Monday, August 15, 2022

♟ One Stock Pick, Two Achievable Price Targets

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"Based on the growth of the global sneaker market, Nike is a stock you'll want to own for the rest of 2022 - and beyond."

Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Bryan Bottarelli

Back on July 19, I posted a Trade Talk Tuesday episode titled "Retail Glut Actually Benefits This Stock."

If you recall, the pick was TJX Companies (NYSE: TJX), based on the premise that major retailers such as Target (NYSE: TGT) and Walmart (NYSE: WMT) - which were overloaded with inventory - would aggressively offload their backlogs for pennies on the dollar, to the benefit of TJX.

At the time of my recommendation, TJX traded for $57.

Since then, it's moved up to $65, good for a 14% gain in just under a month.

Based on the success of this play, I'd like to offer you another pick - one that (I believe) will soon benefit from back-to-school shopping.

That pick is Nike (NYSE: NKE).

If you're a longtime Trade of the Day reader, you know I've been bullish on Nike for quite some time, based on the strength of the company's Jordan Brand.

And as I write today, the shoe market is hotter - and stronger - than ever.

For instance, according to Statista, the sneaker industry grew from $45 billion in 2014 to around $72.2 billion today.

And remember, that growth is coming despite supply chain issues and inflation.

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Going forward, the sneaker industry is expected to hit $101 billion by 2026, 30% above what it's worth today.

This is why Nike is still a buy.

So what's driving the growth at Nike, even in the face of difficult headwinds?

In short... brilliant marketing.

Nike Marketing
 

One of the newest advancements in the world of footwear retailing is the explosion of "sneaker culture," the art of collecting shoes.

By offering only a limited number of shoes in certain colors and designs, Nike has made shoe buying a challenge. Consumers line up to chase after a limited shoe before it sells out.

In fact, Nike has an app called SNKRS that gives customers the "inside scoop" on sneaker releases and drops. So essentially, Nike can sell its shoes before they even hit the shelves.

Like I said... brilliant.

Chart - Nike Performance
 
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YOUR ACTION PLAN

Looking at the chart, I can forecast two clear price targets. The first is a more conservative target of $125. The second is a more speculative target of $140. Both of them could be achievable by the end of this year.

Now, one quick caveat...

The losers of the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act are companies that buy back a lot of their own stock. The bill will implement a 1% tax on buybacks. This will impact Nike, which just announced an $18 billion buyback program. If this acts as a short-term catalyst to push the stock down, then this could be a great opportunity to buy the dip. Either way, based on the growth of the global sneaker market, Nike is a stock you'll want to own for the rest of 2022 - and beyond.

If you want to see how we trade companies like Nike in real time, check out The War Room. Despite the rough economy in 2022, we have a 76% win rate on our trades for the year. And right now, we're guaranteeing members will receive 322 winning trades in their first 12 months.

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MONDAY MARKET MINUTE

  • Retail Revival! With back-to-school shopping in full swing and COVID-19 protocols loosening, now is the perfect time to look at Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN). Tracking.

  • Air Products Boost. BMO Capital analyst John McNulty upgraded Air Products & Chemicals (NYSE: APD) from "Market Perform" to "Outperform" and raised its price target from $283 to $321. The company's risk-reward profile has improved significantly in the past few months as it has demonstrated improved execution, McNulty said.

  • No More Bear Market - for Now. After last week's market strength, the Nasdaq has popped 20% from its mid-June low - which means we're technically out of the bear market. We pinpointed this exact bounce point when we predicted Citigroup's (NYSE:C) earnings could set a bottom - which is exactly what happened.

  • Another Conflict Overseas? There's a real possibility of military escalation between China and Taiwan, which means defense options could be back in play.

 

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