Wednesday, August 3, 2022

Last night's biggest primary winner wasn’t a candidate

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POLITICO Playbook

By Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt takes the stage to thank his supporters in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate during his election night party.

Republicans in Missouri were able to keep former Gov. Eric Greitens from staging a political comeback, as AG Eric Schmitt easily won the Republican Senate primary nomination — effectively assuring that the seat will likely remain in GOP hands come November. | David Carson/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP

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DRIVING THE DAY

What a night. Millions of voters took to the polls yesterday, and the takeaways are many: the blocked political return of a scandal-plagued former governor, mixed results (once again) for former President DONALD TRUMP and primary defeats for two incumbent members of Congress seeking reelection.

But the most surprising vote — and possibly most wide-reaching — wasn't a race between two candidates; it came instead on one of the most divisive issues in American life: abortion rights.

IN KANSAS … A POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE — By a stunning, roughly 20-point margin, Kansas voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have given state lawmakers the chance to either further restrict or ban abortions in the state. Turnout swelled — "approaching what's typical for a fall election for governor," per the AP — and the "no" vote did well not just in Democratic strongholds, but in conservative and rural areas, outperforming JOE BIDEN's 2020 vote share there.

It marked the first time since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade that voters had a chance to directly weigh in on abortion rights.

The result is "a political earthquake with the potential to reshape the entire midterm campaign," David Siders, Adam Wren and Zach Montellaro write in their rundown of election takeaways.

Reporting from Kansas, our Alice Miranda Ollstein writes that "the vote also countered the narrative that the abortion issue is a bigger motivator for conservative voters, and may signal a warning to Republican lawmakers across the country that the Roe decision may generate considerable backlash over the coming months and years.

"Politically, the outcome is sure to reverberate across the country and buoy the Democrats' bid to capitalize on the overturning of Roe in the midterm battle for Congress this fall. It will lift the party's hopes that anger over the Supreme Court's decision will matter more than concerns about inflation and President JOE BIDEN's leadership, allowing Democrats to maintain their narrow majorities on Capitol Hill," she writes.

Sure enough, on Tuesday night, Biden issued a statement trumpeting the Kansas result and calling on Congress to "restore the protections of Roe as federal law."

IN MISSOURI … GOP BREATHES A SIGH OF RELIEF — Republicans in the Show Me State were able to keep scandal-plagued former Gov. ERIC GREITENS from staging a political comeback, as AG ERIC SCHMITT easily won the Republican Senate primary nomination — effectively assuring that the seat will likely remain in GOP hands come November.

A chart shows the percentages each candidate received in the Missouri Senate GOP primary.

Alex Isenstadt has the inside story into the "secret, yearlong campaign" to thwart Greitens' comeback. Here are some key moments from the deep dive:

— Top Republicans lobbied Trump to stay out of the race. RNC Chair RONNA MCDANIEL and NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) "went to Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate to meet with the former president." Other Republicans who relayed concerns about Greitens included South Carolina Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM, casino magnate and GOP megadonor STEVE WYNN and Trump White House adviser KELLYANNE CONWAY.

— "Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL's political machine … weighed its options until near the end of the contest, when it quietly contributed around $6.7 million to the anti-Greitens TV blitz, a previously unreported investment that helped seal the ex-governor's fate."

— Schmitt himself "moved to block a Greitens endorsement" by Trump by frequenting the TV networks Trump watches ("His campaign even booked appearances on Fox News that were timed to when they believed Trump would be returning from his regular golf outings") and becoming "a visitor to Mar-a-Lago and the former president's Bedminster, N.J. golf club, where in meetings with Trump he highlighted Greitens' past scandals and called him a 'quitter,' a word Trump viewed as an insult, according to a person familiar with the discussions."

IN MICHIGAN … MEIJER, LEVIN DEFEATED — There were a number of big primary results in Michigan, but the defeats of two incumbent members of Congress stand out:

— PETER MEIJER, a Republican who supported Trump's impeachment after Jan. 6 and didn't back away from that vote, was defeated by Trump-backed JOHN GIBBS , a MAGA conservative and newcomer to electoral politics who denies the outcome of the 2020 election.

Due to redistricting, the seat has become substantially more Democratic than Meijer's existing lines, and Gibbs' victory makes it a prime pickup opportunity. In recent weeks, the DCCC spent $425,000 on ads boosting Gibbs' appeal to the GOP by attacking him as too conservative and Trumpy — an amount of money "comparable to what Gibbs raised the entire cycle," as David, Adam and Zach note.

— ANDY LEVIN, scion of Michigan's Levin political dynasty, was trounced by HALEY STEVENS in a member-vs-member Democratic primary for the nomination in a safe, suburban Oakland County district. The race attracted millions in outside spending on behalf of both candidates, with the campaign taking on a vicious tone that frustrated many local Democrats. More from the Detroit News

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IN ARIZONA … TRUMP HAS A VERY GOOD NIGHT — Though Arizona's gubernatorial primary remains too close to call — with about 78% of the vote in, Trump-backed KARI LAKE leads KARRIN TAYLOR ROBSON by less than two points — Trump's endorsees effectively steamrolled their opponents in most other races in Arizona. Two worth noting:

— U.S. Senate: "BLAKE MASTERS, who's backed by both Trump and tech investor PETER THIEL, was declared the U.S. Senate primary winner by the Associated Press after building a lead over former solar power executive JIM LAMON and MARK BRNOVICH, the current Arizona attorney general," writes Arizona Republic's Taylor Seely . "Masters will face Democratic incumbent MARK KELLY in the November general election."

— Secretary of State: MARK FINCHEM — "a poster child for election deniers following the 2020 election," as Zach Montellaro recently wrote — won the GOP nomination to be the state's top election official.

Full results: Arizona statewide and Arizona congressional districtsKansas statewide and Kansas congressional districts Michigan statewide and Michigan congressional districtsMissouri statewide and Missouri congressional districts Washington statewide and Washington congressional districts

THE AUGUST PRIMARY CALENDAR

Aug. 2
Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington

Aug. 4
Tennessee

Aug. 9
Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont and Wisconsin

Aug. 13
Hawaii

Aug. 16
Alaska and Wyoming

Aug. 23
Florida and New York

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza .

BURN PITS BILL PASSES SENATE — "Senate sends veterans health care bill to Biden," by Anthony Adragna and Jordain Carney: "Republicans quickly fell in line behind the bill — after blocking it less than a week ago — after Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER allowed three GOP amendment votes, all of which failed on the floor."

Activist and entertainer Jon Stewart hugs Rosie Torres, wife of veteran Le Roy Torres, who suffers from illnesses related to his exposure to burn pits in Iraq.

Jon Stewart hugs a fellow activist following the Senate's passage of a bill designed to help veterans exposed to toxic substances during their military service outside the Capitol on Tuesday. | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

MALONEY VS. NADLER … VS. BIDEN? — If Biden is searching for true believers within his party who think he will run and win in 2024, it sounds like he can cross Reps. CAROLYN MALONEY and JERRY NADLER off the list at this point. The two stalwart Dems (and their newcomer challenger) faced off in a debate on Tuesday night as they vie for a newly drawn Manhattan district and were asked whether they would support Biden's reelection.

Nadler: "Too early to say. Doesn't serve the purpose of the Democratic Party to, to deal with that until after the midterms."

Maloney: "I don't believe he's running for reelection." Read more from AP's Michelle Price

N.Y. Mag's Ross Barkan goes deep on the contentious primary: "Not since BELLA ABZUG, the proto-AOC, launched a primary challenge against a popular liberal congressman a half-century ago have two Manhattan Democrats clashed in such a way. The primary has riven political clubs, paralyzed unions, and forced the many affluent, well-wired Democrats of the city to decide, once and for all, whom they really prefer."

SURVEY SAYS — The latest POLITICO/Morning Consult poll looks at the components of the proposed Inflation Reduction Act, with some results that are sure to be music to JOE MANCHIN's ears:

  • Caps on prescription drug prices: It's the most popular part of the bill, with 77% of voters voicing their support, including strong support from an outright majority of 51% of voters.
  • Allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices: 43% strongly support, 73% total support.
  • Reducing the federal deficit by $300 billion: 42% strongly support, 73% total support. 
  • Limiting costs for Medicare beneficiaries: 44% strongly support, 72% total support

There's a lot more in this poll that you're going to want to check out. We'll have more in Playbook PM, but in the meantime: Crosstabs Toplines

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BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:

9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

2 p.m.: Biden will virtually deliver remarks at the first meeting of the interagency Task Force on Reproductive Healthcare Access, with VP KAMALA HARRIS, A.G. MERRICK GARLAND, HHS Secretary XAVIER BECERRA , VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH and DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS also in attendance.

Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 12:45 p.m.

THE SENATE is in. The Judiciary Committee will hold a hearing at 10 a.m. on protecting election workers, with testimony from secretaries of state and others. The Rules Committee will hold a hearing on Electoral Count Act reform at 10:30 a.m.

THE HOUSE is out.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today .

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Taiwanese President President Tsai Ing-wen wave in Taipei, Taiwan.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi meets with Taiwanese President President Tsai Ing-wen in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, Aug. 3. | Taiwan Presidential Office via AP

PLAYBOOK READS

CONGRESS

SINEMATOGRAPHY — A mask-clad Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) spoke to Sen. KYRSTEN SINEMA (D-Ariz.) on the Senate floor for roughly 10 minutes on Tuesday afternoon, "animatedly waving his hands during the hushed discussion," per Burgess Everett . Later, Manchin spoke to Stephanie Ruhle on MSNBC's "The 11th Hour" about the interaction.

Here's what Manchin told MSNBC: "We did have a nice conversation. And we're exchanging papers back and forth to make sure we understand everything, and she understands where we're coming from. … So we'll just have to see how it goes. But we're talking."

If history is any indication, Sinema will remain quiet on her position until it's time to vote, Burgess writes, which is leading Senate Dems with no choice but to take a gamble and start the series of votes this week without having the final tally already in hand.

Related read: "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill," by NBC's Sahil Kapur in Phoenix: "Trump-supporting Republicans in the Grand Canyon State are encouraging the centrist senator to kill the bill, while Democrats warn that would doom her future in politics."

HAWLEY HAWKING — Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) has staked out a rather Trumpian foreign policy position this week, coming out against a joint effort by Finland and Sweden to join NATO — "a vote that could end with him standing alone in the 'no' camp," Andrew Desiderio writes . While the vote would differentiate him within the pool of potential 2024 presidential candidates in the Senate, his colleagues say it's ill-advised.

Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas): "I think it's mistaken. … We don't beat China by retreating from the rest of the world. We beat China by standing with our allies against our enemies."

TRUMP CARDS

THE T WORD — Top Arizona GOP officials expressed serious concerns about Trump's effort to overturn the 2020 election as the plan unfolded. How serious? According to emails obtained by NYT's Maggie Haberman and Luke Broadwater , Arizona Republican Party Chair KELLI WARD and state Sen. KELLY TOWNSEND were worried that their involvement could be viewed as treason. Here's what Trump lawyer KENNETH CHESEBRO wrote in December 2020 to a group that included RUDY GIULIANI: "Ward and Townsend are concerned it could appear treasonous for the AZ electors to vote on Monday if there is no pending court proceeding that might, eventually, lead to the electors being ratified as the legitimate ones," writing the word "treasonous" in bold.

ALL POLITICS

BEHIND THE SCENES — Puck's Teddy Schleifer has some details on Team Pelosi's August fundraising crown jewel — known simply as "Napa" — that has more intrigue than ever this year as the longtime California Democrat is widely expected to retire sometime next year. Among this year's notable guests will be Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG and former A.G. ERIC HOLDER, Schleifer reports.

— Schleifer also peels back the curtain on the Rockbridge Network, a band of secretive donors who are aligned with PETER THIEL — though to what extent is mostly unknown at this point. "It remains to be seen, as it does to many Republican finance sources, whether the donor table actually has any heft behind it. Is this a cute little passion project of a few donors, or is it a Koch network being built in plain sight? 'It's a combination of cute and headed somewhere,' one Republican fundraiser who talks with Rockbridge said."

THE RACE TO TAKE ON DESANTIS — "Matt Gaetz and the R word: Florida's Democratic primary takes bitter detour," by Gary Fineout in Tallahassee

WATCH: "Small donors are bankrolling DeSantis toward 2024: 6 things to know," by Matt Dixon and Lara Priluck

A thumbnail of Ron DeSantis is pictured.

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JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

WHO'S TALKING — PAT CIPOLLONE has been subpoenaed by a federal grand jury investigating the effort to overturn the 2020 election and the Jan. 6 Capitol attack, ABC's Katherine Faulders, John Santucci, and Alexander Mallin scoop . Sources told ABC that Cipollone's attorneys are expected to negotiate an appearance. "The move to subpoena Cipollone signals an even more dramatic escalation in the Justice Department's investigation of the Jan. 6 attack than previously known, following appearances by senior members of former Vice President MIKE PENCE's staff before the grand jury two weeks ago."

MORE DELETED TEXTS — "The Defense Department wiped the phones of top departing DOD and Army officials at the end of the Trump administration, deleting any texts from key witnesses to events surrounding the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, according to court filings," CNN's Tierney Sneed and Zachary Cohen report . The information was revealed through a FOIA lawsuit brought by American Oversight, which is seeking records from former acting Defense Secretary CHRIS MILLER, former chief of staff KASH PATEL, former Army Secretary RYAN MCCARTHY and other DoD officials.

HEADS UP — "Judge rejects bid to delay Oath Keepers Jan. 6 trial," by Josh Gerstein

ABORTION FALLOUT

DOJ TAKES ACTION IN IDAHO — The Justice Department sued Idaho on Tuesday, "seeking to invalidate the state's restrictive abortion law," USA Today's Kevin Johnson writes , marking the first instance of federal involvement on the state level since the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade. "The Idaho law, set to take effect Aug. 25, imposes a near-total ban on abortion and violates federal law, which allows for the procedure in cases when emergency treatment is necessary to stabilize patients, federal officials said."

KAINE AND ABLE? — Sen. TIM KAINE is "not the typical Democratic spokesperson for restoring Roe v. Wade: He's a practicing Catholic who personally opposes abortion." But he's still pushing to find a bipartisan compromise on the issue, Marianne LeVine writes this morning . "Kaine's bipartisan foray with [GOP Sen. SUSAN] COLLINS , a frequent target of the left, is alienating some of the same abortion-rights groups he votes with and getting him static from his progressive colleagues. But the 64-year-old sees his attempt to walk a bipartisan line on Roe as in keeping with his faith and his role as a senator."

THE NEW GENERATION — "Olivia Julianna on Gen Z for Change, Fundraising Off Matt Gaetz, and Texas Politics," by Teen Vogue's Fortesa Latifi: "The 19-year-old took on a congressman and raised more than $2 million for abortion funds. Here's what she's up to next."

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE TAIWAN TRIP — "Pelosi says U.S. will not abandon Taiwan as China protests," by AP's Huizhong Wu:

"The real crisis over Taiwan will start after Pelosi comes home," by WaPo's Josh Rogin

HOW IT HAPPENED — NYT's Julian Barnes and Eric Schmitt have the tick tock on how the strike that killed Al Qaeda's leader: "Intelligence officers made a crucial discovery this spring after tracking AYMAN AL-ZAWAHRI, the leader of Al Qaeda, to Kabul, Afghanistan: He liked to read alone on the balcony of his safe house early in the morning. …

"The hunt for al-Zawahri, one of the world's most wanted terrorists, stretches back to before the Sept. 11 attacks. The C.I.A. continued to search for him as he rose to the top of Al Qaeda after the death of OSAMA BIN LADEN and after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan last year. And a misstep during the chase, the recruitment of a double agent, led to one of the bloodiest days in the agency's history."

The view from Biden world: Our colleague Jonathan Lemire writes that many within Biden's circle believe the successful strike "bolstered its case that its over-the-horizon strategy — meaning that terror threats could be snuffed out in Afghanistan without a significant military presence there — was working." ( WSJ's Warren Strobel and Michael Gordon cover the view of critics .)

Related reads: "Slain al Qaeda leader's presence in Kabul strains U.S.-Taliban ties," by Nahal Toosi and Bryan Bender … "The downside: U.S. strike shows Afghanistan still terror base," by AP's Aamer Madhani, Zeke Miller, Nomaan Merchant and Lolita Baldor … "Taliban facing backlash after U.S. drone strike against al-Qaeda leader," WaPo

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Joe Manchin sparred with Harris Faulkner on inflation.

Kathy Hochul showed off her basketball skills .

J.D. Vance judged a ribs and pulled pork contest .

G.K. Butterfield appreciated a Capitol Hill Books shout-out for his name.

Stephen King took The Stand for the Justice Department .

IN MEMORIAM — "Bush Institute announces passing of Lindsay Lloyd, former Director of the Human Freedom Initiative"

WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Tim Wu is leaving the administration in the coming months, Bloomberg scooped . "Wu is expected to return to antitrust law at Columbia Law School after serving as special assistant to the president for technology and competition policy since March 2021."

MEDIA MOVE — Sisi Wei is joining The Markup as editor in chief. She previously was co-executive director of OpenNews and is a ProPublica alum. The announcement

TRANSITIONS — Jen Farber is now a senior VP at Precision Strategies. She previously was a managing director at Firehouse Strategies. … Luke Peterson is now head of data & analytics at Golin. He previously was deputy assistant secretary leading research and analytics for global public affairs at the State Department. … Jean Toal Eisen is joining the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy as VP for corporate strategy. She previously was the staff director/clerk for the Senate Appropriations Commerce Justice, Science, and Related Agencies Subcommittee.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Bernadette MeehanJames Wegmann of Sen. Ben Sasse's (R-Neb.) office … Michael Frazier … Kaiser Health News' Rachana PradhanMatthew Foldi (26) … Tom Qualtere … ABC's Ben Siegel and John ParkinsonScott ParkinsonRick Murphy of Forbes Tate Partners … Claire Olszewski of the Obama Foundation … Jeff Dressler of SoftBank … Tom FreedmanMatt Compton … former Sen. Roland Burris (D-Ill.) … Jordan BurkeErikka KnutiGraham MacGillivray Dmitri MehlhornJessica EnnisBrian MorgensternJoe McLean Jennifer Swanson … City Journal's Brian Anderson … NYT's Clarissa MatthewsJacob Weisberg of Pushkin Industries … Joe Ramallo of Sen. Bill Cassidy's (R-La.) office … Jay Caruso of the Washington Examiner Magazine … Voters of Tomorrow's Shaadi Ahmadzadeh Andrew Craft … SKDK's Rachael Shackelford Brad Brooks … CNN's Joe Ruiz

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