Friday, July 1, 2022

🌞 Axios AM: America's sun magnet

Plus: Drones are the new fireworks | Friday, July 01, 2022
 
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Axios AM
By Mike Allen · Jul 01, 2022

🧨 Happy Friday, and welcome to July. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,183 words ... 4½ mins. Edited by Noah Bressner.

 
 
1 big thing: America's sun magnet
Data: Census Bureau (The two labeled counties have the largest change for those with populations over 10,000.) Map: Simran Parwani/Axios

The map above shows distinct migration to the West and Sunbelt during the pandemic, based on census figures out yesterday.

  • Why it matters: This race to the Rockies and Southwest in our work-from-anywhere world signals emerging powers in tech, business, politics, philanthropy — every dimension of life.

Two other accelerating trends detailed by the Census Bureau:

  1. America is getting older: Since 2000, the national median age — the point at which half the population is older and half younger — has grown by 3.4 years, to 38.8 years. Only one state, Maine, became slightly younger.
  2. America is getting more diverse: Every race and origin group grew from July 2020 to July 2021 — except the white population, which fell 0.03%. "Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander" was the fastest-growing category, increasing 1.54%. Hispanic was the largest category in numerical gain (800,000) — and second-fastest-growing, up 1.24%.

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🔎 Explore an interactive version of this map: Just hover to get your county's data.

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2. Coming soon: Consumer access to new data on health care prices

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

 

Patients are being promised a clearer picture of what insurers and employers pay for health care under a federal rule that kicks in today.

  • But that depends partly on health-tech companies trying to make the trove of data understandable, Axios' Tina Reed reports.

Why it matters: Patients often have no idea what a procedure or service costs — and have little ability to comparison shop — until they're left holding the bag with a higher bill than they expected.

Starting today, insurers have to list their negotiated rates with in-network providers, as well as out-of-network allowed amounts and billed charges for certain items and services.

  • It's part of a Trump-era price transparency rule that also required hospitals to start posting negotiated rates last year.

Behind the scenes: Health-care tech companies are eager to get their hands on this massive trove of machine-readable files to translate it for use by consumers.

  • While some consumer price comparison tools exist, including on some insurer and provider websites, the numbers don't always match.
  • Some tools offer only potential ranges of prices or are based on historical claims data, which can be outdated.

🔮 What's next: The next step is the AI-driven tech tools getting better at predicting bundles of care that often occur together.

The bottom line: This push for price transparency has been years in the making, but it'll probably take a while to impact the average consumer.

  • Tech tools will likely start by offering more directional information, including an idea of where patients might save the most money.

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3. 😱 Market's worst first half since 1970
Data: S&P Dow Jones Indices. Chart: Nicki Camberg/Axios

You just lived through the stock market's worst first half since the Nixon administration, Axios Markets co-author Matt Phillips writes.

  • The S&P 500 dropped 20.6% in the first half of 2022, as the Fed launched a tough rate-hiking campaign to counter inflation.
  • That's the ugliest first half for stocks since 1970, when a recession was getting underway.

Of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, just one gained from January to June:

  • Energy stocks, which rose 29.2% on soaring crude oil and gasoline prices.

Carnage was worse in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which has fallen 29.5% so far in 2022.

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In the metaverse, future surgeons will be able to practice advanced procedures hundreds of times before seeing real patients – helping them gain experience and master their skills.

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4. EPA loss is just the beginning
Illustration of the EPA logo, with part if it deflating.

Illustration: Brendan Lynch/Axios

 

Yesterday's Supreme Court ruling on the EPA, curtailing the Biden administration's power on climate change, is an opening salvo in what may be a protracted battle to rein in federal regulations.

  • Why it matters: By rooting the decision in the major questions doctrine, the court signaled receptiveness to future cases in which plaintiffs can argue that federal agencies overstepped their authority.

Experts expect more challenges to what Roberts' opinion calls the "administrative state," Andrew Freedman and Ben Geman write in Axios Generate.

  • This is court-speak for the federal agencies that issue regulations on everything from clean water to aviation safety.

Between the lines: One near-term target could be the SEC's drive to issue climate risk disclosure requirements.

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5. ⚖️ Living history: Justice Jackson
Graphic: Jim Sergent/USA Today. Used by kind permission

The day after Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was sworn in, becoming the first Black woman on the Supreme Court, USA Today's cover shows the current court (six Republican nominees, three Democratic nominees) ... and the 107 former justices.

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6. 🇭🇰 Xi cements Hong Kong grip
Photo: Selim Chtayti/AFP

Above: Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) looks on today as Hong Kong's incoming chief executive, John Lee, is sworn in ... on the 25th anniversary of the city's handover from Britain to China on July 1, 1997.

Xi said "there is no reason at all to change" the global financial hub's "one country, two systems" formula of governance.

  • "It must be maintained for a long time," he said, in what appeared to be an attempt to reassure residents that Hong Kong could retain its remaining freedoms.
  • But Xi defended the crackdown on dissidents, emphasizing that Beijing had "comprehensive jurisdiction" over Hong Kong.

The bottom line: Xi's visit "seals his victory over Hong Kong's once-vocal opposition," as the N.Y. Times puts it (subscription).

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7. 🏈 Big Ten adds USC, UCLA
Illustration of the USC and UCLA logos riding away in a convertible

Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios

 

USC and UCLA announced they're leaving the Pac-12 conference to join the Midwest-based Big Ten in 2024 — a bombshell that caught the college sports world completely off-guard, Axios Sports editor Kendall Baker writes.

  • Why it matters: The future of college sports seems clear — two "super conferences" built from the foundations of the SEC, which will soon add Texas and Oklahoma, and the Big Ten, now coast to coast.

The Pac-12, something of a laughing stock among the Power 5 football conferences, faces an uncertain future without the L.A. schools.

  • The Big Ten and SEC had already separated themselves financially from the ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12. Now, armed with the biggest brands in college sports, it won't even be close.

What's next: This is expected to trigger more moves. Could other Pac-12 schools also join the Big Ten? What about Notre Dame?

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8. 🎆 1 fun thing: Drones are the new fireworks
Tusayan, Arizona — a gateway to the Grand Canyon — eschews fireworks but welcomes drones. Photo: Hireuavpro.com

Colorfully lit drones will fly in patriotic formations over cities across the U.S. this Fourth of July.

  • The newfangled alternative to fireworks is particularly popular in the bone-dry West, where sparks can cause catastrophic wildfires, Jennifer A. Kingson writes for Axios What's Next.
  • The shift away from fireworks is worldwide: India and China — billed as the birthplace of fireworks are cracking down on their use.

Demand is so high that the handful of companies that operate drone lights shows say they're completely booked — and have been for months, leaving late-to-the-table municipalities out of luck.

  • But drones aren't yet a serious threat to the fireworks industry, the American Pyrotechnics Association told Reuters, and lack the "multisensory" experience — the smoke smell, the explosive crackle.

Drones are more expensive than fireworks — starting around $25,000, compared to as little as $2,000 for a small-town fireworks show. But they're billed as safer, cleaner and more customizable.

🥊 Drones can even simulate a fireworks display.

Share this story ... Go deeper: Year-by-year fireworks revenues.

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The metaverse may be virtual, but the impact will be real
 
 

Meta is helping build the metaverse so aviation mechanics will be able to practice servicing different jet engines – preparing them for any complex job.

The result: A more skilled workforce.

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