Friday, July 1, 2022

Violence is getting real

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By David Siders

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Then-President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally.

Then-President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP Photo

IT'S NOT JUST TRUMP — The testimony this week that former President Donald Trump knew some of his supporters were armed when he told them to march on the Capitol is still spinning heads in much of official Washington.

But maybe we shouldn't be so surprised.

If we've learned anything from the Jan. 6 riot and, more recently, the fallout from the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade, it's that political violence not only has a constituency in this country, but the numbers of those inclined to violence appear to be growing.

Trump isn't an outlier. Following the Court's decision last week, a Republican state Senate candidate in Rhode Island appeared to punch his Democratic opponent at an abortion rights rally. At a demonstration in Iowa, a truck was filmed running through a crowd. In Colorado, police were investigating a possible arson at a Christian pregnancy center, while a pregnancy center in Buffalo, N.Y., reported a similar attack.

That's just in recent days. Last month, in Wisconsin, a former judge was killed by an assailant who authorities reportedly said had other government targets. A California man pleaded not guilty last week to trying to kill Brett Kavanaugh, the conservative Supreme Court justice. And then there's Eric Greitens, the disgraced former governor of Missouri, who recently put up an ad in which he cocks a gun and enters a house with it, urging the "hunting" of insufficiently hard-line members of the GOP.

It's probably time to stop pretending violence is an aberration in our political square, or that Trump is a one-off.

"We're just so desensitized to this violence," said Lee Drutman, a senior fellow at New America whose warnings about political violence before the 2020 election turned out to be prescient. "It's really an incredibly scary time."

How scary is up for debate. During Trump's presidency, and especially after Jan. 6, some historians compared the current state of unrest to the pre-Civil War era. And even if that is going too far, the trend line isn't good. The proportion of Americans who say political violence is acceptable in at least some situations varies widely by poll. But even modest estimates — of about 1 in 10 — add up to millions of people. And the feeling appears to be on the rise, especially on the right.

"The point to make," Barbara Walter, the author of "How Civil Wars Start," told Nightly, is that "supporters of each party in the U.S. now see the other side as an existential threat to their vision of the future of America."

Before the Roe decision, Walter said, one thing the prospect of peace had going for it was that even the nation's reddest states had blue population centers.

"The battle lines," she said, "aren't as clear-cut as they were in the 1860s."

But Roe could change that, Walter said, if state-level restrictions on abortion in Republican-controlled states push more progressive voters to Democratic states.

"This is the first earthquake," she said, "the first real restriction on individual liberties."

Maybe the political climate will cool before that happens. Drutman predicts there will be a moment in which "things go too far and we'll kind of pull back."

But every indication is that we aren't there yet. Drutman said, "It's hard to see how things get better before they get worse."

"Sometimes I wonder if the mob had succeeded in actually hanging Mike Pence, whether that would have been enough," he said. "I think probably that would have been enough. But I fear we may have to get to a moment like that before we collectively say, 'Enough.'"

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Programming note: We'll be off this Monday for July Fourth, but we'll be back and better than ever on Tuesday. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders.

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What'd I Miss?

— Extremism watchdog providing testimony and research to Jan. 6 committee: The Southern Poverty Law Center, a legal advocacy organization, has provided testimony and research to the Jan. 6 committee, according to a senior counsel at the group. It comes amid investigators' planning for a hearing on the nexus between Trump and domestic extremism. The assistance from the SPLC, which monitors extremist groups like the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, is part of under-the-radar help investigators have received from outside groups and experts with relevant knowledge.

— State Department offers reward for info on foreign election interference: The State Department is offering up to $10 million to those who provide information on foreign interference in U.S. elections, officials announced today. The Rewards for Justice program aims to gather information that leads to the identification or location of any foreign person or entity "who knowingly engaged or is engaging in foreign election interference," department officials wrote in a statement. Information that hinders foreign election interference will also be accepted.

— Push to rein in social media sweeps the states: Efforts to police speech on social media are spreading across the country, with lawmakers in 34 states pushing bills that are already setting up court battles with tech giants over the First Amendment. State legislators have introduced more than 100 bills in the past year aiming to regulate how social media companies such as Facebook and Twitter handle their users' posts, according to POLITICO's analysis of data from the National Conference of State Legislatures. However, only three bills have become law, including statutes in Texas and Florida aimed at punishing platforms that Republicans accuse of censoring conservatives — and federal courts have blocked those two states' measures from taking effect.

— Biden names Medal of Freedom recipients: Denzel Washington, Megan Rapinoe and the late Sen. John McCain are among the 17 Americans who will receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Joe Biden at a ceremony next week, the White House announced today. While not all of Biden's picks have worked directly in government, many have ties to political and social advocacy.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

$820M FOR UKRAINE The Pentagon announced today an additional $820 million in security assistance to Ukraine, a move Biden previewed at the NATO summit on Thursday in Madrid, writes Lee Hudson.

Using his presidential drawdown powers, Biden will give Kyiv's forces two National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, developed by Kongsberg and Raytheon Technologies.

Other items included in the package are additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, up to 150,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition and four additional counter-artillery radars.

The U.S. has committed $6.9 billion to Ukraine since the Russian invasion on Feb. 24.

BAD BOYS Even after being accused of sexual assault, it's hard to get in trouble with Boris Johnson, write Emilio Casalicchio and Esther Webber.

Despite lurid groping allegations against senior MP Chris Pincher after a booze-fueled evening in a private Westminster club, the prime minister spent almost 24 hours battling to keep his ally from getting kicked out of the Conservative Party. 

Pincher did eventually quit his powerful job as deputy chief whip — second in command in the team tasked, somewhat ironically, with keeping Conservative MPs in line — but there was a full day of pressure before Johnson bowed to the inevitable and suspended Pincher's party affiliation, pending an inquiry.

This lack of decisive action came as no surprise in Westminster, where Johnson's reluctance to wield the knife against offending colleagues is legendary.

Those who know him say he likes to protect his allies; is squeamish about confrontation; and — crucially — has little compunction for standards himself.

 

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Nightly Number

16

The number of schools in the Big Ten conference, now that the University of Southern California and University of California Los Angeles are being added as members. The move would further expand the conference's presence into the nation's largest media markets and allow the Big Ten to keep pace with the Southeastern Conference. Some lawmakers, including Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), criticized the decision — saying the move is exploiting college athletes.

AROUND THE NATION

ABORTION AND THE FILIBUSTER — The only way Democrats could codify Roe v. Wade into federal law is with a world-beating bank shot that requires two new Senate votes to weaken the filibuster. Enter Battleground Wisconsin, writes Burgess Everett.

Senate races in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania represent Democrats' best chance to net two extra seats — enough, presumably, to chip away at chamber rules that empower the minority party to block legislation. Biden boosted their effort Thursday by endorsing an exemption to the 60-vote threshold to preserve nationwide abortion rights.

But Democrats need to beat historical odds and hold the House to make that happen. And even if they do, they still need to pick someone to challenge Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), a human controversy-seeking missile who opposes abortion rights and has given confusing accounts of his actions on Jan. 6, 2021 — but has confounded Democrats for two straight Senate races.

Ahead of the state's Aug. 9 primary, the Supreme Court's Roe decision supercharged competition among the leading Democratic contenders to take on Johnson. Their jostling illustrates the party's intense focus on picking the best candidate to capitalize on progressive energy over the high court ruling, which halted Planned Parenthood's abortion procedures in the state.

More on the abortion fight: The president meets with governors to discuss women's reproductive rights.

President Joe Biden speaks virtually to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.

 

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Parting Words

HOT MESSThe airline industry may be booming, but flying is arguably worse than ever, with cancellations and delays rampant — and more disruptions predicted for the busy July Fourth weekend.

And there's not much the federal government can do about it, writes Oriana Pawlyk.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg recently called airline CEOs to a meeting to talk about how to ease the delays and cancellations that have stranded thousands of passengers this summer — during the Juneteenth-Father's Day weekend, some 3,000 flights were canceled and tens of thousands more delayed. But so far, talking is all that's happened.

Airlines are trying to get a handle on delays — much of which are attributed to short staffing for various safety-sensitive positions — by cutting flights carriers know they won't have enough staff to fly, and by making it easier for passengers to change their plans.

Delta Air Lines, for example, proactively announced it will offer travel waivers this weekend for passengers to avoid paying large sums in fare or change fees ahead of July Fourth. And United cut its capacity at Newark Liberty International Airport — one of the worst at present for delays and canceled flights — to try to curb ongoing disruptions there.

But that may not be enough to avoid another painful holiday weekend.

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