Hi, China Watchers. This week we explore what — if anything — might stall Taiwan's slide toward casus belli for a future U.S.-China military conflict, preview the CCP leadership's Beidaihe beachside retreat and share some of the Chinese internet's cheekiest nicknames for President Xi Jinping. And we'll profile a book that unpacks the perceived follies of U.S. "engagement" with China. Let's get to it — Phelim Deepening U.S.-China rancor over Taiwan has transformed the self-governing island's role in the bilateral superpower relationship from long-term manageable irritant to risky running sore. The stand-off between Washington and Beijing over a planned trip by House Speaker NANCY PELOSI to Taiwan next month — Pelosi has said that the Pentagon has warned her plane " would get shot down " if she proceeds with the visit — underscores its potential as a flashpoint for military conflict. Reversing Taiwan's slide toward conflict risk status will require President JOE BIDEN and Chinese leader XI JINPING to reinforce their commitment to existing agreements governing the U.S.-China relationship at the price of potentially fraught domestic political consequences. "We're smack in the middle of a security dilemma where both sides are convinced that they're the victim, and unless we can begin to dilute the security dilemma where neither side can resist a tit-for-tat retaliation and one-upmanship, then we remain in an extremely high-risk status," said DANNY RUSSEL , former assistant secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs and vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute. "Our starting point is ... that Beijing essentially promised that it would seek to resolve the Taiwan issue peacefully, that Taipei basically promised that it would not close the door on the possibility of unification or declare independence, and the U.S. promised that it would not support Taiwan independence." Beijing has sabotaged that status quo with a relentless campaign of hostility targeting Taiwan since the 2016 election of Taiwanese President TSAI ING-WEN of the pro-independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party. The Chinese government has rebuffed Tsai's efforts to reduce tensions and on Tuesday WANG YANG, chair of the influential CCP advisory body the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, warned Tsai's administration that it was pushing the island to the "abyss of disaster." That antagonism has prompted both the European Union and Japan to disavow such intimidation and seek closer ties with Taipei. Hands off, it's ours. The Chinese Communist Party considers " reunification with Taiwan ," a territory that the CCP has never ruled, a "historical task." It's also key to Xi's credibility as he seeks an unprecedented third term as China's leader later this year. Earlier this month LIU JIEYI, director of the Chinese government's Taiwan Affairs Office, described "national reunification" — Beijing's shorthand for a Taiwan takeover — as an "inevitable requirement" of Xi's hawkish " national rejuvenation " policy. The U.S. relationship with Taiwan is spelled out in the U.S.-China Three Communiqués , the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and the 1982 Six Assurances . The TRA commits the U.S. "to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan." None of those documents specifically obligate the U.S. to military intervention to protect Taiwan in the face of a PRC invasion. But the TRA suggests an active U.S. role in maintaining the island's status quo. PLA power play. An intensifying Chinese campaign of military intimidation toward Taiwan is testing those commitments. " Routine transit " of U.S. naval forces through the Taiwan Strait has sparked Chinese accusations that the U.S. is " deliberately intensifying tensions ." Beijing backed that rhetoric last month by claiming the entirety of the Taiwan Strait as Chinese waters. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry dismissed that claim as a "distortion of international law," a position echoed by State Department spokesperson NED PRICE. "Our [Taiwan] policy has not changed, but unfortunately that does not seem to be true for the PRC," Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said last month . The Pentagon views Chinese saber-rattling with alarm. "The PRC is altering the status quo that has long served the region and in ways that have profound implications for our collective security," ELY RATNER, assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said Tuesday . Russia's Ukraine invasion has sharpened administration sensitivities toward China's Taiwan intentions. U.S. officials are pushing their Taiwanese counterparts to view Ukraine's success in fending off Russian forces as a blueprint for countering a Chinese attack by proposing arms sales geared to so-called asymmetric warfare. "It is unlikely that we will go back to any [earlier] status quo [because] the United States is quite alarmed about the growing threats to Taiwan," said BONNIE GLASER, Asia program director at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. "There is some validity to China's concern when they say that there is a gap between the actions of the United States and the language that we do not support Taiwan independence." Watch your language. Biden has asserted three times since August that the U.S. will militarily defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion attempt. Each time, aides have walked back comments that appear to reverse the longtime policy of " strategic ambiguity " regarding U.S. willingness to defend Taiwan. The State Department's removal of a U.S. disavowal of Taiwan independence from its Taiwan page in May reaped furious pushback from Beijing . State quietly re-inserted the statement — "we do not support Taiwan independence" — a month later. Such backpedals likely won't ease bilateral frictions. "It's blisteringly obvious that the U.S. and China are in an insecurity spiral over Taiwan. … The good old days when we didn't have to worry too much about Taiwan are behind us for good," said KHARIS TEMPLETON, research fellow at the Hoover Institution. The Trump formers factor. Former Trump-era senior government officials have complicated Biden's ability to reassure China about U.S. intentions. Former Secretary of State — and potential GOP presidential candidate in 2024 — MIKE POMPEO called in March for the U.S. to recognize the island "as a free and sovereign country," a position he repeated last month . "There were a lot of people, including within the Democratic Progressive Party, that didn't think that was such a great idea because one of [Beijing's] 'red lines' is [Taiwan] saying that 'Yes, we're an independent nation,'" said WILLIAM A. STANTON, former director of the American Institute in Taiwan and chair professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei. Former Secretary of Defense MARK ESPER wants a total overhaul of U.S. policy toward Taiwan. "I believe strategic ambiguity and the One-China Policy have run its course," Esper said Tuesday in an Atlantic Council briefing . Those sentiments resonate in Taiwan where a majority opposes unification with China and upwards of 72.5 percent of Taiwanese say they're willing to fight if China invades. "Chinese policy towards Taiwan is the primary cause of our current and long-standing crisis," said KUAN-TING CHEN , chief executive officer of the Taiwan NextGen Foundation, a Taipei-based think tank. "What can resolve this conflict quickly, directly, and peacefully, is a shift away from the aggressive and colonial intentions of Beijing towards a legitimate willingness to cooperate on issues of global concern." Congressional pile-on. Congress is narrowing Biden's ability to return to a status quo that may soothe Beijing's Taiwan hypersensitivities. Sen. BOB MENENDEZ ( D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will take up his Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 at the committee's next meeting on Wednesday, said JUAN PACHON, the committee's communications director. The bill will designate Taiwan a "Major Non-NATO Ally" and funnel almost $4.5 billion in security assistance to the island over the next four years. "The president needs to make clear his administration will defend Taiwan's sovereignty," Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.), senior SFRC member, said in a statement. On the House side, the Taiwan Peace and Stability Act , sponsored by Rep. AMI BERA (R-Calif.), chair of the subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia and Nonproliferation, has amendment status in the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. The TPSA requires the president to "report a whole-of-government strategy to enhance deterrence over a military conflict between China and Taiwan.' Those initiatives appeal to China observers frustrated by Beijing's Taiwan provocations. "The Chinese side always presents itself as blaming [the U.S.], saying, 'You're the ones who are rocking the boat' ignoring the fact that they are the ones who've been ratcheting up this pressure for the last six years," said AARON L. FRIEDBERG, former deputy assistant for National Security Affairs in the Office of the Vice President and professor of politics and international affairs at Princeton University. "I think we've been talking too much and not doing as much as we should be doing to strengthen Taiwan's defenses and our own defenses – those are the most important signals that we can send rather than verbal formulations or reassuring phone calls." TRANSLATING WASHINGTON — BIDEN EYES IN-PERSON XI MEETING: Biden aims to manage rising tensions over Taiwan, trade and a deadlocked bilateral diplomatic agenda in his call today with Xi, your host reported Tuesday . Administration officials will pitch the call as a deliverable-free follow-up to a series of communications between Biden and Xi that senior administration officials say are aimed to ensure competition "doesn't lead to conflict." Biden's main objective: insulate the latest eruption of Chinese rage over House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's planned trip to Taiwan from plans for a long-awaited in-person meeting between the two leaders in November. — SENATE PASSES CHINA-FOCUSED CHIPS BILL: The Senate on Wednesday voted 64-33 to approve a massive package of semiconductor manufacturing subsidies and scientific research funding known as the "chip plus science" bill, sending the legislation to the House for what Democratic leaders hope will be speedy passage, POLITICO's GAVIN BADE reported . The bill, in the works for almost two years, is intended to decrease U.S. reliance on computer chips manufactured in foreign countries, particularly China, and fund research into future scientific and technological advances to keep American industries competitive with Beijing and other foreign adversaries. — WHITE HOUSE DISSES TRUMP CHINA TARIFFS: The Biden administration has dismissed Trump-era China tariffs as a "shoddy deal" that has harmed U.S. interests, POLITICO's DOUG PALMER reported Tuesday . "We believe that they've increased costs of American families and small businesses … without actually addressing some of China's harmful trade practices," said JOHN KIRBY, a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council. — PORTMAN: CHINA SEEKING FED INFLUENCE: Sen. ROB. PORTMAN (R-Ohio) released a report on Tuesday alleging long-term Chinese government efforts to recruit Federal Reserve economists in a bid to gain influence over the central bank, POLITICO'S KATE DAVIDSON reported. Fed Chair JEROME POWELL expressed "strong concerns about assertions and implications'' about the report's findings. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson ZHAO LIJIAN on Wednesday dismissed Portman's allegations as "political disinformation."
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