News : POLITICO New York Playbook: Hochul leads Zeldin by 14 points

Tuesday, August 2, 2022

POLITICO New York Playbook: Hochul leads Zeldin by 14 points

Aug 02, 2022

By Erin Durkin , Anna Gronewold and Georgia Rosenberg

Presented by

Gov. Kathy Hochul is leading Rep. Lee Zeldin in the governor's race, but the lead is "certainly not insurmountable."

That's the takeaway from the first public poll in the general election , out this morning from the Siena College Research Institute. Hochul is up 53 percent to 39 percent over her Republican opponent among likely general election voters.

"Fourteen weeks is a long time in politics, and we know most voters don't really begin to focus on elections till after Labor Day," Siena College pollster Steve Greenberg said in a statement. "Still, Hochul has an early — but certainly not insurmountable — lead."

Voters were surveyed between July 24 and 28, and the poll's margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

Breaking it down further, Hochul leads by a huge margin in New York City, 70 percent to 21 percent. Yet Zeldin has the edge in the rest of the state, leading 46-43 in the suburbs and 48-45 upstate. And Hochul is the choice of 78 percent of Black voters compared to just 8 percent for Zeldin, but margins are closer among white voters and Latinos, 50-44 and 49-41, respectively.

Zeldin has been hammering away at concerns about crime, particularly the state's criminal justice reform laws, while Hochul has been championing abortion rights and gun restrictions and attempting to paint her opponent as an extremist. The poll finds broad support for the measures state lawmakers and Hochul have taken recently on abortion and concealed firearms , ensuring that those will remain top Democratic talking points leading up to November.

IT'S TUESDAY. Got tips, suggestions or thoughts? Let us know ... By email: EDurkin@politico.com and agronewold@politico.com , or on Twitter: @erinmdurkin and @annagronewold

WHERE'S KATHY? Speaking at the New York State Building Trades Conference, making a housing and clean energy announcement, and attending National Night Out Against Crime.

WHERE'S ERIC? Making a housing and clean energy announcement with Hochul, appearing on KBLA 1580's "The Tavis Smiley Show," and attending several National Night Out events.

A message from United for Clean Power, Inc.:

The time to take action on planet-saving climate change legislation is NOW. Demand true environmental justice from your Democrat colleagues or block the Reconciliation bill. Over the past decade more than 83% of all disasters around the world were caused by extreme weather and climate-related events. A Reconciliation package without comprehensive climate change provisions would be a catastrophic failure. Demand real climate change action in the Reconciliation package, or kill it altogether.

What City Hall's reading

New York Republicans are falling for Eric Adams , by POLITICO's Erin Durkin: New York Republicans have a new messenger to push their law-and-order agenda ahead of the November midterms: A former cop who wants to rollback the state's progressive bail reforms. The only problem: He's not a Republican. New York City Mayor Eric Adams — the self-anointed "face of the Democratic Party" — has become a reluctant ally to GOP candidates trying to connect with voters fed up with rising crime rates. The mayor, a former NYPD captain who was once a registered Republican, has ramped up his push for stricter pre-trial detention rules just as Republicans running for Congress and the governor's office are doing the same. The GOP is seizing on Adams' unconventional position as further proof that criminal justice reforms are driving rising crime and that most Democrats are out of touch. Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul is pushing back, and that's left Adams in an awkward position as he seeks to balance political allegiance and a key campaign promise to reduce crime.

Adams declares monkeypox state of emergency in New York , by POLITICO's Georgia Rosenberg: Mayor Eric Adams declared a state of emergency over monkeypox on Monday — a move that lets him suspend local laws and enact new rules to better manage the city's outbreak. "This order will bolster our existing efforts to educate, vaccinate, test, and treat as many New Yorkers as possible and ensure a whole-of-government response to this outbreak," Adams said in a statement. The mayor's emergency executive order comes after the city's health department declared monkeypox a public health emergency on Saturday. Under that city declaration, health commissioner Ashwin Vasan can issue orders amending the city's health code to slow the spread of the virus. Gov. Kathy Hochul declared a statewide disaster emergency on Friday, a move she said would pressure the federal government to send additional vaccines to the state.

— " How the U.S. Let 20 Million Doses of Monkeypox Vaccine Expire ," by The New York Times' Joseph Goldstein

" Mayor Adams announces emergency procurement to obtain shelter for asylum seekers ," by amNewYork's Isabel Song Beer: "New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced an emergency procurement declaration to quickly obtain shelter and other services for people seeking asylum in NYC. Approximately 4,000 asylum seekers have entered the city since May of this year, accounting for some of the 10% increase in the NYC Homeless Services' census. About 100 additional asylum seekers are reportedly looking for some form of housing assistance each day in the city. 'New York is a city of immigrants, and we will always welcome newcomers with open arms. Over the past two months, we have seen a significant increase in the number of asylum seekers arriving in our city's shelter system,' said Mayor Adams."

— Texas Gov. Greg Abbott invited Adams to the southern border , but Adams dismissed it as a photo op.

" Pension Plunge Puts Eric Adams in Future Financial Squeeze ," by The City's Greg David: "A sagging stock market is undermining city and state projections for the health of their pension funds — a trend that will likely cost billions of dollars to correct. For several years, rising share values had boosted the value of the assets held to pay benefits for retired government workers, allowing the city and governments throughout the state to save billions of dollars in contributions. Now those good times have come to an end with the selloff in the stock market hitting pension funds even as city income tax collections fall, making it harder for Mayor Eric Adams to balance his city budget while also keeping the retirement funds topped off."

" NYC schools still have $4.4 billion in COVID aid to spend by 2024-25 ," by New York Post's Cayla Bamberger: "Big Apple public schools have hundreds of millions of dollars in federal COVID-19 aid leftover from last school year, according to an analysis by the city Comptroller's Office released Monday. In total, the Department of Education has $4.4 billion in stimulus cash that it must spend by the 2024-25 school year, when the funds expire, Comptroller Brad Lander said. The comptroller's year-end fiscal review found that of $3.02 billion the DOE budgeted for the 2021-22 school year, an estimated $505.6 million in the time-sensitive funds has yet to be committed. Lander argued that amount was more than enough to cover controversial cuts to individual school budgets tied to plunging enrollment."

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .

WHAT ALBANY'S READING

" New York health officials: Polio detected in Rockland wastewater samples ," by Spectrum's Nick Reisman: "The polio virus has been detected in wastewater samples from early June in Rockland County and is genetically linked to a case confirmed last month in the area, New York state Department of Health officials said Monday. The polio cases are also genetically linked to samples from greater Jerusalem, Israel, but that 'does not imply that the individual case identified in New York has travel history to Israel,' officials said. 'Polio is a dangerous disease with potentially devastating consequences,' Health Commissioner Mary Bassett said."

" Hochul draws bipartisan heat after another 'pay-to-play' deal with donor awarded Medicaid business ," by New York Post's Zach Williams and Carl Campanile: "Political watchers across party lines are questioning another instance of apparent 'pay to play' behavior involving campaign cash raised by Gov. Kathy Hochul ahead of the Nov. 8 election — this time involving $52,600 in donations linked to a company getting millions in state Medicaid business. 'There's the appearance of a conflict of interest – even if there isn't one,' Blair Horner, executive director of the government watchdog New York Public Interest Research Group Executive, told The Post Monday. Records show Medical Answering Services, which manages transportation for Medicaid patients on behalf of the state, has donated more than $300,000 to the campaigns of Hochul and disgraced ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who Hochul replaced last August."

" Online portals exploited in two recent absentee ballot fraud cases ," by Times Union's Michelle Del Rey : "Online portals that allow someone to request absentee ballots in the names of others with very little identity verification were apparently exploited in two recent voter fraud cases that resulted in federal criminal charges. A 39-year-old New York City man was arrested last month after FBI agents seized more than 100 absentee ballots — issued in the names of public officials, media personalities and attorneys — from his Manhattan apartment and a New Jersey residence where his father lives. The man, a registered Democrat, was charged with aggravated identity theft and providing false information in voting… In June, a Troy councilwoman pleaded guilty in U.S. District Court in Albany to a federal criminal charge related to her submission of fraudulent absentee ballots in last year's elections."

A message from United for Clean Power, Inc.:

CAMPAIGN MODE

" Democratic Reps. Nadler and Maloney tied in N.Y. 12th congressional district race: poll ," by New York Daily News' Dave Goldiner: "Veteran Democratic House members Jerry Nadler and Carolyn Maloney are locked in a virtual dead heat in their Manhattan congressional cage fight, a new poll released Monday revealed. The two powerful lawmakers garnered 31% apiece in a survey of likely voters ahead of the Aug. 23 primary in the NY-12 race. The poll, which was conducted by their upstart rival Suraj Patel, said 25% would back Patel while 12% remain undecided. The survey showed the crosstown battle between the two longtime political allies basically unchanged in the past month, although it suggested that Patel is making up ground on both of them."

— Rep. Carolyn Maloney got an unwelcome endorsement from Rep. Matt Gaetz.

" Levi Strauss Heir Would Join Congress's Richest With NYC Win ," by Bloomberg's Laura Nahmias: "Dan Goldman, who served as lead Democratic counsel in former President Donald Trump's first impeachment, would be among the richest members of Congress if he's successful in his bid to represent a newly redrawn district in New York City. It's no secret that Goldman, 46, an heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, is rich. But financial disclosure forms shared by his campaign with Bloomberg show the extent of his wealth. He has a net worth of between $64 million and $253 million from over 1,700 assets, which would likely place him among the top 20 wealthiest members of Congress if he were to be elected in November."

Zeldin staying out of Langworthy-Paladino primary , by POLITICO's Bill Mahoney: New York's most prominent Republican is not issuing an endorsement in the state's highest-profile Republican primary. While attending an Erie County GOP event on Saturday, Rep. Lee Zeldin said he has "been focused on the governor's race" rather than the Aug. 23 congressional primary between state party chair Nick Langworthy and Buffalo developer Carl Paladino. "We came right out of the primary and it's all about everybody unifying as strongly as possible to make sure that we're winning on Nov. 8," Zeldin, who won that primary in June, told POLITICO during an event in the region.

AROUND NEW YORK

— Mayor Eric Adams defended his decision to slash the hours of busways in Washington Heights and Flushing.

— House Speaker Nancy Pelosi endorsed Rep. Mondaire Jones in the 10th Congressional District race.

— City speed cameras are now operating 24 hours a day.

— Adams voiced support for the city's outdoor dining program in response to a lawsuit seeking to stop it.

— State Sen. John Liu was targeted in a racist tirade left on his office voicemail.

— Pay for nurses at city public hospitals has exploded since the pandemic began.

— State prisons will now allow inmates to read a book about the Attica uprising — but cut out a map of the facility.

— Adams named Transport Workers Union president John Samuelsen to a congestion pricing panel.

— A second Staten Island NYPD cop was arrested on charges of using a fake license plate .

— Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine is proposing a bike lane to replace a lane of traffic on the West Side Highway.

INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don't miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY .

SOCIAL DATA BY DANIEL LIPPMAN

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT's Matthew Rosenberg … Fox News' Rich Edson … NBC's Dylan Dreyer … Caitlin Huey-Burns of CBS … former Treasury Secretary John Snow … The New Yorker's Larry Wright is 75 … Henry Elghanayan ... Jack Jacobs ... Robert Rae ... NYT's Roger Cohen .. . Avi Lauer … CFR's Steven A. Cook (h/ts Jewish Insider)

MEDIAWATCH — Nick Kristof is returning to the NYT as a columnist following his failed Oregon gubernatorial bid. He will start in the fall after finishing a new book. The announcement

MAKING MOVES — Todd Kaminsky, who just resigned from his seat in the state Senate, will be joining lobbying firm Greenberg Traurig LLP. … James Boyd will be the new deputy commissioner of public information at the city Department of Correction. He previously headed DOC's internal communications unit. … Robert Flock is now VP in the office of strategic engagement at the American Bankers Association. He recently received his MBA from Columbia Business School and was previously director of advocacy for congressional relations at the Credit Union National Association. …

… Chukwudi Motanya is now management consulting manager at EY. He most recently held the same role at Accenture. … Melanie Sheppard has been promoted to be manager - government and public sector consultant at EY.

A message from United for Clean Power, Inc.:

This is Democrats' last chance to save the planet and if we fail, there may never be another opportunity to rescue the next generation from our mistakes. Our planet is in crisis. The time to take action on real planet-saving climate change legislation is NOW. Demand true environmental justice from your Democrat colleagues or kill the Reconciliation bill. Over the past decade more than 83% of all disasters around the world were caused by extreme weather and climate-related events. Half-measures that compromise are NOT acceptable. We have the power and we have the means to get this done. After November, that may not be the case. A Reconciliation package without comprehensive climate change provisions would be a catastrophic failure. Demand true climate change action in the Reconciliation package, or block it's passage altogether.

Real Estate

" 12,000-Unit Bronx Housing Complex Must Accept Housing Vouchers, Judge Rules ," by City Limits' David Brand: "A 12,000-unit Bronx housing complex could soon open to homeless applicants with city-issued rental vouchers after a state judge on Friday ordered the owner to accept a family it had locked out by 'irrational' and discriminatory income eligibility rules. Manhattan Supreme Court Justice Richard Latin sided with a 34-year-old mother of two who sued the owners of Parkchester in the eastern Bronx after she was denied an apartment because she did not earn at least $62,000 a year, even though the CityFHEPS voucher she received from the Department of Social Services (DSS) would cover the full rent."

" East New York Families in Limbo as Developer Plans High Rise to Replace Crumbling Housing Complex ," by City Limits' David Brand and The City's George Joseph: "When Hector Reyes was growing up, his side of Arlington Village was a vibrant community. Neighbors in his brown brick building, one of two sections in the East New York apartment complex, used to organize barbecues in its grassy courtyard, flipping burgers as he and his friends ran around, he recalled. But as Reyes, now 46, grew older, he watched families around him disappear as past owners let the property fall into disrepair. Today, Reyes' family is one of just a handful left in six occupied units of the ramshackle brick dwelling, where green boards and wooden slats cover what were once windows and doors. Now, they're worried that even this crumbling home will be taken away from them."

" Coney Island public housing still struggling with repairs, broken cooking gas 10 years after Sandy ," by Gothamist's Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling: "This fall marks 10 years since Hurricane Sandy, and public housing residents in the seaside community of Coney Island are still struggling with its legacy on a daily basis. Delayed repairs and temporary fixes — some dating back to the initial aftermath — have continuously interrupted essential services like heat and, in some buildings, running water. Now, a decade-long remediation project is directly responsible for a cooking gas line break at O'Dwyer Gardens, one of the Coney Island's largest public housing complexes. Hundreds of families in O'Dwyer have been calling for the city to restore cooking gas since construction broke ground on NYCHA's Resilience and Recovery project in February, according to residents and local leaders."