| | | | |  | | By Charlie Mahtesian | With help from Myah Ward
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Rep. Val Demings. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | PIPELINE TO POWER — If everything goes as expected, Rep. Val Demings will emerge tonight as the Democratic Senate nominee in Florida against GOP Sen. Marco Rubio. She's not the only high-profile Black candidate on the Senate ballot today: T.W. Shannon, a former state House Speaker, will compete in Oklahoma's GOP Senate runoff. Shannon, who finished a distant second in the June special election primary and trails GOP Rep. Markwayne Mullin in the polls, is the longer shot to win his party nomination. Together, they're part of one of the biggest and least appreciated stories of the 2022 election — a surge of Black candidates that stands to reshape national politics for years to come. At the House level, 81 Black Republican candidates alone were running in primaries through May , an increase of close to 27 percent over 2020. Counting Demings, there will be at least 11 Black Senate nominees (eight of them Democrats) in November and five Black nominees for governor (all of them Democrats). Depending on how Louisiana votes, it's possible that every Deep South Senate race could feature at least one Black nominee in November. In Georgia and South Carolina, both parties' Senate nominees are African American. "It's extremely significant to have eight Black [Democratic] candidates who made it through the primaries, which is already a huge deal, especially when we've only had a handful of Black senators in history," says Stefanie Brown James, a co-founder and senior adviser with the Collective PAC, which supports progressive Black candidates. "The reverberations will last for decades. It's definitely a huge and significant development." Not all of these candidates are running competitive races. In solidly red environs like Alabama and Arkansas, where the Democratic nominees for Senate and governor are both Black, the candidates have little chance of winning. But elsewhere, others are within striking distance of victory in November, and their wins would immediately establish them as powerful party voices — and near-term presidential prospects or veep short-listers. Demings, a former House impeachment manager who hails from a swing region of Florida, the Interstate 4 corridor, already established herself as a possible running mate for Joe Biden in 2020, when she was vetted by his campaign. An upset victory over Rubio would firmly place her among the party's leading voices and her blueprint in an increasingly red state would be closely followed by Democrats running in similarly difficult terrain. Another candidate who drew mention during Biden's VP search, Stacey Abrams, is currently the Democratic nominee for governor in Georgia. If she knocks off Republican Gov. Brian Kemp in their November rematch, she'll rank as the top elected Democrat in a swing state that will be pivotal to presidential election outcomes for the next generation. Senate control could also hinge on the fate of Black Democratic candidates. A reelection victory by Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock, combined with victories by Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin or Cheri Beasley in North Carolina, could keep the Democrats in power. Wins by Barnes and Beasley would also put Black Democrats in statewide office in key presidential swing states, amplifying their clout within the party, their fundraising and their stature as future prospects for national office. There's another dimension to consider as well. There have only been 11 Black senators in the history of the United States — just two of them women. "We have the potential to double the amount of Black women elected to the Senate in history, in just one year," says Brown James. The effect of the 2022 class of Black candidates could also ripple across the GOP. With a handful of Black Republicans in competitive House races, the number of Black Republicans in the House — currently two — could easily double. On the Senate side, where Tim Scott of South Carolina is the only Black Republican, Scott's performance in November could bolster his 2024 presidential prospects . Another blowout victory by Scott — who ran ahead of Donald Trump's performance in South Carolina in 2016 — will remind his party of his popularity in a key early primary state. Whatever happens in November, whether it's a GOP wipeout or Democrats hold their own, the effects of the current pool of Black candidates are likely to be long-lasting. Nearly all of the marquee names on the ballot — Abrams, Barnes, Beasley, Scott and others — are in their 40s and 50s, leaving plenty of time to climb the ladder. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on Twitter @PoliticoCharlie.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | | — Biden closes in on student loan forgiveness plan and extension of repayment pause: The White House is likely to announce a student loan relief plan as early as Wednesday that would forgive up to $10,000 for some borrowers and further extend the current freeze on loan repayment, according to several people familiar with the plan. The details of the highly anticipated plan remain in flux, those people cautioned. The White House has been considering for months canceling $10,000 for borrowers who make $125,000 or less annually. — Biden administration likely to extend baby formula help for low-income moms: Biden administration officials are considering further steps to avoid a steep drop in infant formula access for low-income Americans as shortages linger in pockets across the country. Administration officials in the coming days are likely to again extend federal flexibilities for low-income moms and infants to access formula through the federal WIC nutrition program, with current waivers set to expire Sept. 30, according to two people, including a Biden administration official. — 2 men guilty of conspiring to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer: A jury today convicted two men of conspiring to kidnap Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in 2020 , in a plot prosecutors described as a rallying cry for a U.S. civil war by anti-government extremists. The jury also found Adam Fox and Barry Croft Jr. guilty of conspiring to obtain a weapon of mass destruction, namely a bomb to blow up a bridge and stymie police if the kidnapping could be pulled off at Whitmer's vacation home. — White House projects record drop in budget deficit: The Biden administration is projecting a record decline in budget deficits this year as federal tax receipts outpace expectations and spending on pandemic aid programs wanes. The budget gap for fiscal 2022 will total an estimated $1 trillion — $1.7 trillion less than the deficit last year and about $400 billion less than officials projected in March, according to the White House's mid-year budget update released today. That would be the lowest annual deficit since 2019, before the pandemic plunged the U.S. into a deep recession and prompted a wave of government spending to cushion the economy. — IRS chief orders security review as GOP targets agency with inflammatory rhetoric: The IRS is reviewing the security at all of its facilities after some Republicans charged that the agency would use a major boost in funding from Congress to target regular Americans, in some cases invoking the threat of agents using firearms. IRS Commissioner Chuck Rettig noted in a message to employees that there have been new threats aimed at the agency and its staff , along with "an abundance of misinformation and false social media postings." The comprehensive security review launched by Rettig will include an examination of how to bolster security and lighting at IRS offices, as well as increased collaboration with federal Homeland Security officials and local police.
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Ukranian soldiers set up a machine gun in February. | Anastasia Vlasova/Getty Images | 'WINTER IS COMING' — As Russia's war on Ukraine drags on, U.S. security assistance is shifting to a longer-term campaign that will likely keep more American military troops in Europe into the future, including imminent plans to announce an additional roughly $3 billion in aid to train and equip Ukrainian forces to fight for years to come, U.S. officials said. U.S. officials told The Associated Press that the package is expected to be announced Wednesday, the day the war hits the six-month mark and Ukraine celebrates its independence day. The money will fund contracts for drones, weapons and other equipment that may not see the battlefront for a year or two, they said. Unlike most previous packages, the new funding is largely aimed at helping Ukraine secure its medium- to long-term defense posture, according to officials familiar with the matter. Earlier shipments, most of them done under Presidential Drawdown Authority, have focused on Ukraine's more immediate needs for weapons and ammunition and involved materiel that the Pentagon already has in stock that can be shipped in short order. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg noted the more extended focus today as he reaffirmed the alliance's support for the conflict-torn country. "Winter is coming, and it will be hard, and what we see now is a grinding war of attrition. This is a battle of wills, and a battle of logistics," Stoltenberg said, speaking at a virtual conference about Crimea, organized by Ukraine. "Therefore we must sustain our support for Ukraine for the long term, so that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign, independent nation."
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Rep. Matt Gaetz. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images | IS MATT GAETZ MAGA ENOUGH? — While it hasn't received as much attention as other primaries across the map, one of the Trumpiest and most polarizing members of Congress is getting a taste of his own antics in a Florida contest today, writes Nightly's Myah Ward. Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz has clung to Trump tighter than ever in one of the reddest districts in Florida — the 1st Congressional District, where Trump won nearly 66 percent of the vote in 2020. In the absence of public polling, it's difficult to gauge just how much trouble the Florida Republican is in. While no one is predicting that Gaetz will lose his seat to "America First" candidate Mark Lombardo, a former Marine and former FedEx executive, it's clear the congressman is looking over his shoulder. Gaetz, who's known to float conspiracy theories about everything from the Jan. 6 assault to the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago, is watching his own tactics turned against him. Lombardo released a conspiracy-laden ad last week, questioning Trump's support for Gaetz. "When Donald Trump really endorses someone, he goes big," a narrator in the ad states. "You've seen none of that for lying Matt Gaetz. What does Trump know? Is Gaetz the informant?" His claim that Gaetz is the FBI informant related to the Mar-a-Lago search is not backed by evidence, but that didn't stop the challenger from pushing it further. Lombardo has also hit the Republican lawmaker for the Justice Department's investigation over whether he had a sexual relationship with a 17-year-old and paid for her to travel with him — sex trafficking allegations Gaetz has denied — and notes that Gaetz's campaign hired an attorney who represented convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein for his defense. The ad goes on to question whether Gaetz is seeking payback for Trump allegedly denying him a "blanket" presidential pardon before leaving the White House. Lombardo revisited these conspiratorial claims in another ad, titled "The Informant - Part II," over the weekend, questioning why Donald Trump Jr. was stumping for Gaetz. "Is Trump sending him to get the answers everyone wants?" the narrator asked. "Gaetz hired Epstein's attorney. Another Epstein attorney approved the raid," the narrator said. "Did Gaetz cut a deal? Don Jr. deserves the truth. So do Northwest Florida voters. It's time for Gaetz to come clean, on everything." In response, Gaetz's ads and tweets have leaned hard into his relationship with the former president, and he's called in MAGA-approved reinforcements to back him up: Trump allies like Reps. Jim Jordan (Ohio), Lauren Boebert (Colo.) and Thomas Massie (Ky.) have descended on Florida this month to stump for him. Donald Trump Jr. campaigned for Gaetz on primary eve. Trump himself weighed in over the weekend with a post on Truth Social: He called Gaetz a "Champion of our MAGA Agenda" and said he has his "Complete, and Total Endorsement." Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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