Axios World: Kabul after collapse

Plus: Kenya's post-election scuffle | Monday, August 15, 2022

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Babbel   Axios World By Dave Lawler · Aug 15, 2022 Welcome back to Axios World. Taliban fighters paraded through Kabul today to mark the one-year anniversary of taking the city. Tonight's edition (1,980 words, 7½ minutes) focuses almost entirely on Afghanistan. We'll also check in on Kenya's election results. Subscribe and tell a friend     1 big thing: Former U.S. envoy on leaving Afghanistan to the Taliban Khalilzad alongside then-Taliban political leader Abdul Ghani Baradar at the signing of the Doha Accords in 2020. Photo: Giuseppe Cacace/AFP via Getty Images   Zalmay Khalilzad was tasked by two U.S. presidents with negotiating an orderly U.S. exit from Afghanistan. Instead, one year ago, Kabul collapsed, the U.S. mounted a frantic evacuation, and the Taliban took total control. What he's saying: "It's very unfortunate that we couldn't get a political agreement before the Taliban moved in," Khalilzad tells Axios in a phone interview. Flashback: There was still a glimmer of hope for a power-sharing deal, he argues, until Aug. 15, 2021. The Taliban had agreed to halt its advance outside Kabul and meet a delegation of senior Afghan politicians, including former President Hamid Karzai. But when President Ashraf Ghani fled, Khalilzad says, he left a vacuum. The Taliban initially offered to let the U.S. military secure Kabul temporarily, Khalilzad says. Then-CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie later testified that there was no "formal offer" from the Taliban, and "we did not have the resources to undertake that mission." Instead, Taliban fighters swept into the city. The militant group later formed a government made up entirely of its own hardliners. The U.S. was out, and Khalilzad's mission was over. He left the government last October. The backstory: An Afghan-born veteran diplomat, Khalilzad was named by Donald Trump as special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation in 2018 and retained by President Biden. Both presidents wanted out of Afghanistan. While Khalilzad says he viewed the U.S troop presence as its primary leverage over the Taliban, both presidents saw it as a "burden." Khalilzad says he and others argued internally that Biden should leave troops in Afghanistan until certain conditions were met — in particular, some form of intra-Afghan agreement on the future governance of the country. "I said, 'No, I cannot guarantee that there will be a political settlement, but it will provide us leverage with the Taliban,'" Khalilzad recalls. "The president thought we might never get to an agreement and we might get stuck there." Between the lines: Biden's pessimism was hardly unreasonable, given the lack of progress in intra-Afghan talks prior to the fall of Kabul. Now in power, the Taliban are held hostage by some of its more hardline elements, Khalilzad contends. For example, he says most senior Taliban officials believe girls should be allowed an education, and yet the Taliban government has offered a series of shifting explanations as to why schools can't yet be reopened. "They emphasize unity because they don't want to fight each other, but at the same time there are clear differences inside," Khalilzad says. "That makes it frustrating dealing with them, because ... all factions have to agree before they can give a definitive response." Until the group moves toward a more inclusive government and society, it won't gain broad acceptance domestically or recognition and sanctions relief internationally, Khalilzad argues. That means the U.S. still has leverage in Afghanistan, Khalilzad insists. And now the administration isn't operating on a tight timetable or worried about risks to U.S. troops. "The question is whether there can be a trade-off — what would we do in exchange for what they do." What to watch: Khalilzad says his understanding is that the U.S. has signaled to the Taliban that it would be open to talks if two conditions are met: that American detainee Mark Frerichs be released and that schools be reopened to girls. A State Department spokesperson told Axios those were "two key priorities of ours" and that "a lack of progress will hinder improvement in our relationship with the Taliban."     2. Afghanistan after the withdrawal: An economic calamity Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photo: Ami Vitale/Getty Images   One year after the U.S. withdrew and the Taliban retook control of Afghanistan, the country remains a nation in anguish, Axios' Laurin-Whitney Gottbrath writes. The big picture: The Afghan people have borne the brunt of a collapsed economy, deepening humanitarian crisis and deteriorating human rights situation. In the year since the withdrawal, life for most of the 40 million Afghans has in many ways only gotten worse. As of Aug. 15, 2021, "the Afghanistan we knew was gone and it wasn't going to come back," says Obaidullah Baheer, a lecturer at the American University in Kabul. Per capita income is down to about $375 per year, its lowest level in over a decade. Nearly 20 million people face acute food insecurity. The economy has imploded, in part because prior to 2021, foreign aid accounted for 75% of public spending. Sanctions on the Taliban have led many banks outside of the country "to restrict or block the processing of most transactions involving Afghan bank accounts," according to Human Rights Watch. "The economic withdrawal [in Afghanistan] that followed the military withdrawal was pretty immediate," David Miliband, president of the International Rescue Committee, tells Axios. The U.S. decision to freeze billions of dollars in foreign reserves belonging to Afghanistan's central bank has left the bank incapable of carrying out many of its essential functions, Axios' Felix Salmon reports. Go deeper: Taking from Afghanistan's poor     3. Part II: Hopelessness is not a luxury we can afford Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Daniel Leal/AFP, Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images   Meanwhile, the Taliban promised the world they had changed, especially on human rights. State of play: A year later, the group's promises remain largely unfilled. Schools are still closed to most girls and young women after sixth grade. Women also face several restrictions reminiscent of the crackdown on freedoms they faced during the last time the Taliban ruled. At the same time, Taliban officials have cracked down on the media, and human rights groups have documented arbitrary arrests and summary executions of dissidents. Though the violence has been drastically reduced, deadly attacks and security challenges persist. Outside of Afghanistan, tens of thousands of Afghans have been evacuated and are either piecing together new lives in the U.S. or stuck in limbo in third countries such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, awaiting resettlement. Inside Afghanistan, hopelessness is "not a luxury we can afford," Baheer concludes, recognizing the long road ahead. "I don't even want to admit to myself that I feel hopeless because that is the only thing we have. That is what will keep us going." Go deeper: Afghanistan a year on, in photos     A message from Babbel Start speaking a new language in just 3 weeks     Babbel helps millions of people speak and understand a new language through its scientifically proven teaching method. The deets: The platform offers multiple ways to learn a language through daily lessons, podcasts, games, live online classes and more. Get up to 60% off your subscription.     Bonus: Where in the world? Screenshot via Apple Maps   I think we could all use a vacation, so I've planned a trip to Spain. Can you name all 10 cities? We'll start in the capital (No. 1). Next, we'll head to Basque Country. First, a trip to the Guggenheim in the region's largest city (No. 2), then some fine dining on the Bay of Biscay in this city (No. 3) near the French border that glitters with Michelin stars. The sun (also) rises at our next stop (No. 4), where you can run with the bulls. Then we're off to Catalonia to catch a match at Camp Nou (No. 5). Finally, paella for dinner in the city where it was born (No. 6). Next stop: Andalucía. We'll visit The Alhambra (No. 7), head to the Mediterranean coast to check out Picasso's birth city (No. 8) and dance the flamenco in the Triana district of this major city (No. 9). Before finishing our circuit, let's stop in this small but historic city, a UNESCO World Heritage Site (No. 10). The name may evoke Ohio, but it's firmly in Don Quixote's La Mancha. Bonus: If you've got the time, why not unwind on the beaches of (No. 11). Scroll to the bottom for the answers.     4. Evacuation decisions left to last minute: GOP report Afghans await evacuation at the Kabul airport. Photo: Wakil Kohsar/AFP via Getty Images   The Biden administration left key decisions on how to evacuate civilians from Kabul until the final hours before the city fell to the Taliban, a new report from Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee claims. Why it matters: Biden acknowledged after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal that his administration had not anticipated that Kabul would fall so quickly, but insisted that "we planned for every contingency." The report contends that delays in that planning proved costly. Zoom in: According to the report, the U.S. military was ordered to begin planning for a civilian evacuation operation in April, four days before Biden announced the unconditional withdrawal. Multiple tabletop exercises were held to review the possible scenarios, including one on Aug. 6, the week before Kabul fell, which senior administration officials attended. But one of the generals tasked with planning the evacuation, Brig. Gen. Farrell J. Sullivan, told Army investigators, "There seemed to be a disconnect between what we were seeing on the ground and the urgency [State Department officials] were displaying." As of Aug. 14, the day before the Taliban takeover, the U.S. still hadn't worked with third countries to establish transit hubs where evacuees could be temporarily housed, the report claims. In a lengthy statement to Axios, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson claimed the report was "riddled with inaccurate characterizations, cherry-picked information, and false claims." Read the full story.     5. Biden stumbled in Kabul but bounced back in Ukraine, allies say Taliban celebrate the anniversary of taking Kabul today. Photo: Paula Bronstein/Getty Images   I asked diplomats from two close allies whether the chaotic withdrawal damaged their trust in Biden and whether he had recovered that trust since. What they're saying: "It was a shock, and it will remain a shock. There was also kind of brutality in leaving that way, and in the fall," one diplomat told Axios, describing the decision as "another version of America First." Consultations with coalition partners about the withdrawal had been "more cosmetic than profound," the diplomat added. "We were very surprised, but I don't think we ever thought, 'These people are incompetent,'" the other diplomat said. "I think sometimes they come with a know-it-all approach that leads them to make mistakes." But both said confidence in Biden had grown significantly since the fall of Kabul, particularly due to his handling of Ukraine. "You could see the difference in the approach, in the messaging. It was much more coordinated and it was easier to speak with one voice [as allies]," the first diplomat said. "Definitely we saw an improvement of the U.S. image over the past year, and it definitely starts with Ukraine," the second added. "We see that the U.S. is not withdrawing from the world." Go deeper.     6. Contentious result in Kenya Odinga supporters protested in Nairobi after the results were announced. Photo: Donwilson Odhiambo/Getty Images   William Ruto defeated Raila Odinga by a margin of 50.5% to 48.9% to win Kenya's presidential election, the chair of Kenya's electoral commission announced today. Driving the news: The announcement was contentious. A scuffle broke out ahead of the ceremony, which four members of the electoral commission boycotted. They said the vote-counting process was opaque and they could not associate themselves with the results. In Kisumu, an Odinga stronghold, police have used teargas tonight to disperse protests. The backstory: Ruto is currently serving his second term as deputy to outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, but after a public split with Ruto, Kenyatta endorsed his erstwhile rival Odinga. That set the stage for a combative campaign, with Ruto prevailing in a minor upset. A charismatic populist, Ruto centered his campaign around his humble origins and "hustler" mentality. What to watch: Kenya saw widespread post-election violence in 2007 and 2017. The election itself was peaceful, but it's unclear whether Odinga will challenge the results. He was not seen at today's ceremony, which Ruto attended. More global headlines: Paraguay Vice President Hugo Velázquez Moreno plans to resign after he was included on a U.S. corruption list. The Iranian government denied any involvement in the stabbing of author Salman Rushdie, but placed the blame for the attack on Rushdie and his supporters.     7. Stories we're watching Watching the news in Nairobi, on the eve of Kenya's election. Photo: Ed Ram/Getty Images   Myanmar court sentences Aung San Suu Kyi to 6 more years Putin critic Alexei Navalny says he's in solitary confinement Griner to appeal sentence Fire at Egyptian church kills at least 41 South Korean president pardons Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee More U.S. lawmakers visit Taiwan after Pelosi trip Gerhard Schröder sues German parliament over lost allowance Quoted: "We have sympathies for the fact that the decision can cause reactions with the public, but I am firm that this was the right call. ... It was made clear that the public has disregarded the current recommendation to keep a clear distance to the walrus." — Frank Bakke-Jensen, director-general of fisheries in Finland, on the decision to euthanize a beloved walrus named Freya who spent the summer hanging out on boats in a fjord.     A message from Babbel Get conversational in a new language     Babbel offers bite-sized, 10-minute language lessons developed by over 150 linguists and voiced by native speakers. The impact: Users report being able to have a basic conversation after just three weeks of daily practice using Babbel. For a limited time, get up to 60% off your subscription.   Answers: 1. Madrid; 2. Bibao; 3. San Sebastian; 4. Pamplona; 5. Barcelona; 6. Valencia; 7. Grenada; 8. Malaga; 9. Sevilla; 10. Toledo; 11. Mallorca. Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. 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