, Mr. DeSantis mused to donors last year about Mr. Abbott's good political fortune to share 1,254 miles of border with Mexico and complained that he didn't have the same to use as a backdrop." MORE MIGRANT FLIGHT FALLOUT — WaPo's Beth Reinhard, Maria Sacchetti and Molly Hennessy-Fiske talked to migrants flown to Martha's Vineyard and dug through documents to pull together what we know about the episode, including details on the mysterious recruiter "Perla." It was apparently "a carefully orchestrated, taxpayer-funded operation with little apparent concern for the interests of the migrants caught in the middle," they write. "Florida officials began researching Texas's migrant situation weeks before the flights, and a contractor with ties to the DeSantis administration later handled the efforts. Some migrants, meanwhile, say they were misled into signing documents after being lured into the trip with food and hotel stays." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH BACK AT IT AGAIN — On Wednesday, the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection will be back with a hearing at 1 p.m. Details are scarce, but Chair BENNIE THOMPSON (D-Miss.) told the NYT last week that the committee has "substantial footage of what occurred that we haven't used; we've had significant witness testimony that we haven't used. … This is an opportunity to use some of that material." On Sunday night on CBS' "60 Minutes," former Rep. DENVER RIGGLEMAN (R-Va.) spoke about his stint as a senior staffer on the panel — the subject of his new book, "Breach," which has miffed some members of the committee. One especially notable moment: He said that on Jan. 6, 2021, the White House switchboard connected a call to a phone belonging to one of the participants in the Capitol riot. "I only know one end of that call. I don't know the White House end, which I believe is more important," Riggleman said. "Even if it's a short call, and it's a connected call, who is actually making that phone call?" Also notable is the committee's statement to "60 Minutes": "Mr. Riggleman had limited knowledge of the committee's investigation. He departed … prior to … our most important investigative work. … The committee has run down all the leads … that arose from his work."
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"The door is always open for growth and opportunities," said Francisco, who started in an Amazon fulfillment center and is now a trained robotics technician. Read more about the free career growth opportunities Amazon offers. Sponsored by Amazon   | | | JUDICIARY SQUARE JUDGE FOR YOURSELF — Biden's pace of getting judges confirmed has moved even faster than the first couple of years of Trump's presidency — but Trump's second-half wave means Democrats still have catching up to do, NBC's Sahil Kapur reports. That could become more difficult if Republicans retake the Senate, potentially forcing Biden to nominate judges more amenable to the GOP. Meanwhile, Senate Judiciary Chair DICK DURBIN (D-Ill.) tells Kapur he'll preserve the "blue slip" tradition for home-state senators if he remains atop the committee. AMERICA AND THE WORLD AGAINST THE GRAIN — The U.S. is investigating Smartmatic, the voting machine company that's become the subject of election fraud conspiracy theories from the right — but not over its actions stateside, Semafor's Ben Smith and Shelby Talcott report. Instead, a probe that began years ago is heating up into the company's business practices in the Philippines in 2016. BLINKEN TALKIN' — Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN warned that there may be nobody in Russia who could tell President VLADIMIR PUTIN no if he wants to use nuclear weapons, in an interview that aired Sunday on CBS' "60 Minutes." More from the interview on Taiwan … on his late father as a role model ABORTION FALLOUT REALITY CHECK — A year after Abbott said Texas would work to end rapes — part of his defense of an abortion law that forewent rape exemptions — advocates on the ground say rapes are nearly as common as ever in the state, AP's Paul Weber and Jamie Stengle report from Austin. "More than 14,000 rape crimes have been reported in Texas since the law took effect last year, according to data from the Texas Department of Public Safety. That was slightly down from the year before and consistent with a decline in other violent crime figures across the state." WAR IN UKRAINE THE LATEST AID — Ukraine has now received the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System from the U.S. for the first time, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said Sunday, per Reuters. "We absolutely need the United States to show leadership and give Ukraine the air defense systems. I want to thank President Biden for a positive decision that has been already made," he said. "But believe me, it's not even nearly enough to cover the civilian infrastructure, schools, hospitals, universities, homes of Ukrainians." JUST POSTED — "13 dead, 21 wounded in school shooting in Russia" per AP BEYOND THE BELTWAY STORM CHASING — As northern Florida braces for Tropical Storm Ian to turn into a hurricane and strike the area this week, DeSantis activated the National Guard on Sunday in preparation. More from NBC Miami CARIBBEAN CATASTROPHE — "A Week After Fiona, Just Over Half of Puerto Rico Has Power," Bloomberg THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — Two years into Oregon's boundary-pushing move to decriminalize hard drugs, the state is struggling to turn experiment into success, AP's Andrew Selsky reports from Salem. More than $300 million has gone to drug treatment or safer use facilities. But "Oregon still has among the highest addiction rates in the country. Fatal overdoses have increased almost 20% over the previous year, with over a thousand dead. Over half of addiction treatment programs in the state lack capacity to meet demand because they don't have enough staffing and funding." Now it's an issue in the state's tight gubernatorial race.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Brian Schatz may shave his head to help fundraise for Cheri Beasley, at Cory Booker's suggestion. But Chris Murphy doesn't seem so excited at the prospect. And even Schatz might be looking for a way out. Tony Gonzales is filing legislation to prevent the Spurs from leaving San Antonio. Ron Klain is on the first episode of Molly Jong-Fast's new podcast, out today. IN MEMORIAM — "Jim Florio, former governor of New Jersey, dies at 85," by the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein: "James J. Florio, a respected former Governor of New Jersey and an eight-term congressman who courageously tackled tough issues, sometimes to his political detriment, died tonight. … Florio has been a fixture in New Jersey politics since 1969, when he won a seat in the New Jersey State Assembly. He spent fifteen years as a congressman from South Jersey and was governor from 1990 to 1994." OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the Kennedy Center's National Symphony Orchestra opening gala Saturday night: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra, Steve and Amy Ricchetti, Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Calif.), national climate adviser Ali Zaidi, John McCarthy, Liz Johnson, Italian Ambassador Mariangela Zappia, Senay Bulbul, Orla Keane, Nina Totenberg, Suzanne Lynch, Imelda Flattery, David Rubenstein, Deborah Rutter and Tom Mims. TRANSITION — John Partin is now a professional staff member for the Senate Banking GOP. He previously was senior policy adviser to Rep. William Timmons (R-S.C.). ENGAGED — Zack Laven, deputy chief of staff to Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.), and Michelle Shevin-Coetzee, military legislative assistant to Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), got engaged over the weekend in Charlottesville, Va., at their favorite winery. WEEKEND WEDDING — Joe Paulsen, head of business and strategy for Higher Ground Productions, and Samantha Tubman, chief of staff for the Los Angeles Lakers, got married this weekend at Hummingbird Nest Ranch in Simi Valley, Calif. Both served in all eight years of the Obama administration, and Barack Obama toasted the couple (and humorously took some credit). Jonathan Capehart also gave a tribute. SPOTTED: Bill Murray, Reggie Love, Sam Kass, Cody Keenan and Kristen Bartoloni, Peter Selfridge, Melissa Winter, Alan Fitts, Brendan Johannsen, Mackenzie Smith, Blaine Boyd and Ferial Govashiri. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jenny Neuscheler, clerk for the House Appropriations Military Construction-VA Subcommittee, and Travis Neuscheler, chief financial officer and chief compliance officer at Northlane Capital Partners, welcomed Charles Michael Neuscheler on Friday night. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) … Beto O'Rourke … WaPo's Dave Weigel and Kathleen Parker … Evan Hollander of the House Democratic Policy and Communications Committee … Robert Kagan … POLITICO's Casey Miles … Steward Health Care's Josie Martin … former Rep. Frank Guinta (R-N.H.) … Bill Scher … Missy Edwards of Missy Edwards Strategies … Jon Rosborough … Tom Gannon of H&R Block … Mark Isakowitz of Google … photographer Stephen Voss … Jeff Eshelman of IPAA … Doug Sosnik … Greg Lorjuste … Sam Drzymala … John Fitzpatrick … Dayne Cutrell … Brennan Georgianni of the American Cleaning Institute … former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman … former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer … Max Schechter … Erin Cathleen Conaton … Mason Devers … Charlie Aidinoff Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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