Monday, August 15, 2022

The teacher shortage problem is bad. Really bad.

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Aug 15, 2022 View in browser
 
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By Myah Ward

With help from David Siders

A group of young students sitting in a classroom.

A crowded classroom of students in New York City. | Michael Loccisano/Getty Images

CLASSROOM CRISIS — As kids across the country gear up to head back to school in the coming weeks, they're about to confront one big problem: There aren't enough teachers. Nowhere close to enough. Schools are facing a shortage of 300,000 teachers and staff across the U.S., according to the National Education Association, the country's largest teachers union.

State and local leaders are scrambling to find creative ways to address the problem . In Florida, where Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has said teaching requirements are "too rigid," the state is issuing temporary teaching certificates to veterans. Arizona is no longer requiring bachelor's degrees for teachers. In one South Carolina county, new teachers are being offered $10,000 signing bonuses. In rural Texas, some districts will only send kids to school for four days a week.

To get a grasp on how serious and widespread this problem really is, Nightly talked with Christopher Morphew , dean of the Johns Hopkins University School of Education. This conversation has been edited.

What's driving the shortage? 

First and foremost, it's a pipeline issue, and this is part of the reason that there's not going to be a solution that we can come up with overnight. We've seen teacher ed enrollments dip nationally over the last 10 years, a 35 percent decline . There are a couple of states that have grown their teacher ed population, but around 45-plus have seen teacher enrollment drops, with some states seeing upward of 70 percent drops. It's been a long time coming.

Then the question is, of course, why aren't people enrolling in teacher ed programs? I think that's a recognition on the part of students who might otherwise be interested in teacher ed, that salaries aren't great, that working conditions aren't great, that there are some real barriers to entry in staying in the profession. Schools themselves have become battlegrounds in some ways for politics. The profession has become more challenging, and as a result, less desirable to potential candidates.

How did the pandemic add to this problem? 

Oh, it didn't help. When you take an impossible job and make it even harder, I don't think it's a surprise that some people think to themselves, "Maybe I would rather be doing something else."

Like any professional field, there were people teaching who had other interests and other skill sets and dreams. I think the pandemic forced their hands — gave them a chance to think about the opportunity, to think about pursuing those dreams.

I think teachers across the country are sort of reassessing — in an era where they were asked to do even more — whether this was a job for them, or if they would rather be doing something different. So if they were near retirement, or if they were lucky enough to be part of a two-income household or if they had other skill sets, I think the pandemic was a catalyst for them exploring other opportunities as a result.

How bad is this? 

It depends on where you are, but, I think, really bad.

Someone just forwarded me a press release from Baltimore city here in Maryland, providing some background — telling stakeholders and parents what to expect. Does this mean we won't have enough teachers at school on the first day? Why will some schools not have enough teachers? I think it's going to be pretty bad in some of the most challenging areas to teach where they've historically had a harder time attracting new candidates, and where attrition rates are higher — that means cities and that also means in rural areas. Those are going to be the two ends of the curve here.

But this is just one piece of this. I was talking to a district official in another city a couple of days ago, and I was asking about their vacancies and she said, "Well, we've got the number down to under 30." And I said, "Oh, that's great." This was a fairly large district. And then she said, "yes, but the fact of the matter is we've seen teachers teaching outside their areas of certification. We've seen that number increase from a couple of dozen, three or four years ago, to over 200 this year."

So there's the shortage, which is perhaps the most acute problem, but the chronic problem is teachers who are teaching outside the area where they're certified to teach.

How do you fix this underlying problem? 

There's a supply-side piece to this, and I think there's probably a demand-side piece to this. On the supply side, what we have now is a number of significant barriers to entering a profession that is very challenging. We have to be thinking about: How do we make this job as attractive as possible to high-ability people? That requires looking at financial barriers to entry. Can we reasonably expect someone to take out $50,000 in loans for a job that pays $40,000? Can we reasonably expect somebody to take on this job who has not been trained in mental health, when we know that some significant percentage of their students are going to require mental health support, and their school will very likely not have a nurse, a counselor or a school psychologist? So thinking about the job and asking ourselves the hard question, which is, why would someone of high ability take this job? The answer can't be what we've always fallen back on, which is: They'll do it for the kids. That's not working anymore.

On the demand side, we need to be thinking about issues related to the politicization of the field. We need to think about work conditions. We need to think about ways where we can enhance demand for this position. School districts have a role here. State policymakers have a role here. Schools of education, absolutely, have a role to think more creatively about the kinds of programs we're offering and the preparation we're providing teacher ed candidates.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard.

 

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What'd I Miss?

— Giuliani now a target of Atlanta-area Trump probe, attorney says: Atlanta-area prosecutors informed Rudy Giuliani that he is now a target of the investigation of Donald Trump's attempt to overturn the 2020 election in Georgia, Giuliani attorney Robert Costello confirmed today. The former New York mayor had been slated to appear before the grand jury this week and it's unclear whether that appearance will proceed. But the change in designation, which was communicated to Giuliani's attorneys by special prosecutor Nathan Wade, Costello said, suggests the DA is strongly considering bringing charges against Giuliani for his involvement in the effort.

— Justice Department subpoenas former Trump White House lawyer Eric Herschmann: A federal grand jury investigating the Jan. 6 attack has subpoenaed Trump White House lawyer Eric Herschmann for documents and testimony , according to a person familiar with the matter. Herschmann represented Trump in the former president's first impeachment trial and later joined the White House as a senior adviser. He did not work in the White House counsel's office, but did provide Trump with legal advice. Because of that responsibility, there will likely be litigation over the scope of the subpoena and over how executive and attorney-client privileges may limit Herschmann's ability to comply.

— LA district attorney recall fails to qualify for ballot: Los Angeles will not vote on recalling progressive District Attorney George Gascón , averting a second bruising fight over criminal justice reform in a major California city this year. Opponents of Gascón fell about 50,000 valid signatures short of what they needed to trigger a vote. Despite falling short, the recall effort reflected a fraught moment for the criminal justice reform movement that catapulted Gascón into office after 2020's summer of racial reckoning. Democratic officials rallied behind Gascón as he vowed to implement a new vision. But rising anxiety about public safety has since shifted the political landscape, fueling the June recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, Gascón's successor and ally.

— GOP slashes ads in key Senate battlegrounds: As midterm election campaigns heat up in the Senate's top battlegrounds, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is canceling millions of dollars of ad spending , sending GOP campaigns and operatives into a panic and upending the committee's initial spending plan. The cuts — totaling roughly $13.5 million since Aug. 1 — come as the Republicans' Senate campaign committee is being forced to "stretch every dollar we can," said a person familiar with the NRSC's deliberations. Republican nominees in critical states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — places the GOP must defend this fall — have failed to raise enough money to get on air themselves, requiring the NRSC to make cuts elsewhere to accommodate.

AROUND THE WORLD

William Ruto speaking at a rally in Thika, Kenya earlier this month.

William Ruto speaking at a rally in Thika, Kenya earlier this month. | Ed Ram/Getty Images

ELECTION DAY — Kenyans went to the polls to decide their next president today. Cara Anna at the Associated Press reports: "In a chaotic announcement that could foreshadow a court challenge, Kenya's electoral commission chairman today declared Deputy President William Ruto the winner of the country's close presidential race over five-time contender Raila Odinga.

"The outcome was a triumph for a candidate who shook up the East African nation's politics by appealing to struggling Kenyans' economic concerns instead of their ethnic allegiances. Ruto received about 50.5% of the vote to nearly 49% for Odinga in last Tuesday's balloting, the chairman said. But just before the declaration, four of the seven electoral commissioners told reporters they could not support the "opaque nature" of the final steps, without giving details.

"Despite the last-minute chaos, the electoral commission improved its transparency in this election, practically inviting Kenyans to do the tallying themselves by posting online the more than 46,000 results forms from around the country. Tallies published by media organizations and others that took up the challenge echoed today's results.

"Odinga's campaign has seven days to file a challenge in court, extending the uncertainty in Kenya, a country of 56 million people that is seen as crucial to regional stability. The Supreme Court will have 14 days to rule."

 

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Nightly Number

22.7 percent

The annual inflation rate in Estonia right now, making the Baltic nation Europe's inflation hotspot . The sharply higher-than-average inflation trend in Estonia can be ascribed to a slew of factors including a scarcity driven surge in electricity prices and an exceptionally strong rebound of the Estonian economy after the pandemic, leading to labor shortages and higher wages. Still, a sharp reduction in purchasing power is worrying for many Estonian households.

Parting Words

A photo of a Bernie Sanders rally.

Bernie Sanders at a rally in Queens, New York in 2019. | Kena Betancur/Getty Images

FIRST IN NIGHTLY — President Joe Biden's recent run of good news isn't stopping the left from agitating for an alternative in 2024, David Siders emails Nightly.

After the progressive group RootsAction.org last month announced that it will launch a public pressure campaign to stop his renomination, another left-wing outfit, Progressive Democrats of America, is publicly applauding RootsAction for its "brave position."

In a statement shared first with Nightly, PDA's executive director, Alan Minsky, doesn't go as far as RootsAction, saying the group will take up the issue of a presidential endorsement in the fall. But it isn't hard to read between the lines.

"Indeed, you can rest assured that if a race develops for the Democratic presidential nomination — with or without the participation of President Biden — there will be a strong progressive challenger in the field," Minsky said in a statement.

He added, "There are millions of us who still love the sound of President [Bernie] Sanders."

Sanders, the progressive senator from Vermont, has said he will support Biden should the president run again. Biden has had a positive few weeks, with falling gas prices, cooling inflation and the passage of a major tax, health care and climate change bill . His job approval rating, while still dismal, has inched up.

But the left still has other ideas.

At PDA, Minsky said, "We believe the country, and our democracy, will remain in crisis so long as neo-liberalism remains the dominant political order. We've lived with forty years of neo-liberal rule and we see the catastrophic results all around us."

And if not Biden, who?

Said Minsky: From PDA's perspective, "the ball is in Bernie's court."

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